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Little Fish

No warming for 15 years

91 posts in this topic

Excuse me while I get a hammer and start smashing my own teeth in...

Has anybody got a clue about the Earth's climate...

Anybody?

Anybody?

:wacko:

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Interesting article...be nice if it had more sources of this "opinion".

I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change". You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns. I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is. Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not. But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity. Does mankind have an influence on it? I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it. If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity? No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren. Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile". It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly. If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.

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You might want to check the arithmetic. I just did:

Temperatures since 1996:

1996 43

1997 47

1998 77

1999 51

2000 50

2001 60

2002 71

2003 70

2004 63

2005 80

2006 70

2007 78

2008 57

2009 72

2010 86

2011 72

Temperatures are in hundredths of a degree centigrade above the 1951-1980 global mean temperature.

Since 1996, temperatures have risen at an average rate of 0.01775 degrees centigrade per year, based on a simple straight-line model. 43% of the variation is "explained" by the model. The standard error is 0.01040 degrees centigrade. The probability of accepting a false conclusion is one part in 175.

The "global-warming-is-over" claim is a myth.

Data source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

If we're going to keep having these discussions, we might first want to talk about why short-range trends don't really show what is going on. If this were a 30-year time line instead of fifteen, it would be harder to fit.

Doug

P.S.: I decided to check the 30-year trend while I was at it. Since 1980, the temperature increase has averaged 0.02714 degrees centigrade per year. A straight-line model accounted for 72.8% of the variation. Probability of accepting a false conclusion was less than one part in 10,000.

I also tried a parabola and a cubic. Neither fit. At 95% confidence, warming didn't even slow down during the mid-2000s.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change". You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns. I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is. Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not. But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.

"Climate chnnge" has tended to replace "global warming" in the lexicon because it is more inclusive. It doesn't sound quite right to apply "global warming" to changes in precipitation.

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity. Does mankind have an influence on it? I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it. If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity? No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren. Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile". It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly. If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.

Well stated.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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the article refers to the met office, but you are using a different dataset, one that uses US land temperature readings in urban areas where the type of paint used on the recording equpiment can give false high readings much higher than the numbers you've shown.

what does the satellite data say?

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co2 has gone up quite a bit over the last 15 years, where was the temperature increase?

co2 went up according to manua loa about by the same amount over the preceeding 15 year period.

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the article refers to the met office, but you are using a different dataset, one that uses US land temperature readings in urban areas where the type of paint used on the recording equpiment can give false high readings much higher than the numbers you've shown.

what does the satellite data say?

Unless I missed something in the article you cited, it doesn't provide a source for either the study it is commenting on or a reference for the dataset the study used. The met publishes data from over 5000 stations. So which dataset are you talking about?

Doug

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co2 has gone up quite a bit over the last 15 years, where was the temperature increase?

co2 went up according to manua loa about by the same amount over the preceeding 15 year period.

2010 was the hottest year on record, with 2005 right behind. A one-year drop in average temps is not exactly a trend.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were the wettest years on record in central Noth America. It is tempting to blame that on climate change, but I don't really think there's enough data to warrant that conclusion - yet. Strange weather continued worldwide through 2011 and even though rainfall is higher and it is winter, we are setting new record highs almost daily.

Solar output may (or may not) be dropping. If it is dropping, but temperatures don't fall by a similar proportion, you have evidence for global warming, even in the face of declining temperatures.

The pattern of a severe late-winter freeze, followed by severe summer drought, is a common one in Oklahoma/Arkansas. It happened nine times in the twentieth century and most-recently in 2011. I think I see evidence for it in tree rings from Henryetta, OK in 1785 and 1795. It's nothing new. But in 2011, with only one exception, temps went above 100 degrees F. for six consecutive weeks. And that IS new.

If I remember correctly, the last solar maximum was in 2009. So if temps are correlated with solar output, shouldn't 2010 be colder than 2009?

Doug

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Unless I missed something in the article you cited, it doesn't provide a source for either the study it is commenting on or a reference for the dataset the study used. The met publishes data from over 5000 stations. So which dataset are you talking about?

Doug

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997

http://times247.com/articles/global-warming-trend-ended-in-1997-new-data-shows

Maybe someone should visit the respective websites to read the data?

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Where I live we had our hottest summer on record last year, so far this summer has been the mildest in a long time. Weather is all over the place.

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The planet has been here four and a half billion years. We've been here, what? A hundred thousand? Maybe two hundred thousand? And we've only been engaged in heavy industry for a little over two hundred years. Two hundred years versus four and a half billion. And we have the CONCEIT to think that somehow we're a threat? That somehow we're gonna put in jeopardy this beautiful little blue-green ball that's just a-floatin' around the sun?

The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles; hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors; worlwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages... And we think some plastic bags, and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet... the planet... the planet isn't going anywhere. WE ARE!

[George Carlin]

Edited by Jaygatz

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Excuse me while I get a hammer and start smashing my own teeth in...

Has anybody got a clue about the Earth's climate...

Anybody?

Anybody?

:wacko:

:tu:

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Interesting article...be nice if it had more sources of this "opinion".

I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change". You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns. I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is. Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not. But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity. Does mankind have an influence on it? I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it. If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity? No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren. Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile". It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly. If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.

