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dcman

Prelude to the Apocalypse

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This is a strange time we live in; people are lost and stumbling around in the dark trying to find their way. Along comes a group (in a small country) which appeals to the masses by making over-inflated promises which draws people to their way of thinking.

This isn't the first time this has happened; it kind of reminds me of Germany in the 1930's and the Nazi party. Now, you take a people which are basically un-educated and third world, and promise to make them into a "Great Nation" among the nations, (re: the nuclear reactor and nuclear technology) that they are somehow religiously superior to others and you get your cult following...add to this their rationale that the only reason why they have been subjugated to a lesser class of people is because they have been suppressed...Sound familiar?...didn't Hitler use this angle?

Throw into the mix the religious overtones that exist in the M.E. and that which people hold deeply in their lives, and you have the makings of an evil that the world hasn't witnessed since before WW2, and has the a distinctive characteristic or attribute of a Pax-Romano (Roman Rule) like institute, but instead this will be Muslim Rule.

The Romans like the Muslims were religious people. Pontifex Maximus was the High Priest. This position is filled with whom we call the Pope today. The Praetor was in charge of the judiciary of Rome. The office is like the Vice President position we have today. They make judgments upon the people and are the chief law officer. The Consuls (house and senate)or in Iran the (Mullahs) may overturn their verdicts if they felt the need.

What I see coming is similar - Pax-Islam...everything is in place for this...Islam is sweeping Europe and growing worldwide...but there are obstacles. Democracy and the right to choose stands in the way; I think the Middle East is a powder keg that is hung over the fire. Many believe that U.S. is about to leave Iraq or at least they should...and that somehow peace will take hold in the region when they leave. This is far from the truth; in reality, when U.S. troops go home, there will be a power struggle in the Middle East like has never been seen and in particular Iraq.

One possible scenario: Iran will sweep through Iraq with their army, with the help of the Shia in Iraq; the Saudis will resist this of course and march up to engage them in battle and another war will transpire in the Middle East again (many innocents will die)...The Saudis will have trouble because of inner turmoil (which exists now) and being betrayed by people in their own ranks who will side with the Iranian Mullahs and their brand of Islam.

During this time, Iran and Saudi Arabia will sit across the table from each other to discuss terms for peace and will lie to each other, Iran will leave with a considerable amount of concessions made to them because of their superior army, but the war will continue on anyway (blood Feud) ...this WILL bring back U.S. forces back to the region and the rest of the world will be there too because of the oil. This power struggle between Iran (Shia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni) is already going on in Iraq...pre-civil war phase...when the U.S. leaves, a full blown civil war will break out.

Which brings me to my next question…should the U.S. stay the course in Iraq and stabilize their government and security forces enough to rebuff Iran/Saudi Arabia?

Whether you believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it, whether it is Republican or Democrat in the white House. I feel what is about to transpire in the Middle East in the coming months, is going to change the world we live in dramatically.

Some background and what we have to look forward to when U.S. troops leave Iraq: "There is a sense that Shia are under occupation. And the situation is getting worse. There was a plan written by a Wahhabi cleric named Nasir al Omar who wrote about converting Shias to Sunni Islam or else face execution. Unfortunately it's at a social level now as well. The hatred of Shia is so intense that killing of Shia civilians is widely accepted. http://www.altmuslim.com/perm.php?id=1512_0_25_0_C38 ...

The Sunnis have no stake in working towards a Shiite dominated Iraq. They have everything to gain from destabilizing an Iraq that is moving in this direction. So the Sunnis are becoming the proverbial fly in the ointment for the Shiites and the Coalition forces and they have started a destabilizing insurgency in Iraq.

We may note that while the Iraqi insurgency is fully dominated by Sunnis it is not limited to Iraqi Sunnis. Sunnis from all across the Islamic world have converged in to Iraq to destabilize Iraq. No wonder the Saudis and Iranians want the U.S. out of Iraq.

The Shiite-Sunni Civil War in Iraq presage a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East Not many of us today will realize and dare to predict that the Shiite-Sunni Civil war in Iraq today bloody as it is, presages a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East.

