QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

I agree that it is possible that the latch, had it not completely seated itself upon first being engaged in place, could have seated itself while the whole assembly was in motion while it was being put together and erected. However, I would argue that I have been witness to similar occurrences - in principle, at least - with real-world items. For instance:
And did you agree that it is more probable than the latch seated itself 2 minutes later in a supposed airless and ground vibration free (or close to) environment ? i do agree with this , because the up/down motions of the flag after being planted would play on friction , and this latch , ready to be seated helped by the motion of the flag up/down motion will probably 'counter' the friction that prevented him to be seated before that
, now don't get me wrong , i think your latch theory is more probable than the flagpole rotation one (by a large amount) but since this flagpole theory was for me close to zero (let's say 0.1% for the record) that's not hitting the required level to be considered a serious alternative im affraid , serious alternative should be obvious after being discovered at least , it can be hard to find but should really hold itself after that , your latch theory , even if it makes more sense than the flagpole rotation , still fail to be detached of extremly high 'luck' factor , or odds if you prefer , the first one being this double action latche wasn't seated in the first place , second the latch , not seated and 'freeze' by friction , didn't managed to seated itself while the flag was moving up and down after being planted , this up/down motion should have obviously played on friction and should have helped that latch to seated at this moment , 3rd luck factor , passing the most favorable moment to seated , the latch manage to do it when the flag is not moving anymore for about 1 good minute , and additional luck factor to this one , that's just the moment chosen by the astronaut to pass close by this flag , at the sensible part position , with the highest apparent speed of this flag-salute photoshoot scene , on top of this ,
the motion generated by this latches sealing itself should ne exactly like we could have expected to see if that flag was affect by a wind gust by this passing-by astronaut , that flag being not that soft by the way , it is proven by just looking at the video from 8 to 25 secondes , what can be the odds about this ? hard to tell , but just a guess , probably under 1% chance , can you still consider this probability (while more plausible than the flagpole rotation one) to be a serious alternative explanation ?
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

I have a tripod for my camera that has "latches" on the leg extensions. You open the latch, extend the leg, then close the latch to secure the leg in place. Now, it has not happened often - perhaps twice or three times in the three years that I have owned this tripod - but on rare occasion when I have closed the latch - the latch design is a simple plastic hinged cam, which holds the leg in place by friction - as I have done many times before, with what I assumed was sufficient force to seat the latch properly, only to find that some random period of time later, I hear a soft "click" come from the tripod leg, which upon investigation, leads me to find that the latch was not fully seated as I originally assumed, and over time, tension had overcome the friction in the device and it closed itself. On another occasion, I heard a soft "pop" and noticed (when the tripod began to sink on one side) that the tension in the latch had again overcome friction and unseated it self, causing the leg to collapse. Thankfully, it didn't fall over and my camera was unscathed. Certainly this is a rare occurrence and speaks more to the amount of attention I have paid (or not paid) when securing the latch than it does to the latch design. That said, however, the fact that it has happened, and more than once, gives me reason to believe that my "Latch Theory", while not definitive, certainly bears consideration as a valid theory.
Yes i can see this hapening , but a tripod is and camera probably weight more than this flag on a supposed 1/6th g environment , your leg extention will have to support the weight of these objet above them at 1g , you can have a car or truck that pass in the street and make vibration (or even wind gust) or just normal wind.
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

The latch theory and the flagpole rotation theory have something in common that, again, give reason to believe they are more plausible explanations than your "wind gust" theory: They do not rely upon any other situation or condition to be present that can be directly contradicted by the rest of the observed evidence presented. They do not rely upon there being an atmosphere present. They do not rely upon there being a heavier gravity field present. These two theories can be proven to happen independently of the environmental conditions.
Again this flagpole rotation theory don't hold 5 seconds of observation , the gravity is supposed to be 1/6th of earth , friction will be the same but clearly not a lot of friction was needed to hold that flag before 2'37" right ? same thing than for your latch theory , this rotation would have certainly have betters odds occuring when the flag pole moved after being insterted , yet he managed to rotate abruptly by a small amount (so unseen) and stop abruptly as well , while pulled by a ridiculous 1/6th g force , after being on a visually complete standstill for at least 1 minute , and managing to have the same luck (odds) factors than your latches theory in the process.
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

Your theory, for it to be true, MUST take place in an environment that is directly contradicted by the observed and independently verified and accepted evidence of a 1/6th gravity vacuum environment. In your theory, there MUST be air or some kind of atmosphere present for it to be factual. Since it has been proven through the observable evidence that the astronauts are in a 1/6th gravity vacuum environment, then your theory MUST by definition be enlarged in scope and complexity to include a rationalization as to how those environmental conditions were achieved or simulated on Earth.
It hasn't been proved in this scene , this flag exhibit a motion not compatible with lack of atmosphere , at least when taking the most obvious and probable possibility , the wind gust one.
Simulating 1/6th g on earth while not any single 1/6th g performance have been observed in the whole apollo missions would be perfectly possible slowing down the video is one of the option , adding some counter-balance device helping the astronaut having an apparent lighter gravity is another one , if we except what ? oh yes , the hammer and feather experiment , that was sold as the perfect proof of them being in a vacuum , just in case anyone have a doubt maybe ?
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

