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Caesius
Is Space Colonization in the Next 100-200 Years Realistic?

As a lifelong fan of science fiction, I have dreamed of space travel my whole life. Of living in space, traveling to remote planets, drinking Tang. As an adult, I came to view the science fiction tales as complete fantasy. And not just because I realized I’d never sleep with a green Orion slave woman.

Perhaps the seed for this negative view was first planted as I constantly found myself exposed to stories that take place in “the future” of the 1990’s, etc. I remember when I was ten-years-old, I used to wonder what my life will be like in the year 2001 (well, that and how I could get Rae Lynn Grawny to like me). Being but ten-years-old, I thought it would at least be a future that included Moonbase Alpha. Or at worst, I’d need to find Sanctuary before I turned 30. I do not have a completely negative view -- I consider the technological advancements made, and I find myself, from time to time, marveling at some of the devices we now consider commonplace. But when I think of space travel, and I look at what we’d accomplished in the late 60’s and early 70’s, I can’t help but feel we lost the momentum born of those achievements. As a result, I've become terribly disheartened. I admit we’ve made incredible advances in science and medicine. But when I think of the possibility…or what I view as the reality of what it will take to place humanity among the stars, I just don’t see it happening. Not in my lifetime, and perhaps not even in the next 100 years. I feel it is so impractical as to be like a broken pencil…pointless. In the first 100 years of what I’ll call “routine space travel,” I suspect travel will still be limited to the scientific elite, and not the common man. Not Humanity in general…Which is more to the point of what I’m trying to discuss here. And to bring the usual film comparison to bear (though not a perfect comparison), I don’t even see humanity living and working in space at the technological level seen in the 1981 film Outland, not for a thousand years or more…again, if at all.
[Naturally, to point out the advances in computers since the film has been made misses the point of what I’m trying to discuss.]

Do I feel it is possible that mankind will go to space and actually colonize in the next 100 years? Let’s just say, “I hope so.” To keep this thread relatively pure, I won’t even get into the details of the world politics that I feel would (and perhaps should) keep us here, before we consider colonization. But, as I understand it, humanity will have to come up with some serious breakthroughs in power/fuel (among innumerable other areas that I am not even remotely knowledgeable in).

That’s how I see it. Mind you, I am not an astrophysicist. Nor am I a professional ist of any kind. Anywizzle, if you feel mankind will go to space and colonize (more specifically, in the next 100 years), I’d appreciate reading your hopeful (and hopefully realistic) reasons why. Of course I invite anyone else to discuss any portion of this thread.


[I’m also hoping to avoid discussing the reasons why we must go to space, unless it seems to help prove that we will.]
Zareste
Ahaha, one might say it's the reason we got here to begin with
Wickian
I'm confident that space colonization will be realistic within my lifetime(I'm 20). Will we be able to reach distant stars(not actually reach them but have the technology to get there in a reasonable amount of time) within the next 200 years? I have no idea, it all depends on the growth of space/fuel technologies.
Caesius
QUOTE (Wickian @ Jan 2 2008, 11:19 PM) *
I'm confident that space colonization will be realistic within my lifetime(I'm 20). Will we be able to reach distant stars(not actually reach them but have the technology to get there in a reasonable amount of time) within the next 200 years? I have no idea, it all depends on the growth of space/fuel technologies.


I appreciate your taking the time to provide your view on this Wikian, truly. I am confused because you say it will happen in your lifetime, and then it seems like you are not sure by the end of your comment. Regardless, I may need to clarify the issue. My concern being, the more realistically I look at this, the less likely it seems. Humans barely have the technology to live in the extreme environments here on Earth. The cost and sheer magnitude of building in those environments (again, here on Earth) is staggering.

I realize this is a terribly simplistic analogy, but imagine living in a cabin in the woods in the middle of nowhere...unable to reach anyone (which still happens in 2008 during certain weather conditions). Even though you are on Earth, it would prove to be a struggle to survive. And you have infinitely more advantages here on Earth with natural resources such as water, air, food to grow or hunt. We are talking about going to places where there is nothing but what we take with us…Including oxygen. Also, there will likely be psychological effects of being stuck indoors forever. Even going outside will require remaining contained in a suit. And what about the physiological effects of different planetary gravities? It isn’t like you can call your parents and come home.

