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Startraveler

And the pendulum swings back

27 posts in this topic

McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48

Ohio: 49-47 Obama

North Carolina: 48-47 McCain

Indiana: 51-45 McCain

Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.

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McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48

Ohio: 49-47 Obama

North Carolina: 48-47 McCain

Indiana: 51-45 McCain

Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.

I like the real clear politics sites you used, thats the one I ckeck up on. I haven't seen any bounce for Obama on that site. I must say that it all seems really close now since the convention bounce its been so even going by the Electoral College polls.

RealClearPolitics Electoral College

Also if you notice that CNN uses registered voters and everyone elses uses likely voters. LV polls are much better and show a much better picture of whats going on.

Edited by Caesar

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McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48

Ohio: 49-47 Obama

North Carolina: 48-47 McCain

Indiana: 51-45 McCain

Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.

Swings back???

Obama had a good lead on polls that was gone.

You just making yourself feel good here .

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I haven't seen any bounce for Obama on that site.

Did you follow the link? He's now up, from being tied when I posted this yesterday. Polls go in descending order of date:

RCP Average 09/07 - 09/16 -- 45.3 46.2 Obama +0.9

CBS News/NY Times 09/12 - 09/16 LV 44 49 Obama +5

Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/16 987 LV 45 49 Obama +4

Gallup Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 2787 RV 45 47 Obama +2

Rasmussen Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 3000 LV 48 47 McCain +1

Hotline/FD Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 909 RV 42 45 Obama +3

Reuters/Zogby 09/11 - 09/13 1008 LV 45 47 Obama +2

Newsweek 09/10 - 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie

Battleground* 09/07 - 09/11 1000 LV 48 44 McCain +4

FOX News 09/08 - 09/09 900 RV 45 42 McCain +3

The latest poll, for example, the NYT poll showing a 5-point Obama lead, is based on likely voters. As is the Q-poll before it showing Obama up 4.

As I said, watch for the electoral college map to start swinging to better reflect the change in the national polls (the EC tends to lag the national polls).

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Swings back???

Obama had a good lead on polls that was gone.

You just making yourself feel good here .

...?

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only 30% of the people who registered to vote will vote maybe.

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only 30% of the people who registered to vote will vote maybe.

So 70% of Americans are quite smart after all.

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Given the situation - an unpopular President, unpopular war, weak economy, falling stock market, etc - those numbers are terrible for Obama.

He should be sweeping the floor with McCaine if he really is being accepted and believed by the electorate.

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So 70% of Americans are quite smart after all.

No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.

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No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.

Agreed.

Whether you like the candidates or not the reality is the next President will be McCaine or Obama. So you can either participate and have a say or stay out and be quiet with whoever gets elected.

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No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.

Okay...

70% of Americans who are registered to vote are quite smart after all. Happy Now. :D

So you can either participate and have a say or stay out and be quiet with whoever gets elected.

So you're forcing someone to vote for a candidate (could be any of 'em) they don't want otherwise they can't have an opinion on who gets elected. I don't agree with that, I'm not voting because I can't be bothered to. If you can't be bothered then yes, fine, you have no right to have an opinion on whoever gets elected. But that isn't why I'm not voting, I abstain because I have no faith in politicians, because I don't believe any of the candidates deserve to have the view from the oval office. So why, under those circumstances, should i have to give up my right of opinion because I don't vote.

It's a case of either voting for someone you don't believe in or, not voting and having you political beliefs suspended for 4 years. IMO that isnt fair.

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You can always support a third party as I do. That is making your voice heard. Boycotting does nothing.

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So you're forcing someone to vote for a candidate (could be any of 'em) they don't want otherwise they can't have an opinion on who gets elected.

Basically, yes.

You can cry all you want but the reality is the next President is going to be McCaine or Obama. Wishing there was another candidate at this point is just fantasy at best, being childish at worse. Maybe next time around but not this one. So you can either make the best of the situation or stay out of it and don't complain with what you get.

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Basically, yes.

Fair enough, that was blunt :D

You can always support a third party as I do. That is making your voice heard. Boycotting does nothing.

Remind's me of the Simpsons.

Kang: It's a two party system, you have to vote for someone

Man: Well I believe I'll vote for a third party

Kodus: Go ahead, throw your vote away

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You can always support a third party as I do. That is making your voice heard. Boycotting does nothing.

It's your right but a wasted vote. At best you'll definately get a candidate you don't want like Perot did to Bush/Clinton.

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Ah yes. Throwing away your vote. On one hand we can support someone we don't agree with furthering the problem, or we can make a tiny difference that will slowly, over generations, strengthen the third parties until one day our goals are achieved. People have the wrong mentality.

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It's your right but a wasted vote. At best you'll definately get a candidate you don't want like Perot did to Bush/Clinton.

It isn't wasted. It is making a difference over time. Neither candidate represents me and it is my duty to make my voice heard. If everyone started voting for who they truly believed in, the third parties would slowly get a voice. You don't have to see immediate results to make a difference.

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As the country stands now a 3rd party candidate will never get nominated. Just won't happen. The closest that ever came was Perot and his running was a slap against Bush. Nader, Paul etc will never ever ever ever be nominated. That's just fact. Not slighting your right to support another candidate. But the reality is at this point in history the President will always be a Republican or Democrat. Not an independent or 3rd party. Just isn't going to happen.

Look at it like this: You're hungry. You go into the only deli for miles around. They only have fried pork rinds or mustard pretzels. You only choice is to pick one of those foods or go hungry. Complaining about your lack of choices will do no good.

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As the country stands now a 3rd party candidate will never get nominated. Just won't happen. The closest that ever came was Perot and his running was a slap against Bush. Nader, Paul etc will never ever ever ever be nominated. That's just fact. Not slighting your right to support another candidate. But the reality is at this point in history the President will always be a Republican or Democrat. Not an independent or 3rd party. Just isn't going to happen.

Half your statements are true and half are false. At this point in US history all of our presidents will be Republican or Democrat. However, if the third party movement continues to pick up momentum, five or six elections down the road, a third party candidate may win.

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Half your statements are true and half are false. At this point in US history all of our presidents will be Republican or Democrat. However, if the third party movement continues to pick up momentum, five or six elections down the road, a third party candidate may win.

That's what people said in 1992 when Perot ran. Didn't go anywhere.

Maybe one day, when a 3rd party gets more than 20% of the popular vote then it will happen. But not when it's in the single digits.

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That's what people said in 1992 when Perot ran. Didn't go anywhere.

Maybe one day, when a 3rd party gets more than 20% of the popular vote then it will happen. But not when it's in the single digits.

Exactly. It'll take a long time. However, if I don't support that candidate, it won't happen.

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Exactly. It'll take a long time. However, if I don't support that candidate, it won't happen.

That's fine. But don't cry in the interim. Or if it never happens.

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That's fine. But don't cry in the interim. Or if it never happens.

Two things. I can cry if I want to, I have every right. Also, I'm not sure why you'd even say that.

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Two things. I can cry if I want to, I have every right.

If you do please keep it to yourself. :)

Also, I'm not sure why you'd even say that.

Explain

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