The following article was brought to my attention by member stixxman

From Scientific American

October 2001 issue

CIVIL ENGINEERING

Drowning New Orleans
A major hurricane could swamp New Orleans under 20 feet of water, killing thousands. Human activities along the Mississippi River have dramatically increased the risk, and now only massive reengineering of southeastern Louisiana can save the city

By Mark Fischetti

The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under 20 feet of water. "As the water recedes," says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies."
New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh--an area the size of Manhattan--will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far.

A direct hit is inevitable. Large hurricanes come close every year. In 1965 Hurricane Betsy put parts of the city under eight feet of water. In 1992 monstrous Hurricane Andrew missed the city by only 100 miles. In 1998 Hurricane Georges veered east at the last moment but still caused billions of dollars of damage. At fault are natural processes that have been artificially accelerated by human tinkering--levying rivers, draining wetlands, dredging channels and cutting canals through marshes. Ironically, scientists and engineers say the only hope is more manipulation, although they don't necessarily agree on which proposed projects to pursue. Without intervention, experts at L.S.U. warn, the protective delta will be gone by 2090. The sunken city would sit directly on the sea--at best a troubled Venice, at worst a modern-day Atlantis.

As if the risk to human lives weren't enough, the potential drowning of New Orleans has serious economic and environmental consequences as well. Louisiana's coast produces one third of the country's seafood, one fifth of its oil and one quarter of its natural gas. It harbors 40 percent of the nation's coastal wetlands and provides wintering grounds for 70 percent of its migratory waterfowl. Facilities on the Mississippi River from New Orleans to Baton Rouge constitute the nation's largest port. And the delta fuels a unique element of America's psyche; it is the wellspring of jazz and blues, the source of everything Cajun and Creole, and the home of Mardi Gras. Thus far, however, Washington has turned down appeals for substantial aid.
Fixing the delta would serve as a valuable test case for the country and the world. Coastal marshes are disappearing along the eastern seaboard, the other Gulf Coast states, San Francisco Bay and the Columbia River estuary for many of the same reasons besetting Louisiana. Parts of Houston are sinking faster than New Orleans. Major deltas around the globe--from the Orinoco in Venezuela, to the Nile in Egypt, to the Mekong in Vietnam--are in the same delicate state today that the Mississippi Delta was in 100 to 200 years ago. Lessons from New Orleans could help establish guidelines for safer development in these areas, and the state could export restoration technology worldwide. In Europe, the Rhine, Rhône and Po deltas are losing land. And if sea level rises substantially because of global warming in the next 100 years or so, numerous low-lying coastal cities such as New York would need to take protective measures similar to those proposed for Louisiana.

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yah the US gov't refused to acknowledge hard scientific facts about global warming, and the disaster in new-orleans is the consequence...

I remember reading something like this back in grade school. I had forgotten about it.

A good find Stixxman/Faeden.

"The only thing infinite is human stupidity" - Albert Einstein

Global warming had nothing whatsoever to do with this. Malarkey, and junk science too.

The warnings have been out for fourty years about NO. Camile hit in '69 and they were very lucky ...Gulfport was destroyed by Camile....and yet nothing was done...it isn't the Federal Governments fault..it isn't Bush's fault.

Don't you people ever think for yourselves? Stop being CNN sponges and wake up won't ya.

Amen to that Joc

Seriously.... just looking at the geographical layout and simple facts (like being below sea level and how they had to build the wall keeping the river out over and over after the town being flooded over and over in the past) is plenty to predict something so damn OBVIOUS. US government is pure evil though. Its not the fault of the original settlers picking the worse spot in the area now is it?

Guys this is NOT a flame, but since so many people are in such pain maybe this could wait, We can all say how everyone in the goverment messed up but thats not going to help right now.. Maybe this thread would be better if we just helded off for right now..I live in a state that has been flooded and the God knows we get hit every year many times.. And i have to say this is poor timing and taste..

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this, Isis. For one thing, I am sure none of us have any feelings but support and hope for the victims of Hurricane Katrina, particularly those in New Orleans. Criticizing the government for failed actions, and actions it should have took, does not, in any way, diminish our support for efforts to clear up the damage.

I don't see how this is groundbreaking. New Orleans has always been at high risk for flooding, due to it's location -- it doesn't take a genius to figure that one out. It's a little surreal to see everything mentioned in that article come to be, but it's not all that surprising.