Basically, most people I talk to don't seem to understand how many trips to a given planet (forget about another star) will have to take place before it would even be considered "relatively" safe. We're not just going to hop on a space bus and zip to Mars. Plus, as noted above, there will need to be some considerable assistance from Earth. And all of the “what if’s” we can think of will have to be dealt with. If even one of them has a critical impact on us, once discovered and understood, it might require a revolution in technology to deal with that particular problem.

At the end of my initial post I said how we needn't discuss "why" we need to go, but now I'm thinking it is critical. The only thing that pushed us to explore and move forward to undiscovered lands and colonize was to discover a new resource and exploit it. Commerce. I just don't see that pushing us as a race out to space. At best, a company might go. Like a oil rig on the ocean.
crystal sage
You must take in account man's ego... boredom... sense of adventure...searching for the next 'big thing'...

There's a good chance that the average 'bloke' would be 'out there' Mars... the Moon... with in 50 years... colonization... cheap one way tickets... apprenticeships... army type incentives.. choices of jail or a stint at working at helping set up a new world.....(Think Botany Bay how England sent convicts to Australia a couple of hundred years ago to help establish a new country...

There are courses available already at Universities..like Space Architecture...

http://www.sicsa.uh.edu/

Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture (SICSA) is a unique research, design and teaching entity that supports the world’s only MS-Space Architecture program.


http://www.space.com/peopleinterviews/spac...cts_001117.html


,,of course there's the mining potential...

http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2005/09/68739


I don't know what the delays are...what they are nervous about... they keep going on about costs... But wouldn't good marketing strategies help subsidise most of the costs involved???

a new toy range.... selling the story... reality shows... a fashion line... t.shirts... movies...???

What's the hold up????

I'm sure certain corporations who see the money potential will get sick of the delays..and take it over themselves... offering better salary packages... enticing the talent ....
QUOTE
Hoteliers already have plans for holidays.. with a difference....
Hotels in Space
President, Hilton Hotels Corporation
Barron Hilton

http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/hotels_in_space.shtml

The present thinking in the Hilton organization on the possibility of an orbiting hotel is described, followed by an outline of how a Lunar Hilton might be designed. Suggestions from a feasibility study of a lunar hotel prepared by a group students in Cornell University's School of Hotel Administration are discussed. Whereas the Orbiter Hilton would be free in space, the Lunar Hilton would be located below the moon's surface and include about 100 guest rooms.



QUOTE
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/22/magazines/...otels/index.htm
Vacations in outer space
Has the holiday chaos got you thinking about the perfect winter getaway? Before long the trip of your dreams might just be thousands of miles above you.


Bob Bigelow, the 60-year-old owner of the Budget Suites of America hotel chain and a reclusive innovator who exhibits almost a childish glee. He can afford to: Budget Suites pays the bills and then some, enabling Bigelow to spend $500 million on a pet project called Bigelow Aerospace. The venture's slogan is "Getting you excited again about space."
An $8 million escape to space

crystal sage


QUOTE
http://www.space.com/peopleinterviews/khalili_profile.html
NASA has shown renewed interest in Khalili's experiments this year. Dr. Lewis Peach, former director of NASA's Advanced Project for Human Space Flight, was asked by NASA to visit Khalili at Cal-Earth to consider the lunar prototype and the viability of "space block" structures in space.

"Space blocks" are made from fiber tubes or long sandbags filled with soil and stacked to form arches, domes and vaults. Between the rows, lengths of barbed wire, or even Velcro, are stretched to prevent the bags from shifting in relation to each other.

Peach, who remains very much involved with NASA's Mars Human Space Flight project, as well as Robotics programs, said he "sees the use of indigenous resources in space as really compelling because it allows humans to sustain a presence on Mars for a long term without taking from Earth."

He believes Khalili's style of architecture is a nice fit for NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" credo. "If you don't have to take all of the materials with you, and you can use habitat for radiation shielding, it will bring costs way down and make long-term habitation more feasible," he said.




QUOTE
http://groups.msn.com/SpaceColonizationCom...ID_Message=4984

Farming on the moon...


