Occum's Razor = some Crop Circles are 'real'

[bison]

At least I can count on you to give a well thought reply bison.

Indeed, I never said any of that was impossible however I still think the likelihood of those things being the case is quite small. As far as being a disruptive or chaotic event when aliens finally do announce their presence, I think that there would indeed be panic and fear but only in a small percentage of the population. There might be a bit of a worldwide disruption though I'm sure things would be back to 'normal' in short order. Once the initial shock wore off people would do what they always do and life would go on. I doubt there would be panic in the streets or rioting or anarchy all over the place, this isn't some 50's sci-fi.

It worries me somewhat that many of the most high placed members of Earth societies are apparently skeptical of the possibility of ET self disclosure, or at least unprepared for it. Their reactions could contribute disproportionately to a sense of instability in society as a whole. Dominant scientific ideas about what life in the universe is actually capable of could take a fatal blow. Our sense of self sufficiency as a species, and belief in the supremacy of our moral, philosophical, and intellectual achievements could probably not be long maintained. In all, this will be a very challenging time for us, even if it is handled very carefully by the others. Edited January 31, 2013 by bison

[laver]

It worries me somewhat that many of the most high placed members of Earth societies are apparently skeptical of the possibility of ET self disclosure, or at least unprepared for it. Their reactions could contribute disproportionately to a sense of instability in society as a whole. Dominant scientific ideas about what life in the universe is actually capable of could take a fatal blow. Our sense of self sufficiency as a species, and belief in the supremacy of our moral, philosophical, and intellectual achievements could probably not be long maintained. In all, this will be a very challenging time for us, even if it is handled very carefully by the others.

Civilisation is a veneer... beneath is pretty primal led by fear of the unknown...it is that fear which needs to be addressed. The 'security' that our governments would like us to believe in is a sham, we live on a planet.. we know not where..... we come, we go.... but what matters is what we do here and now, not what may or may not happen in the 'afterlife' which is just a further unknown...

[Ugly1]

Via Google Search: Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor, Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in logic and problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one that makes the fewest assumptions should be selected.

So the fewest assumptions would be that some undiscovered life force, possibly traveling light years (or using a wormhole), came to earth, looked for a wheat field, made circles in wheat field with trace evidence of microwave radiation. (Probably least amount of assumptions possible with this scenario.)

Other option. Man knocks down crops into pattern.

Unless I am misunderstanding the definition it would seem that Occam's Razor would suggest that they are man made.

[bison]

Via Google Search: Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor, Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in logic and problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one that makes the fewest assumptions should be selected.

So the fewest assumptions would be that some undiscovered life force, possibly traveling light years (or using a wormhole), came to earth, looked for a wheat field, made circles in wheat field with trace evidence of microwave radiation. (Probably least amount of assumptions possible with this scenario.)

Other option. Man knocks down crops into pattern.

Unless I am misunderstanding the definition it would seem that Occam's Razor would suggest that they are man made.

The explanation with the fewest assumptions, yes, but it must also explain *all* the observations. There are still some real doubts rattling around that the man-made explanation does so. This aspect of the problem was discussed earlier in this thread. Chief among its apparent deficiencies are some cases where crop circles were apparently made in seconds or minutes, and the peculiar business of electronic devices which malfunction, or are drained of power, inexplicably, when taken into crop circles.

[laver]

The explanation with the fewest assumptions, yes, but it must also explain *all* the observations. There are still some real doubts rattling around that the man-made explanation does so. This aspect of the problem was discussed earlier in this thread. Chief among its apparent deficiencies are some cases where crop circles were apparently made in seconds or minutes, and the peculiar business of electronic devices which malfunction, or are drained of power, inexplicably, when taken into crop circles.

If you ignore the aspects of some crop circles that indicate that they were not of terrestial formation then of course the principle of Occum's Razor would point to human formation of all crop circles but this would be contrary to Newton's definition, at the start of this thread, that we must only consider factors that are 'true'. By ignoring factors that don't fit the human creation of all crop circles it invalidates the argument and only leaves the conclusion that some crop designs are not man-made.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

"once you eliminate the improabale, whatever remains no mstter how impossibe must be the truth" Dirk Gentle, holistic detective.

[laver]

"once you eliminate the improabale, whatever remains no mstter how impossibe must be the truth" Dirk Gentle, holistic detective.

Rather depends on how rate improbable and impossible it would seem...

[bison]

I'm an admirer of the late Douglas Adams' work, especially the original version ( the BBC radio series) of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. I still prefer Sir Arthur Conan-Doyle's version of the impossible/improbable maxim, though. He seems to have realized that where human affairs are concerned, some very improbable things can and do occur. This in undoubtedly true of intelligent life in general. Adherence to probable courses of action are fine for elementary particles, but no so much for complex beings. Or as Dr. Einstein said it: "Not everything that counts can be counted".

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

Rather depends on how rate improbable and impossible it would seem...