I was going to comment, but then I read this and realized I did not have to. Excellent post. :tu:

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Do people realize that it takes 450 cars 1 year to emit the same amount of waste,as it takes 1 aircraft flying 1 way from London to New York,and how many vapour trails do you see going over your house per day on that flight path.I rest my case...

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Thanks for resting your case, Spud, but no one claims that cars are the only problem. We spew too much crap into the environment. Some people defend that way of doing things and some people can see the obvious stupidity of it.

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http://times247.com/articles/global-warming-trend-ended-in-1997-new-data-shows

Maybe someone should visit the respective websites to read the data?

Having read your post and the link, I still don't find a citation. Who did the study? Where was the research article published? What datset did they use?

I want to re-run the numbers myself so I can check them and I can't do that from a newspaper article.

Doug

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Thanks for resting your case, Spud, but no one claims that cars are the only problem. We spew too much crap into the environment. Some people defend that way of doing things and some people can see the obvious stupidity of it.

applies to the UK. - i think everyone agrees pollution is bad, we are doing our best in reducing the amount of pollution and we are winning the fight especially, just look at the UK and how clean our rivers and off shore waters are. look at how clean towns and cities are compared to yesteryear. look at the tough regulation placed on farming and industry. we just need to continue down this path. no need to cripple ourselves in the process.

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applies to the UK. - i think everyone agrees pollution is bad, we are doing our best in reducing the amount of pollution and we are winning the fight especially, just look at the UK and how clean our rivers and off shore waters are. look at how clean towns and cities are compared to yesteryear. look at the tough regulation placed on farming and industry. we just need to continue down this path. no need to cripple ourselves in the process.

Just a thought: Black carbon (soot) contributes to warming, is a major component of pollution, kills people who have to breathe it, especially folks with asthma and breathing difficulties, and washes out of the air in a matter of days. By controlling soot we could improve our health and cool the planet and do it in a matter of weeks.

CO2, on the other hand, remains in the air for roughly a century, and at ambient concentrations, has no major effects on health.

Why do we want to apply the hard remedies when we haven't even tried the easy stuff?

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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Al Gore must be hating this! Surprised he and his cronies couldn't cover this story up or twist the info to his advantage. "Man made" global warming is the biggest hoax ever concocted.

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The fox news of England

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Interesting article...be nice if it had more sources of this "opinion".

Good post and well said. The only person of reason seems to be Judith Curry "The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun"

Why do I feel like I'm back in the 80's? "Milk is good for you, milk is bad for you, eggs are bad, eggs are good " blah blah. If we could get special interest money out of the picture things might get a little clearer but I think we're still stuck with the prospect of trying to make long term projections in a complex system that we barely understand.

Having said all that. Let's quit treating our house like a sewer and get off oil anyway. Its icky.

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HERE IS MY ABSOLUTELY UGLY RAGE ON THIS....AND IT IS UGLY...

There is always going to be...unfortunately...extremist...those that refuse to acknowledge a commonality of cause and effect. It is as if they almost cannot allow themselves to accept the fact that humans can and often do manifest themselves as a virus...a plague.

I personally think if we do not come to grips with population...we are going to have serious issues down the road. Yes, I suppose I support a plan to limit childbirth...a plan, maybe a lottery...I don't have a perfect answer...all I know is unbridled procreation is ignorant at best and stupid at worst. As much as we want to believe that life is so wonderful and the "mystic" creator will always afford a way...that is ca-ca, bs, stupid....it's not in there. You cannot continue to grow a population with dwindling resources...no matter what your preacher says...he is retarded....shoot him for being stupid and a propagator of lies...

Listen folks...this world can only support so many people...get a grip and understand that as a scientific fact. Until we unlock new technologies on food growth and propagation....there is a limit...get used to it...get over your selfish ass self and understand your personal goals of a basketball team is stupid and selfish...and needs to be shot down...in the head if necessary...I have no mercy for ignorant oblivion...join the whole or...else...

Those that think they are so special that there personal dreams matter and the dreams of everyone else is secondary...well...please step into this noxious chamber...i have a present for you...you are stupid and selfish.

I like to be open minded...I like to entertain multiple thought patterns...I like to think many things are possible....let me give the idiocracy a clue....

there is only so much food prepared each year...there is only so much energy manufactured each year...to procreate beyond that is ****g stupid and naive...those that don't like that can suck it...it is truth....prepare for the embrace of the skeletal one....you asked for it by being short sighted and naive...you get exactly what you deserve...starvation and hard times...

I tried to stop this years ago and no one would listen to me...so prepare yourself for what is coming...unbridled childbirth = suffering and starvation....accept it...you caused it...this is Your FAULT....

SORRY....My crap posted by accident....but I stand by the position...ignorance is a volcanoe and brilliance is a dieing star...you folks are morons and need whatever hammer of the gods fall on your heads for being so god damned stupid....die and be done with it....

Edited by Damrod

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I still don't get why we have to do it your folks way with the going green. There are these folks around my town with bumper stickers about going veg and saving the planet. Others say electric cars will. The real problem isn't cars or planes it's humans we need less of you. The vast majority of us lead unexamined pathetic lives that return less than we take. Most of our lives are better not lived. If you want to save the rain forests you should be voting for the depeopling of those regions and then to maintain them as green belts where humans are not allowed.

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