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ohio traveler

The Stock Market

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With the stock market back up to a surprisingly and actually unexplainable high level, and a possible HUGE correction downward looming, I wonder if now would be a good time to take what I've got and finally get out ? I know that UM is probably not the best place to get investment advice. But I do like hearing opinions from everyone I know and if they've got the same feeling.

I just got this eerie feeling that the bottom is about to drop out.

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Look at the great depression Clyde. The very rich got very richer the somewhat rich and everyone else got screwed. History repeats. Get out. You may be better off cashing in 401k in for lottery tickets than losing it all in the market in the next 10 years.

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The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.

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Posted (edited)

With the stock market back up to a surprisingly and actually unexplainable high level, and a possible HUGE correction downward looming, I wonder if now would be a good time to take what I've got and finally get out ? I know that UM is probably not the best place to get investment advice. But I do like hearing opinions from everyone I know and if they've got the same feeling.

I just got this eerie feeling that the bottom is about to drop out.

The various "civilization will end in months" threads over the years would agree with that statement. :P I swear some people seem to be looking forward to an economic collapse...

Anyway I'd sell some stuff right now for the simple reason that stocks are worth a far bit at the moment. Gives you a good profit, though I'm not sure if you need to sell everything. Given how high stocks are right now it's completely reasonable for things to drop as people sell off their stocks. That's just how the stock market works but I doubt we'll be entering hobo territory. Plus some stocks tend to be more stable than others from my understanding.

Edited by Corp

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Posted (edited)

I am not an investor so I am no one to give advice. I have only recently been watching the DJIA with regularity because in the past, I could use it as a somewhat indicator for the construction markets. When corporate profits are up, the corporations tend to build new offices, manufacturing and research facilities. In the years I have observed the DJIA, when it was good, "they" were spending the money. Things were getting built, folks had jobs and that all trickled into a fairly stable general economy...this time has been oddly different. I can only guess as to why that is.

The DJIA is at an all time high and the economy is still stagnant. Construction is still down and unemployment still sits officially at 7.9% (though most of us know that number is bullsh!t).

There is lots of talk about a correction coming if not a full on collapse from all the electronic dollars propping it up. The big boys are dropping millions of stocks...my guess is to get stable assetts...wait for the correction...and when all the average and amateur "retirement" investors get screwed again (and lose what little they had left from the last time)...the big boys will swoop in and buy up the remnants and ruins for pennies on the dollar and be one step closer to owning it all.

Just my very uneducated opinion though.

Edited by Jeremiah65
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Posted (edited)

many years ago I HAD a retirement account. and when i started it i told the people who helped me start it NO stocks! what goes up will come down. But they kept trying to get me to take stocks i said NO repeatedly so eventually they lied to me and said well this isn't stocks... blah blah blah ) so i said ok. (turned out the the company was selling me their own stocks and the interest was in their own stocks as well) i lost 77% of what i had in 6 to 8 weeks. granted i was not and am not rich but 15 years of savings were gone in just weeks. I was lucky in that when i was real young( 35+ years ago) i bought a bunch of silver ingots at the local coin store and was able to sell them and pay off my debts. I personally will not ever knowingly get into the stock market. and my UNexpert advice is Unless you have the means to be ableand willing to loose everything you have in stocks Don't Buy Stocks. what goes up must eventually come down and the higher it goes the harder it will hit when it falls.

and before you think i am suggesting gold or silver they are both still to high to make a profit on they too will fall again soon.

Edited by mysticwerewolf
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Posted (edited)

Well...when US corporate executives are quietly selling more of their own company shares than they are buying (at a 50 to 1 ratio), one has to wonder what their OWN assessment of the future of the stock market really is:

http://www.zerohedge...s-new-recession

The market rally is a fragile bubble being blown by Ben Bernanke and the Fed. Plan accordingly.

