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Global warming at a standstill

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What is important about the average temperature from 51-80? Why is that the baseline? I'm curious.

It takes 30 years to acquire enough data to know whether you're looking at a change in climate, or just normal variation. These comparisons started in the early 80s, so they used the most-recent 30 year period. It takes a bunch of work to change the basis and then you just have to get used to a new one, so nobody has changed it.

In a word: inertia.

Doug

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Odd, seems like there should be better methods of doing it.

EDIT: Sorry, that was a little too concise. I'll elaborate. Longer timescales? 30 random years from the middle of the 20th century are a really random baseline. You'd think that with the importance of the issue, some better system could be devised.

Edited by socrates.junior

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The basic false premise of the whole scam is that the climate is somehow naturally "stable", and that it only changes because of human interference.

Which is of course patently false. The only thing that has remained constant with the world´s climate over millions of years is that it ALWAYS changes; sometimes drastically.

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Since global warming is fundamentally a taxation and grant scheme, it certainly is not at standstill. If the figures do not match the warmers` fiction, they´ll adjust them.

As only about 20% of the world's weather records have been digitized for computers, you will see small changes in the numbers as data is added. This will rarely be more than one or two hundredths of a degree, however. Also, as stations come online, or go off, the basis of the dataset changes, making small adjustments necessary so that we aren't comparing two different sets of stations. Again, this will rarely cause a change larger than one or two hundredths of a degree.

As for grants: Most researchers are paid a fixed salary and have a small budget for things like computers, office supplies and perhaps some miscellaneous lab equipment. But if they want to do something that requires special equipment, that takes a grant. This is because costs between different disciplines are highly variable. An atomic physicist may require equipment costing millions of dollars, but for me - a good new increment borer costs about $400. I started a new project recently that required a rarely-used computer program; that took a grant for $453. Several years ago I needed a collection of shortleaf pine cores from half-a-state away. I got a grant for $2300 for that - it mostly went to travel.

Another term for "grants" is "contracts." Most research is done under contract for government agencies, big corporations and the like. It's no different from hiring a contractor to fix your roof. The roofer knows how to fix a roof and I know how to analyze data. I used to have a forestry consulting business - everything I did was under a contract - a grant. If the researcher works for government or a university, his paycheck is set, sometimes by law. How much he brings in in grants earns him browny points, but not a raise.

Most people, especially climatologists, don't make all that much money. My daughter graduated with a degree in geology two years ago and is now making twice what I do and I'm nearing retirement - if I can afford to.

Doug

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Longer timescales? 30 random years from the middle of the 20th century are a really random baseline. You'd think that with the importance of the issue, some better system could be devised.

Good weather records only go back to the late 19th century. The Palmer Drought Severity Index starts in 1895 because there isn't enough data from earlier. In Oklahoma, good precip records start in 1892 (20 stations in the whole Indian Territory) and temperature records are often hit-or-miss up into the 1920s. That doesn't leave much choice as to which years you are going to use as a baseline. And any baseline is arbitrary. You need a constant standard to compare changes. Any constant will do.

Doug

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The basic false premise of the whole scam is that the climate is somehow naturally "stable", and that it only changes because of human interference.

I don't know which pseudo-science site you're getting your information from, but any climatologist will tell you that statement is flat-out wrong. Climate varies naturally; we know that and have known it since forever. But, when you subtract the effects of known climate forcings, you're left with about 1.6 degrees C. that you can't explain. Unless you cite the known physics of carbon. The increase in CO2 readily explains that increase in temps. And humans are the major contributors to atmospheric carbon. Especially, wood and charcoal cooking fires, changes in soil microbes brought on by logging and farming and, of course, industrial pollution. Methane from the thawing of permafrost and melting of clathrates is now being added to the mix.

Which is of course patently false. The only thing that has remained constant with the world´s climate over millions of years is that it ALWAYS changes; sometimes drastically.

Glad we agree.

Doug

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I don't know which pseudo-science site you're getting your information from, but any climatologist will tell you that statement is flat-out wrong. Climate varies naturally; we know that and have known it since forever. But, when you subtract the effects of known climate forcings, you're left with about 1.6 degrees C. that you can't explain. Unless you cite the known physics of carbon. The increase in CO2 readily explains that increase in temps.