Misquoted, but accurate.

Whatever the cause may be, the ocean's temperature is rising, and the heat from the ocean is what gives the hurricanes all of their energy. How you can say Global warming had nothing to do with it is beyond me.

What would be completely out of character for Mother Earth is for her mean temperature to never change. ANd.....if the ocean is what gives the hurricanes all of their energy...and if the temperature of the ocean dictates the energy of the hurricane...then why:

Why did Katrina loose strength prior to slamming into the coast? The fact of the matter is that animals, so incredibly huge, once roamed the Earth. And no doubt storms have come along that make Katrina look like a Sunday School lesson.

Global Warming didn't cause the hurricane.
Global Warming didn't cause an increase in the strength of the hurricane.
Global Warming is not going to cause us all to die.
Global Warming is not being caused by fossil fuel consumption.

If Global Warming is occurring at all...there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop it. So please already...just stop all the BS about Global Warming...it is a pathetic thought process that only identifies ones intellectual prowess as being nill.

Disregarding joc's little rant for the moment, New Orleans has always been at risk for a large hurricane, since its foundation. Nor are such hurricanes a recent event, caused by global warming.

I never said anything about humans being the cause. I said the sea temperature is rising (which it is, regardless the cause), and because sea temperatures all over the world are rising, its therefore called Global warming. Global warming did increase the strength of the hurricane; higher temperatures mean more energy. This is why hurricanes will become more frequent and more dangerous. Whatever the cause is, when the entire globe is becoming warmer; I tend to call it 'global warming'.

The fact is, global warming will kill us eventually; the earth is everchanging and anyone who thinks the earth will be forever inahbitable is wrong (unless we begin to terraform our own planet in the future to keep it habitable...). Maybe it's just me; but you should read people's posts more carefully; I wasnt ranting about how we're causing global warming and that we should stop burning fossil fuels etc.

Global warming won't kill us all, maybe a large percentage but not all of us. It happened in the past, and we survived with just spears and parkas.

^Care to eleborate on that?

Oh well that is fine then just as long as some of us are left wtf

There is no point in arguing with people who believe that global warming is a myth, they are so far brainwashed that they wont recognise the facts, until they are standing on a destroyed earth (even then they may not recognise it). They say we do not think for our selves, when the facts are there for all to see, the weather is becoming more and more extreme, you can see it, science is stating it, and the ignorant still believe the glossing over that is happening.

Just hope that pray that the people that really matter can open there eyes before its to late.

Some people are so ignorant it goes beyond scary and creepy.

It is a predictable tactic for the ignorant or for the head in the sand people to use people bringing up an important issue that they find uncomfortable as an weapon against the one asking the question, as if you are not helping the matter and just making it worse, they do not see that some people think ahead into the future. I brought this thread to light because its interesting that it was written in 2001. To address things like this can help bad things not happening in the future, if it where up to some, no one would ever question anything, and the destruction of the planet would be allowed to continue, until its to late, do I have to highlight the stupidity of that?

All the best
Faeden

Many scientists say that the effects of the global warming as of late are irreversable. If by tomorrow everyone stopped burning fossil fuels, stopped using cars etc. things would get considerably worse until they got better.

I really think it's time we cut down on the fossil fuels. We have around 30years worth of oil left, and I dont imagine we don't have much coal left at all; It's better to start weaning of the fossil fuels now for the good of the environment aswell as the fact we will run out of the fuels soon.

Yeah, so what's next? California falling into the Pacific? If this happens am I a prophet?

Just last year a friend and I were discussing the probability that New Orleans would soon be emveloped by the Gulf. It was inevitable. But I do thin Arnie will handle it better when Cali does drop off. He will just take Arizona. Or maybe he will move the state to Mars. lol

I quote the great Maynard:

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cuz
I sure could use a vacation from this

One great big festering neon distraction,
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied.

Learn to swim.

Mom's gonna fix it all soon.
Mom's comin' round to put it back the way it ought to be.

Cuz I'm praying for rain
And I'm praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mom please flush it all away.
I wanna watch it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.

Time to bring it down again.
Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.

I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome any change, my friend.

Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.


Maynard knows, why don't you?

Jerry

^The point being; this hurricane and its effects were predicted but no measures were taken to prevent them, i.e. reinforcing the Levee's. It's not a case of who can predict things happening; its a case of officials not taking notice to the warnings.