Edited by hacktorp

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Just aim for short term investments. Or even if you are afraid, make investments that will probably survive the next crash and when the market recovers the share prices will balance out again.

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The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.

That is exactly what I fear. I don't have much in there to begin with, but I sure don't want it to drop to pennies. I'm starting to move my earnings out of stocks and into more of a stable value option. Sure it will earn less, but I'll be able to sleep better.

And 3d printer technology ?? Wow ! Amazing stuff for sure.

* Thanks for everyone's opinions, advice, and personal stories.

Sorry to hear about your loss's MysticWerewolf.

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The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.

I'm watching DDD, SYSS and XONE myself. First I checked China to see if there was any way to invest in the technology over there, but they're still studying it in their universities. The US has the jump on it, although like everything else manufacturing, we eventually lose our lunch to Asia.

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That is exactly what I fear. I don't have much in there to begin with, but I sure don't want it to drop to pennies. I'm starting to move my earnings out of stocks and into more of a stable value option. Sure it will earn less, but I'll be able to sleep better.

And 3d printer technology ?? Wow ! Amazing stuff for sure.

* Thanks for everyone's opinions, advice, and personal stories.

Sorry to hear about your loss's MysticWerewolf.

If you're scared of the stock market, in a word, diversify. Put a bit into currencies, put a bit into commodities, put a bit into cash, put a bit into bonds.

The best non-equity idea which is as bulletproof as anything else I've found are ultra-short-term bond funds:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11636263/1/race-to-safety-best-high-yielders.html

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110706/FREE/110709955

So basically this is an investment for chickens, an enhanced cash strategy when just plain cash is a money losing proposition, thanks to money markets 0% interest and inflation of 2% according to the CPI. David Sherman looks for debtors with the cash on hand to pay their debt, and with the shortest maturity periods in the industry, (debt is coming due in a month and you've got the cash to pay it) and with less than perfect credit to pump up the yield. The average bond fund probably carries debt 5-8 years to maturity, a huge risk if you think the markets are going to tank eventually. Some are 10 and 20 years, a huge gamble even among the best balance sheets and AAA ratings. This is a fund that will sit in cash if there isn't anything worth buying safely, as ultra-conservative (ultra-safe) as anything else I've found. It chooses higher credit risk to boost the yield, but the ultra short terms combined with the management style play a rock solid defense. The expense ratio is higher than average, but this is a very actively-managed fund. There are plenty of unmanaged index funds out there with very low expense ratios. If you think the market is going to crash though, that's the worst place you could be. This fund will serve two important functions: keep your money safe while beating inflation

Keeping your money in cash would be a bad idea at this point because money markets are 0% and more like -2 or -3% inflation-adjusted, and depending on what you're buying with it. If a thief stole 2% of our life savings we'd be running around with our hair on fire. When it comes out of our purchasing power, everyone recites from the hymnal about how legitimate and important it is.

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The various "civilization will end in months" threads over the years would agree with that statement. :P I swear some people seem to be looking forward to an economic collapse...

They were right every time. The x factor was our printing press. Who knew they would make a depression into the greatest depression by burying us in this amount of debt? But the chickens are definitly coming home to roost. Including NY and Cali, 11 states now have more people on welfare then they have employed. And over half the jobs that do exist are government jobs that only take from the economy. No one is looking forward to the collapse. But its coming regardless.

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What is stock market? Oh the fraud market if you are smart dont go in... The few big rollers who are already warring each other will just roll you over... There is so much fraud involved that if you arent a tycoon you dont stand any chance...

Plus this system monetary system is coming to an end because of markets and banks and their stupid thinking...There are so many bubbles in whole economy that i think when one bursts it will just collapse in a cascade. Still waiting for that day... soon ... very soon...

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A market system which has evolved towards treating the abstract thing that is money as its central purpose is doomed to fail. Correctly functioning markets are about facilitating real economic activity by moving real surplus from one place to another.

