if they attack iran will it start ww3 ?

[sean6]

I just like to know what unexplained-mysteries thinks, if they attack iran will it start ww3 ?

[Mr.United_Nations]

No, more like a cold war, a war with words and that will be it and what's this got to do with Science and Space?

[sean6]

No, more like a cold war, a war with words and that will be it and what's this got to do with Science and Space?

science and space ? this is Earth, Disasters and the Environment

Edited February 19, 2012 by sean6

[Little Fish]

yes, there is a good chance that will happen.

iran has tens of thousands of missiles, they are not going to stand still if they are bombed. it is likely they will fire some (maybe many thousands) at israel. israel will then probably nuke them. russia will at least support iran in the cold war sense, china maybe hot war sense since they get a lot of their oil from iran, so their strategic interests would be threatened.

interestingly the RAND corporation, a think tank that provides long term strategy and analysis for government policy stated in 2008 that the united states requires a world war to overcome its economic problems, so one should not think that a world war would be undesired by the powers that be.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/rand-lobbies-pentagon-start-war-to-save-us-economy.html

[+and-then]

Interesting that the clip didn't let Romney finish his thought about the consequences of not attacking Iran. Anyway, JMO but I don't think nuclear missiles get thrown around by anyone as long as no chemical or biological weapons(WMD) are used against Israel. The mullahs will want to save what they can and will not attack US forces in the region. They'll use Hamas and Hizballah to attack Israel and Israel will dismantle both with probably massive civilian casualties. Keep in mind that Hamas and Hizballah think they win in the court of world opinion if Israel kills civilians. It's why both of them hide their weapons and fighters among civilians. Israel tried to fight half heartedly in 2006 and 2009 with these entities and lost both times. They won't make the same mistake again. They will essentially END them both as a threat. The UN will be absolutely apoplectic with anger but Israel has almost no friends there anyhow. And the UN has proven itself utterly useless.

If Egypt throws in then they lose US aid and their military gets decimated. The one disturbing wildcard is Syria. Assad is under intense pressure and he might miscalculate and attack Israel with WMD. In that case Israel leaves Damascus a smoking hole in the sand and all bets are off...

Even then I don't expect nukes to be used by Russia, China or the US. So it will be a regional bloodbath but not a true worldwide conflict.

[Little Fish]

The mullahs will want to save what they can and will not attack US forces in the region

I think it is a mistake to think that.

it is logical to assume iran will launch missiles at israel's dimona nuclear plant if the US or israel bomb its nuclear facilities. it is a proportional response and justifiable. any conventional escalation from that point would have to come from the US which is a siting duck in the gulf for irans sunburn and yakhont missiles.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Little Fish

[+and-then]

I think it is a mistake to think that.

it is logical to assume iran will launch missiles at israel's dimona nuclear plant if the US or israel bomb its nuclear facilities. it is a proportional response and justifiable. any conventional escalation from that point would have to come from the US which is a siting duck in the gulf for irans sunburn and yakhont missiles.

They may well launch against Israel if the US is not involved initially. But I still think that if the US helps in the attack we will only see small scale attacks against embassies and such or possibly even against interests inside the country and not against forces in the theater. US weapons are far superior to anything the Russians or Chinese produce and while it is possible we will suffer losses I don't think Iran would trade it's IRGC for a couple of ships sunk and a few hundred dead sailors. If they actually got lucky and sank a US vessel then the IRGC would be pounded into oblivion. They would lose thousands as well as infrastructure nodes that would be very expensive to replace. And don't forget that the Ayatollahs fear their own citizens more than they fear the US or Israel. They would want a strong Republican Guard left as a Praetorian to protect themselves.

For me this is evidence of how important acquiring the bomb is for them. They are risking everything to acquire it and I believe they've made the calculation that Israel cannot attack and Obama won't attack. And they may well be correct.

[NemoMysterio]

If world leaders and high up government people read this site I hope they read this....how 'bout you just **** and don't do ****? How bout that? Just throw down nuclear arms and spend that money on cheaper energy and food production?

Honestly you make me want to bury my face in my hands. We could do great things and discover new wonders yet all you world leaders ever seem to want to do is p*** on each others chips....

[sean6]

found this

Edited February 19, 2012 by sean6

[sean6]

If world leaders and high up government people read this site I hope they read this....how 'bout you just **** and don't do ****? How bout that? Just throw down nuclear arms and spend that money on cheaper energy and food production?

Honestly you make me want to bury my face in my hands. We could do great things and discover new wonders yet all you world leaders ever seem to want to do is p*** on each others chips....

you right!!

