Rolci,
Apologies again for letting the conversation slip! You made an interesting post, and I decided to give it some thought - and then forgot to come back to it!
QUOTE (Rolci @ May 4 2008, 12:47 PM)

However, I reserve the right to stay in the belief of the "infinite memory capacity" theory. Hard to explain why. I am well aware that we do have a finite, limited number of neurons, and (however phenomenally and mind-bogglingly high,) a finite number of possible meaningful and practically functional connections among them. But I struggle with the idea that if we had the same memory capacity but lived significantly longer - say 500 years or more as some of our ancient ancestors mentioned in the Bible allegedly did - then after a while our memory would become full and if we had to memorise something new, something less important piece of data would have to be further compressed or - when this is not possible to any further degree - deleted. What if we lived 5000 years? 50.000? What is the upper limit? A simple example. What if all we had to memorise would be people's names and there were an infinite number of people all with different names, or even some with the same, doesn't really matter does it. So the task would be to associate names with faces or voices or personalities, whatever. After how many memorised units would we have to forget somebody's name in order to remember one more? What would it feel like to have a brain filled with info "to the brim"? I know I don't have a sound basis to believe that memory capacity is infinite and that me simply not wanting to accept it can be full is not good enough of an argument. But I am willing to listen to contrary arguments or any scientific facts I might be unaware of.
I found your views interesting, I have been ticking them over - I also saw that article you linked to with the 'woman who can't forget', and immediately thought of this thread.
There have been attempts to estimate the memory capacity of the human brain, and these have all (as far as I know) taken one of two approaches, neither of which is perfect. The first sort attempts to extrapolate actual physical memory capacity based on e.g. number of neurons or synapses, and attempts to calculate maximum capacity based on the number of 'bits' of information each would be able to handle; estimates here have ranged between about one and 10 terabytes. The problem, of course, is that this would be an absolute top-end estimate,
if the entire storage capacity of the brain was used to its fullest extent (100% efficiency is extremely rare in biology), and
if those synapses aren't being used for other things (which, of course, they are). The second sort tries to measure how much information we actually take in and store, and argued that in our entire lives we were likely to remember around 120 megabytes of information. The problem here would be that this measures the amount of information we probably
do take in, rather than
can take in.
Overall, though, neither estimate is
that high, considering both are possible to obtain on a computer (the very top end, just about). A general problem, of course, is that the encoding principles of memory just aren't understood; indeed, the mechanisms of consciousness generally in the brain are so little understood that Roger Penrose can argue that unknown laws of physics are at work in our brains, and that neurons are not the most important mechanism, and the academic world has to entertain the possibility. So all we can do is make a best guess, really.
But maybe we could think about what memory is
like - such introspection isn't exactly scientific, but we might find a rule of thumb. Consider a random, fairly neutral, memory from childhood. I've got one of my own. I'm picturing where I was, what I was doing; the colours are quite washed out, the details hazy. All in all, a pretty crappy recording. I can ask myself questions - who else was there? What shoes was I wearing? And I can't answer them. The information just isn't there. More emotional memories tend to be somewhat sharper, but as Neisser found, even these 'flashbulb' memories aren't particularly reliable for that extra information. I would say that, although I have perhaps thousands of such memories, each one might be equivalent in terms of the information stored to a 2 minute YouTube video. More recent memories of course contain more detail, but they too will fade over time. Not very pleasant to admit that everything I am, my entire ego, is stored in such a shoddy way (and I don't even have back ups in case I break or get stolen!), but there we are.
So how to explain the 'woman who never forgets'? I can't, obviously. Some people's brains do seem to be wired up in an extraordinary ways - consider also the autistic savant, who may be able to pluck eight-digit prime numbers from the air, or play note-perfectly a piano concerto heared once twenty years ago. But to look a little more closely at Mrs Price's story, clearly she has a disorder; but is it really a perfect memory? It certainly seems to her that it is; but the only way it's been tested (as mentioned in the Times article) was by comparing her recall to her diary entries. Now, perfect recall of diary entries is incredible, especially years afterwards, but the recorded information they tested her against can't amount to more than a few megabytes (the amount of memory it would take to type those entries and save them in, say, Notepad). I think it would take a video camera study to test her memory 'problem' more thoroughly. But I don't mean to overdo the scepticism there! It may be as it appears, I can't say. But still this wouldn't indicate 'infinite', just 'larger or more efficient than normal', if we're dealing with 'normal' memories of between 100Mb and 10Tb.
