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OverSword

I was alarmist about climate change

25 posts in this topic

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From the article;

James Lovelock, the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism, has admitted to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, were too.

Really? How shocking.

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Sounds like they are trying to sell a book.

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Well: "before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable." comes from him, yes I would call that alarmist... But much worse is that now he uses that to sell his book and at the same time relativising the warming problem.

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I'd not actually heard any of the quotes attributed to James before - but yes, if he said them, then they certainly were alarmists and not in any way realistic.

It would be easy to say this 'turn around' is just publicity for his new book, except that at the age of 93 my guess is that he's not really seeking celebrity status or money. So I think it's just a genuine case of an old man who held a view and has since changed his mind. A bit. And anyone who hasn't done that themselves some time isn't human.

None of which has any bearing whatsoever on AGW etc.

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My link

From the article;

James Lovelock, the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism, has admitted to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, were too.

Really? How shocking.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Lovelock has been regarded as a kook by just about everybody. In your opinion, does his sudden realization that he'd made a mistake constitute a rejection of global warming?

Doug

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I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Lovelock has been regarded as a kook by just about everybody. In your opinion, does his sudden realization that he'd made a mistake constitute a rejection of global warming?

Doug

I am curious as well. Considering some of his quotes, I have a feeling that something is wrong with the whole case. Here. Comes from the OP source.

"The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened."

"The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now."

"The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that."

I don't know man. Seems like he is implying that climatologists have all been giving apocalyptic scenarios and still do to some extend.

I think he is exaggerating a bit on many points.

Anyways, you tell me what you think about the whole article. I don't really know what to think about it right now. I would need to make a bit of research.

Peace.

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I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Lovelock has been regarded as a kook by just about everybody. In your opinion, does his sudden realization that he'd made a mistake constitute a rejection of global warming?

Doug

No, I wouldn't go so far as to reject global warming. I would go so far as to speculate on how much of an influence man really has on it. In my uneducated opinion, debatable. My guess is this guy is coming out with this, and including others apocolyptic predictions, because he's worried about possible draconian measures being taken to counter it. An old man feeling guilty about the negative impact his life may have on the lives of others long after he's gone(?).

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From the OP Link...

“All 11 years of the 21st century so far (2001-2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century, 1998, was warmer than 2011,” it said.

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Posted (edited)

From the OP Link...

Yep. And it has been confirmed that this year's winter (2011-2012) was the warmest ever recorded. Here in Québec, that was no exeption. We have anihilated records like never before. More never-seen events as well. Temperature was at least 10°C over previous records (not average) for about a week in at least a dozen areas in March. We've had a day where the temperature even reached 27°C while average was around 2°C.

The unusually high temperature of 1998 is often used by "skeptics" to try to tell us that since following years haven't been as hot, global temperature have stopped rising and is even currently cooling.

Peace.

Edited by JayMark

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Posted (edited)

Well, in FL, right now it's 50-70 degrees again, and we're going into May. I'm not seeing the global warming here. This has actually been the coolest spring in a loooong time.

Edited by Spid3rCyd3

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Well, in FL, right now it's 50-70 degrees again, and we're going into May. I'm not seeing the global warming here. This has actually been the coolest spring in a loooong time.

Global warming dosen't mean temperature is rising everywhere. Just like you don't need to warm up every room in your house to raise it's global temperature.

The dynamics of heat distribution are quite complex.

We are also currently undergoing a unusually cool period this week even though last month we went through the hottest period ever that has been recorded in March.

Sure thing is that climate is quite indeed changing.

Peace.

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Anyways, you tell me what you think about the whole article. I don't really know what to think about it right now. I would need to make a bit of research.

Sounds like he's saying that early 1990s technology wasn't what it should have been. I'd have to agree with him there.

But, IPCC and nearly everybody else takes a trend at a point in time and panics over what will happen if the trend continues (It never does.). Our current stable temps seem to be the result of (1) reduced solar irradiance - we passed a low-point in the solar cycle in 2009; (2) burning of high-sulfur coal in Chinese coal-fired plants - the Chinese are adding scrubbers that will reduce sulfur emissions. There may be some other things going on, too - probably are. So, once soalr irradiance picks up again and China reduces its sulfur emissions, warming comes back.

And, as noted above, warming may have slowed down, but cooling certainly hasn't set in - it's still hotter than the hubs of hell.

Doug

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Sounds like he's saying that early 1990s technology wasn't what it should have been. I'd have to agree with him there.