I don´t know what sources you are getting your information from, but the claim that "any climatologist" has bought into the "global warming" scam is flat-out wrong. There are plenty who do not agree with the simplistic models presented by the global warming activists. And the idea that you can "subtract the effects of known climate forcings" is ludicrious. (What is a "climate forcing" anyway?) The climate is influenced by a huge number of factors; to single out CO2 as the only one and to pretend that you can reduce everything to one single chemical is not science, it is political convenience. Fyi, for a while the UN itself tried to reduce climate change on Methane (i.e. cow farts). Google it. That was just as silly.

By the way, the CO2 content of the earth`s atmosphere does not explain the simultaneous global warming that happened simultaneously on Mars. Or do you now suggest the Mars is occupied by SUV driving humans.

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The basic false premise of the whole scam is that the climate is somehow naturally "stable", and that it only changes because of human interference.

Which is of course patently false. The only thing that has remained constant with the world´s climate over millions of years is that it ALWAYS changes; sometimes drastically.

Wrong. Climate science is all about understanding all variables. natural and anthropogenic.

Br Cornelius

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I don´t know what sources you are getting your information from, but the claim that "any climatologist" has bought into the "global warming" scam is flat-out wrong. There are plenty who do not agree with the simplistic models presented by the global warming activists. And the idea that you can "subtract the effects of known climate forcings" is ludicrious. (What is a "climate forcing" anyway?) The climate is influenced by a huge number of factors; to single out CO2 as the only one and to pretend that you can reduce everything to one single chemical is not science, it is political convenience. Fyi, for a while the UN itself tried to reduce climate change on Methane (i.e. cow farts). Google it. That was just as silly.

By the way, the CO2 content of the earth`s atmosphere does not explain the simultaneous global warming that happened simultaneously on Mars. Or do you now suggest the Mars is occupied by SUV driving humans.

Seasons explains the warming on mars, for which there is very scant evidence for long term trends - certainly minimal compared to the earth for which you are not confident in mans data. Ironic what you choose to believe.

Br Cornelius

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Seasons explains the warming on mars

"In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row."

http://news.national...rs-warming.html

Edited by Little Fish

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I don´t know what sources you are getting your information from, but the claim that "any climatologist" has bought into the "global warming" scam is flat-out wrong.

The following is a list of journals that carry articles by climatologists. And this is just journals publishing under the Springer umbrella group. There are others like El Sevier and numerous independent professional journals like Dendrochronologia, the Tree Ring Bulletin and Tree Ring Research, to name three in my own field.

Journals that carry climatology-related articles published under the Springer group:

Journal of Climate

Acta Meteorologica Sinica

Acta Oceanologica Sinica

Advanes in Atmospheris Science

AMBIO

Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Boundary-Layer Meteorology

Climate Dynamics

Climate Change

Environmental Fluid Dynamics

GPS Solutions

International Journal of Biometeorology

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management

Irrigation and Drainage Systems

Irrigation Science

Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry

Journal of Paleoclimatology

Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Ocean Dynamics

Physical Oceanography

Precision Agriculture

Regional Environmental Change

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Solar Physics

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica

Sustainability Science

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Vegetation History and Archaeobotany

Water Resources Management

Water Air and Soil Pollution

Each of these carries professional articles by climatologists. Most deal with nuances of warming or how some aspect of the climate system works. None attempt to refute warming or its mostly-human causes. El Sevier has a similar list and there are several others. You can also find articles by climate scientists in other journals, like the Journal of Forestry and the Southern Journal of Applied Forestry and others that on the surface do not seem to be related to climatology. I suggest you do some reading.

For a list of professional articles on what climatologists think, see http://connection.eb...-climate-change

There are plenty who do not agree with the simplistic models presented by the global warming activists.

You are making the beginner mistake of assuming that computer simulation models are the only tool used in climate science. I use tree rings and weather records. Other people use ice cores, sediment cores, telescopes, satellites, chemicals, test tubes.... It's a long list. I am in the final stages of a study of winter storms in the central US using tree ring records (I can name the dates of ice storms and major snow storms +/- two months going back to 1650 when this area was Indian country. To be able to do this, I have done a lot of reading on ice storms, statistical analysis, regression modelling and a long list of "ologies." Climate science impacts my work and vice versa. So, I am one of those "climate scientists" who has "bought into" global warming.

