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docyabut2

Report shows UN admitting solar activity may

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The Earth has been getting warmer -- but how much of that heat is due to greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural causes

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/01/report-show-un-admitting-solar-activity-may-play-significant-role-in-global/#ixzz2JhmEOWJc

I guess we always knew this when solar flares are more active,it causes the cord of the earth to heat up. The heating is with in the earth, more volcano eruptions, ect.

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there is a relationship between cultivation of crops and genaral heating of the earth .

crops take carbon dioxide out of the air very effectivly and some bactria at ground level produces ozone which kills other bactria .

the over all take away is... if you stand in a feild , its quite hot ... if your in a glider ... you look for parking lots and crops to get thermals to ride...

with the amount of crop production in current cultivation , i would suspect heating of the earth .

to lower the tempature , we need to burn forests and fire up gasoline engines ...

the largest producer of oxygen on earth is the top 15 feet of the oceans , one oil spill can lower the oxygen levels , and cause a raise in carbon dioxide world wide... but that will not change tempature in the slightest .

most weather is caused by sun light heating ocean plankton that is found in between 44degrees above and below the equator . and that is not effected in the slightest by volcano's ... the sun light is so nearly a perfect constant as to be a fixed amount , leaving only magnetic feild changes to cause random changes in jet stream that may effect short term weather ... long term weather is effected more by salt and soil suspended in the top 15 feet of ocean water than any other effect ...

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this may not be a politicaly correct view... but any part can be independantly shown to be true , and the whole can be shown to be true historicaly for those who have an open mind .

it is not politicaly correct to question the views of people who give grant money to show that theirs is the true and correct view of how things are. so i will keep my ideas to myself .

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Surprise! There’s an active volcano under Antarctic ice

It seems that we still don’t know everything there is to know about our earth-climate system. Take this for example. Scientists have just now discovered an active volcano under the Antarctic ice that “creates melt-water that lubricates the base of the ice sheet and increases the flow towards the sea”.

Yet many claim the CO2 is the driver for any melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. I wonder how this will figure into that argument?

Surprise! There’s an active volcano under Antarctic ice | Watts Up With That?

I realize these reports are of years ago, but maybe that why the ices are melting.

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I would have been more surprised if there wasnt an active volcano under the antarctic. But cool nonetheless.

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The Earth has been getting warmer -- but how much of that heat is due to greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural causes

The answer to that question can be determined by a simple regression process. Just compile a list of global temperature anomalies (That's the "Y" value, or dependent variable, and match it up with measurements of CO2 levels and measures of the natural causes, like sunspot counts, or measures of solar X-rays, etc. Those are the "X" values, or indepedent variables. Then use regression statistics to create a mathematical model that predicts temperature using the X-variables as inputs.

In fact, this has been done - many times. That's how we know that CO2 is the culprit.

Doug

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I'm glad to hear that Mr. Watts has finally heard of Mounts Erebus and Terror. They were discovered on January 27, 1841 by Sir James Clark Ross who named them after his ships. Some people are a little slow getting the word.

Volcanic activity affects weather and even has an affect on climate. That's not exactly new, either. The storms that devastated the American livestock industry in 1886/1887 were due to cooling induced by sulfur aerosols released by Krakatoa in 1883. The Fimbul Winter of 535-537 AD was the result of a massive volcanic eruption in South America. The eruption of Toba about 73,000 YBP triggered a six-year volcanic winter, a thousand-year cold snap and the Tahoe stage of the Wisconsinan Ice Age. And 1815, the "Year Without a Summer" was triggered by the eruption of Tamboura. A succession of volcanic eruptions ended the Medieval Warm Period, pushing the planet into the Little Ice Age, an event that was enhanced by the Maunder Minimum, a low in solar activity.

1815, 1886 and 1980 (Saint Helens) all show up in the rings of Arkansas shortleaf pines. I have developed an "ice storm signature," a pattern in tree rings that identifies ice storms. It might also be possible to develop a "volcano signature." Then their effects could be precisely calculated and compensated when studying the ups and downs of past climates.

These things are known and accounted for in climate science. And after that accounting? The world is still getting warmer.

Doug

P.S.: the Fimbul Winter also shows up in tree ring records, as does a mysterious six-year disturbance that occurred in 2807-2801 BC and roughly corresponds with "Noah's Flood."

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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Indeed it is. The colder conditions south of 75 degrees south are the result, in part, of CFC pollution of the atmosphere. CFCs destroy ozone which along with CO2 and other greenhouse gases, helps keep the earth's heat from leaking into space. The ozone hole over the southern hemisphere is cooler as a result, so Antarctica south of about 75 degrees south is also colder.