[spud the mackem]

Camel jockeys rattling their sabres again,they wont get nuked by anyone as there is too much oil subsurface,but if they start it,Israel and ships in the gulf maybe the first target,but I wouldnt fancy their chances if they upset Israel.

[+and-then]

found this

Thanks...it was interesting but I still don't think global nuclear war is going to happen over Iran.

[Little Fish]

found this

as always adrian salbuchi is spot on.

[Little Fish]

They may well launch against Israel if the US is not involved initially. But I still think that if the US helps in the attack we will only see small scale attacks against embassies and such or possibly even against interests inside the country and not against forces in the theater.

you will see both. it's not a case of one or the other. why would iran not attack US ships in the gulf if they are at war with the US? iran has said they will block the straits if they are attacked, which they can do easily. US have said they will keep the straights open. the only way the US can keep the straits open is to invade and hold the Arabistan region of iran. iran will not let that happen. they fought a bloody 8 year war with iraq over that territory, of course they will attack US ships.

US weapons are far superior to anything the Russians or Chinese produce

germany had better weapons than the soviets in ww2. it's will that wins wars not technology, vietnam? it has been argued than US has no defence against sunburn cruise missiles, they travel fast, far and low with high accuracy and are easily launched, unless the US has a technology we don't know about, I'd say any US ship in the gulf will certainly be sunk including carriers.

and while it is possible we will suffer losses I don't think Iran would trade it's IRGC for a couple of ships sunk and a few hundred dead sailors. If they actually got lucky and sank a US vessel then the IRGC would be pounded into oblivion.

and then? kill all 80 million iranians?

They would lose thousands as well as infrastructure nodes that would be very expensive to replace.

which is no different to what will happen if they do nothing. the iranian "nuclear program" cannot be removed by a couple of bombing runs.

And don't forget that the Ayatollahs fear their own citizens more than they fear the US or Israel. They would want a strong Republican Guard left as a Praetorian to protect themselves.

For me this is evidence of how important acquiring the bomb is for them. They are risking everything to acquire it and I believe they've made the calculation that Israel cannot attack and Obama won't attack. And they may well be correct.

this is neocon fantasies. if you bomb iran, the citizens will rally around their government. The US is duty bound under treaty to defend israel. if israel attacks, the US will be dragged in no matter who is president.

[Little Fish]

Thanks...it was interesting but I still don't think global nuclear war is going to happen over Iran.

don't be so sure. china has said it would regard an attack on iran as an attack on itself. they have strategic interest and military cooperation with iran, china gets most of its oil from iran. if they allow the US to conquer iran, then the US will have its thumb on china's main artery.

don't forget russia, they have a naval base in tartus, syria. this is their only link to the meditteranean sea. they won't give that up.

Edited February 20, 2012 by Little Fish

[Little Fish]

Syria Receives 72 Yakhont Missiles from Russia

"mobile launchers each carrying two 3M55E Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles capable of striking surface targets on land and at sea at a range of 300 km, with their devastating 200 kg warhead"

http://defense-update.com/20111203_syria-receives-yakhont-missiles.html

Iran's Arsenal Of Sunburn Missiles Is More Than Enough To Close The Strait

"Iran possesses a build up of anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are top-notch weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the U.S., and specifically the aircraft carrier task force"

"The Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, designed to fly as low as 9 feet above ground/water at more than 1,500 miles per hour (mach 2+). The missile uses a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. Given their low cost, they’re perfectly suited for close quarter naval conflict in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf."

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-08/news/31036419_1_anti-ship-defense-system-target-missile

Edited February 20, 2012 by Little Fish

[Ashotep]

I really don't think we will attack Iran unless they do something to provoke it by attacking one of our ships or trying to close off the strait of Hormuz. As far as those Sunburn missiles I bet we know where they are.

[Little Fish]

I really don't think we will attack Iran

if you read the public strategy documents and listen to those who have gone public from inside the pentagon such as wesley clark, you should realise there is every intention to attack iran. google the document "which path to persia".

unless they do something to provoke it by attacking one of our ships

iran does not want a war. those that want a war within israel and the US can easily sink one of their own ships and blame iran. this has been the MO in almost every conflcit - uss liberty, uss lucitania, USS maine, gulf of tonkin. its called a false flag. if a ship hgets sunk I would be very skeptical about who we are told did the sinking.

or trying to close off the strait of Hormuz. As far as those Sunburn missiles I bet we know where they are.

they are small and mobile. they can be launched from small speedboats or from land. iran is mountainous. there is absolutely no way we know where they are. Edited February 20, 2012 by Little Fish

[Doug1029]

if you read the public strategy documents and listen to those who have gone public from inside the pentagon such as wesley clark, you should realise there is every intention to attack iran. google the document "which path to persia".