And the idea that you can "subtract the effects of known climate forcings" is ludicrious.

Not a statistician, are you? I have the equivalent of a masters in statistics (The term on the degree says "Forest Biometry."). I frequently subtract the effects of a variable so I can study another one. SAS has all the programming you need for this. So does S-PLUS and NCSS. The process is not only possible, it is completely routine.

(What is a "climate forcing" anyway?)

A climate forcing is simply a physical driver of climate. These include the Milankovic Cycles, solar cycles, albedo, El Nino Southern Oscillation, etc. Physical forces that affect climate.

For study purposes these are quantified. An example would be the precise positions of the north pole when studying the effects of the Chandler Wobble on weather patterns (The effects of this "insignificant" wobble show up in tree ring records from Missouri and Oklahoma.). One might also use the North Atlantic Oscillation index (There are several NAO indices.). Or the Palmer Drought Severity Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, etc.

The climate is influenced by a huge number of factors; to single out CO2 as the only one and to pretend that you can reduce everything to one single chemical is not science, it is political convenience.

Like you say, CO2 is just one component of the equation, but it is an important one. The "carbon fingerprint" causes greater warming in dry areas than in wet ones. That is predicted from the the emission/absorption specturm of CO2. When we look to see where warming is greatest, we find those areas to be the interior of continents in winter (when water is frozen) and the edges of dry deserts, exactly as predicted by carbon chemistry. That's the basic test for carbon-caused warming, BTW.

Fyi, for a while the UN itself tried to reduce climate change on Methane (i.e. cow farts). Google it. That was just as silly.

Perhaps you don't remember how that story got started. It was back in the 80s when the US Environmental Protection Agency (not the UN) put out an article that flippantly suggested that methane from cows could be a driving factor for warming. It was meant as a joke, BUT: one of those "environmental" political groups (Sierra Club, I think) picked it up and decided to use it to harass the EPA. They filed suit claiming that the EPA was required to investigate ALL possible causes of warming. To settle the suit, the EPA agreed to determine how much methane was being emitted by cattle and that led to some unfortunate cows wearing cumbersome devices designed to measure their "emissions." The study concluded that cattle "emissions" were insignificant, but that didn't pacify the "environmental" nut brigade. So EPA had to do another study: that one concluded that there WAS a significant effect, and that in turn required a third study to break the deadlock. Now, several studies later, the consensus is that cattle account for about 28% of human-related methane production. This is one of those issues that everybody wishes would die, but it just won't.

By the way, the CO2 content of the earth`s atmosphere does not explain the simultaneous global warming that happened simultaneously on Mars. Or do you now suggest the Mars is occupied by SUV driving humans.

That may make sense to you, but I see no connections between earth and Mars. Remember those Milankovic Cycles? Mars goes through something similar. Add in seasons and there's your explanation.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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"In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row."

http://news.national...rs-warming.html

Mars has a highly variable orbital path which is the most likely explanation for long term cyclic trends in its climate beyond its 589 day year. However it is absolutely impossible to say since there is no long term data on the trends in the climate of mars on which to base any useful statement. 3 years of change could very easily be attributable to a single dust storm and its effect on planetary albedo.

Br Cornelius

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If the ice caps keep on melting at the same rate they are now it is not good

If the ice caps are supposed to be melting, nobody's told Antarctica that.

Ice is NOT melting at the South Pole. In fact, there is more and more ice there all the time.

What has not been reported much in the media is that in September 2012 - just four months ago - there was more ice in Antarctica than ever recorded in that month.

However, in August 2012, America's National Public Radio (NPR) published an article on its website, “Ten years ago, a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island disintegrated and melted in the waters off Antarctica. Two other massive ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula had suffered similar fates a few years before. The events became poster children for the effects of global warming. … There’s no question that unusually warm air triggered the final demise of these huge chunks of ice.”

NPR, for reasons known only to themselves, failed to mention anywhere in the article that Antarctic sea ice has been growing since satellites first began measuring the ice 33 years ago and the sea ice had been above the 33-year average throughout 2012.

