Mar. 10

WASHINGTON - The harmful effects of global warming on daily life are already showing up, and within a couple of decades hundreds of millions of people won't have enough water, top scientists will say next month at a meeting in Belgium.

At the same time, tens of millions of others will be flooded out of their homes each year as the Earth reels from rising temperatures and sea levels, according to portions of a draft of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press.

Tropical diseases like malaria will spread. By 2050, polar bears will mostly be found in zoos, their habitats gone. Pests like fire ants will thrive.

For a time, food will be plentiful because of the longer growing season in northern regions. But by 2080, hundreds of millions of people could face starvation, according to the report, which is still being revised.

The draft document by the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change focuses on global warming's effects and is the second in a series of four being issued this year. Written and reviewed by more than 1,000 scientists from dozens of countries, it still must be edited by government officials.

But some scientists said the overall message is not likely to change when it's issued in early April in Brussels, the same city where European Union leaders agreed this past week to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Their plan will be presented to President Bush and other world leaders at a summit in June.

The report offers some hope if nations slow and then reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but it notes that what's happening now isn't encouraging.

"Changes in climate are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent," the report says, in marked contrast to a 2001 report by the same international group that said the effects of global warming were coming. But that report only mentioned scattered regional effects.

"Things are happening and happening faster than we expected," said Patricia Romero Lankao of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., one of the many co-authors of the new report.

The draft document says scientists are highly confident that many current problems — change in species' habits and habitats, more acidified oceans, loss of wetlands, bleaching of coral reefs, and increases in allergy-inducing pollen — can be blamed on global warming.

For example, the report says North America "has already experienced substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from recent climate extremes," such as hurricanes and wildfires.

But the present is nothing compared to the future.

Global warming soon will "affect everyone's life ... it's the poor sectors that will be most affected," Romero Lankao said.

And co-author Terry Root of Stanford University said: "We truly are standing at the edge of mass extinction" of species.

The report included these likely results of global warming:

_Hundreds of millions of Africans and tens of millions of Latin Americans who now have water will be short of it in less than 20 years. By 2050, more than 1 billion people in Asia could face water shortages. By 2080, water shortages could threaten 1.1 billion to 3.2 billion people, depending on the level of greenhouse gases that cars and industry spew into the air.

_Death rates for the world's poor from global warming-related illnesses, such as malnutrition and diarrhea, will rise by 2030. Malaria and dengue fever, as well as illnesses from eating contaminated shellfish, are likely to grow.

_Europe's small glaciers will disappear with many of the continent's large glaciers shrinking dramatically by 2050. And half of Europe's plant species could be vulnerable, endangered or extinct by 2100.

_By 2080, between 200 million and 600 million people could be hungry because of global warming's effects.

_About 100 million people each year could be flooded by 2080 by rising seas.

_Smog in U.S. cities will worsen and "ozone-related deaths from climate (will) increase by approximately 4.5 percent for the mid-2050s, compared with 1990s levels," turning a small health risk into a substantial one.

_Polar bears in the wild and other animals will be pushed to extinction.

_At first, more food will be grown. For example, soybean and rice yields in Latin America will increase starting in a couple of years. Areas outside the tropics, especially the northern latitudes, will see longer growing seasons and healthier forests.

Looking at different impacts on ecosystems, industry and regions, the report sees the most positive benefits in forestry and some improved agriculture and transportation in polar regions. The biggest damage is likely to come in ocean and coastal ecosystems, water resources and coastal settlements.

The hardest-hit continents are likely to be Africa and Asia, with major harm also coming to small islands and some aspects of ecosystems near the poles. North America, Europe and Australia are predicted to suffer the fewest of the harmful effects.

"In most parts of the world and most segments of populations, lifestyles are likely to change as a result of climate change," the draft report said. "Net valuations of benefits vs. costs will vary, but they are more likely to be negative if climate change is substantial and rapid, rather than if it is moderate and gradual."

This report — considered by some scientists the "emotional heart" of climate change research — focuses on how global warming alters the planet and life here, as opposed to the more science-focused report by the same group last month.

"This is the story. This is the whole play. This is how it's going to affect people. The science is one thing. This is how it affects me, you and the person next door," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver.

Many — not all — of those effects can be prevented, the report says, if within a generation the world slows down its emissions of carbon dioxide and if the level of greenhouse gases sticking around in the atmosphere stabilizes. If that's the case, the report says "most major impacts on human welfare would be avoided; but some major impacts on ecosystems are likely to occur."

