link: (forward to Jan. 29, 2008)

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1


borrowed from and posted at:

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/bbs/repl...p;quote=7547418

( I want to know what any astronomers here think of this)



Asteroid 2007 TU24 has NASA concerned. A former colleague of mine is now a contract worker for NASA who develops and maintains the software applications for the Solar System Dynamic simulator and other NASA applications. He called me last night to inform me that NASA has there full focus and attention on this asteroid. All software applications support staff have been directed to devote their time specifically to running solutions on this Near Earth Object. They are running solutions with different inputs and the results are so close to direct impact that NASA has decided not to update the online simulator with these results. When you look at the current solution online the last orbit determination parameter is from January 1, 2008. This data is 11 days old.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1

11 day old data for an object that has been getting closer and closer to us in each successive run is not normal protocol. Normal procedure would have the solutions posted online every two to three days at the beginning of the 30 day window which was December 29, 2007. As the window of time shrinks the data is refreshed with more frequency. The lack of refreshing the data online is suspicious and should raise some eyebrows amongst those who have intimate knowledge of how the astral community operates.

My friend, who I cannot identify, because of security issues told me that NASA is about 50/50 as to whether this asteroid will impact Earth. The dynamic variable that is in play is whether or not Earths gravity will pull the asteroid in. The trajectory angle that the asteroid is approaching from is the southern hemisphere. The solutions currently show numerous scenarios impacting Earth. The solutions that favor a Southern hemisphere impact are the most serious. These solutions are a direct straight on impact. The Northern hemisphere solutions vary widely from because there is the likelihood that the asteroid will fragment as it traverses Earths atmosphere. There is no possible way of knowing with 100% certainty how much this object will fragment if the Northern hemisphere solution pans out. The solutions that have this NEO missing Earth have it passing perilously close to satellites in orbit and the International Space Station.

This is a very fluid situation that literally changes by the minute. NASA is keeping a tight lip on the situation as they do not know with certainty what will transpire.

.0045 Astronomical Units = 673 191 kilometers seems kind of far away to be concerned though.

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/CloseApp.html readings getting closer...

...this is just getting too bizzare:


If this TU24 does hit, anywhere, it will set off just about every earthquake fault in the World.

remember this !



From what I have read on the internet about it. It may not even have to hit the earth to set off earthquakes.

All it will have to do is penetrate the magnetosphere, which it is scheduled to do.



Currently the tracking method is radar.
A quarter mile chunk of nickel-iron which has high magnetic properties would certainly cause electromagnetic interference.

I would think that depending on this objects gravitational pull, may determine what damage it can do. Does NASA tracking take into consideration the gravity of a NEO? I mean how do they measure the gravity of a NEO? Is it possible that this asteroid is a highly magnetized remnant of a neutron star? And what if it does penetrate the magnetosphere? Too many what ifs...I hope it steers clear.

I guess next tuesday could be interesting...

further follow up...

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Dangerous.html

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/css/css_sss_newdisc.html

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/n...s:2007TU24;main


Asteroid 2007 TU24 is now calculated to be 27% closer to the orbital path of the Earth.

the MOID for TU24 is now 0.00098 AU instead of .00124995 AU. This means that the asteroid is calculated to reach a distance of 146,000km of Earth's orbital path.

But wait! This page claims a distance of .00096 AU. (This website is the Catalina Sky Survey, the astronomers who discovered the asteroid.)

But here's the thing...

They already know what the Earth's orbit is going to be. Obviously, they don't know that much about TU24. How could they possibly change the MOID but keep the same miss distance? Are they saying the asteroid will be 27% closer to our orbital path than previously calculated but somehow maintain the same speed and distance as in previous calculations?

What will the next update say?
http://www.tu24.org/forums/index.php?showt...0&#entry147



VIDEO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Y6L9-VmK8



and this:
...gee I hope this guy is wrong.

http://www.tu24.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=77

Another asteroid, another conspiracy theory. It seems that every time one of these objects is detected we get the same, "the end is nigh," "NASA are liars" nonsense.