Without understanding what it was doing, Fox made the case for greater regulation and pollution control.

Doug

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I guess it proves global warming is from natural causes, a natural cycle, not just from man`s pollution.

Edited by docyabut2

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The Earth has been getting warmer -- but how much of that heat is due to greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural causes

Read more: http://www.foxnews.c.../#ixzz2JhmEOWJc

I guess we always knew this when solar flares are more active,it causes the cord of the earth to heat up. The heating is with in the earth, more volcano eruptions, ect.

Good question you pose. Does anybody really know? I do not, at any rate. :cry:

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I guess it proves global warming is from natural causes, a natural cycle, not just from man`s pollution.

Climate is affected by both human and natural causes. The natural ones, we can't do much about (Ever try to stop a volcano?). But the man-caused ones, we can. Those are the ones we need to work on.

Good question you pose. Does anybody really know? I do not, at any rate. :cry:

There are several people who post regularly on this forum who do know because they have spent a good part of their careers studying climate. There are also a number of people who post regularly on this forum who can't tell a good source from a BS source and do not engage their brains enough to tell the difference. This is not a good place to learn about climate, because anybody can post here. If you are ever going to separate the wheat from the chaff, you will have to study climate science for real from people whose expertise you can confirm. It's really not that hard to do, but it does take a serious commitment to dig out the truth. And you will never know unless you do.

Doug

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Climate is affected by both human and natural causes. The natural ones, we can't do much about (Ever try to stop a volcano?). But the man-caused ones, we can. Those are the ones we need to work on.

There are several people who post regularly on this forum who do know because they have spent a good part of their careers studying climate. There are also a number of people who post regularly on this forum who can't tell a good source from a BS source and do not engage their brains enough to tell the difference. This is not a good place to learn about climate, because anybody can post here. If you are ever going to separate the wheat from the chaff, you will have to study climate science for real from people whose expertise you can confirm. It's really not that hard to do, but it does take a serious commitment to dig out the truth. And you will never know unless you do.

Doug

Doug most of these experts on global warming have been proven wrong:), sometimes it takes simple questions to figure it out. The CO2 levels were higher in the dino ages when man was even around, so how can one say its only man that causing global warming, allthough I agree man does add to the pollution You know the experts stopped calling it Global Warming and now are calling it Climate Changes.

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Doug most of these experts on global warming have been proven wrong:), sometimes it takes simple questions to figure it out. The CO2 levels were higher in the dino ages when man was even around, so how can one say its only man that causing global warming, allthough I agree man does add to the pollution You know the experts stopped calling it Global Warming and now are calling it Climate Changes.

Temperatures in the Dino age were also much higher which would tend to support CO2 as a causative agent. Unfortunately it is nowhere near that simple since the continents were organised differently which had a massive effect on the planetary climate system.

The anthropocentric causes of climate change have been verified by multiple interlocking strands of evidence so it matters little if the actual details change as a consequence of continued research.

There will be a lot of wildly speculative mechanisms proposed which attempt to tie solar activity to current climate change, because that is all the skeptics have left at this stage.

Br Cornelius

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Doug most of these experts on global warming have been proven wrong:),

A bald-faced statement like that begs for some evidence to back it up. Please post some references.

The CO2 levels were higher in the dino ages when man was even around, so how can one say its only man that causing global warming, allthough I agree man does add to the pollution

Both O2 and CO2 levels were a lot higher. Higher CO2 levels supports the concept that CO2 affects temperature.

There are a lot of variables that statement completely ignors.

You know the experts stopped calling it Global Warming and now are calling it Climate Changes.

The ones I know use the terms pretty much interchangably when they're not trying to be real precise. "Global warming" now pretty much refers to human-caused warming, while "climate change" is a more generic term, refering to any type of change. Besides, it doesn't make much sense to say "global warming" when you're talking about changes in precip or numbers of storms, or floods, or any of scores of climate measurements that do not involve measuring temperature.

The anthropocentric causes of climate change have been verified by multiple interlocking strands of evidence so it matters little if the actual details change as a consequence of continued research.

Br Cornelius

Couldn't have said it better.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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Thanks Doug.

I'm not that interested, mostly because there is nothing I can do about it, and I have plenty of other things to learn about. :yes:

I am totally at the mercy of the elements and the climate. Try to avoid bad areas and situations, but there is not much one can do about the weather.

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Thanks Doug.

