QUOTE(Essan @ Jul 12 2007, 05:23 AM)

It really does no-one any good to pretend ignorance or stupidity by making out they think that weather and climate are the same thing

Im not attempting to say this at all, climate and weather are different. Climate is much, much more complex then weather, in fact weather over time is a function of climate. The point raised though is this, If we can not predict with any accuracy 1 complex and chaotic system, how then can we pretend to predict another.
Ever hear of a geoid? what about tectonics, eustatic effects on shoreline dynamics, aminostratigraphy, global energy balance, radiative forcings, cooling-heating cloud dynamics, volcanic particulates, stratosphere particulate loading, solar flux, rmilankovitch cycles, axial tilt, solar adiabatic invariants? Ever hear of those? It turns out that is just a small, small number of things that effect climate. As I said, its a very complex and chaotic system, prediciton of a chaotic system is impossible.
QUOTE(Essan)
In any case, making predictions that if temp rises continue at a given rate for a given period of time then arctic ice will melt is a bit like predicting that if you drive your car for a given distance it'll run out of fuel
It would be nice if the world were that simple, as per my earlier post.
QUOTE(camlax @ Jul 8 2007, 05:54 PM)

QUOTE
"In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible ."
IPCC. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge UK press 2001. p. 744
QUOTE(graylady2)
I'm not ignoring anything. My data doesn't come from *papers* - it comes from the *source* - the indigenous people who live in the polar region. They are the ones who are concerned because water is showing up where none was - for *eons* before. When it comes to hunting they use skidoos, and have for years. Now they can't hunt in certain areas because the skidoos *sink*... Never before was that a problem. Now it's their main problem to consider when/where they hunt.
Your right, your information does not come papers, nor does it come from credible sources. Last time I checked most people have a hard enough time remembering what they ate for breakfast yesterday let alone correct oral history from "eons" ago.
QUOTE(greylady2)
Why do you mock something you can't begin to understand?
Actually lady, I'm fairly certain I have a fairly good understanding of how the world works, what I dont understand is, how you can claim to understand something that is not "understandable". Climate is immensely complex, there are literally and infinite number of variables that go into the system. A system such as this can not be predicted. The best climate scientists in the world (at least the ethical ones) don't claim to understand climate. Saying you understand and predict climate is like saying you know where Google's stock will be in 10,15,25, or 100 years from now. Its only a matter of understanding that accurate prediction is impossible.
QUOTE(greylady2)
Who's taling about "soot" (coal was the common fuel then)? We're doing much more damage to the atmosphere now than we were back then... You pick one compound and that's the end all, be all? Please....
You need to put your science mags down and take a trip to the polar regions...I guarantee it'll change the way you think
Sorry to use you as an example, but I am going too. This is a prime example of people who know nothing of science or the scale of climate yet pretend they do because they read the science section of the LA times or listen to MSNBC.
"Soot" as it turns out, is the residual left overs from combustion of organic molecules. Organic molecules refers to anything containing Carbon and Hydrogen, be it coal, gas, wood, synthetic organics etc. It turns out that the more carbon a compound contains the more soot it will produce, so wood>coal>oil>gas etc. (which by the way brings up another point that we have been de-carbonizing for years now)
Colors so it turns out play an important role in the amount of energy the earth absorbs from the sun (ultimately heat). An object that is white is white because it reflects all colors equally (electromagnetic radiation). A black object, absorbs all colors. So ice in the thermosphere and stratosphere reflect colors (EM radiation or heat) back into space. Black soot particles increase the amount of energy that earth absorbs, heating it. So soot pollution plays a key role in warming.
As to the second part of your post your correct I named one compound as an example, if you dont know more that should be your cue to research it rather than remain ignorant.
Sulfur oxides,Nitrogen oxides, Carbon monoxide, Carbon dioxide, Particulate matter, Metal oxides (Lead, Cadmium etc), Chlorofluorocarbons, Ammonia and Methane are some, but not all forms of air pollution that was not regulated in the early half of the 20th century. The air was, without a doubt, more dirty then.