Without doubt one of these objects will hit us one day, but that day isn't this month.

dcman you are making mountains out of molehills. You are making a huge thing about minor discrpencies in the calculated miss distance but seem to be ignoring the single must important thing that all the calculations agree on... MISS.

Lets just hope the batteries are charged up on all those calculators being used to work out the calculations

First, I want to go on record to say that I truly hope this thing flies on by without a mishap.


Update on 2007TU24:
http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/goldsto...d_schedule.html


2008 Jan 23 2007 TU24 Yes Yes Scheduled. Extremely strong target. Also scheduled at Arecibo. (emphasis theirs)

Orbital and Physical Characteristics
orbit type Apollo
semimajor axis 2.010 AU
eccentricity 0.529
inclination 5.8°
perihelion distance 0.947 AU
aphelion distance 3.073 AU
absolute magnitude (H) 20.1
diameter 300 meters +- a factor of two
rotation period unknown
pole direction unknown
lightcurve amplitude unknown
spectral class unknown


http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/2007TU2...24planning.html

Heh, this is getting amusing. So asteroid impacts are conspiracy theories now? Are there any other facts you's like to reveal as conspiracy theories?

Actually it is NASA that has marked asteroid 2007TU24 as "extremely urgent/Extremely strong target." (emphasis theirs), even though this may be a near miss, will it effect Earth's magnetosphere and cause plasma discharge, due to its composition?

What is it's composition?
How will that effect Earth's magnetosphere?


It is indeed significant because it's the closest known approach to Earth of any known asteroid until about 20 years from now. Of course it's important, even urgent, for astronomers and other scientists.

It's not going to get any closer that about 350,000 miles (maybe 1 1/2 lunar distances) on 1-29-08 at about 08:33 UTC, and will be unnoticable to most everyone, being that it's visual magnitude is only in the 17 range at closest approach. The Moon itself, a body that dwarfs this asteroid, is continually passing about 30% closer to us than this asteroid will...and it doesn't cause plasma discharges or anything like that.


This asteroid, although a real close approach in cosmic terms, will be unobserved and completely un-noticed by humanity at large.
It's important...to the people who study these things! Not to anyone else.

These things have been around since before the dawn of man. It's just because we have the capability of actually observing them that people tend to place so much emphasis on them.

If this thing was going to cause massive devestation to Earth, NASA and other space agencies would have already launched intercept probes to alter its course. Also tenguska? from the video you linked wasnt a plasma discharge, the thing entered our atmosphere and blew up a few kms above the surface before impact. Its common knowledge that explosives are more effective when detonated in the air.

he isn't saying that asteroids impacts are conspiracy theories. he's saying that they are making a big fuss about discovering an asteroid and will probably hit us within months or weeks or years.

Actually I think he's speaking to the fuss over a near Earth asteroid which is NOT projected to hit us in months or weeks or years. In fact, there's no projection of such an event with this asteroid. It will be farther away from us over it's next several encounters...

Sadly not. At the moment there is no such ability. This is why the threat of asteroid impact needs to be taken seriously. However the scaremongering which occurs every time a small body makes a close approach to the arth is detremental and prevents people taking the reality seriously.

Well, there won't be another close encounter like this one for 20 or so years, unless one sneaks up on us. On another note, I remember reading an article about establishing a permanent base on the moon for the purpose of some sort of planetary defence asteroid deflection program.

The MOID update as of 1-19-2008, from JPL, is .0012501 AU.

I see some different intersect numbers. But, the majority point to an asteroid intersect distance of >10 Earth radii, which is positive. In fact, the numbers point to a distance approximation of 87 Earth radii.

553362 km intersect min. / 6300 km = ~87 Earth radii

Why hasn't the general public been informed

Oh gosh, another "we are going to get blasted" topic. Do you actually realise the distance in which this asteroid will pass the Earth?

The gravitorial path and the distance this object is will prevent it's orbit from intercepting into our own.

Also as MID has mentioned, this object has no real reason to cause a disturbance in the magnetosphere, not only the Moon, but the Sun sends us huge blasts of radiation periodically that could swallow the whole Earth , that's where auroras come from.

