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UM-Bot
user posted imageThe inimitable Private Fraser of Dad’s Army encapsulated the Malthusian doctrine to grim comic effect when he suggested an end to civilisation as he knew it. He was not the first - or the last - to oil the wheels of the doomsday machine. For it seems that if humans cannot have Apocalypse Now! we can have Apocalypse When? From Nostradamus’s suggestion of global calamity, occasioned by the arrival on Earth of Satan (confidently, but erroneously, predicted for 1999) we believe the end is nigh. The 16th-century French astrologer - and drug abuser - wrote of the end of the world in Quatrain 74, which related to events in July 1999. Somehow, however, we survived. But, no matter where we are in history, it is an age of anxiety, and our fears have grown exponentially over the past half- century. From the Cold War to the latest prognostication that we will soon go the way of Atlantis, we embrace the threat of calamity. The psychologist Dr Jack Boyle believes that, as a species, we need to latch on to worst-case scenarios because "medium-case" bore us. "We likes extremes," he said, and added: "Because it is removed from our experience. "The majority of people exhibit safe and cautious behaviour. Titillating news sells. Doomsday stories are an extension, an enjoyment of extremes which fascinate. "The truth is, though, that few historical forecasts come true." Our fascination with doom-laden situations that do not materialise is exemplified by Thomas Malthus, the 18th- century social thinker. His calamity of choice was starvation, and his views were shared by Charles Darwin, the author of Origin of Species. Malthus predicted global famine and suggested, somewhat controversially, that war, poverty and disease were useful means of population control. He said the population grew "geometrically" while resources increased "arithmetically". The result would be starvation. But the theory did not take into account that improving technology would dramatically increase our ability to create resources.

Even 200 years on, modern Malthusians were still espousing the theory. In the Sixties, Paul Ehrlich, the author of Population Bomb, and Lester Brown, the founder of the Worldwatch Institute, predicted that the "dramatic consequences" of our "throwaway lifestyle" were only a McDonald’s carton away. In 1968, Ehrlich said food shortages in India would kill 200 million people by 1980. In fact, by 1980, India was exporting surplus grain to Russia. It would be easy to dismiss Ehrlich and company, but their concerns were genuinely based on their knowledge - and an ancient human fear of disaster.

user posted image View: Full Article | Source: The Scotsman
Ozmeister
Problem is.....an asteroid impact is a very real threat which could come at any time. However, in any given year, the probability of a large impact occuring is small, but greater than your chances of being killed in an aircraft accident. Unlike the other scenarios and predictions listed, it has a very real chance of occuring and if it's a large impact, well, the devestation would be horrendous. But, whilst this is the case and we should be concerned, there's no need to fuss over it.

The prediction of oil running out......I'd see that more as a blessing than a catastrophe for the human race. It's about time we moved away from this ridiculous dependence on oil for fuel and such, and if it runs out by 2043 (at present consumption rates) then well and good. However, we should get away from it earlier than that. The only catastrophe I foresee here will be for the people who own the big multinational oil companies.....ie. the individuals and families tied up in the business (and those who support them). Too bad for them their cash cow will disappear.
Starlyte
QUOTE
Problem is.....an asteroid impact is a very real threat which could come at any time. However, in any given year, the probability of a large impact occuring is small, but greater than your chances of being killed in an aircraft accident. Unlike the other scenarios and predictions listed, it has a very real chance of occuring and if it's a large impact, well, the devestation would be horrendous. But, whilst this is the case and we should be concerned, there's no need to fuss over it.


This was my thought while I was reading the article. If an asteroid was on a collision course with Earth, 1.) When would the world be notified? and 2.) What could anyone do about it? I know that space programs such as NASA are trying to come up with ways to deflect or get rid of an asteroid heading this way, but would they be ready? Would it be NASA that would try to divert the asteroid or would it be a world-wide effort? Hmmm....
Ozmeister
The world would be notified as soon as it became clear that the object was going to impact with the planet, for certain. Hopefully, that would be clear to astronomers when the asteroid was at least a year or two out. What could be done about it would be entirely upto the preparations that were already in place.....given the readiness that has been typified by this planet in the last 10 years or so, we'd be hard pressed to do anything about it. Launching ICBM's at it would be a waste of time. Most don't have the thrust to get much higher than high-suborbital altitudes and their trajectories are ballistic anyway, which is no good for aiming at an approaching asteroid.

At present it's a case of turning on the "bend over and kiss your butt goodbye" sign.
GeneralBender
[FONT=Geneva][COLOR=orange]if we are going to "deflect rolleyes.gif " an astroid, we wont be able to do it alone, maybe a WASA would do it... dontgetit.gif
saucy
By the time the oil runs out, if it actually does and nobody really knows how much oil is down there, we will probably be using other sources as fuel. As for are we doomed? Of course we are. We're all gonna die sooner or later and most of us before we're really ready. Who really makes it to eighty anymore anyway? Don't be worried about when it's time to go because when it's time, there's nothing you can do to stop it.
stillcrazy
Are we doomed?

I hope so, and the sooner the better. thumbsup.gif

I think it's a natures way of controlling overpopulation.
Wings of Selkhet
QUOTE
By the time the oil runs out, if it actually does and nobody really knows how much oil is down there, we will probably be using other sources as fuel


We actually already do have another source of fuel. Hydrogen. It may not be in widespread use at the moment, but if we were faced with running out of oil, we definitely do have another alternative resource - a cheap and renewable one, too.

*shudder* I don't even want to think about asteroid/comet impacts - they're actually one of my greatest fears. crying.gif I'm more worried about a cosmic collision than I am a tornado, plane crash, earthquake, etc. I just wish the whole planet was more prepared, because we sure as hell aren't. It's as if no one wants to face it as a real possibility.
Fluffybunny
QUOTE (stillcrazy @ Jul 18 2004, 06:01 PM)
I think it's a natures way of controlling overpopulation.

If we only had a choice of where the dang thing would land...

We are all doomed meteor or not. We only get on average 75 years to do what we are going to do and then it's our last curtain call...

Years ago in college I took a psychology course that looked into the popularity of doomsday stories/movies/books. The gist of it is that folks get bored with their mundane life and turn to doomsday scenarios to spice life up a bit...
snuffypuffer
QUOTE (stillcrazy @ Jul 19 2004, 02:01 AM)
Are we doomed?


Well........... yeah. Till then, enjoy yourself.
joc
QUOTE
If we only had a choice of where the dang thing would land...


Just curious where you would choose tongue.gif
Falco Rex
Cleveland? tongue.gif
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