When money becomes the central issue we have the situation where the money supply expands almost infinitely, and yet the productive capacity is still starved of actual resources. We are in a situation where there is a black cloud of derivatives worth more than the whole rest of the economy combined - an incalculable amount of nominal money weighing heavy on the real economy, making real economic activity a poor return on investment. Yet fundamentally those derivatives are valueless but valued in real money. They have destroyed real money and the real economy.

On top of this the Central Banks have been pumping money it the real economy via the banks (who got us here) allowing them to earn money through negative interest whilst hoovering up the real assets of the world at distressed value.

The banks have no interest in running the world for anything other than personal enrichment and yet they have manipulated themselves into a situation where they control all real assets. Its a politically unsustainable situation and when the Chinese economy slows there will be a cascade of social revolution which will change everything. We are siting on a volcano just waiting for it to go off. There is no way to defuse this situation because the banks have the politicians held to ransom with a threat of crashing the economy and the Politicans have no ideas left since Neo-Liberalism displaced all other ideas. What we are witnessing is the buildup to the collapse of a flawed idea (Neo-Liberalism) and a return to a base state where some form of functional system which actually addre3sses the needs of a functional society will emerge. At this stage its impossible to envisage what that might actually look like.

It dizzys the mind just to think how bad things will be in a very short window.

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Posted (edited)

Money is the medium of exchange to move things from one place to another. You can do away with money and you still have markets. You'd have trade without medium. Socialism doesn't cure greed. Communism doesn't cure envy. Social democracies don't cure corruption. We're still going to have ghouls and gremlins in any economic theory, in any economic practice, in any form of government. History proves the best from the worst, not theoretical op-eds. These painstaking discussions that involve thrusting our theoretical opinions around as best for the rest of the world don't cure what ails human nature in a fundamental way.

Capitalism is the worst type of economy, except for all the other types of economies.

Edited by Yamato
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Posted (edited)

Money is the medium of exchange to move things from one place to another. You can do away with money and you still have markets. You'd have trade without medium. Socialism doesn't cure greed. Communism doesn't cure envy. Social democracies don't cure corruption. We're still going to have ghouls and gremlins in any economic theory, in any economic practice, in any form of government. History proves the best from the worst, not theoretical op-eds. These painstaking discussions that involve thrusting our theoretical opinions around as best for the rest of the world don't cure what ails human nature in a fundamental way.

Capitalism is the worst type of economy, except for all the other types of economies.

It is a self evidently stupid position to take to say that the system we currently have is the best of all possible systems. It has brought us to the edge of global economic collapse not seen since the 1920's, and it was the same fundamentally flawed system which caused the 1920's depression. The current system was the direct cause of the rise of the communist system which failed the world over 20years ago.

Its nothing about socialism - its about a form of capitalism which is intrinsically dysfunctional. Money which serves no other purpose than to make money has lost its roll. Money is only valuable in that it relates to real assets - but if the money supply has exploded due to money generating money without reference to real value, then it has become dysfunctional.

A flawed system has gobbled up all other contenders and there is no way out short of complete collapse.

Society is neither socialist or capitalist - it is a set of person to person interaction and if economics gets in the way of that functioning to serve societies needs then it has to fail by its own internal contradictions. That collapse will hopefully be a learning experience.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius

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The various "civilization will end in months" threads over the years would agree with that statement. :P I swear some people seem to be looking forward to an economic collapse...

Anyway I'd sell some stuff right now for the simple reason that stocks are worth a far bit at the moment. Gives you a good profit, though I'm not sure if you need to sell everything. Given how high stocks are right now it's completely reasonable for things to drop as people sell off their stocks. That's just how the stock market works but I doubt we'll be entering hobo territory. Plus some stocks tend to be more stable than others from my understanding.

