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rideron

"Obama/Bradley Effect";general election polls

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THis is an article from back in Feb. re: the actual New Hampshire Democratic primary results vs. pre-primary poll numbers. The "Bradley Effect" was apparently at play even among Dem primary voters.

What might be going on now among General Election voters and the poll numbers? Early on, some commentators were saying Obama would need a least a 10-15 point poll lead to cancel out the "Bradley Effect" even in the Democratic primaries...

"Looks like Andrew Sullivan has brought up something we've been talking about here at the Agonist for a while: the prospensity of folks to lie to pollsters about voting for a black person, because they feel a bit ashamed of their racism, then going out and not voting for them.

It's called the Bradley effect and a lot of people thought it had faded. But New Hampshire suggests it may not have. One data point doesn't make a case, but the thing I always come back to is the infamous study where blacks with the exact same resumes as whites got one third less interview requests.(pdf)

America's a racist society and acknowledging that is just dealing with the world as it is, rather than the way we'd like it to be. I hope the Bradley effect isn't what happened in New Hampshire and I hope that America is ready for a black president. We'll see if there are significant gaps between polls and end-results elsewhere. If there are, the Bradley effect may still be alive and kicking--with Obama on the receiving end.

I'm not a fan of Obama's, but the Bradley effect would be a very sad and unfair way for him to lose the nomination.

Photo Credit: Alison Harger

Ian Welsh January 9, 2008 - 12:48am

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THis is an article from back in Feb. re: the actual New Hampshire Democratic primary results vs. pre-primary poll numbers. The "Bradley Effect" was apparently at play even among Dem primary voters.

What might be going on now among General Election voters and the poll numbers? Early on, some commentators were saying Obama would need a least a 10-15 point poll lead to cancel out the "Bradley Effect" even in the Democratic primaries...

"Looks like Andrew Sullivan has brought up something we've been talking about here at the Agonist for a while: the prospensity of folks to lie to pollsters about voting for a black person, because they feel a bit ashamed of their racism, then going out and not voting for them.

It's called the Bradley effect and a lot of people thought it had faded. But New Hampshire suggests it may not have. One data point doesn't make a case, but the thing I always come back to is the infamous study where blacks with the exact same resumes as whites got one third less interview requests.(pdf)

America's a racist society and acknowledging that is just dealing with the world as it is, rather than the way we'd like it to be. I hope the Bradley effect isn't what happened in New Hampshire and I hope that America is ready for a black president. We'll see if there are significant gaps between polls and end-results elsewhere. If there are, the Bradley effect may still be alive and kicking--with Obama on the receiving end.

I'm not a fan of Obama's, but the Bradley effect would be a very sad and unfair way for him to lose the nomination.

Photo Credit: Alison Harger

Ian Welsh January 9, 2008 - 12:48am

I don't think color is an issue nor should be ....Obama is the best man we have right now for the job...

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I thought there was a "Bradley Effect" thread already.

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