The inimitable Private Fraser of Dad’s Army encapsulated the Malthusian doctrine to grim comic effect when he suggested an end to civilisation as he knew it. He was not the first - or the last - to oil the wheels of the doomsday machine. For it seems that if humans cannot have Apocalypse Now! we can have Apocalypse When? From Nostradamus’s suggestion of global calamity, occasioned by the arrival on Earth of Satan (confidently, but erroneously, predicted for 1999) we believe the end is nigh. The 16th-century French astrologer - and drug abuser - wrote of the end of the world in Quatrain 74, which related to events in July 1999. Somehow, however, we survived. But, no matter where we are in history, it is an age of anxiety, and our fears have grown exponentially over the past half- century. From the Cold War to the latest prognostication that we will soon go the way of Atlantis, we embrace the threat of calamity. The psychologist Dr Jack Boyle believes that, as a species, we need to latch on to worst-case scenarios because "medium-case" bore us. "We likes extremes," he said, and added: "Because it is removed from our experience. "The majority of people exhibit safe and cautious behaviour. Titillating news sells. Doomsday stories are an extension, an enjoyment of extremes which fascinate. "The truth is, though, that few historical forecasts come true." Our fascination with doom-laden situations that do not materialise is exemplified by Thomas Malthus, the 18th- century social thinker. His calamity of choice was starvation, and his views were shared by Charles Darwin, the author of Origin of Species. Malthus predicted global famine and suggested, somewhat controversially, that war, poverty and disease were useful means of population control. He said the population grew "geometrically" while resources increased "arithmetically". The result would be starvation. But the theory did not take into account that improving technology would dramatically increase our ability to create resources. Even 200 years on, modern Malthusians were still espousing the theory. In the Sixties, Paul Ehrlich, the author of Population Bomb, and Lester Brown, the founder of the Worldwatch Institute, predicted that the "dramatic consequences" of our "throwaway lifestyle" were only a McDonald’s carton away. In 1968, Ehrlich said food shortages in India would kill 200 million people by 1980. In fact, by 1980, India was exporting surplus grain to Russia. It would be easy to dismiss Ehrlich and company, but their concerns were genuinely based on their knowledge - and an ancient human fear of disaster.