Corp you are consistent, I'll give you that. But as to "looking forward to economic collapse" I don't see that as being fair. There is a lot of doom and gloom, sure, but 16 Trillion in debt, and no reason to believe it won't be 20 T by the time Obama leaves office, and somehow the world's economies are supposed to ride that out? If you have a plausible scenario of how that can happen, I'd love to hear it. For me, that number is just mind boggling.

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It is a self evidently stupid position to take to say that the system we currently have is the best of all possible systems.

The greatest economy in the history of mankind can't be all that bad; that said, we're not Capitalism (a theoretical ideal).

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The greatest economy in the history of mankind can't be all that bad; that said, we're not Capitalism (a theoretical ideal).

I don't think that is necessarily a position which can be defended. It greatly depends how you judge these things. I really don't rate the economy as anything other than destructive and dysfunctional and which has left most people in the world worse off.

Br Cornelius

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I don't think that is necessarily a position which can be defended. It greatly depends how you judge these things. I really don't rate the economy as anything other than destructive and dysfunctional and which has left most people in the world worse off.

Br Cornelius

Very true Br. I just cant help but to ask myself though if it had to be this way? Cause as far as I can tell, all this looks like its very intentional.

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Very true Br. I just cant help but to ask myself though if it had to be this way? Cause as far as I can tell, all this looks like its very intentional.

You have to remember that all those assets have flowed somewhere and that was no accident.

How they imagine they will keep their heads above water when the whole **** heap comes crashing down is beyond me though.

Br Cornelius

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Corp you are consistent, I'll give you that. But as to "looking forward to economic collapse" I don't see that as being fair. There is a lot of doom and gloom, sure, but 16 Trillion in debt, and no reason to believe it won't be 20 T by the time Obama leaves office, and somehow the world's economies are supposed to ride that out? If you have a plausible scenario of how that can happen, I'd love to hear it. For me, that number is just mind boggling.

Oh there's no doubt that the US debt needs to be taken care sooner rather than later. Personally I always found spending money you don't have to be pretty dumb. The problem with the US is that they need more income, which means taxes and spending cuts. However politics gets in the way as no one wants to cut funds to their private projects and more taxes seem akin to baby eating to some in the US. It's up to the American people to firmly tell their representives to stop screwing around or they'll be voted out...and then actually follow through with their threats.

As for the world economy it is suffering due to stupid government mistakes and greed and the US is hardly alone in this. Several European countries are a mess and seems China is sitting on a massive housing bubble. However there have been numerous economic failures throughout history and civilization has managed to survive. Personally I'd like to see government that focus more on balancing their budgets and working closer with like minded nations. Send a message to others that if they want to do more trade and business then they need to stop spending money like a drunk sailor on leave. Then offer suggestions and support to those that step up. Wishful thinking I know, but it'd be nice to see some effort to learn from past mistakes.

So should economic troubles be talked about? Of course. But screaming about how the world economy is doomed every few months is counter productive in my mind.

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With the stock market back up to a surprisingly and actually unexplainable high level, and a possible HUGE correction downward looming, I wonder if now would be a good time to take what I've got and finally get out ? I know that UM is probably not the best place to get investment advice. But I do like hearing opinions from everyone I know and if they've got the same feeling.

I just got this eerie feeling that the bottom is about to drop out.

Well billionaires are taking their money out, they have been in mass since the stock hit an all time high. I would say it is likely a good time to pull out. Some economist are predicting that the market is going to make a huge correction, mainly due to the artifical nature of the high, created by printing record amounts of money to keep the economy afloat. Though in all honesty, when it crashes completely the dollar won't even be worth the paper it is printed on.

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Just keep in mind, the stock hit an all time high in 2007 as well before the entire economy almost imploded, and the economy is more fragile now than it was then.

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I don't think that is necessarily a position which can be defended. It greatly depends how you judge these things. I really don't rate the economy as anything other than destructive and dysfunctional and which has left most people in the world worse off.

Then you won't be taken seriously in a discussion with economists about the economy. In a room full of environmentalists, sure.

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