As meteorologist Anthony Watts explains here, http://wattsupwithth...-exceed-losses/ new data show ice mass is accumulating on the Antarctic continent as well as in the ocean surrounding Antarctica (see the image below). The new data contradict an assertion by global warming alarmists that the expanding Antarctic sea ice is coming at the expense of a decline in Antarctic continental ice.

So convinced were the global warming scaremongerers that ice is melting at the poles that many of them even predicted there would be no ice left at all in the Antarctic by the end of summer 2012. Again, they've been shown to be well and truly wrong.

antarctic_icesat_tracks.jpg

Edited by TheLastLazyGun

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this article says a computer model predicts a 0.03C rise in the next few years, which essentially means there will have been no global warming for 20 years, and you all claim this means thermageddon.

"by 2017 temperatures will have remained about the same for two decades."

get some perspective people.

co2 will have increased about 10-15% over this 20 year period which means that co2 is not the deadly gas you all think it is, or to say the same thing differently, something else controls the temperature.

There are some scientists who believe that CO2 - an entirely natural gas - is not the cause of any "global warming" which may have occurred (probably quite naturally) at some point in the past. They believe that the reason why atmospheric warming equates with a rise in CO2 is because a rise in atmospheric warming actually causes a rise in CO2, rather than a rise in CO2 causing atmospheric warming.

It could well be that the global warming alarmists have been reading that data the wrong way round.

Edited by TheLastLazyGun

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Opinion aint worth a fig unless backed up with facts and references.

Br Cornelius

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Opinion aint worth a fig unless backed up with facts and references.

Br Cornelius

The FACTS are that there is no Global Warming, as even the Global Warming-obsessed Met Office recently admitted (but they were so embarrassed to do so they released the news on Christmas Eve when they knew there would be no newspapers to report it the next day).

See the opening post if you don't believe me.

Edited by TheLastLazyGun

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The FACTS are that there is no Global Warming, as even the Global Warming-obsessed Met Office recently admitted (but they were so embarrassed to do so they released the news on Christmas Eve when they knew there would be no newspapers to report it the next day).

See the opening post if you don't believe me.

Global warming is still occuring and the met office did not say anything other than it was. There is still a clear upward trend in mean surface temperature and there is still a steady accumulation of energy in the planetary system with a net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere.

Simply shouting a wrong opinion doesn't magically make it right.

The opening post is a piece of reportage which misrepresents what the MET office actually said.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius

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And it had been confidently predicting temperature rises of at least 0.2 degrees per decade, with a succession of years exceeding even the record-breaking high of 1998...... until it admitted on Christmas Eve that it got those predictions disastrously wrong and that there is, in fact, no global warming. But by releasing the info on Christmas Eve, it was obviously too embarassed to admit it.

1998 was the FOURTH hottest year on record. 2005, 2007 and 2010 were hotter. Between 1976 and 1998, globally averaged mean temperatures rose 0.73 degrees C, or 0.332 degrees per decade. Since 1998, the rate of rise has been 0.042 degrees per decade. Slower, but still increasing. (Data source: NCDC).

‘Somewhere in the world, a weather record is being broken almost every day. This is normal. What’s not normal is when people try to impose on it some kind of invented trend.’

Try this: for the next year, record day-by-day which days set new heat records and which ones set new cold records. A year from now, report back here and tell us whether heating or cooling set the larger number of records.

Doug

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If the ice caps are supposed to be melting, nobody's told Antarctica that.

Ice is NOT melting at the South Pole. In fact, there is more and more ice there all the time.

A friend of mine in the geology department was close enough to see the Larson B ice shelf collapse. In fact, he was too close. The ship's captain was censured for putting his vessel in danger.

What has not been reported much in the media is that in September 2012 - just four months ago - there was more ice in Antarctica than ever recorded in that month.

I just did a brief literature search for articles pertaining to total ice volumes in the Antarctic. I found lots of paleo studies, but only two (both published in 2005) pertaining to current ice volumes. They are: Cook, A. J., A. J. Fox, D. G. Vaughn and J. G. Ferrigno. 2005. "Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century." Science 22 April 2005. Vol. 308. No. 5721. pp. 541-544; and Alley, R. B., P. U. Clark, P. Huybrechts and I. Joughin. "Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes." Science 21 October 2005. Vol. 310. No. 5747, pp. 456-460.