Yeah or "Don't build houses on the sand."

If you live on top of a landfill, you shouldn't complain about the smell.

I love quoting. To quote the decaying Sam Kinison:

" Send em U-Hauls!! "

Jerry

You're saying they knew there was a risk of it happening, so they deserved it?

They were told the Levee's were good enough as they were, you can't blame them for feeling a sense of security when the people who are supposed to be in control tell you something like that.

I never said they deserved it. I'm saying that people have been predicting this would happen for years. Personally I would have moved. Another example is, I wouldn't want to live in southern California right now either.

I will say this though, after all of the warning sent out in the media about the devastation that this storm would cause, the people who stayed to rough it out are quite crazy. Not that they deserve anything for being crazy. Even the president of the US told them that they would be isolated if they stayed. If this storm had hit full force as they predicted, they would not be deploying a rescue effort. They would be deploying a clean-up.

So yeah, if the president of the US tells you that you will die if you stay , and you stay anyway....do I even have to be saying this? Figure it out.

Jerry

Unfortunately not everyone could even get out.

They had over two days warning. They could have walked at a slow pace to safety.

Jerry

I do agree to some degree. American's always beleive the government knows everything thats going on, and it doesn't matter what happens, they have hero's ready to blast from a space shuttle and save the world.

There is a time where everyone has to do there own part, and think of the consequences and think for themselves, and save themselves. In this case, yes.... a level 5 Hurricane coming towards the city.....every hurricane in the past has been more damaging. I would do whatever I could to leave, whether it be driving, get on a bus, hitchhike, just about anything to use commonsense to get out.

How about senior citizens with no family or friends? Or people with illnesses, or the handicapped. Even people in prisons, or hospitals.

Problems of a hurricane hitting New Orleans are not something that appeared on the radar in the last 2 years. It has been know much earlier.

The intensity and frequency of the hurricanes has changed though and with all the budget problems improvement of the levee system suffered and was delayed. It is that simple in terms of why it happened.

The response to the disaster is simply unexplainable. We have satellites, radar etc and ... this happens. Wowww. Looks like all this High Tech is just theatrics.

If Clinton was on the impeachment burner for Monica, Bush should be there for Katrina and Iraq.

One man does not control every aspect of government. So to blame Bush soley is idiotic.

Who blamed him soley Eric?

New Orleans was a problem waiting to happen, and there was not much that could be done to save the whole town. What were they suppose to do, evacuate the whole town ?. Build a giant dome over New Orleans ?. What could be possibly built to keep a hurricane out of a city?.

Anyone could of predicted this. For instance Tragically Hip made a song called "New Orleans is Sinking", does this make Gord Downey some kind of Prophet ?. No, it was a disaster waiting to happen, and there was nothing the government COULD of really done, until it actually happened.

They could of spend millions on protection, that might of had no help at all against the destructive power of a hurricane. Their thoughts were more like " wait till it happens, and then we will see what we are up against ". If it was so easy to stop a hurricane, it wouldn't destroy any cities, we would protect them all, but this is not the case.

You take a chance of dying everytime you get in a car, even though the government has made them as safe as possible. People knew the consequences of living in New Orleans.

Exactly...they could have and should have spent millions on protection...maybe the result would have been the same...probably not though. Consider had the levees been 20 feet higher even.

But why spend millions on something that's not going to help ?. So they had 20 feet higher levees, no doubt in my mind that the hurricane would of torn those apart too. Only reason they never did before, is because a hurricane had never actually swept right through New Orleans.

Each year they come closer, until this one came close enough to the city. These things tear houses down, throw cars miles away, what could we possibly build to harness such a disaster and stop it from flooding?. There is no way possible to stop a hurricane from destroying such a big city, it's like an ant colony trying to stop you from walking over there ant hills.

The hurricane didn't tear the levees apart. What broke the levee was the massive surge from Lake Ponchitrain....more significant levees would have helped....but your thinking is the same negative, defeatist attitude that resulted in an entire city misplaced.
Why bother with levees? They won't hold anyway. It isn't worth the trouble.

Excuse me but we have people living...LIVING...in outer space on the space station...I think we can design and build levees to withstand a Cat 5 if we WANTED to...~Desire is the starting point for all achievement~napolean hill