This huge "blast" of energy distort the magnetosphere, they are like a hammer hit on the head of a nail (which would be the magnetosphere).




The magnetosphere behaves as a huge shield, it withstands this high energy emissions from the Sun, yet can you really believe a rock is going to disturb it?

Because no-ones concerned about this asteroid having the slightest effect on Earth, NASA isnt even concerned

It will fly past at a distance of appox 600,000 kms and therefore isnt even a concern for our Moon

It might also be pertinent to note that if the general public HADN'T been informed, this thread wouldn't exist...

These low-resolution radar images of asteroid 2007 TU24 were taken over a few hours by the Goldstone Solar System Radar Telescope in California's Mojave Desert. Image resolution is approximately 20-meters per pixel. Next week, the plan is to have a combination of several telescopes provide higher resolution images.


Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., have obtained the first images of asteroid 2007 TU24 using high-resolution radar data. The data indicate the asteroid is somewhat asymmetrical in shape, with a diameter roughly 250 meters (800 feet) in size. Asteroid 2007 TU24 will pass within 1.4 lunar distances, or 538,000 kilometers (334,000 miles), of Earth on Jan. 29 at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time).

"With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week's 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century," said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project


Asteroid 2007 TU24 was discovered by the NASA-sponsored Catalina Sky Survey on Oct. 11, 2007. The first radar detection of the asteroid was acquired on Jan. 23 using the Goldstone 70-meter (230-foot) antenna. The Goldstone antenna is part of NASA's Deep Space Network Goldstone station in Southern California's Mojave Desert. Goldstone's 70-meter diameter (230-foot) antenna is capable of tracking a spacecraft traveling more than 16 billion kilometers (10 billion miles) from Earth.

The surface of the 70-meter reflector must remain accurate within a fraction of the signal wavelength, meaning that the precision across the 3,850-square-meter (41,400-square-foot) surface is maintained within one centimeter (0.4 inch).

Ostro and his team plan further radar observations of asteroid 2007 TU24 using the National Science Foundation's Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico on Jan. 27-28 and Feb. 1-4.

The asteroid will reach an approximate apparent magnitude 10.3 on Jan. 29-30 before quickly becoming fainter as it moves farther from Earth. On that night, the asteroid will be observable in dark and clear skies through amateur telescopes with apertures of at least 7.6 centimeters (three inches). An object with a magnitude of 10.3 is about 50 times fainter than an object just visible to the naked eye in a clear, dark sky.

JPL


Looks to be on the small side of estimates...

Anyone know why the woo-woos have picked THIS particular rock to stress and moan about, when similar things happen every year or two?

I don't know why they the woo-woo's picked this asteroid to be concerned about but they did. Maybe it has to deal with the size of this asteroid. Which is huge. I did the math yesterday in chat and came to the realization that if you took 334,000-239,228=94,772. So if the moon is 239,228 miles away from the earth and this asteroid is 334,000 miles away from the earth when it passes by then yes, chances are high that we will be fine. Hey if a few earthquakes hasn't turned califorians into chicken's yet then a few earthquakes will be fine. my biggest cocern is not the earth itself but, the moon. for this thing won't even be that far from the moon. Now that's a scary thought. Our tides revolve on the moon. If the moon is close then the pull is stronger and causes either the high tide and the low tide and when the moon isn't that close then the gravitational pull isn't that strong then there isn't any tides. hence in the mornings we have low tide and at night we have high tide. Now what would happen if the moon got destroyed will besides the tide problem we would have alot of other catastrophic problems as well. But, hey that's just a nightmare that isn't going to happen. Now Mars being hit by this asteroid well that is a possibility and if it happens then I believe that NASA will be able to come up with a quick answer as to how to fix that problem. So let's let them do their job and let us not worry until we actually need to.

I am kind of fearful now, but I am confident nothing will happen to us.

This rock is less than ONE BILLIONTH the mass of the moon - actually more like less than one 10 billionth. it is not going to have any effect on it even if it did pass within 100,000 miles of it.