I'm not that interested, mostly because there is nothing I can do about it, and I have plenty of other things to learn about. :yes:

I am totally at the mercy of the elements and the climate. Try to avoid bad areas and situations, but there is not much one can do about the weather.

That kind of thinking has to change. My local city council refuses to address the city's water issues because they don't think they can do anything about the weather. They could:

1. Repair our obsolete and degraded water mains (We lose about 30% of our water to leaky pipes.).

2. Pipe water in from a large reservoir 40 miles north of us.

3. Allow the use of rain barrels (They're illegal because some folks don't like the way they look.).

4. Allow the use of cisterns, guttering and rain pipes so natural rainfall can be harnessed, stretching water supplies.

5. Promote xeriscape (That's illegal; same reason as #3..).

6. Put in shallow wells to supplement reservoir water.

7. Examine desalinization and the use of deep water as a long-term solution.

These don't sound like global warming issues, but they mitigate the results of warming-induced precip changes.

New York and New Orleans were not ready for the storms that hit them (The Weather Channel had been broadcasting a disaster scenario about a major huricane hitting New York for two years before Sandy.). Neither Katrina, nor Sandy, were that much stronger than storms of the past 30 years. But just getting ready for "normal" disasters would go a long way toward mitigating climate damage.

Just cleaning up pollution doesn't sound like a climate issue, but soot is a siginifcant driver of warming. Tighter emission standards for diesel engines would mitigate that.

The US has an aging electrical grid that is badly in need of modernization and repair. Federal low-interest loans to power companies would make the system more efficient (cutting down on carbon emissions) and make it less-susceptible to an electro-magnetic pulse (From a solar flare or an atomic bomb.). Just writing letters to Congressmen (those that can read) could help.

The bottom line: nearly every natural resource issue is also a global warming issue. Get involved.

Doug

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The Earth has been getting warmer -- but how much of that heat is due to greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural causes

Read more: http://www.foxnews.c.../#ixzz2JhmEOWJc

It is pretty obvious that solar activity has a lot to do with climate, but the the business of taxing and allocating ressources in the name of the pseudo-scientific CO2 theory is too tempting for governments to give up, so don´t expect it it stop anytime soon.

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It is pretty obvious that solar activity has a lot to do with climate, but the the business of taxing and allocating ressources in the name of the pseudo-scientific CO2 theory is too tempting for governments to give up, so don´t expect it it stop anytime soon.

The policy response is not the science - people find it impossible to understand the difference between evidence and what people do with that evidence.

Br Cornelius

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talking of evidence, what does this tell you?

if it was a done deal why would they need to manipulate the data?

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talking of evidence, what does this tell you?

if it was a done deal why would they need to manipulate the data?

The guy who "discovered" the "manipulation" was our good friend Anthony Watts.

Back in 1969 I attended Kent State. I saw a "news" crew from WEWS Channel 5 (Cleveland) stage a "riot" for the cameras. It was blatantly unethical and a deliberate distortion of events. I have been at several events that were deemed "newsworthy" and had trouble recognizing the report as covering the same event. This article does nothing to enhance my opinion of TV "news" shows.

If there is some kind of conspiracy, why didn't they get East Anglia in on it? You don't need NCDC data to demonstarte that the world is getting warmer.

Doug

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I just got curious, so I decided to test whether the NCDC dataset was real or not. I took the NCDC list of global temperature anomalies and used them to predict the mean annual temperature for Mena, Arkansas. I chose Mena because I already have the data for that city. As far as I know, I am the only person who has ever combed through the records and compiled a comprehensive set of mean annual temperatures for Mena. The records run from January 1906 when the station opened to 2012. There were two gaps of two years. One was 1910-1911 and the other was 1979-1980. Both times the volunteers who ran the station died and it was quite awhile before the Weather Bureau could replace them. At any rate, the model is:

Mean Annual Temperature (Mena, Arkansas) in degrees F. = -0.0166 (NCDC Global Temperature Anomaly in hundredths of a degree Celsius) +60.7309

The model accounts for 22.6% of temperature variation.

About two times out of three, the error of the prediction is less than 1.35 degrees Farenheit.

For you statisticians: F(1,98) = 28.68. The probability of accepting a false conclusion is less than one in ten thousand.

Try this for any city you like. It won't work on all of them, but it should work on those that are on the edge of a dry desert, like Mena, Arkansas. I also tryed it with Fort Smith and Subiaco, AR. Works for them, too.

If the NCDC list is false, this correlation shouldn't exist. But it does.

Time to engage your brains, people.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29
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