This war that will unfold over several months will be by far the most bloodiest landmark in the history of War. This will be a war that will tear the Islamic world into two irreconcilable halves. A war that will not be a formal or declared one like a conventional war, but will be marked by increasingly bold and destructive terrorists attacks on Shiite targets, first in Iraq and later across the Islamic world. Before it is over the entire M.E. will be at war, and we will have to return to finish the job we started, and much greater cost, both of million of lives and trillions of dollars.

We need to finish what we have started and help Iraq to flourish as a model democracy...of course this is going to take time. Saudi Arabia IS financing the Sunni Insurgency to overthrow the Shia, and Iran IS financing Shia independence in Iraq with hopes of uniting countries to become the biggest financial/military superpower in the M.E. and the Saudis/Sunnis just won't let this happen.

How the Shiite-Sunni war will shape up during the U.S. withdrawal …An interesting outcome of this could be that the coalition forces would gradually withdraw to heavily fortified zones inside Iraq and leave the day-to-day fighting to the Shiite Army and Police. While the Americans dream is a stable and democratic Iraq, the Sunnis have no interest in such a Shiite dominated Iraq, while most Shiites would also not want democracy per se, they would prefer a Shiite theocracy - a prospect which is the worst anathema for the Sunnis.

We may see interesting permutations, where the Sunni insurgents gradually leave the coalition forces alone, unless they enter the war on the side of the Shiite dominated Iraqi army against the Sunni insurgents. But if the Americans keep to themselves inside their fortified zones, they would be a target of secondary preference to the Sunni insurgents.

The first object of their rage is going to be the Iraqi army and the lay Shiites. So we would see schools, hospitals, and mosque gatherings on Fridays being targeted in Shiite areas. How the Shiite army and police respond to this and what would be the policy of the present and future Shiite dominated government remains an interesting question.

The Shiites have displayed remarkable restraint so far, but the only reason for this is that they know that Iraq is their inheritance by sheer force of numbers through which they will ride over the Sunnis. They want to strengthen their grasp over Iraq, till the time that they can act independently of the Coalition forces. Once they cross that critical mass, the Shiites will shed their restraint and go on a merciless offensive against the Sunnis.

They have shown evidence of this when the former Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi personally shot some tens of Sunni insurgents lodged in Iraqi prisons. And Sunni clerics have had their bodies drilled into with electric drilling machines by Shiite policemen. These are tips of the iceberg of Shiite hatred for the Sunnis. ...anyone still think we should pack our bags and go home...do we really want this kind of bloodshed on our hands?

We need to stay the course in Iraq, and finish the job, and see the Iraqi democracy to fruition. one more thing: Historic significance of the American liberation of Iraq for the Shiites When the coalition forces toppled Saddam's regime they did not bring an end only to the Baathist dictatorship of three decades, but to Sunni domination of 1400 years. ...I guess not much thought was given about this before we toppled Saddam.

Whether we believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it, whether it is Republican or Democrat in the White House. The coming war will see all nations involved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their interests.

Edited by dcman

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Seems like it would be smart to just split Iraq into 3 and let the chips fall..

These people are basically maniacs..They have hated each other so much for so long, there is little we could do now or in the near (50 year) future. Let them get over themselves and join modern man and then we'll talk, but as long as Iran is doing things like hanging girls from cranes, it shouldn't happen..They may have computers and iPods but they have a long way to go..

Western Isolation from the muslim world increasingly seems to be the only option..but that will require petroleum replacement..As nutty as it sounds, I'd rather deal with Chavez and buy all that the lunatic can produce and tell the middle east to drop dead..Israel has nukes (like denying them makes a difference) and would not hesitate to use them..So they can hold their own (or my idea to move Israel to west Texas-it's probably 100x bigger and not a Palestinian in sight..)

Either way..right now it seems like a good time to leave..and not just Iraq either..

Edited by Pinky Floyd

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Is Dcman being paid by the word ? :P

Seriously though, this isn't really a news story :)

Meow Purr.

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Is Dcman being paid by the word ? :P

Seriously though, this isn't really a news story :)

Meow Purr.

It's more like one mans take on islam?....he could be a neo-con typist paid by the blog entry?..lol

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It's over 1600 words :o. Surely some sort of UM record ? :P

Lets try for a summary:

Islam is on the upsurge, resembling elements of Nazism and the old Roman Empire.

