Main body post 4Thank you Scotty. In this post I will identify why international law and intrest is incappable of preventing war, as well as issueing my counter-arguements to oppinions my opponent has put fowards and giveing a clear example of how economey crash is party responsable for world war. I will firstly issue my counter-arguements.QUOTE
WALKEN has spent much of his third post in putting forward that Alliegances played a big part in the First World War, something which I first pointed out in my original post and so, of course I totally agree with him. It seems my honorable opponent is doing my job for me
Actually you are doing my job, as it is me who is debateing that a third world war is inevitable. That alliance system still exsists today, so haveing admitted that it is a cause of war, is a third world war really impossible? Can it even be considored
improbable?
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At the start of the First World War, for instance, multitudes of people celebrated in the streets, this shows that the populace SUPPORTED the war. We have to ask ourselves, if they only knew then, of the consequences of the war would they have so readily entered into it?
No, they wouldn't have; but they did not know the consequences of the war. At the time they surpported the war, for they had no idea of the horrific outcome. Likewise, world leaders could enter a war for economic gain, without knowing of it's future cost.
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Both WALKEN and myself agreed that a nuclear world war wouldn't happen so, imagine if in 1914, Britain and Germany both boasted nuclear weapons. We have already agreed that a nuclear war is avoidable so ask yourself this. Would Britain have declared war on Germany if the Germans were nuclear capable?
Let us not forget that this is not about nuclear warfare specifically, it is about a global conflict. To awnser your question, possibly. Probably even. If the UK launched a non-nuclear assult on Germany, Germany could respond through non-nuclear means. They wouldn't dare launch a nuclear attack if the opponent also had nuclear capabilaties; they would be full aware of the consequences of this.
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The idea behind nuclear weapons is M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction). And it still holds true today!
Yes it does, and that is enougth to prevent a nuclear war; a non-nuclear conflict could still occur.
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Also, WALKEN puts forward the idea that modern society is receptive to government propaganda and that we entered an unwarranted war in Iraq. The truth is that whilst many millions did indeed oppose the war in iraq, millions more supported it and still do.
Obviously you have not seen the statistics. I have attached the results of a poll taken on ABC7 Listens to this post. Obviously the results speak for themself.
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The very fact that George Bush was re-elected as the US president proves that may Americans at least, support him and his policies. We will see shortly wether or not Tony Blair suffers a different fate.
Thats untrue. Firstly, despite Tony Blairs stand in Iraq, he will be elected again. Why? Because the oppositon is so weak. The conservative party of Britain are at an all time low; the election results will reflect this, not the publics beleif that the war in iraq was just. The same applies for President Bush. The people of the USA and UK are more intrested in what the labour party/republicans can do for
them, not iraq.
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My esteemed opponent also poses that `the arms race` will ultimately result in another world war. Again, wrong. The nuclear arms race is over and THAT didn't lead to war. In fact and eventuality, the USSR Bankrupted itself in the arms race,and countless nuclear powered ships and subs lay rusting in Russian ports to prove this.
Actually it is a lack of disarment that will cause war. We have seen this before to; it's what finished off the league of nations and led to World War two.
Germany left the league of nations because it felt it was being abused; it had agreed to disarm (forced to agree, that is) on the beleif that evrey other country would soon be doing the same. This never happened, so Germany left the league and began the staggering rate of rearment that I enclosed statistics of in my last post. In response to this, rather than resort to disarment and to enforce the leagues intentions, complete disarment, the leagues chairmen, France and Britain, began to build up arms too.
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You are hardly likely to wage war on the very same nation which buys your products and fuels your own national economic growth.
You are, if you thought you could invade and sucsessfully destroy the country, takeing evreything for your own.
So lets look at what we have 'learnt':
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1. A Nuclear Third World War is most improbably due to Mutual Assured Destruction of both sides.
Yes, a nuclear third world war is improbable, but I have already stated why M.A.D cannot prevent a non-nuclear conflict.
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2. World wars are NOT started for economic gain as historically they destroy the economies of the nations fighting them.
Ah, such blatant disregard for evreything I've put fowards related to this.