It's improbable that aliens come here to vandalise our cereals. You claim it's impossible that it was only done by men.

Therefore, we've eliminated the improbable, and are left with the impossible as the truth! It was men.

[bison]

If it's merely improbable that extraterrestrials make some crop circles, then it is not *the truth* that humans make all crop circles, but only another probability. Thomas Jefferson once made a statement about some relative probabilities. As you may know, he was a man of learning and science. He opined that it was improbable that rocks fell from the sky, and much more probable that a couple of astronomers had lied about seeing them do so. As it turned out, he got his probabilities rather wrong. Meteorites are now a commonplace of scientific knowledge.

Edited February 2, 2013 by bison

[laver]

If it's merely improbable that extraterrestrials make some crop circles, then it is not *the truth* that humans make all crop circles, but only another probability. Thomas Jefferson once made a statement about some relative probabilities. As you may know, he was a man of learning and science. He opined that it was improbable that rocks fell from the sky, and much more probable that a couple of astronomers had lied about seeing them do so. As it turned out, he got his probabilities rather wrong. Meteorites are now a commonplace of scientific knowledge.

It is a balance of probabilities based on the interpretaion of observations and this must surely be subjective. So if you asked someone who had been watching over a field at night with cameras etc, and seeing no human activity, only to find a crop design at dawn they would probably have a different opinion to someone many miles away being asked to believe that the design was created by non human actions. There are many factors that might make someone conclude that on balance all crop circles are not made by humans; if more evidence comes to light which affects the issue then that might change that opinion or confirm it.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

if tou can find an objective report of just that, then we'd all be convinced.

[laver]

if tou can find an objective report of just that, then we'd all be convinced.

There are stacks of reports and factors about crop designs that make one question the proposal that all crop circles are made by humans, this is available on the internet. The problem seems to be that an incident years ago when two guys claimed to have made them all, with a board and a length of string, stuck in some peoples minds who then believed, and maybe also 'wanted' to believe, that all crop designs had this sort of origin. Evidence and reports to the contrary are then dismissed to keep the hypothesis of 'all man made' going. But when you dismiss factors that do not agree with a hypothesis you invalidate the hypothesis and Occum's Razor then tells us that the cleanest solution is that some crop circles are caused by some non terrestial agent. Some people might find that hard to accept because the implications could be very considerable, and possibly worrying to them, but we will make no progress if we turn a blind eye to what is going on.

[bison]

For some reason, this website no longer accepts links from me. Anyone wanting a compilation of eyewitness accounts of the formation of crop circles in very short periods of time, together with other odd phenomena associated with their appearance can google: 'Crop circles and their message'. This website has a whole section, part 6, of these, titled 'eyewitness reports'

Edited February 2, 2013 by bison

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

It does itself very little credit by using "there are reports" and then not citing them. It does go into length about some reports, but ones thst have had too believable counter-arguments attached.

"we sae lights, then found a crop circle" - there are two answers "they were spaceships" or "they were torches". Occam's Razor on this one uggests "torches" as the makers would need to see, the design in question was all circles, there's a pattern of collapse reminscent of knwn hoaxed circles.

[bison]

There is much more to the group of reports to which I referred than beams of light that might reasonably have been those of persons making crop circles as night. Just to cite a couple of examples: The July 1934 case might appear superficially like a whirlwind, but left the flattened crop hot to the touch. I am not aware of a whirlwind that can do that.

An April, 1991 incident involved the daylight sighting of a craft-like object in the air that projected a conical beam of light down into the crop, which flattened it very quickly. If even a few cases have features that do not support the man-made explanation, it must be granted that many more, where the creation of the circle was unobserved, could have such features, too.

Edited February 2, 2013 by bison

[laver]

There is much more to the group of reports to which I referred than beams of light that might reasonably have been those of persons making crop circles as night. Just to cite a couple of examples: The July 1934 case might appear superficially like a whirlwind, but left the flattened crop hot to the touch. I am not aware of a whirlwind that can do that.

An April, 1991 incident involved the daylight sighting of a craft-like object in the air that projected a conical beam of light down into the crop, which flattened it very quickly. If even a few cases have features that do not support the man-made explanation, it must be granted that many more, where the creation of the circle was unobserved, could have such features, too.

The question of why a non terrestial agent(s) might choose to use some crop designs as a means of sending messages would require a detailed knowledge of the thinking behind those agent(s) which of course we do not have. That does not mean that it is an illogical way to communicate because that would be based on possibly limited human understanding of a much bigger picture but we could surmise that it might be a very intelligent way to guide us to a greater understanding.