If America withdraws from Iraq, then we may see Islamic fundamentalists in Iran leading the government into an invasion of Iraq, assimilating it into the Umma. Saudi Arabia would attempt to rebuf the Iranians militarily, but would be unlikely to suceed. Meanwhile, there may be a pan-regional religious war between different sects of Islam. (Shi'ite and Sunni), reflecting the national leanings of Iran and Saudi respectively). The presence of vital oilfields in the region will drag other countries into the conflict (Including the US) as they attempt to keep the oil flowing and prevent damage to the oil infrastructure. (refineries, oilfields, transport routes.)

So lets stay in Iraq and finish the job.

I make that 125 words :D

Meow Purr.

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It's over 1600 words :o. Surely some sort of UM record ? :P

Lets try for a summary:

Islam is on the upsurge, resembling elements of Nazism and the old Roman Empire.

If America withdraws from Iraq, then we may see Islamic fundamentalists in Iran leading the government into an invasion of Iraq, assimilating it into the Umma. Saudi Arabia would attempt to rebuf the Iranians militarily, but would be unlikely to suceed. Meanwhile, there may be a pan-regional religious war between different sects of Islam. (Shi'ite and Sunni), reflecting the national leanings of Iran and Saudi respectively). The presence of vital oilfields in the region will drag other countries into the conflict (Including the US) as they attempt to keep the oil flowing and prevent damage to the oil infrastructure. (refineries, oilfields, transport routes.)

So lets stay in Iraq and finish the job.

I make that 125 words :D

Meow Purr.

Which make only slightly more sense than the original 1600

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It's over 1600 words :o. Surely some sort of UM record ? :P

Lets try for a summary:

Islam is on the upsurge, resembling elements of Nazism and the old Roman Empire.

If America withdraws from Iraq, then we may see Islamic fundamentalists in Iran leading the government into an invasion of Iraq, assimilating it into the Umma. Saudi Arabia would attempt to rebuf the Iranians militarily, but would be unlikely to suceed. Meanwhile, there may be a pan-regional religious war between different sects of Islam. (Shi'ite and Sunni), reflecting the national leanings of Iran and Saudi respectively). The presence of vital oilfields in the region will drag other countries into the conflict (Including the US) as they attempt to keep the oil flowing and prevent damage to the oil infrastructure. (refineries, oilfields, transport routes.)

So lets stay in Iraq and finish the job.

I make that 125 words :D

Meow Purr.

good summary....lets cut thru the bull..all the matters is that crude coming out of the sand...we need an alternative fuel source..fast

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good summary....lets cut thru the bull..all the matters is that crude coming out of the sand...we need an alternative fuel source..fast

I agree wholeheartedly.

Mind you - ther are things we could do with existing energy sources that would help. Look at the example of France: unlike most countries, it uses virtually NO oil or gas in it's national electricity grid. (it's something like Nuclear: 80%, Hydroelectric: 10%, garlic: 10%, or therabouts). OK, there are risk with garlic-produced electricity (burying the pungent waste), but it's a start.

Meow Purr.

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learn2paragraph

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learn2paragraph

who me?..you add so much to the conversation.... :rolleyes:

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Is Dcman being paid by the word ? :P

Seriously though, this isn't really a news story :)

Meow Purr.

Well, I'm glad you enjoyed it...lol :P

I should have put it into paragraphs to make it easier to read, I will next time. It's a culmination of a lot of research and news stories put together, and it is not an article per se. The other reader is correct in saying it is an opinion; personally, I think we should have never gone into Iraq...but we made our bed. When you go into a shop and break something, you have an obligation to the shop owner to pay for it...you break it, you own it. Iraq is kind of the same, we went there blindly and "broke" their country and whether we like it or not, we have an obligation to that nation to fix it...however long that takes. We broke it we own it. The problem I see with Iraq is representation of the different factions. As it stands now there is not equal representation. Democracy can work, but not in its present form; in order to make democracy work in Iraq, there has to be equal representation in their parliament. What this means is equal number of seats per faction regardless of population. I wrote about this at ABCNEWS on their website. Their are a lot of opinions about what I wrote, some for and some against...The article and discussion at ABCNEWS "Global Terrorism Forum" in whole: http://forums.abcnews.go.com/n/pfx/forum.a...l&tid=15293

funny though, I have never considered myself a neocon...conservative yes.