The United Nations-organized network of 2,000 scientists was established in 1988 to give regular assessments of the Earth's environment. The document issued last month in Paris concluded that scientists are 90 percent certain that people are the cause of global warming and that warming will continue for centuries.

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I heard this morning that biting red ants... fire ants? have hit Malaysia and the Buddhists are trying to find a conciencious way of getting them to leave them alone... testing their reslove to harm no living thing!!!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6441631.stm



this puzzles me... they are ok with receiving the benefit someone else doing the killing.. but they are not allowed to do it themselves.. just as they are allowed to eat meat as long as they haven't seen it alive moments before.. or someone else ... unbidden does the dirty work for them.... don't they know they are karmically linked on all levels??? that in a way they are profiting benefiting of the 'sins' ( taking of life) of another????



that plants have life and feelings as well ??? until/unless they become Breatharians... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inedia or strict Fruitarians... ( only eating fruits that have fallen off a tree) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fruitarianism ... it has always puzzled me....

I know they are said to ideally live off the gifts of human kindness.. offerings.. which in turn blesses the samaritans... it is a blessing to give and a blessing to receive as you put yourself in the position of allowing.. creating an opportunity for others to give and feel good about it... ... but if no-one else is around... ??? or are they fully dependant on slaves.. volunteers... while they are busy saving their own souls and praying for the enlightenment of others..and themsleves.... and so become an inspiration to others????

might i ask...what global warming? i have not seen proof that it is man that has caused this....i believe that it is a natural cycle, and the poles do get smaller and bigger over the years its natural...you wait 10 years and the earth will be back to normal...(well i dont know about 10 years maybe longer)

I'm with you on that... but remember global warming is a multibillion dollar industry... and the only good part of it is that it makes the world a lot more aware or conscious of their environment .. will make them all hopefully more active in reducing polution and harming their environment.... which is a good thing. is it not???..

http://washingtontimes.com/world/20070306-122226-6282r.htm

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Kyoto_Count_Up.html
he seemingly interminable Kyoto countdown is over - now we begin to count UP (the cost).

Since coming into effect February 16, 2005, the Kyoto Protocol has cost the world about while the potential temperature saving by the year 2050 so far achieved by Kyoto is
(to get activity on the clock we had to go to billionths part of one degree, which obviously cannot be measured as a global mean) and yes, that really does represent about $100K per billionth of one degree allegedly "saved." Guess that means for the bargain price of just $100 trillion we could theoretically lower global mean temperature by about 1 °C.

So, how do we arrive at these incredible numbers?

Firstly, the now widely acknowledged "saving" (amount of warming avoided) potential for complete implementation of Kyoto is ~0.07 °C by the year 2050. Since skeptics (e.g. Pat Michaels) and advocates (Kevin Trenberth, for example) alike have signed off on the figure we see no need to dispute it (granted, many have pointed out that the potential "saving" is closer to 0.02 °C but who's quibbling - that's way less than error margin for trying to measure global temperature anyway). Further, even though the US and Australia have sense enough to stay clear of energy rationing schemes like this we are prepared to cut The Protocol a great deal of slack and pretend that figure is achievable by the EU and fellow travelers. Thus our potentially "saved" temperature figure is simply 0.07 °C/45 (the amount per year assuming a linear progression) further divided down to an accumulation per second. Granted, this is not likely a very accurate nor realistic representation but hey, we don't even know the absolute mean surface temperature of the planet within ±0.7 °C anyway.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1363818.ece

interesting stuff there crystal sage, i recently watched a program about how global warming is a load of phoey (however you spell that). basically loads of scientists have done pain staking research and have found that the ice caps do indeed get bigger and smaller over periods of time, this is a perfectly natural cycle...and how humans arent affecting anything at all....global warming is one big ploy by the media...

How do you breathe with your head so deeply buried in the sand?
Global warming is real, it is caused by human creation of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. There are natural warming and cooling cycles. This isn't one of them. This is artificial.
The Republicans you've been listening to are lying with all their might.

Sigh, I don't like fire ants .

I think global warming is real. But I think that earth will somehow find a way to fix this. Somehow, by the melting ice caps, there will probably be a huge storm or flood, that clears out the human race, or we die out, and then in 100,000 years everything will be back to the way it was. People say we are destroying the earth, which we are, but I think the earth will fix itself, which might mean getting rid of us.