With all due respect, I doubt there has been time since September for a study of the 2012 ice volumes to have been completed. I therefore, question the validity of your claims. Please present some evidence that you know what you are talking about.

As meteorologist Anthony Watts explains here, http://wattsupwithth...-exceed-losses/ new data show ice mass is accumulating on the Antarctic continent as well as in the ocean surrounding Antarctica (see the image below).

The new data contradict an assertion by global warming alarmists that the expanding Antarctic sea ice is coming at the expense of a decline in Antarctic continental ice.

Please cite the original research articles for your statements. Anthony Watts is not a climatologist and only lists one now-discontinued weather-forecasting award, among his professional accomplishments. His attempt at scientific publishing ended with his article failing peer review. Mr. Watts' reputation includes his penchant for misquoting and distorting the work of others.

I checked your link. Mr. Watts' article is about floating sea ice. Sea ice cover is an ephemeral condition that can completely reverse itself in as little as a year's time. The important metric here is GLACIAL ICE VOLUME. Again, I doubt that any studies of glacial ice volume have been completed that would show the situation as of last September. Mr. Watts is misleading his gullible followers.

Citing a fiction writer as your source will not help substantiate your claims.

no ice left at all in the Antarctic by the end of summer 2012. Again, they've been shown to be well and truly wrong.

What is the original source of this claim, or did you just make it up?

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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The FACTS are that there is no Global Warming, as even the Global Warming-obsessed Met Office recently admitted (but they were so embarrassed to do so they released the news on Christmas Eve when they knew there would be no newspapers to report it the next day).

See the opening post if you don't believe me.

There are about a half-dozen lists of globally averaged temperature anomalies. I have two of them (The Goddard Institutes' (NCDC) list and the HadCrut3) on my desk as I write this. All show roughly the same thing: between 1976 and 1998, global temperatures rose about 0.7 degrees C. and have risen another 0.05 degrees since then. If you are going to make wild claims about there being no such thing as global warming, you need to present a dataset to back up your claim. To the best of my knowledge, no such dataset exists. It's time to put up or shut up.

Doug

PDSI address is:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/drd964x.pdsi.txt

Global Temperature Anomalies address is:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Hadley-Crutcher 3 address is:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/tempersture/hadcrut3ggl.txt

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Antarctic Ice volume is on the increase because there has been an increase in precipitation/snowfall due to a change in the prevailing weather patterns around the continent. This change is because more moist WARM air is been carried into the Antarctic interior where due to the high mountain ranges it is forced out of the clouds due to the lapse rate.

The growth of Antarctic land ice is directly caused by Global warming. Many areas of Antarctic sea ice are in fact on the retreat due to rising antarctic sea surface temperatures.

Global warming = Climate change. Not all climate change is in a predictable direction ie warmer.

Br Cornelius

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Little Fish, Doug and BR

Have any of you heard of any hypothesis for why this "standstill" is occurring?

In Denmark we are puzzled, the best hypothesis we have heard of is the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate. But even this hypothesis leaves many of our questions unanswered.

Any of you heard of a better hypothesis?

P.S sorry if you already have posted one - to lazy to read all of the posts.

Edited by BFB

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Have any of you heard of any hypothesis for why this "standstill" is occurring?

Heard of one (actually a combination of three), but don't know if it's any better:

1. High sulfur emissions from Chinese power plants.

2. Decreasing solar activity.

3. Energy being dissipated by increased storm activity.

Sorry I don't have the reference.

Doug

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Little Fish, Doug and BR

Have any of you heard of any hypothesis for why this "standstill" is occurring?

In Denmark we are puzzled, the best hypothesis we have heard of is the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate. But even this hypothesis leaves many of our questions unanswered.

Any of you heard of a better hypothesis?

P.S sorry if you already have posted one - to lazy to read all of the posts.

I think the essential driver of climate change is completely unchanged as attested by the continued energy imbalance and the steady accumulation of heat in the deep oceans. I think its simply a bifibralation of that famous internal climate variability. In effect we are seeing an unpredicatable chaotic state change to a different climate regime.

Br Cornelius

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