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Raptor Witness

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

42 posts in this topic

The official media, top government(NOAA,) and academic forecasts have just been released and look something like this.

As usual, the statistics seem pretty dry and boring, but perhaps we can liven things up a bit.

After all, this is 2012 and the season is heating up with two named storms already out of the gate, and it's not even opening day.

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Now that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially arrived, it's time to roll out my forecast here. I promised you that I would liven things up a bit, and I meant that, literally.

I first published my forecast earlier on the WeatherUnderground - April 5, 2012(Post 106.)

In the curious introduction, two butterflies are seen to appear front and center. For those who might have doubted that this was a serious weather forecast, you should know that I can skip a rock to the first two tropical systems that have appeared on the Atlantic canvas. Both Alberto and Beryl were named, exactly front and center with respect to my location. In fact, Beryl's center passed directly over my head, as if to underline the painted paradox for the state of confusion.

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As the arguable accuracy sinks in, and the mood becomes more somber, pay attention to what follows. The butterflies depicted in the sky are different from those that are pinned to the spreading board.

In meteorology school, students are taught to rely at least in part on their intuition. Sometimes it’s all you have, but it’s all a man living in the wilderness, needs.

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Very early for a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic coast, Tropical storm Beryl drenched the Carolinas, Georgia and northern Florida on Memorial Day weekend with lots of rainfall, strong winds and tidal surges in the Jacksonville Beach area. Two down, about 24 to go (hopefully not the total number of storms for the North Atlantic), and Beryl dissipated over the Southeast to begin the season with a downpour of biblical proportions. I'm concerned that Florida may have the most active period of hurricanes in 7 or 8 years, when about 8 of them hit the low-lying peninsular state...not gonna be a good year for Florida in all of its 3 coasts.

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Debby(Deborah) (Hebrew: דְבוֹרָה‎) is a feminine given name derived from זבורה Zhorah, a Hebrew word meaning "bee." Deborah was a heroine and prophetess in the Old Testament Book of Judges.

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Posted (edited)

The "experts" don't appear to have been counting on all those butterflies flapping their wings in China.

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Edited by Raptor Witness

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Debby's circulation now covers almost the entire Gulf of Mexico. It will take considerable consolidation of the numerous centers of circulation at the surface to achieve hurricane status. The problem is, several current forecasts say she's got at least four more days to do it. Four days is a lot of time to feed and grow strong, with nothing standing in your way but the U.S. coastline.

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Latest estimates have the storm moving almost due east or west from it's position due to the high entrenched over my neck of the woods on the central gulf coast (Mobile,Al.)

Sure hope they have it right. I hate the damned things and all the mess they cause.

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Debby's place in history - by Dr. Jeff Masters - Weather Underground 6-23-12

Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5.

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Now that history has been officially made on the Atlantic canvas, ask the question ... how many wings does a butterfly have?

"Never before found such a plight ..."

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Posted (edited)

For at least three days the most reliable forecast models used by weather experts have been curiously split in two halves. Last night on the Weather Channel, Brian Norcross, who is their hurricane expert remarked that he cannot remember a time when the models diverged in such opposite directions for so long, on any storm he has witnessed in all the years he's been forecasting.

So in terms of her model representation, it would appear

yet she continues to fly slowly right up the center of the most widely used forecast models.

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Edited by Raptor Witness

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The prediction of the development of storms is all well and good, but I will be more impressed when they can predict how many will hit US shores.

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Oh well, life in paradise. Debby is just a rain maker. Lots of flooding around, but I need to go to the store. Back stroke.....

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Posted (edited)

Debby is pulling a fast one, with her lower level circulation heading southeast, while her top gets ripped off and heads northeast.

On another subject, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an organizing low pressure in the Central Atlantic, which spun off Africa a few days ago. It's a little early for the Cape Verde season, but the way this year is beginning, I wouldn't count anything out.

If the butterflies that are attached to the spreading board in

are like Deborah, the uninsured losses could be in the hundreds of billions this year for U.S. residents. So it might be a good time to study your FEMA flood zone maps, and buy a flood policy if you're in a marginal risk area. I would double the area that these maps show, in terms of risk. So if you're looking at the map, and see you're next to an area at risk, double the distance from the source. So if it's a river, just use a ruler and multiply by two. If you live near the beach, and you see the 500 year flood zone reaching four inches inland on the map, buy flood insurance if you're up to eight inches inland. Don't rely on your mortgage company to see into their crystal ball, because as we saw with hurricane Katrina, the flood zone maps are outdated.