Edited by dcman

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It's over 1600 words :o. Surely some sort of UM record ? :P

Lets try for a summary:

Islam is on the upsurge, resembling elements of Nazism and the old Roman Empire.

If America withdraws from Iraq, then we may see Islamic fundamentalists in Iran leading the government into an invasion of Iraq, assimilating it into the Umma. Saudi Arabia would attempt to rebuf the Iranians militarily, but would be unlikely to suceed. Meanwhile, there may be a pan-regional religious war between different sects of Islam. (Shi'ite and Sunni), reflecting the national leanings of Iran and Saudi respectively). The presence of vital oilfields in the region will drag other countries into the conflict (Including the US) as they attempt to keep the oil flowing and prevent damage to the oil infrastructure. (refineries, oilfields, transport routes.)

So lets stay in Iraq and finish the job.

I make that 125 words :D

Meow Purr.

Nice summary. I wasn't going to read the op's post.

Edited by MoonPrincess

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Dcman, if you have equall parliamentary representation of each faction, regardless of that factions "population", then you don't have a representative democracy at all. (in fact, even the term 'democracy' falls down.). Why should a sect of 20,000 have equall representation (e.g. voting power) in parliament to a sect of 2,000,000 ? This would be a recipe for civil war. (or at least, would render the parliament impotent, as the larger factions would refuse to be bound by the dictates of the minority factions, and rightly so.).

Meow Purr.

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Dcman, if you have equall parliamentary representation of each faction, regardless of that factions "population", then you don't have a representative democracy at all. (in fact, even the term 'democracy' falls down.). Why should a sect of 20,000 have equall representation (e.g. voting power) in parliament to a sect of 2,000,000 ? This would be a recipe for civil war. (or at least, would render the parliament impotent, as the larger factions would refuse to be bound by the dictates of the minority factions, and rightly so.).

Meow Purr.

Would you prefer a Sunni/Shiite civil war, that not only takes place in Iraq, but the entire M.E. You cannot put them in the same democratic basket as ourselves. Without a power balance in Iraq, there will be War in the Middle East. - Sunni vs. Shiite nations.

edit:

A war that will also see all nations invloved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO (shanghai cooperation organization)...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their intrests. The potential is there for WWIII.

Edited by dcman

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Would you prefer a Sunni/Shiite civil war, that not only takes place in Iraq, but the entire M.E. You cannot put them in the same democratic basket as ourselves. Without a power balance in Iraq, there will be War in the Middle East. - Sunni vs. Shiite nations.

edit:

A war that will also see all nations invloved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO (shanghai cooperation organization)...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their intrests. The potential is there for WWIII.

Your 'scenario' is interesting, but I would disagree with a couple of points. First off is - as already discussed - this idea of creating a parliament with equall voting rights for all recognised 'sects', regardless of how many people adhere to that sect. This is an artificial structure with no linkage to the actuall people of Iraq, and would disintegrate into civil war within weeks, if not days.

Overall, I think we should just let them get on with it, and form their own power structures.

In regard Iran: it lacks the military ability to invade Iraq. (or rather, it lacks the ability to OCCUPY Iraq). Whillst the regular army - and also the IRG - is quite large, it still isn't big enough for the job, and it lacks appropriate training, logistics support, and equipment. So - for me - that part of your scenario doesn't really hold up. If they where to attempt such, then I expect that neighbouring countries would unite against them. Saudi doesn't have much of an army, but it does have a sophisticated air force (including AWACS), as does Turkey. Israel likewise, amongst a host of other hardware. Between them they could bar Iraqi airspace to Iranian aircraft (such as remain), and interdict ground troop movement. There would be little need for the US or UK to intervene.

Meow Purr.

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Would you prefer a Sunni/Shiite civil war, that not only takes place in Iraq, but the entire M.E. You cannot put them in the same democratic basket as ourselves. Without a power balance in Iraq, there will be War in the Middle East. - Sunni vs. Shiite nations.

edit:

A war that will also see all nations invloved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO (shanghai cooperation organization)...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their intrests. The potential is there for WWIII.