But, IPCC and nearly everybody else takes a trend at a point in time and panics over what will happen if the trend continues (It never does.). Our current stable temps seem to be the result of (1) reduced solar irradiance - we passed a low-point in the solar cycle in 2009; (2) burning of high-sulfur coal in Chinese coal-fired plants - the Chinese are adding scrubbers that will reduce sulfur emissions. There may be some other things going on, too - probably are. So, once soalr irradiance picks up again and China reduces its sulfur emissions, warming comes back.

And, as noted above, warming may have slowed down, but cooling certainly hasn't set in - it's still hotter than the hubs of hell.

Doug

Fair enough for first part. It is important not to sound too alarmist but still be aware of the threat we are facing. I guess that the next IPCC report will be revelant about it all. Think it'll done by 2014 with first part coming in next year.

Do you know how long it takes for soalr irradiance's variations to have an impact on global temparature? Is there a significant delay here? And what is the main factor responsible of that delay? Is it in regards to heat distribution and absorption (thermodynamics)?

In 2009, we surely went through the sink but seems like we will reach cycle peak next year or about.

Do you know what is the current estimated negative forcing occuring from China's industrial activity?

Peace.

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Yep. And it has been confirmed that this year's winter (2011-2012) was the warmest ever recorded. Here in Québec, that was no exeption. We have anihilated records like never before. More never-seen events as well. Temperature was at least 10°C over previous records (not average) for about a week in at least a dozen areas in March. We've had a day where the temperature even reached 27°C while average was around 2°C.

The unusually high temperature of 1998 is often used by "skeptics" to try to tell us that since following years haven't been as hot, global temperature have stopped rising and is even currently cooling.

Peace.

If one plots the temps by year, one finds that 1998 was well above the curve. 2003 and 2005 were pretty close to what would be expected, though.

2006-2010 was slightly warmer than 2001-2005. Like it did in the 50s and early 60s, warming has slowed, but not stopped.

The 20th century, particularly the second half was the most-benign period known. On January 13, 1886, Wichita had a low of 46 F below zero. We had nothing to match it in the entire 20th century. Same story almost everywhere.

Doug

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Sure thing is that climate is quite indeed changing.

Peace.

Can i see your evidence?

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Posted (edited)

Can i see your evidence?

Could you be more specific? What evidence would suit your need?

All the observations that have been made around the world for decades are already good evidence to begin with in my opinion.

In regards to the whole thing, there are many things that can be debated but the fact that T° has increased and that it has an effect on climate is no longer debated.

Correct me if I'm wrong but global temperature is closely related to climate. They both are part of it. So if it increases or decreases on a global scale, I can hardly see how it is not a change in climate to begin with.

If you think that global temperature has no effect whatsoever on climate or simply that temperature hasen't increased since, let's say 1900, then I don't know what evidence would be good for you.

Maby Doug1o29 could provide some evidence from his work as well.

Peace.

Edited by JayMark

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Posted (edited)

Could you be more specific? What evidence would suit your need?

All the observations that have been made around the world for decades are already good evidence to begin with in my opinion.

In regards to the whole thing, there are many things that can be debated but the fact that T° has increased and that it has an effect on climate is no longer debated.

If you think that global temperature has no effect whatsoever on climate or simply that temperature hasen't increased since, let's say 1900, then I don't know what evidence would be good for you.

Peace.

I asked you a simple question. Can i please see your evidence?

It shouldn't really be that difficult to gather.

Maby Doug1o29 could provide some evidence from his work as well.

Peace.

You should be able to do that yourself.

I might just be screwing with you.

Edited by BFB

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I asked you a simple question. Can i please see your evidence?

It shouldn't really be that difficult to gather.

As seen from space, we can clearly see that the earth has caught on fire. This is due to abusive breathing, Jesus Christ, Al Gore and this unknown character.

Earth20on20Fire.jpg

godarch.gif

al-gore-global-warming.jpg

omfg-289x300.jpg

You should be able to do that yourself.

I might just be screwing with you.

You're funny.

:lol:

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Earth20on20Fire.jpg

godarch.gif

al-gore-global-warming.jpg

omfg-289x300.jpg

HAHAHA its settled :lol: BEST EVIDENCE EVER!! :tu:

I'm going to present this from now on when someone ask the question.

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Maby Doug1o29 could provide some evidence from his work as well.

My stuff is pretty much restricted to the Ouachitas and environs. And, yes, there is 1.33 degrees F. warming at Ft. Smith since 1965. Also, an increase in the number of low-pressure episodes, but no measureable change in precip.

