Hurry!!! We have to get to higher ground :s8

Could the year 2019 be the end of human history.


http://dailytelegraph.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,4773170%255E1702,00.html



                         X

I was reading about this on another site earlier on today. Some of the reports about it seem greatly exaggerated. One astronomical research institute gave a statement to the effect that the chances of it actually hitting are something less than 1 in a million.

Many news sources are making something of a headline out of this, even though the chances of us being hit are still exceptionally tiny.

Thankfully.  ;D

I agree, Gareth. Judging by all scientific prognostication made by astronomers, regarding dangerous asteroid courses which were all suspected to cause deep, life-threatening impacts to our planet, I reckon they've all proved to be false or completey inaccurate. ::)

 That isn't exactly true, Dakoda, all you need do is look at the moon to get an idea of how many times the earth has been struck by meteroites/asteroids. There just isn't much obvious visible evidence because of wear and erosion from weather and the constantly changing landscape, plus the fact that 75% of the planet is covered in water. You also have to remember that it wasn't until the 18th century that scientists even acknowledged the fact that 'rocks' fell out of the sky.  The danger is real and potentially disastrous, although there is great harm being done by those who rush their pronouncements with inaccurate findings and sensationalist claims. This 'chicken little' syndrome desensitizes an already lightly regarded phenomena that should be getting a thousand times more attention than it is currently receiving. My fear is that it will take an actual 'impact' on a populated area to inspire any action. Problem is, there's no guarantee that such an event will be caused by a small, undetectable object. Quite the quandary, don't you think?  :-/

Magikman  :sg

Well, I was speaking more in regards to the rumors and reports I've heard (not necessarily all during this or the previous year) about numerous asteroids being spotted by astronomers and presumed as "threatening"--apparently, several have missed Earth by a good deal of a distance, and several have come very close. I'm afraid I don't remember any specifics--I hear most of this from my mother, as she reads on-line articles similar to the stuff Athalus likes to share with us in World Of The Bizarre, and she'll sometimes happen to mention one that she thinks I'll be particularly fascinated with.

I mean... if anything large and perilous were to have hit our planet during this or the last decade, it would've appeared inevitable, right? And being a skeptic on several levels, I'm just going to let this one pass, unless the report is backed up with a solid confirmation. I'm sure this isn't the first time I've heard that "this is really it."

Fortunately extinction-sized asteroids are very rare, but they do hit the earth on occasion.

What is not so commonly known is that it doesn't take a rock the size of mount everest to cause serious damage. There have a number of collisions in the 20th century alone would have obliterated any built up area that they had hit.

Tunguska is one example, an impact in a remote area of Russia that flattened hundreds of square kilometres of trees. There have also been similarly catastrophic impacts in one of the worlds largest Deserts ( cant remember off hand which desert it was ) and Amazon rainforest, which were not even identified as impacts until the late 90's. Any of one of these could have wiped a city the size of New York clean from the map.

These are unfortunately quite common, and there are probably a lot more than we think, given that most of them likely hit the oceans.

It is predicted that we will possess the techology to alter the course of a large extinction asteroid within the next 40 years. Lets hope we can avoid such asteroids until then at least - how awful would it be to find that an extinction asteroid was to bit the earth a matter of years before a system to protect against such a catastrophe could be completed.  :s5

What I was thinking about, bit strange, but...

Imagen that you are an astronaut and you are in the ISS. Then suddenly an Asteroid hit's Erath. All contact with home is lost. Then you see that the whole earth gest covered in black smoke, the end of manmind. And you are in the ISS with 9 other people..  :s5 :s4

Odin S. :s9


PS,

Let's hope that there are also woman aboard!  ;D

THIS ARTICLE explains that the asteroid 2002 NT7 will not hit earth in 2019. Although it has been ruled out for that year, it goes on to say that perhaps in the year 2060 or later that same asteroid may impact earth.

QUOTE

Follow-up observations during the weekend showed the asteroid and the Earth won't meet -- at least for now, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Well, I had a feeling...  ::)

If there would have been an impact, at least there would have been several years to prepare for a specific impact at a specific place at a specific time. This year alone there have been two asteroids that were alarmingly close to earth that wasn't seen until it had passed, due to the fact that they were blocked by the brightness of the sun. Their distance was about twice the distance between the earth and the moon. Had either hit, there would have been a catastrophy comparable to Tunguska, and worse if hit in a populated area.

As I said before in another thread. It's not a matter of if earth will be hit by an extinction size asteroid/meteorite, but a matter of when.

On July 31st Homersaid:

QUOTE

It's not a matter of if earth will be hit by an extinction size asteroid/meteorite, but a matter of when.

I agree but will we be around to even worry about it? Or maybe we should start asking the generations that come behind us to keep a vigilant eye.....
But in any case we should look at all of the skies above not just a small part......
Only my opinon :s03

I wonder if I'll be alive when they discover that their prevision about catastrophies occuring around 2060 was also erroneous...  ;D ::)

Dakoda,
A prediction could be erroneous, but these weren't predictions, so they weren't in error. There is a tedious task of tracking known asteroids to determine if they are a threat to earth. 2002 NT7 is a newly discovered asteroid and even it's preliminary calculations said that there was only about 1 in 250,000 chance of hitting earth. After further calculations that date has been ruled out, but the complete orbit has yet to be determined. Astronomers expect to rule out the date in 2060 very soon, but until it's orbit is mapped, we wont know for sure. My point is that there is no errors here.  


CW,
Nobody knows when it will happen, but the odds are against it happening in our lifetime, or even our children and grandchildren's lifetime. Perhaps not for millions of years. But earlier this year has showed when those two unannounced asteroids came alarmingly close that when it hits, we might not know until it happens. But I agree with you in that not enough is being done to watch the whole sky.  :s4

The only two exceptions to it being a matter of when and not if, is that it could happen so far into the future that 1) our technology could have advanced to the point of detecting all that come close and divert them, or 2) our sun would turn into a red giant and consume earth.

I bet that in 100 years we have some kind of satellite system that has huge mirrors with thos mirrors it can focus all that energy on Asteroids and let them explode or melt when the are from Ice.

And this is also researched by NASA, have seen it on TV.  :D

Odin S.  :s9


PS,

Now don't you dare toi think that I only watch TV all day! I am also visiting the forum!  :s04 :s2