Illumination during the two-week long lunar night will be produced by microwave sulfur lamps with flexible fiber optic light-pipes that direct the light to the places where it is needed most. Light will not simply be scattered all over the place to be absorbed by the stone walls. Sulfur lamps will provide light in the visible range with very little infrared or ultraviolet. These revolutionary light sources can produce 95 lumens per watt.1 Incandescents yeild only 20 lumens per watt and fluorescents give 50 lumens per watt. Sulfur lamps don't even have electrodes to burn out!
In 1925, A Text-Book of Physics suggested that night time street lighting required less than one lumen per square foot. The average living room only a few lumens per square foot. Offices and classrooms needed 5 to 10 lumens per square foot. Workplaces where fine handicrafts, engraving, sewing or drafting were being done needed 10 to 20 lumens per square foot.2 Today, we find values of 75 foot-candles ( one ft. candle= one lumen/sq. ft. or 10 lux) for reading and office work, 50 ft. c. for machine operation and 50-300 ft. c for bench work.3 The noon-day Sun gives off 10,000 lumens per square foot at Earth's surface! Plants need more light than humans and animals do, but not this much. Many plants only need 200 lumens per square foot for good growth! The small tropical Chinese Evergreen plant, Aglaonema modestum, only needs 100 lumens per square foot ( same thing as 100 foot candles) and can get by on as little as 10 lumens per sq. foot.4 The Bamboo Plant, Chamaedorea erumpens, requires just 100 to 150 foot candles. The coffee plant, coffee arabica , a necessity for us groggy old lunar prospectors and rich travelers, needs 150 to 1,000 lumens per square foot.5 Tomatoes, sweet peas and everbearing strawberries need 1500-2000 foot candles and cucumbers require 4000 foot candles.6

Although we can generate the electricity needed to furnish the crops with light, there are many other strategies to make lunar farming successful. It has been found that plants can be grown for two weeks at a time in sunlight and then put into "suspended animation" in darkness by refrigerating them for two weeks at a time. By doing this, some crops can be raised with no artificial light or power drain at all.7 Mushrooms can be raised in the dark. Three pounds of edible fungi per square foot of garden space can be harvested every fifteen weeks.8 Algae like Spirulina can be cultivated during the lunar day. Since blue-green algae can double its mass four times a day, in five days 100 grams of algae could reach a mass of 100 metric tons if it has enough water tank volume, minerals and carbon dioxide. It is therefore possible to grow enough algae while free sunlight is available during the lunar day to feed livestock throughout the month. Fish can eat algae. Goats and pigs will eat anything. Alage is actually very nutritious, high in protein, minerals and vitamins. Chickens might eat pellets of algae. Mushrooms could feed the animals to. Moon dirt could be mixed with algae and mushrooms, allowed to rot and form a rich compost, and earthworms could be farmed in the rich dirt. Chickens and fish will eat chopped worms. Livestock won't need more than a few lumens per square foot to see. Fungi and worms won't need any light and algae only needs to grow by day. Clearly, a lunar diet rich in fish, chicken, eggs, pork, goat meat, goat's milk, cheese, butter and cream can be produced without artificially illuminated crops at all! Eggs and liver are rich in vitamin A, so nobody will die due to a lack of carrots. Meat has plenty of B-complex. Milk contains vitamin D or people can just sunbathe for 10-20 minutes a day. Some vitamins C and E are still desired, and so is some fiber. Some wheat for whole wheat bread and dough, tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce, grapes, strawberries, cucumbers and pumpkins can be grown with sulfur lamp illumination by night or by using the nightime refrigerating technique, which will not require any heavy machinery; we will simply turn off the heat in the garden chambers and let them cool down.

A diet heavy on meat, fish and dairy products consumed during a two-week vacation on the Moon will not irreparably damage anybody's coronary arteries. Hotel workers, miners and scientists spending a couple of years on the Moon won't die of heart disease either if they stay fit. Fish, chicken and lean goat chops might be preferable to lots of eggs, heavy cream and bacon for the health conscious Lunans.