Firstly; If the countrys goverment did not think it benefitcial for a countries economey and influence to enter these wars, they would not. Secondly, at the start of a world war we cannot see the consequences we are yet to face. In most cases we will not even be able to see that it is a 'World war'.
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3. We are now a more intelligent/aware species than we used to be and have learnt the full horrors of war and are nor so ready to enter into one.
You seem to have forgotten once again that we only just
did enter one, And not long before that we were part of another.
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4. An arms race like the nuclear one will NOT eventually lead to world war. In fact, the nuclear arms race KEPT us out of a world war.
The WMD arms race is not yet over, not nuclear, biological or chemical. Nuclear weapons have been used before and could be used again. The challenge of the race is to build something no one else has got.
For example; Why did the USA nuke Japan?
Because Japan had not yet aqquired the capabilaties to stop them or launch an effective counter attack.
Who can imagine what the next super weapon will be? An army immune to the effects of WMD's, perhaps? Weather controll? Whatever comes next, the first person to aqquire it will havce an advantage unmatched and unstoppable. M.A.D? Not if only one person has them.

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5. The world most powerful nations are now bound together by economic growth and trade. Not divided by fear and suspicion.
Such was the case until the
Wall street crash. It is an old saying; When the USA sneezes, the world catches a cold.
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So, these four points we have proved so far, whilst by themselves would not solely prevent a third world war from happening. Together, dear reader, you must agree, they pose a VERY strong case why the world would not enter into one.
Five points actually, and none remain proven. They have in fact been disproven.
Case Study- The Wall Street crashThe Wall Street crash, followed by the depression, led to huge problems all around the world.
Britain suffered a high unemployment. It was not willing to get involved sorting out international disputes why its economey was suffering. This lead to the breakdown of the league of nations, which in turn is partly responsable for WW2.
The USA was unwilling to support economic sanctions why it's own economey was such a mess. This led to the failure of economic sanctions, which in turn linked to the failure of the league of nations. This lead to WW2.
France began to build a series of it's fronteir defences on it's borders with germany. This shows a rise in tension due to a lack of international trade, caused by economic problems. This tension eventually helped lead to WW2.
Germany's unexployment and poverty led to the people electing Adolf Hitler and the Nazi's. I think we all know what happened then.
In Japan, the depression threatened a complete callopse of the economey and the countrys industry. This led to Japan takeing over Manchuria, part of China. The manchurian crisis is commonly thought of as the turning point of the league of nations; the beggening of it's end.
Globally tarrifs were placed on imported goods to encourage home-made goods sales. This led to a decrease in international trade, which I have already stated leads to tension and war.
I beleive I have now proved how economic problems effect international relationships and how they can lead to war.
International lawInternational law can do very little to prevent the outbreak of war and world wars. To demonstrate this, I will use an all to familiar setting, the age of the league of nations, and an example; The Manchuria crisis.
Since 1900's japans economey grew rapidly, along with it's population. By the 1920's japan had become a major world power. It had a very powerful army and navy, a strong industry, importing goods mainly to the USA and china, and a quickly expanding empire.
The depression was
very harmful to Japans economey. The USA and chine put up trade barriers (tarrifs) against Japanese goods. The Wall Street crash put all of Japan in crisis.
In 1931 they forcibly invaded Manchuria, part of china, in an attempt to expand their empire. China appealed to the league. For the league of nations this was a huge problem and a very seriouse matter; after all, Japan was a leading member of the league.
After a long delay, in 1932, a full YEAR after the invasion, a balanced report was issued. The judgement was clear; Japan was in the wrong and Manchuria was to be returned to China.
In 1933, instead of withdrawing from Manchuria, however, Japan commenced further invasions of parts of china. The league was powerless. It was clear at this point that it's reign was over.
Not long afterwards, it was disbanded.
So how is that relevent, you ask? It consistently proves that if an aggresive major world power is willing to go to war in the first place, international laws do not matter to it, and very rarely will the institution put in place to uphold these laws want to risk interveneing. A great and recent example of this is the Iraq war.
International law and agreements, even contracts, have always relyed on the goodwill within the international community. If that good will is not there, they rarely work.
That concludes my fourth post. I hand the debate to my honourable opponent, Scotty