I suggest you look up "Global temperature anomalies" on the NCDC website. I've posted the URL on UM before, but can't seem to find it just now.

Looks like my climate paper on the Ouachitas will come out next year. I think I can get it back to 1750, but not 1700 (not enough data back that far; might get it a little farther if I can include oak chronologies). On the subject of ice storms: seems to be a connection between volcanoes and ice storms. Several severe storms followed volcanic eruptions by zero to 3 years.

TAFN,

Doug

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Posted (edited)

HAHAHA its settled :lol: BEST EVIDENCE EVER!! :tu:

I'm going to present this from now on when someone ask the question.

Excellent. Glad we could work something out.

The Physics Behind It

- Our Lord Jesus Christ, as seen in the photo is clearly emmiting infrared radiations resulting in a "toaster effect" which is the brand new greenhouse effect from now on. On december the 21st, the toast will be ready and our planet will jump resulting in polar shift and alien encounter.

- Al Gore, as seen in the photo is scaring the heat out of our planet which results in sweating (sea level increase) and heat waves (global warming). His breath alone is responsible of the whole GHG increase which increases the "toaster effect" powered by Jesus. Apparently, NASA astronauts have reported hearing him yelling; "You get a job!".

- And the unknown character is another major GHG source. He occasionally likes to drink a cup of tea which melts the methane clathrates than have been resting in his bowels for at least 3 million years. Picture was taken during an intense gas passing episode which resulted in the emission of 56 billions cubic light years of methane.

Now I need to work on the prediction models. Seems like another few cubic femtometers of carbon dioxide could lead to a point of non-return.

The effects of climate change are very obvious by now. The increase of CO2 has initiated a new form of mutation in which people are turning into trees to easily adapt to a carbon dioxide saturated atmosphere.

Here are some picture. Beware, they are very shocking and could lead to gum diesease, also known as gingivitis.

Copyrighted_Image_Reuse_Prohibited_242734.jpg

a.aaa-paranormal-tree.jpg

Peace.

Edited by JayMark

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Posted (edited)

- Double Post -

Edited by JayMark

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Well, in FL, right now it's 50-70 degrees again, and we're going into May. I'm not seeing the global warming here. This has actually been the coolest spring in a loooong time.

Same here in Alabama and thank God...last summer was brutal. It started early and stayed long.

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Excellent. Glad we could work something out.

The Physics Behind It

- Our Lord Jesus Christ, as seen in the photo is clearly emmiting infrared radiations resulting in a "toaster effect" which is the brand new greenhouse effect from now on. On december the 21st, the toast will be ready and our planet will jump resulting in polar shift and alien encounter.

- Al Gore, as seen in the photo is scaring the heat out of our planet which results in sweating (sea level increase) and heat waves (global warming). His breath alone is responsible of the whole GHG increase which increases the "toaster effect" powered by Jesus. Apparently, NASA astronauts have reported hearing him yelling; "You get a job!".

- And the unknown character is another major GHG source. He occasionally likes to drink a cup of tea which melts the methane clathrates than have been resting in his bowels for at least 3 million years. Picture was taken during an intense gas passing episode which resulted in the emission of 56 billions cubic light years of methane.

Now I need to work on the prediction models. Seems like another few cubic femtometers of carbon dioxide could lead to a point of non-return.

The effects of climate change are very obvious by now. The increase of CO2 has initiated a new form of mutation in which people are turning into trees to easily adapt to a carbon dioxide saturated atmosphere.

Here are some picture. Beware, they are very shocking and could lead to gum diesease, also known as gingivitis.

Copyrighted_Image_Reuse_Prohibited_242734.jpg

a.aaa-paranormal-tree.jpg

Peace.

:lol:

HAHAHA thanks for the laugh Jaymark :tu:

The first pic could very well be my mother in law.

Good to see humor hasn't gone completely from this subforum.

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laugh.gif

HAHAHA thanks for the laugh Jaymark :tu:

The first pic could very well be my mother in law.

Good to see humor hasn't gone completely from this subforum.

No problem. I also think about using that as a new evidence of global warming whenever asked to provide evidence by a climato-skeptic. If scientific anwsers and current observations do not suit their desires, the only thing left is what I posted out.

Hell, I lost my virginity to the tooth fairy, went deer haunting with Santa Claus, have smoked a joint with Mother Teresa and have shown a Reptilian alien how to make authentic poutine. Hence why I know better than anybody about climatology.

*Points out at toilet paper holder*

You get a job! Global warming is no kidding! Yaaarrrgggggg!

*Tears his shirt*

Peace.

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