In terms of what it would feel like to have a 'full' memory, I doubt we'd notice very easily - I'd suspect that, given the state of some of my longer term memories anyway, a fuller memory would simply degrade them more. What at the moment is a slightly fuzzy and incomplete trip to the zoo with my cousins, with highlights clearer (the gorillas, the gift shop, and the Orthodox Jews), might be reduced to a vague impression that I had first encountered people in unusual religious dress at a young age, and that I have, at some point, seen a gorilla. I don't think this compression/loss would result in a major change to my sense of self, and at any rate would be so gradual that any such change would be unnoticeable anyway.
It's an interesting subject, and I'd love to know what you think to that stream-of-consciousness, Rolci!
The next part of your post, I'm afraid I have to disagree with in rather more certain terms.
QUOTE
A bit more esoteric question, or you could consider it religious, new age or whatever you fancy. However consciousness appeared in our species all of a sudden resulting in an evolutionary jump unprecedented in its nature and significance
Did it? How do you know that? There are arguments that a particular type of consciousness 'awoke' (to use a misleading term) with modern humanity, coinciding with the 'explosion of culture' (e.g. Stephen Mithen's 'cognitive archaeology'), but even proponents of this idea would argue that there are gradients of consciousness, and that it was not a 'critical mass' moment. Evolved faculties very rarely do simply 'turn on', since they usually have to arrive very gradually with each successive adaptation more useful than the last.
QUOTE
is it absolutely impossible that we are on the verge of a paradigm shift, a leap in the nature of human consciousness, an outburst in collective human spiritual evolution of some sort, as it is believed by some as one of the theories as regards what 2012 might bring if anything at all?
Hmmm... not impossible, but I would have to say that there is no reason to think there
is. I think that to explain what I mean I have to pick up on what may be a misunderstanding of the nature of human evolution running through your post.
QUOTE
Why would it be logical to believe that after life becoming more and more complex throughout billions of years accelerating towards the end with mankind emerging approximately 2 million years ago with human consciousness popping out of nothing, now all of a sudden all this has come to a halt? I'm sure we can all agree that this would be an illogical view. As would be it to believe that any further evolution would be of physical nature like smaller nose and bigger eyes, whatever.
Evolution isn't intrinically a move from 'simple' to 'complex'; it is an adaptation to environment. If a simple organism is better to occupy an ecological niche that a complex one, then that organism will be simple. Take the amoeba: a 'simple', unicellular creature, showing remarkable success in that it exists in many places on Earth, and has done in some form for billions of years. It makes no sense to say that humans - complex creatures - are 'more evolved' than these simple things - simply that one has evolved to occupy one environment, and the other has evolved to suit its own environment.
Evolution will continue apace, but it's not going 'to' anywhere - it's a simple case of, as I outlined in my first post in this thread, genes being more or less likely to survive in the genetic and ecological environment they find themselves in. And although such evolution is blind, it is anything but random - humans will not evolve, to take your example, smaller noses,
unless there is a survival advantage to do so - or in other words, the 'small nose' gene(s) confer an advantage upon its/their survival machine which means that they will be proliferated through a population more efficiently than the rival 'big nose' genes. Smaller noses may randomly appear in individuals, but unless they endow an increased ability for the organism sporting the new smaller nose to reproduce, they will not replace enough of their rival genes to become ubiquitous in a species.
Human consciousness is just the same as a smaller nose. It has conferred an advantage to us, probably something to do with 'executive function' over autonomic processes, the ability to simulate events rather than have to use trial and error, and the awareness of past and future events. However, the question of 'where to now' is extremely difficult to answer for a number of reasons.
First, there is the question of
possibility. Although it is likely to be advantageous to evolve, say, the ability to affect matter through thought alone, it is unlikely to actually be physically be possible to do so (probably for the main reason that there is no known thought 'substance' which could achieve this - thought is a computational process, not a 'thing' which could physically interact with the environment).
Second, there is the requirement that each step towards a faculty must also confer a survival/reproduction advantage - so for instance, a laser gun to replace the human little finger might be a good survival mechanism - but each step towards that - beginning with, say, the hardening of the little finger, then the hollowing out of its middle, then the evolution of a lens, then a light emitter, then an internal array of mirrors, etc. - must also bring its own cumulative advantages, or else it simply becomes a white elephant and is 'selected out' of the population again.
Third, a evolved characteristic must achieve equilibrium within a population - for example, deception. The ability to deceive another member of one's species brings an advantage, which means that before long, a population is overrun with the 'deception' gene; but a whole population of deceivers is not evolutionarily stable, since the gene for 'deceit detection' soon spreads equally quickly among the population. Ultimately an equilibrium is reached, in that particular case, with an optimum ratio of 'deceit' and 'deceit detection' genes settling into a population. Would a given new characteristic be capable of achieving equilibrium? A 'pacifism' gene, which causes its carrier to always avoid conflict in every case, may initially spread because it causes the carrier to survive by running away a lot; but may never achieve equilibrium because its carriers always have to give up their resources which otherwise would have been defended, thereby losing other survival advantages; and a gene in non-pacifists for 'running after pacifists' may result in their extinction.