By the way, that (divide the power among sect/religions) system has already been implemented in Lebanon by the French before they left... we know the disastrous results from that.

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we know the disastrous results from that.

Lebonan was invaded by Syria and the disaster is called Hezbollah and they're financed by both Syria and Iran for the distruction of Israel.

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Lebonan was invaded by Syria and the disaster is called Hezbollah and they're financed by both Syria and Iran for the distruction of Israel.

You are talking 90s, I am talking 70s and 80s.

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You are talking 90s, I am talking 70s and 80s.

What do you suggest the world should do about Iraq and why?

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What do you suggest the world should do about Iraq and why?

Build a fence around it and let them sort it out. After a while open the gate, have a look and see, if they haven't figured it out close the gate again.

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Build a fence around it and let them sort it out. After a while open the gate, have a look and see, if they haven't figured it out close the gate again.

No... build a WALL, and then fill it up with water :P

Just kidding... in general, pull out and leave them to sort it out (or not) themselves.

Meow Purr.

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No... build a WALL, and then fill it up with water :P

Meow Purr.

Wouldn't that make the day of the bible thumpers? Finally a prove that the deluge could have happened. Somebody needs to build a boat to prove the second part :innocent:

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No... build a WALL, and then fill it up with water :P

Just kidding... in general, pull out and leave them to sort it out (or not) themselves.

Meow Purr.

If we pull out, what will fill the vacuum? Do you honestly believe that Iran and Saudi Arabia will stay out? ...no they won't, Iraq will become a battle ground between Shiite and Sunni nations and the world's oil supply will be in jeopardy. This will bring back US/UK forces to the region (at much greater cost both in lives and resources) and everyone else who has a stake in M.E. oil will be there fighting too.

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If we pull out, what will fill the vacuum? Do you honestly believe that Iran and Saudi Arabia will stay out? ...no they won't, Iraq will become a battle ground between Shiite and Sunni nations and the world's oil supply will be in jeopardy. This will bring back US/UK forces to the region (at much greater cost both in lives and resources) and everyone else who has a stake in M.E. oil will be there fighting too.

If we stay sooner or later we will be so dead broke that the troops have to hitch-hike home. Nobody could afford this war to start with and soon nobody will lend any money to continue it. The result will always be the same. The question is only if sooner or later.

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If we pull out, what will fill the vacuum? Do you honestly believe that Iran and Saudi Arabia will stay out? ...no they won't, Iraq will become a battle ground between Shiite and Sunni nations and the world's oil supply will be in jeopardy. This will bring back US/UK forces to the region (at much greater cost both in lives and resources) and everyone else who has a stake in M.E. oil will be there fighting too.

Well, that's a point of view, but again I disagree.

When you say that "Iraq will become a battleground", I assume you mean that there will be civil war ? Well... so what if there is ? Eventually one side or the other will win, or perhaps the country will divide into sunni/shia/kurd mini-countries. Either way, I don't see why this requires our intervention.

If you mean that other countries will invade, then - again - I respectively disagree. Iran lacks the capability to invade and occupy Iraq. Saudi CERTAINLY lacks the capability.

As for the "worlds oil supplies" - Iraq is not that important an oil supplier. If the oil stays in the ground during the civil war, then so what ? It will become available eventually. There may be price fluctuations, but other OPEC countries will fill the gap. Iraq has been exporting VERY little oil for the last 3 years, and the world hasn't come to an end yet.

I wonder if you are predicating your concernt of the "worlds oil supply in jeapardy" on the idea that - somehow - the larger oil exporters (Saudi, for example) would somehow suffer during the integrum period in Iraq ? Iran lacks the ability to occupy Saudi: other countries WOULD come to Saudi's aid in the event of an attack, but the attack would be crushed very rapidly, and would certainly not turn into a general Middle East war. (as an illustration, look at a map of the middle east, and consider how hard it would be for Iran to attempt an invasion, let alone an occupation. As a corrollary, consider how easy it would be to crush any such attempted invasion.)

Thus far, I don't find your scenario realistic, but I look forwards to your elucidation of it.

Meow Purr. :)

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