The Moon will never support billions of people like the Earth does or Mars could after centuries of terraforming, but it doesn't have to. Millions of miners, scientists, workers and tourists who are the life blood of the Moon can be supported by the underground farms in lava tubes and man-made tunnels that will someday be planted in the Moon. Eventually, craters will be domed over with giant bi-layer silicone bubbles with five meter thick water shields for radiation protection.9 Fusion powerplants will supply electricity for the sulfur lamps and the resources of near Earth asteroids will be utilized. Subway tunnels will interconnect the domed craters. The Moon will become a fantastic playground and a jewel for all citizens of Earth, like the Great American West today.
crystal sage
.. Future 'Martians' Could Live in Caves

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sola...ves_000321.html
QUOTE
But caves don't need to be hauled Mars-ward, proponents point out. And caves could provide protection against the harsh radiation there, which occurs because the thin atmosphere barely filters the sun. Some researchers have speculated that martian caves might hold stores of water ice.

A martian biosphere

Frederick goes further than some proponents of cave dwelling by suggesting that a translucent, inflatable balloon could be used to seal openings while still allowing light in. Settlers might then fill the cave with oxygen. Add a little water and an entire ecosystem might be possible.

"In some way it could be seen as a very primal experience," Frederick says. "Leaving the womb of Mother Earth to live within Mars. And perhaps help Mars become another Earth."
Caesius
QUOTE (crystal sage @ Jan 3 2008, 02:48 PM) *
-=lots of stuff (see above)=-


What a fantastic amount of information! Thanks for providing all of that Crystal...really! Great stuff!



dest_titor1
I see humanity reaching mars by the year 2109 tongue.gif.

And faster than light travel I predict will come in 2400`s.

Though whatch out, I am a super genius! (well an IQ of 130 and yet to go to college), I may find super matter and a way to use it to frame drag a ship forward! (One of my favorite possible space transportation systems I came up with) ( I don`t put the horse on the front of the cart nor the back but to the sides!)
seffy
I don't see Man getting anywhere in our Solar System until we stop being so dependent on money. While the sole driving force behind our lives is money and greed, we will constantly hold ourselves back for fear of 'losing'. The real kicker is, with the wealth of minerals and natural resources out there, whoever does go will make an absolute fortune. But that doesn't really matter to those with the money. If they can't see any definite returns for their investment, they won't risk it. We won't be going anywhere until we can get past this insatiable need for wealth.
Caesius
QUOTE (seffy @ Jan 4 2008, 08:12 PM) *
I don't see Man getting anywhere in our Solar System until we stop being so dependent on money.

That is such an excellent point. I hadn't considered the relative value of the cost. I was considering it in terms of how it is viewed now. While I would ideally prefer we address the needs of Earth before pouring resources into the wild black yonder, taking the concept of "money" out of the equation radically changes things. It may be an idealistic and perhaps even unrealistic possibility, but I find it a really interesting concept. It makes me want to sit and do that thing...that thinking thing people do. In fact, I'm going to do just that...maybe even naked...just like the sculpture.
seffy
I'm glad I can inspire you. I'm just not sure about the form such inspiration has taken. tongue.gif
Caesius
QUOTE (seffy @ Jan 5 2008, 07:50 PM) *
I'm just not sure about the form such inspiration has taken. tongue.gif


Yeah..I seem to get that a lot. hmm.gif
harmonica
If we ever make it far enough to colonize other worlds, at least we will know how to 'heat them up'.

To make Mars livable for humans, I have heard it would take 300-500+ years.
Ghost Ship
If Europa is found to have life in it's oceans then that will be the sign that Earthlings must move on from thier world. It will be the only thing powerful enough to motivate mankind enough to move off of Earth. I believe that life will be found elswere in the solar system then on Mars but it will be Mars that mankind will colonize first. From were we go after Mars is anyones guess.
dest_titor1
QUOTE (Dark_Ambience @ Jan 10 2008, 01:05 PM) *
If Europa is found to have life in it's oceans then that will be the sign that Earthlings must move on from thier world. It will be the only thing powerful enough to motivate mankind enough to move off of Earth. I believe that life will be found elswere in the solar system then on Mars but it will be Mars that mankind will colonize first. From were we go after Mars is anyones guess.


Let the sweet fresh breezes heal me
As they rove around the girth
Of our lovely mother planet
Of the cool, green hills of Earth.

We rot in the molds of Venus,
We retch at her tainted breath.
Foul are her flooded jungles,
Crawling with unclean death.

[ --- the harsh bright soil of Luna ---
--- Saturn's rainbow rings ---
--- the frozen night of Titan --- ]

We've tried each spinning space mote
And reckoned its true worth:
Take us back again to the homes of men
On the cool, green hills of Earth.

