TAIPEI (Reuters) - President Chen Shui-bian could lose Taiwan's closely fought presidential election this month by a nose.
With a prediction based on Chen's small nose, fortune teller Fan Yun dismissed the Taiwan leader's chances of winning a second term in the March 20 presidential election.
For Fan, the future is written all over Chen's face, an important measure of an individual's fortune in Chinese society.
"The size of a leader's nose has a direct relation to the fortunes of the country they lead," said Fan, who mans one of the many small fortune-telling booths that line a pedestrian underpass near the Hsin Tien Temple in Taipei.
"Everything about Chen's face is small and that's why the last four years have been so bad," she said, referring to the economic downturn that hit the island's economy a year after Chen swept to office in 2000.
Never mind the fact that Chen's face was graced with the same nose when he trounced his opponent, Lien Chan of the Nationalist party, four years ago.
The Chinese zodiac sees Lien's fortune on the rise while Chen's luck is dimming this year, said soothsayers.
While some dismiss fortune tellers as shady merchants peddling concocted visions to the gullible, many of Taiwan's 23 million people swear by them and consult the stars on everything from investments to careers to marriage and even vacation plans.
Regardless of whether the stars are lined up against him, Chen faces a tough battle to win a second term after four years plagued by policy reversals, frosty relations with arch-foe China and a sharp economic recession in 2001.
The two candidates are running a close race with many voters still undecided on an island where election turnout is traditionally high.
MONKEY YEAR
Born in 1950, the Year of the Tiger in the Chinese zodiac, Chen will not gain much help from the heavens in 2004. This is the Year of the Monkey, which usually spells difficulties for tigers, say the fortune tellers.
"On March 20, Chen's luck will flow like the Yellow River, dirty and unclear," said Joe Lee, who sits at a small fold-up table in the underpass, reading from the astrological chart he has drawn up for the president.
"Chen's term as president will end on that day," said Lee, who said he had accurately predicted the date on which the United States launched its strike on Iraq (news - web sites) last year.
The Chinese zodiac has a 12-year cycle with each year denoted by a different animal, each with particular characteristics and fortunes.
The Year of the Monkey is a favorable year for Lien, who was born in the Year of the Rat in 1936, fortune tellers say. In Chinese astrology, the monkey is best friends with the rat, inspiring courage and making for a dynamic union, whereas its strong-willed personality clashes with the short-tempered tiger.
The stars were already helping the Nationalist candidate -- often viewed as stiff and out of touch with common people -- to improve his style of oratory and to inspire voters, they say.
"This year should bring him much money, which in Chinese astrology can also mean wood. Wood is used to fuel the fires of fortune and will elevate him to a position of power," said Lee.
"In the last election Lien's luck was at a trough so any idiot could have beaten him," he said.
In the 2000 polls, Lien only managed to gain 23 percent of the vote while Chen came in first with 39 percent.
COMPLEXION GOOD
while some may blame his nose, other fortune tellers said a Chen victory should not be ruled out.
"To gauge a person's fortune, you have to look at their complexion and Chen's appears very bright as you can see from his ruddy cheeks," said Cheng Wen-kuei, a fortune teller who said he has been in the business for more than 20 years.
Lien's complexion was less glowing and fortune teller Cheng foresaw not only bad luck but also a lack of confidence that could give Chen an edge.
Four years ago, Lien was also defeated in the three-horse race by James Soong, who was expelled from the Nationalist Party for launching a maverick bid for the presidency that split the vote.
This time, Soong is Lien's running mate but Lee said the People First Party chairman was only biding his time.
"Soong must have definitely consulted an astrologer before making his decision to run with Lien," said Joe Lee.
"When I read his chart, it can be seen that before the age of 67 he won't have the luck that could lift him into the spotlight," said Lee. But after 67 everything could change.
When Soong passes that birthday in four years -- coinciding with the next presidential election -- his luck will rise to awesome levels and he will want all power for himself, said Lee.