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Still Waters

Is the world sitting on a tinderbox?

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With Iran forced into nuclear talks, Syria’s ceasefire barely holding and North Korea snubbing the West, could these rogue states threaten global stability?

The conference centre was cleared of alcohol, a prayer room prepared and female officials advised to dress with a special touch of modesty.When Iran’s negotiators are in town, the challenge of hosting them without offending their fragile sensibilities follows in their wake.

These black-clad, silver-haired men came to Istanbul yesterday to do verbal battle with the world’s leading powers. With hardened realism, a diplomat warned beforehand that a wise observer would set his sights low.

Nonetheless, Iran is back at the negotiating table, formally meeting its adversaries for the first time in more than a year. Not only is the Islamic Republic talking again, but its leaders have quietly dropped a raft of preconditions and begun discussing their nuclear ambitions.

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For me, Syria is the most troubling. If Assad cannot maintain a ceasefire because the rebels won't give in, then the world is faced with no choice except to attack him or leave his people to be slaughtered. I think that eventually the world outcry will be so great against this monstrosity that Turkey, as part of a NATO mission, will impose a no fly zone and attempt to set up sanctuaries for the civilians (and rebels) within Syria. Assad cannot survive under those conditions and I think he could attack Israel as a diversion.

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Iran - Nothing new there i.e. perpetual 'nuclear talks' whereas no side will give in. A few months back I thought it could have gotten ugly over the strait of Hormuz, and it could have, but now the attention is shifted to Syria.

NK - Nothing new there either. Supposed NK's 'nuclear capability' is far overblown by the western media. This is one sad communist nation, shut-in and not a threat to anyone (except maybe their own people). There is always tension on the NK/SK border however, but I think the chances now are minor.

Syria - I think this one is the most troubling as well. It's tricky because Syria and Iran have signed a defensive pact some years back. Turkey, as the closest NATO member, is engaged heavily in arming Syrian rebels, undermining the peace plan. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also lobbying heavily for an intervention. And don't forget the Russian-built port from the times of the Cold War. As I understand the base is still staffed by Russian naval personnel. Last i heard, aircraft carrier Kuznetsov was on its way there.

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In a word, no

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it may come to that i honestly think so

the problem is each one of those are linked to each other

and the recent actions here are unbelieveable and i think it'll only get worse

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All three are in-influential on the political world scale, so the answer is no, although Iran, because of their oil and natural gas deposits could cause global shock waves in the financial markets around the world.

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