[laver]

With the World Economic Forum allocating time to discuss non terrestial life, as noted in the UM article today, it is clearly not an issue to be dismissed out of hand because of the possible impact on some human belief systems and hence our economies. If we are close to establishing that there is other life out there, 10 years they say, then the idea that this external life is much more advanced than us is equally worth considering. The WEF says that governments should prepare people for the possibility to reduce the possible shock reaction and this just might also be the reason for an increasing number of well recorded sightings and messages, like crop circles, which might be to prepare us for the improbable. Will governments address the issue? - not much sign so far it would seem, at least on the surface.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

With the World Economic Forum allocating time to discuss non terrestial life, as noted in the UM article today, it is clearly not an issue to be dismissed out of hand

And the American government (for example) routinely runs projections to see what an invasion from Canada would be like for the mainland United States.

Doesn't mean it's possible, just that it's an idea worthy of consideration.

[laver]

And the American government (for example) routinely runs projections to see what an invasion from Canada would be like for the mainland United States.

Doesn't mean it's possible, just that it's an idea worthy of consideration.

It is obviously generally considered quite possible with the immense scope of the universe that Earth is not the only form of life in it, and yes it is an idea worthy of consideration and how we might become aware of that in some way.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

once again, noone is denying that the universe is probably teeming with life.

what we're debating is "are they coming here to deface our cereal crops".

[psyche101]

It worries me somewhat that many of the most high placed members of Earth societies are apparently skeptical of the possibility of ET self disclosure, or at least unprepared for it. Their reactions could contribute disproportionately to a sense of instability in society as a whole. Dominant scientific ideas about what life in the universe is actually capable of could take a fatal blow. Our sense of self sufficiency as a species, and belief in the supremacy of our moral, philosophical, and intellectual achievements could probably not be long maintained. In all, this will be a very challenging time for us, even if it is handled very carefully by the others.

Not the first person to say this.

Not one has sounded convincing when they have said this to anyone but another CT'er. They seem to be the only one's who get this "fear". We have little sense of self sufficiency today, the masses rely on those who take charge. It's a big production line. If the population were to suddenly find out that we did not know it all, would come as no surprise, particularly those whom you state have this dependancy. The US makes big cars, Japan makes high tech, and China pumps it out on volume, Australia grows heaps of food and mines resources, we are used to other authorities managing some aspects they excel in. That I do believe is the point of a social culture.

There is absolutely no reason to consider such a scenario even might be the case. How do you place such a responsibility on any one Government, or any one people? That seems very one sided indeed! You might have enough people in the US to quake in their boots, I honestly do not know, but you CT'ers make out like every second person over there would just faint at the sight of genuine ET, (not very flattering I must say) we Aussies are made of sterner stuff than that. Maybe ET should make contact with Aussies first? We will make it through the "Shock" quite fine I believe.

Any sudden cultural impact has repercussions. That does not mean we avoid them. One has to meet such a challenge at some point in time. Pretending we are sitting on plans and secrets is just a way of passing the time I feel.

[psyche101]

It is obviously generally considered quite possible with the immense scope of the universe that Earth is not the only form of life in it, and yes it is an idea worthy of consideration and how we might become aware of that in some way.

We are very aware of that, which is why we are looking for life out there. Seems rather a waste of time when all we need do is site next to some grassy fields all night?

Unfortunately, the very idea of using crop circles for communication is pretty lame, in fact, I have to admit to being surprised that someone would consider this idea today. It seems very behind the times, like MIB, and classic "Saucers" What is the reasoning for using such a short lived, oversized silly way to communicate, and how stupid are aliens, do they really think this is the best way to communicate with natural resources such as light, neutrino's or radio al part if their own environment, and after centuries that we still have not figured it out, an intelligent species foes not say "Hey look, those apes have radio nowadays, lets just call them instead of this paining arty farty BS"

I mean seriously, are we not supposed to be speaking about an intelligent species? Do not catch on real quick do they! The only people who consider Crop Circles are having Merit proudly also wear a tin foil hat. I think that is a big red flag in itself. And if that is who Aliens want to contact, I do not think we need them here, do you?

[lightly]

We are very aware of that, which is why we are looking for life out there. Seems rather a waste of time when all we need do is site next to some grassy fields all night?

Unfortunately, the very idea of using crop circles for communication is pretty lame, in fact, I have to admit to being surprised that someone would consider this idea today. It seems very behind the times, like MIB, and classic "Saucers" What is the reasoning for using such a short lived, oversized silly way to communicate, and how stupid are aliens, do they really think this is the best way to communicate with natural resources such as light, neutrino's or radio al part if their own environment, and after centuries that we still have not figured it out, an intelligent species foes not say "Hey look, those apes have radio nowadays, lets just call them instead of this paining arty farty BS"

I mean seriously, are we not supposed to be speaking about an intelligent species? Do not catch on real quick do they! The only people who consider Crop Circles are having Merit proudly also wear a tin foil hat. I think that is a big red flag in itself. And if that is who Aliens want to contact, I do not think we need them here, do you?

Ya, I think we need THEM here . Be pretty boring without them?

[S2F]

Ya, I think we need THEM here . Be pretty boring without them?

I depends on if one is here for entertainment or to probe these mysteries with an eye towards an answer. There are those here that I wonder which camp they belong to.