Politically, Obama needs to keep the peace until after the election. If he wins, he has a choice: fight and win quickly (A risky proposition, but probably something the US could do), or try to keep the peace if at all possible (Less risky, but less popular among conservatives who he may have to placate.).

If he loses: he has six weeks or so to get a war going and stick his successor with the problem, setting up a loss (hopefully) for the next election.

There's also good ol' geopolitics at work. If we control Iran, we control Russia's oil. Russia ain't gonna sit still for that and that is probably why Iran is so bold.

Doug

[Little Fish]

a bit of gallows humour

1. Iran has threatened to fight back if attacked, and that's a war crime. War crimes must be punished.

2. My television says Iran has nukes. I'm sure it's true this time. Just like with North Korea. I'm sure they're next. We only bomb places that really truly have nukes and are in the Axis of Evil. Except Iraq, which was different.

3. Iraq didn't go so badly. Considering how lousy its government is, the place is better off with so many people having left or died. Really, that one couldn't have worked out better if we'd planned it.

4. When we threaten to cut off Iran's oil, Iran threatens to cut off Iran's oil, which is absolutely intolerable. What would we do without that oil? And what good is buying it if they want to sell it?

5. Iran was secretly behind 9-11. I read it online. And if it wasn't, that's worse. Iran hasn't attacked another nation in centuries, which means its next attack is guaranteed to be coming very soon.

6. Iranians are religious nuts, unlike Israelis and Americans. Most Israelis don't want to attack Iran, but the Holy Israeli government does. To oppose that decision would be to sin against God.

7. Iranians are so stupid that when we murder their scientists they try to hire a car dealer in Texas to hire a drug gang in Mexico to murder a Saudi ambassador in Washington, and then they don't do it -- just to make us look bad for catching them.

7. b. Oh, and stupid people should be bombed. They're not civilized.

8. War is good for the U.S. economy, and the Iranian economy too. Troops stationed in Iran would buy stuff. And women who survived the war would have more rights. Like in Virginia. We owe Iranians this after that little mishap in 1953.

9. This is the only way to unite the region. Either we bomb Iran and it swears its eternal love to us. Or, if necessary, we occupy Iran to liberate it like its neighbors. Which shouldn't take long. Look how well Afghanistan is going already.

10. They won't give our drone back. Enough said.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29414

[bouncer]

No, more like a cold war, a war with words and that will be it and what's this got to do with Science and Space?

science and space ? this is Earth, Disasters and the Environment

:w00t: :w00t: :w00t:

Nearly peed myself reading that..Hilarious....Ohhh... the dangers of surfing when high... dont you just hate embarassing yourself on public forums??

[Big Jim]

I'm going back to reading about Bigfoot and looking at ghost pictures. This is getting too scary.

[A rather obscure Bassoon]

don't be so sure. china has said it would regard an attack on iran as an attack on itself. they have strategic interest and military cooperation with iran, china gets most of its oil from iran. if they allow the US to conquer iran, then the US will have its thumb on china's main artery.

don't forget russia, they have a naval base in tartus, syria. this is their only link to the meditteranean sea. they won't give that up.

Agreed and another major conflict over something that hasn't been proved.If Isreal want to bomb Iran they will but they shouldn't then expect the rest of us to come running to their aid...

You reap what you sow and attacking Iran would be one step too far,with very big consequences for anyone involved..

[bouncer]

Agreed and another major conflict over something that hasn't been proved.If Isreal want to bomb Iran they will but they shouldn't then expect the rest of us to come running to their aid...

I dont think Israel expect that, they have in place the Samson Option, scary as can be, read this thoroughly

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

[badeskov]

if you read the public strategy documents and listen to those who have gone public from inside the pentagon such as wesley clark, you should realise there is every intention to attack iran. google the document "which path to persia".

Nonsense. They keep the option open. Big difference.

iran does not want a war.

Yet, the same Iranian leaders proclaim Israel should be eradicated from the map, threaten to close the Hormuz strait and does all kinds of other provocations.

those that want a war within israel and the US can easily sink one of their own ships and blame iran.

Nonsense. Nobody is interested in getting into a war with Iran. BUt necessity might dictate it if they continue their erratic behavior.

this has been the MO in almost every conflcit - uss liberty, uss lucitania, USS maine, gulf of tonkin. its called a false flag. if a ship hgets sunk I would be very skeptical about who we are told did the sinking.

OK, I think you forgot your tinfoil hat when you sat down to write this. Rarely do I see such imaginative ramblings, by all means of respect - outside of your posts, that is.

Cheers,

Badeskov