Fourth, a cost-benefit ration would also need to be considered - is an adaptation, however useful, too expensive to really be of use? As I mentioned before, consciousness requires increased brain volume, which is quite a resource-intensive thing to run. Would 'more consciousness' (if the concept were not hopelessly crude) be too expensive to allow its carrier to reap the advantages, or would that organism have to eat for 20 hours a day to build and fuel the increased cerebral architecture?
These are all extremely difficult questions to find an answer to for any given case in the real, very complicated, world, making prediction of the 'next step' all but impossible.
QUOTE
If I look at the past 2 million years only, at human evolution, I, again, see an accelerated rate of "evolution". Evolution in intelligence and spiritualism, the emergence AND sophistication of emotions, culture, intelligence, creativity, taste, etc.
I can see why this is what you see; but it may be an illusion based on the fact that
we are humans, and so our own evolutionary history seems somehow more important than that of other species which have evolved alongside us - chimpanzees, dogs, viruses. The evolution of all these things is part of human development over the past couple of million years, as you say, but other animals have also evolved different characteristics over that same time period. As seen above, trying to divine 'directionality' in evolutionary development is a non-starter, because it's not going 'to' anywhere. If we have spent ten million years evolving an opposable thumb, it does not follow that we'll spend the next ten million evolving an opposable big toe; similarly, the evolution of empathy does not foreshadow the evolution of telepathy. Straight trend lines only work backwards in evolution, not forwards.
QUOTE
My point is that considering that physical evolution has taken billions of years to get to the level of humans, intellectual evolution taken millions of years, social and cultural evolution thousands of years and technological development rocketing in the past few decades, is it impossible that IF a next step in human evolution can be predicted it be within a few years?
Perhaps the best way to answer this would be to differentiate biological evolution from other possibly evolving phenomena such as human culture. Whilst humans have biologically evolved the ability (if that's the right term) to develop culture, that actual cultural development is distinct from the evolution of the ability to have it, if you see what I mean. Whilst evolutionary models of culture have been developed, such as the still-controversial idea of the 'meme', it is not a gene-driven process, and takes place in a very different timescale. As you point out, human culture has developed, in a mostly cumulative fashion, for thousands of years, and the part of culture we now call technology has skyrocketed in hundreds, even tens, of years; but this is not biological evolution, and cannot be assumed even to conform to the same principles. Biological evolution does take a very, very long time, with little progress being detectable over tens of thousands of years. Cultural change takes place much more quickly, but any benefit to humans is in the way we use our biology, rather than in changing that biology itself - a bit like the software/hardware distinction.
The 'next step in human evolution' therefore, though we may indeed be (actually, must be) still evolving, is not going to happen 'in the next few years'. Biological evolution still takes place over geological timescales, and the speed of our cultural transformation is another kettle of fish (with or without legs) entirely. Who knows where culture will go in the next few years - I speculate that it's every bit as unpredictable as biological evolution - but wherever it's going, it's not going to give us new brain parts, super powers or gills. We might invent all of these things, certainly, but they cannot then be said to have evolved.
I do often wonder if we could get any inkling of our evolutionary future, even speculatively; here's all I can come up with, and it is, despite the above observations, tied up with culture and technology, though not in the way you mean. I'm also not sure if I've mentioned it before in this thread, so apologies if I'm repeating myself.
In recent years, human technology has enabled us to divorce sex from reproduction. The invention of contraception is a cultural innovation which impacts on the main driving mechanism of evolution! If this technology survives, along with our present culture which has invented and perpetuated it, there
will be effects which come from this, which
will affect the evolution of the human race. But how? Well, let's think. Evolution takes place via the principle of the survival of the fittest - the fittest, that is, to reproduce. At present, those who use contraception responsibly are not reproducing, or are only reproducing a
bit - one or two children is now the 'norm', and none at all is far from unusual. These are the people whose genes will not be spreading rapidly: the genes for forward-planning, resource gathering, sensible and 'respectable', in current terms, living. Who
does reproduce? The same people who are 'irresponsible' with sex and contraception; those people who are more impulsive, less given to considered action, who begin to have sex earlier and less fussily. These and other related characteristics will be those which spread, therefore; and these are, to take our criteria from earlier, possible; confer immediate advantage; not too resource-intensive; and can probably quite quickly reach equilibrium, because so far as I can see the competing characteristics are reproductively inferior.
So perhaps there will be a human evolutionary shift in the next few thousand years; but I somehow doubt it'll be the noble, cerebral, tie-dyed paradise which new agers have in mind!