You're also not considering the fact that the moon is HIGHLY unlikely to be right "below" the asteroid as it passes - it is likely to be far more than 94,772 miles away, even up to twice its orbital radius away. I haven't seen a figure that shows where the moon will be at closest approach, but it is safe to assume it won't be at the closest possible distance.

In addition, the plane of the asteroid's orbit is not the same as the plane of the moon - closest approach probably won't be in the plane of the moon's orbit.

This is a TOTAL non-event, with the gravitational effects of this rock on the earth/moon system negligable to nondetectable. There is precisely ZERO reason to fuss over it.

Also, the asteroid that had a chance of hitting mars (further measurements have shown it actually won't) is a different asteroid.

Obviously you do not realise the size of this asteroid.....

An asteroid altering the magnetosphere, nonesense!

This asteroid has been registered to have an exceedingly large 'plasma tail.' The earth's magnetosphere protects us from any debris by opposite polarization, but I don't know about the force that is put out by the asteroid cutting a path through space. The approach of the asteroid and the actual fly-by will have no effect. Maybe some psychological effects because of the content of this asteroid pulling on the magnetosphere, but it is after it passes. If the sun has been flaring toward the earth, it could effect the magnetosphere such that chunks in the tail of the asteroid could enter the atmosphere and start hitting people on the head or on the shoulders if the ozone layer does not reduce their size enough to be spitballs. But then the ozone layer is disappearing . . . OH NO!

You know how many asteroids have any plasma tail at all, right?



The Earth's magnetosphere isn't going to protect us from any significant debris.

There is no force put out by an asteroid cutting a path through space...since space is nothing, basically. The thing is simply moving in an orbit, like our planet is, and everything else in space is.



There...you DO understand.




I take that back.
Psychological effects...? Because of an asteroid pulling on the magnetosphere???





Please...please tell me this is a tongue-in-cheek post...


Please...

Severe affects are being noted on the magnetosphere...you can view real time:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/



The Latest Image





Plasma Temperature and Density at Geostationary Orbit and AE Index



Recent Pressure Images (20 minitus interval)


01/28/2008 22:22:39 UT

01/28/2008 22:02:29 UT

01/28/2008 21:42:09 UT

01/28/2008 21:21:55 UT

01/28/2008 21:02:23 UT

01/28/2008 20:42:04 UT


Recent Images (15 minutes interval)

http://kogma.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/geomag-vie...ubmit=ViewImage

Is there a chance that you know what you're looking at here?


Are you attempting to relate these typical images of the Earth's magnetic field via NICT Simulation technology using inputs from the ACE satellite relating to solar wind and magnetosheric data---to the asteroid???

I hope not.

Want to see it coming? :

http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/attachm...mp;d=1201310612

Mother of god, dcman, was it absolutely necessary to quote the entirety of your previous post just to add another link??

The "Edit" button exists for a reason, you know...

Also... you do realize that the earth's Magnetosphere extends roughly 50,000 to 100,000 miles from Earth, yet the asteroid will be roughly 600,000 to 700,000 miles away? If the magnetosphere were that easily influenced by such a small object, then by that logic, the influence of the Moon should have far far greater effects on it (which, of course, it doesn't).


Cz

That was a good answer to my question.

To answer your's:


I will not see it coming, haven't seen it coming, don't have anything close to the equipment necessary to see it coming, and won't see it going either. In fact, I, as most of the other 6 billion folks on this planet, won't ever know it was anywhere close by.
Astronomers, with sufficient instruments will, however, and at this moment, are looking, measuring, and collecting reams of data. They will use this data to refine the orbital plots of this near-Earth object, and hopefully to gain some more insight into its composition and characteristics...all interesting stuff to the astronomer, who is very excited right now, and rightly so. Frankly, I am excited for them.

There is nothing else significant about this asteroid. Just as the average Joe has no idea that what you posted about heliospheric data is irrelevant to the asteroid's passage, the average Joe will have little interest in the fact that it was ever around.

It's already a done deal.

However, there are only about 7 hours left until closest approach. It's time for tin-foil hats and stowing away in your bomb shelters. The world is about to endure vast and widespread psychological effects due to the magnetospheric disruptions!

