Hi Firemoon,
You raise a very good question, indeed, and as we don't know what really lies behind the Belgian sightings and the radar data, I obviously can't offer you
the explanation. I can only explain how a plasma could behave in this context.
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Surely a metal sphere does not react to RADAR waves? Not in the sense that a RADAR contact can elicit a vectorial response from it?
That is correct on a macroscopic level, which is what we care about here.
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If Plasma does react, there should be a formula that it is possible to extrapolate from the mountains of data that now exist.
Both yes and no. Ideally we should, however, such a phenomena is basically a study in applied chaos theory and extracting the required is an overly complex task.
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How for instance, do you explain that plasma doesn't seem to react at all to a ground based RADAR but the when a Fighter locks on it It waits an indeterminate time then scoots off? I know differing RADARs work on differing bands but surely the actual composition of the RADAR wave is made up of the same components, just in a differing length of pulse?
What i am trying to confirm is this. A 10cm RADAR array and a 4cm RADAR array use exactly the same pulses but at a different interval? There is no actual difference in the physical make up of the differing pulses , just their length?
This is a very complex question, but I will do my best to explain what I think is going on. Radars working on different bands most certainly can yield different reactions depending on the composition of the plasma at hand, however, I do not
believe that had any major say in this matter.
What really comes into play are time constants and energy delivered. When directing a beam of energy (laser, radar waves) at a plasma some of it will be absorbed thus creating a charge difference across the volumes. The higher this charge difference is, the more pronounced the reaction can be. For instance if the surrounding air is slightly charged as well, the charge difference across the plasma can propel it along some unpredictable trajectory.
So why did it react differently depending on the radar type and mode?! It can actually be explained rather logically. When a charge is building up locally on a plasma, it will be distributed over the whole volume and the distribution of energy has some time constant associated with it. So when hit with a radar pulse, this energy will thus be spread to the whole plasma after some time. This is especially true when considering the ground based radar and also the F-16s radar in search mode. Since you are scanning a large volume of the sky, you really only "paint" the plasma relatively rarely. That means that for each radar pulse, there is ample time to distribute its energy so there won't be any significant, localized charge build-up.
This completely changes when the F-16 pilot shifts to STT mode. Here you now concentrate on your target and in essence fling all your radar pulses at the plasma. In this case it is easy to imagine that the repetition rate of the incident radar pulses is smaller than the charge distribution time of the plasma, thus when a radar pulse hits the energy from the previous hasn't quite been distributed yet and it can result in a significant localized charge build-up and the longer in this mode, the higher it gets. And that can certainly yield a reaction when sufficient energy has been delivered.
To find an analogy, imagine a bucket with a hole in it (plasma). This hole has a size so when you pour a cup of water (radar pulse) into the bucket every 10s, the leakage rate is higher than the fill rate. That is the radar in search mode (you are basically pouring your cups of water all over the place and only once in a while into the bucket). When changing to STT mode, you now concentrate on the bucket and pour all the water into the bucket, resulting in a cup of water added, say, every second. Now the leakage rate can be imagined to be smaller than the fill rate and thus at some point you will get a reaction (spill).
The above will be dependent on a whole host of different parameters and we cannot even begin to quantify those without much better knowledge about the phenomena at hand. But we do know that charge distribution and dissipation time constants can easily be on the order of micro-seconds to milli-seconds, thus definitely in the parameter space defined by the radars in question.
Is this what we are seeing?! I have no idea, but it is certainly a reasonble assertion that it could be what is happening.
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If that is so, that brings us back to the evidence would seem to show. Ground based RADAR lock ons produce no particular response from these objects but Airborne ones do. Unless you are saying that this is absolute and utter coincidence. You then are saying that, for over 40 years, of recorded contacts there were numerous coincidences that the moment an airborne RADAR locked onto one of these plasmas it just happened to react?
I hope the above illustrates that I certainly do not subscribe to the idea that it is utter coincidence

I
believe (again, without being able to scientifically examine the plasma, we can't conclude anything at all) we saw a reaction to the radar beams directed at whatever it was and I think the difference in reaction was due to the difference in energy per unit time directed at whatever the phenomena now was in the various radar modes.
Just my two cents
Cheers,
Badeskov
Edited for grammar and typos.