The arching sky is calling
Spacemen back to their trade.
ALL HANDS! STAND BY! FREE FALLING!
And the lights below us fade.

Out ride the sons of Terra,
Far drives the thundering jet,
Up leaps a race of Earthmen,
Out, far, and onward yet ---

We pray for one last landing
On the globe that gave us birth;
Let us rest our eyes on the fleecy skies
And the cool, green hills of Earth.

-- Robert A. Heinlein

True, their is no place like Earth...
dest_titor1
QUOTE (seffy @ Jan 5 2008, 02:12 AM) *
I don't see Man getting anywhere in our Solar System until we stop being so dependent on money. While the sole driving force behind our lives is money and greed, we will constantly hold ourselves back for fear of 'losing'. The real kicker is, with the wealth of minerals and natural resources out there, whoever does go will make an absolute fortune. But that doesn't really matter to those with the money. If they can't see any definite returns for their investment, they won't risk it. We won't be going anywhere until we can get past this insatiable need for wealth.


Well, if we can develop a proper space drive it would certainly help.
PryOpenUr3rdEye
The way I view it, is that there will be no desire to colonize another planet unless there is money to be made by doing so. It would be the gigantic corporations that would fund a colonization/terraforming project, providing the research and the raw materials to do it. If the corporations see no profit margin, we are screwed. Although if they discover gold or some other precious metal, that would be the driving force to colonize another planet and reap the benefits. So it boils down to humanity's greed and lust for money. We can't thrive as a civilization if we put dollar bills before fellow humans.
dest_titor1
QUOTE (PryOpenUr3rdEye @ Jan 18 2008, 09:36 PM) *
The way I view it, is that there will be no desire to colonize another planet unless there is money to be made by doing so. It would be the gigantic corporations that would fund a colonization/terraforming project, providing the research and the raw materials to do it. If the corporations see no profit margin, we are screwed. Although if they discover gold or some other precious metal, that would be the driving force to colonize another planet and reap the benefits. So it boils down to humanity's greed and lust for money. We can't thrive as a civilization if we put dollar bills before fellow humans.



I recall during the colonization of America (the new world) was originally lead by government, for new places to store criminals, and to displace the major European population.
The nation of Earth may have to do the same.

QUOTE (Dark_Ambience @ Jan 10 2008, 01:05 PM) *
If Europa is found to have life in it's oceans then that will be the sign that Earthlings must move on from thier world. It will be the only thing powerful enough to motivate mankind enough to move off of Earth. I believe that life will be found elswere in the solar system then on Mars but it will be Mars that mankind will colonize first. From were we go after Mars is anyones guess.

Quote

I guess we will use Mars and a trampoline to the Jovian system, or to the Saturn system, ware I would truly love to colonize.
harmonica
Sure our solar system is large, but for potential life forms, it is TINY.

The chance of life being on another planet or moon in our system is almost impossibly small.
Cherus
QUOTE (dest_titor1 @ Jan 17 2008, 08:02 PM) *
Well, if we can develop a proper space drive it would certainly help.

Ill help you...i have many interests to getting to far away stars..
tongue.gif
bee
QUOTE (Caesius @ Jan 3 2008, 04:09 AM) *
[That’s how I see it. Mind you, I am not an astrophysicist. Nor am I a professional ist of any kind. Anywizzle, if you feel mankind will go to space and colonize (more specifically, in the next 100 years), I’d appreciate reading your hopeful (and hopefully realistic) reasons why. Of course I invite anyone else to discuss any portion of this thread.


I love that word.....anywizzle.....and the look of your posts...(I've messed the style up now by chopping it up)...
is kind of old fashioned...like an old newspaper....

Anywizzle... original.gif ....I don't think we will be physically colonizing space in the next 100 years....but perhaps...we might
'go places' via other dimensions.

Perhaps there will be a way to induce, by request, a lucid dream type experience.
We might leave the old bod somewhere safe and travel the universe (or solar system) more
or less at will.

Like....'group trip to Mars' next week....nice comfortable bed for body on earth.

Inter-Dimensional Travel Exploration .....the best holiday ever....no heavy luggage, no food expenses....
etc etc......OK...I'm getting carried away now... rolleyes.gif


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