Pressure is off the charts.






http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/r...80129020257.jpg

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/r...ages/sorbit.jpg

um....is that normal?? if you check out the charts from 24 hours ago...well, it doesn't look like that. freakyyy....

I would just suggest that all this recent data is within normal limits, and the Sun remains fairly quiet, while the magnetosphere is it's usual self.

There may be an aurora this time of year, in the frozen North. I would not know how to check, but I presume they always see something like the Northern Lights.
Not unusual.

The Sun and normal magnetosphere fluxes account for the activity of Earth's near space.

Every day or two, some material reaches escape velocity from the solar corona. No big deal. And, it may come directly toward us, or simply catch us in an outgoing halo effect, which can still cause flux readings in space monitoring satellites.

No big deal. In my immediate opinion.

Not to sound weird or mean or whatever but I don't understand any of this crap. I mean what are you trying to do? Are you trying to say that Doomsday is going to start early and last all the way up to Dec 21, 2012 or are you trying to give everyone a headache with all this data. Keep It Simple Stupid, as I've always heard. Besides, there's always meteors and what not going by Earth all the time. So who cares what one rock is going to do? 9 out of 10 most guessers are wrong. It's the one's that you never goes or count on striking that always hit. Remember it's not the one with your name on it. It's the round addressed "To Whom It May Concern" that you've got to worry about.

thanks for the clarification. i've been following this for a week, and its been a very educational (and at times, nerve-wracking) experience. way too much hype, IMHO, but it is exciting.

So I guess we can take that we're not all dead as a good sign...?

Yeah, it's 'The End Of The World'...and I feel fine!

There has never been an issue that this thing would fly on by; the issue was, what if anything would be its affect on our magnetosphere. Notice the charts I posted above and in particular the spikes in pressure (off the chart)...this is the exact same time that TU24 was passing us. Coincidence? ...perhaps. Has anyone been experiencing any strange weather where you are?

I think I didn't leave this clear last time. Dcman don't be ridicoulous.


Do you actually know what you are talking about? Everything is not based on charts you find on a website, you must actually know what this is about. And you really don't. An example is not knowing if it's coincidence or not.....I hope you can figure it out yourself.


Oh for goodness sake, don't be ridiculous dear man.

An asteroid this size and at such distance cannot have any effects on our magnetosphere, our magnetosphere is holding a lot worse daily, for example from the sun and The Moon.


Do I have to make another long post explaining every single point to make this clear?



Nothing will happen, the object will just pass as if nothing happened, it will not impact, it will not cause any disturbance.

I do not think that any magnetic disturbance will cause strange weather. What would cause the strange weather is the temperature and the currents of the water and wind. The magnetosphere that surrounds our earth is like a transistor that causes the ionic particles blown from the sun to be slowed down so we can survive. If we did not haved the magnetosphere, we would be another mercury. Back during the Civil War, the sun blurped a little and blew our magnetosphere back onto itself and it did cause some heat, but the disruption of our magnetosphere by an asteroid would do nothing outside of our heads. It will be like a full moon night. Watch what happens when the sun sets around you today. It is closer today than yesterday or the week before and notice what has happened before today. There will be more of it. It is a psychological thing. It will affect your psyche. You have your own personal magnetism.

If the moon were to have any amount of magnetism, which I don't think it does, it would have been sucked into the earth a long time ago. All of the discussions about what happens when the moon is full with abnormal animal behaviour, more violent crime, etc. is the moon's effect on the magnetosphere. Other than that, the moon is a dead planet.

Do you actually know what you are talking about?

dc...

You have a profound tendency not to answer a question.
You post things that even you don't understand.


It is now a moot point, don't you think?


It's been almost 16 hours since doomsday and well...?

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index.php?smp=&lang=eng

http://www.globalincidentmap.com/home.php

Typical day on the globe.
But I guess we could just blame it on the asteroid. May as well not disappoint, typical nations of blame and not one of taking responsibility.

arent we suppose to be dead by now or something?