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Hominins did not need boats to settle islands

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The early human colonisation of islands might not have been plain sailing. Instead of using boats to deliberately settle on Indonesian islands, hominins may have arrived as castaways, carried on floating debris after floods.

David Wilkinson of Liverpool John Moores University and Graeme Ruxton of the University of St Andrews, both in the UK, used population estimates from the early settlement of Polynesia to model the likely success of island settlement attempts in human prehistory.

They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent.

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You mean thay arrived their on floating rafts maid of reads?

Those crafty hominims ;)

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They sure did island hop and made it all the way to the Americas.:)

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nice.

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Interesting article, but they didnt take their math far enough back

"They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent."

Tell me what the chance of "5 young couples" surviving as castaways is? Land bridge or actual nautical ability seems much more likely. Just my two cents.

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Interesting article, but they didnt take their math far enough back

"They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent."

Tell me what the chance of "5 young couples" surviving as castaways is? Land bridge or actual nautical ability seems much more likely. Just my two cents.

The intrinsic problem you are ignoring is: How many island settling do we know that would have needed a boat or by accident in the stone age? And suddenly we come to a number equal of about 2 every 10,000 years that were successful. And that is way beyond the statistical average possibility.

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Wouldn't be much use if both the castaways were either male or female lol

Still, I suppose when a flood, or tsunami turned up, the idea was to grab the nearest female and drag her onto your floating debris just in case you happened upon a deserted island.

Well, there was no TV in those days was there :)

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