Latch Slip or Flagpole Rotation theory - only require the presence of friction and tension, or friction and gravity, respectively.
And amazing odds to yeld the result seen on this video , the amazing odds are not playing for these theory (and certainly not for the flagpole rotation one).
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

Wind Gust theory - requires that the entire sequence of events be simulated in some kind of environment where the effects of gravity and presence of vacuum can be simulated to the point that it is believable enough to convince - or fool - experts around the world. This in itself requires that some form of technology exists - or be created - that can achieve this simulation on a scale large enough to reproduce effectively and convincingly the surface of the Moon in sufficient area as to allow the free movement of the astronauts through the range of distances they are seen to be covered on foot and by the LRV.
I agree , it require a believable 1/6th g apparent motion , and for the vacuum in this scene at least , the effect was missed (make it intentionally or not) , the slowing down of video coupled with a device that act like a counter weight for the astronauts can very well look believable 1/6th g , even more believable if these video are seen 'live' on all the big networks , believable don't mean that it is really what's happening , some actors can be believable in their rôle , and of course you know that you're looking a fiction , so you know that's not true , but what if you don't know that you are looking a fiction ?
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

Which is the simpler solution?
One of the two possibilities that rely solely on well understood basic principles inherent to our physical universe - friction, tension, gravity - and a small bit of coincidental timing?
Or the one that relies on a massive scale conspiracy, secret technology, massive "sound stages" capable of holding a vacuum and simulating 1/6th gravity, 400,000+ people being "in on" the conspiracy to some degree without ONE legitimately believable person coming forward (with verifiable evidence) to expose their role - however minor - in said conspiracy, continual deception and cover-up on a global scale for nearly 40 years, over 40 if you go all the way back to the original birth of the Apollo program, and all this on a budget that at its height, was only 4% of the US budget (1966, NASA's highest budgetary allotment, $5.93 billion, equivalent to roughly $30 billion today), and totaled, at most, less than $30 billion spread out over roughly 10 years?
The simplest solution is clearly , the wind gust one , all the orther ones failling on incredible low probaility due to 'luck' factors .
This coincidental is not small it is huge , i doubt anyone can contradict that this whole friction,tension,gravity astronaut passing timing and observed motion (all of this being filmed) is huge and not small coincidental.
I don't think anyone said that they have huge sound stages capable of holding a vacuum , and i personally don't say such ridiculous thing , even it it's posible in theory (once agains no good odds), look at this very video , and you will see that it was not in a vacuum whatever being on earth or anywhere else , saying that 400.000+ peoples where "in on" don't make much sense as well , a conspiracy would involve mostly high placed peoples , certainly not 400.000 + peoples , there wouldn't be one single person that the public would see as legitimately believable , because such person would be totally discredited as soon as possible (to be believable he would have to work on the project for sure) the high ranked individuals where probably all 'in' they just have common interest , all the others that where eventually 'knowing something' and might have wanted to spread the world about it , would just have to be ridiculized , marginalized (or worst) , it would be a classical "who do you believe , the mans that got to the moon , or some secondary [insert relevant job related one way or another to the apollo missions] guy ?" put in minority , im certain that a lot of peoples wanted to speak about this , but the years passes , everyone don't care , and they wouldn't want to 'risk' to be put on ban for the rest of their life , with little chances to successfully manage to stay alive if they where really 'dangerous' for the high ranked criminals behind the fraud .
QUOTE (Czero 101 @ Jan 6 2008, 09:37 AM)

Now, in the end, we may never be able to prove who is right. But in the absence of absolute proof, we have to look at the plausibility of the presented theories and how seamlessly they can be integrated into the observed evidence. I think if you put aside your preconceived "bias" and look at the options presented here - yours, mine and MID's - with an open mind, even for just as long as it takes you to read this post, you might start to see that the simpler solutions are closer to being correct than the ones that get more and more convoluted the deeper you look into them.
Cz
Open mind don't mean taking every single possibility to be equal when they are certainly not , your latche theory is far better than the flagpole rotation one , and still didn't manage to convince me as a serious alternative theory to the more obvious (by a very large margin IMO) and clear , wind gust , and for example in your open mind , did you manage to take into account the possibility that thise apollo 15 missions (at least) was faked (and then enabling the possibility of the wind gust that you seems to have eliminated for 1/6th g apparent motion) ? i don't ask you if this possibility would be equal in your mind , just if you can at least imagine this , i have the feeling that you can't , no offense there , just a question.