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Unexplained Mysteries Discussion Forums > Science > Space and Astronomy
clem
not sure if its been posted lately.. but its comin up quick here so i thought id post a link.
jan 30 asteroid
i know its been recently (a week ago-ish?) changed from 1:75 chance to 1:25 chance.
clem
Czero 101
Seems like JPL has been able to get a better fix on where 2007 WD5 is going to be on Jan. 30:

From http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-152
QUOTE
Astronomers Rule Out Possibility of Asteroid Impact on Mars
January 11, 2008

Updated Jan 9, 2008 – As expected, scientists at JPL's Near-Earth Object Office have further refined the trajectory estimate for asteroid 2007 WD5 and ruled out any possibility of a Mars impact on Jan. 30. The latest trajectory plot of the asteroid was made possible by adding to previously obtained data some new data from a round of observations acquired by three observatories on the evenings of Jan. 5 through 8. Based on this latest analysis, the odds for the asteroid impacting Mars on Jan. 30 are 0.0 percent. The latest observations come from the German-Spanish Astronomical Center, Calar Alto, Spain; the Multi-Mirror Telescope, Mt. Hopkins, Ariz.; and the University of Hawaii telescope, Mauna Kea, Hawaii.


And from http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
QUOTE
2007 WD5 Mars Collision Effectively Ruled Out - Impact Odds Now 1 in 10,000
January 9, 2008

Since our last update, we have received numerous tracking measurements of asteroid 2007 WD5 from four different observatories. These new data have led to a significant reduction in the position uncertainties during the asteroid's close approach to Mars on Jan. 30, 2008. As a result, the impact probability has dropped dramatically, to approximately 0.01% or 1 in 10,000 odds, effectively ruling out the possible collision with Mars.


Would've been kinda cool, though, to see an asteroid impact with as much detail as we'd have with all the observational platforms on and around Mars.


Cz

EDITED to fix a broken url...
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