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Edited by Raptor Witness

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A low pressure area that just moved off of Africa is headed west, and appears the most impressive that I've seen so far this season.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.

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Posted (edited)

I'm new to living in a possible hurricane's path and this report came out about a month ago for our new home: Houston/Harris county.

According to the analysis by Civil Tech Engineering, a Category 4 hurricane moving northwest at 10 mph would cause $309 billion in property damage and $65 billion in business interruptions.

The study predicts nearly 800,000 homes in Harris County would be severely damaged or destroyed - 80 percent of the total housing stock - along with 50,000 commercial buildings.

"That's just wind damage," said Melvin Spinks, president of Houston-based Civil Tech. "It doesn't include flooding from rain or surge."

Edited by QuiteContrary

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I'm new to living in a possible hurricane's path and this report came out about a month ago for our new home: Houston/Harris county.

According to the analysis by Civil Tech Engineering, a Category 4 hurricane moving northwest at 10 mph would cause $309 billion in property damage and $65 billion in business interruptions.

The study predicts nearly 800,000 homes in Harris County would be severely damaged or destroyed - 80 percent of the total housing stock - along with 50,000 commercial buildings.

"That's just wind damage," said Melvin Spinks, president of Houston-based Civil Tech. "It doesn't include flooding from rain or surge."

I would love to see some scientific papers on sediment in and around Houston, to get some sense of how frequently they get slammed hard. I would hope that given the population, someone has done or at least attempted to do such a study.

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I would love to see some scientific papers on sediment in and around Houston, to get some sense of how frequently they get slammed hard. I would hope that given the population, someone has done or at least attempted to do such a study.

Yes, this is from the 2012 report on a wind assessment study Houston commissioned them to do. They said we are overdue as the last monster storm was in 1915 when there were only 100,000 people living here. Here is the link. I don't know if it will help you find more info or not.

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/New-study-highlights-region-s-extreme-wind-3605028.php

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We're hearing a lot of record breaking, in terms of the heat in the Midwest this year, and Chicago is a particularly common barometer being used. Suffice to say that it's been hotter in Chicago only once this early, since record keeping began in the late 1800's.

Using this simple measure for a general comparison in the overall pattern, we have to go back to the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1934. That year wasn't particularly busy, in terms of the number of storms, but for those who watch the usual pattern we see out there, there was a prominent shift westward for all Atlantic systems that formed that year.

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It looks like La Nina is returning to the Eastern Pacific. This increases the chances for an active Atlantic hurricane season. Some amateur forecasters are speculating that the unusual number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific this year may be responsible for the sudden cooling trend off the coast of Peru, extending westward.

It's an interesting theory, and one I wouldn't discount, as the purpose in nature of tropical storms and hurricanes, is to transport heat from the equatorial regions to the arctic latitudes. So why should we be so surprised by this recent development? Especially since it appeared, beginning in February of 2012(I've read) that El Nino was returning.

Hmmmm, not so fast says Mother Nature.

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It's time to wake up Mother Nature. It's time

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If this one continues on its forecast path, Ernesto will be passing over a sea of gasoline before entering the Gulf of Mexico. The water is not just hot in the northwestern Caribbean, it's hot all the way down to the sea bed.

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Posted (edited)

I can't do this update any better than this poster ...

The Atlantic has suddenly come alive with activity.

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Etymology of Ernesto - The baby boy name Ernest is pronounced as AHRNahST (English) †. Ernest is an English, French, and Slavic name of Germanic origin. Derived from the element 'eornost' meaning earnest, seriousness, steadfastness, battle to the death.

Now that we know what his name means, it puts things in clearer perspective, perhaps?

Seriously ... given the mouthful ahead, can we count this one out? The hair suddenly standing up on the back of my neck, says no.

Never forget "Ike," and remember who founded NASA. Call it a coincidence, but the fact remains, Mission Control is where

Perhaps in some rare cases, destiny can be by design.

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Forward speed is going to be a big factor with this system. Note how the forecast for the developing trough over the central U.S. has deepened since yesterday.

Hold onto your horses Ernestoy, it looks like cavalry reinforcements are on the way ...

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