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libstaK

Nth Korea cuts Military Hotline to Sth Korea

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Yeonpyeong Island, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea said Wednesday it was cutting off a key military hotline with South Korea amid high tensions between the two sides.

"Under the situation where a war may break out any moment, there is no need to keep north-south military communications," the head of a North Korean delegation told the South by telephone Wednesday, according to the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency.

The North linked the move to annual joint military exercises by South Korea and the United States, which it has cited in a string of threats against the two countries in recent weeks. Tougher sanctions approved by the U.N. Security Council have also fueled its anger.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/27/world/asia/north-korea-threats/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Really? No Reason? How about conciliation and mediation?

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North Korea doesn't want those things. They'd rather make threats until someone gives them what they want.

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"Really? No Reason? How about conciliation and mediation?" lK

I'm w/ C on this one.

North Korea doesn't want those things. They'd rather make threats until someone gives them what they want.

NK's behavior is irrational.

At some point, an end will be put to this. What I'd like to know is, how much of Seoul can be saved in the process.

I'm guessing Pyongyang won't be nuked by the West until after a summit meeting between the U.S. & China; and only after the U.S. has Chinese approval and pledge of cooperation in the aftermath will terminating the NK regime proceed.

I'm guessing likelihood of that may be ~<25%; but may grow more likely if NK's erratic behavior and destruction escalate.

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Just who is pulling the strings in NK these days ?

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So 1 less working phone in NK,i guess chubby has the last one left

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Just who is pulling the strings in NK these days ?

Yeah, that's hard to say.

I realize China has to some extent "buffered" NK for quite a while, in the sense of considering them an ally, but now I don't know.

China's not too happy with NK at this time, and NK doesn't seem to care.

So, good question.

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Yeah, that's hard to say.

I realize China has to some extent "buffered" NK for quite a while, in the sense of considering them an ally, but now I don't know.

China's not too happy with NK at this time, and NK doesn't seem to care.

So, good question.

With Kim Jong Il's death, Kim Jong Un is thrust into power.

I'm guessing there are many in NK's politburo that are experienced totalitarians that resent young Un's supremacy, when he's a lad less than half their age.

They're his senior in age and experience, but they're his junior in rank.

I'll bet ambitious totalitarian bureaucrats like that don't like being bossed around by a kid.

& KJU knows it.

For KJU to stave off a palace coup d’état he may feel he has to flaunt his indomitable leadership and skill by:

- successfully launching a rocket

- attempting to launch a satellite into orbit

- continuing nuclear tests

- etc.

"Ambassador" Denis Rodman personally visited NK, and had an extended personal audience with KJU.

Rodman reports:

a) KJU does NOT want War with the U.S.

B) KJU wants Obama to telephone KJU.

Candidly, I think some low level U.S. emissary should contact KJU.

Perhaps what's preventing it is they can't get sufficient privacy to promote / provide the candor necessary.

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Well a major North Korean factory that's run by South Koreans is still operating normally so they're not mad enough to risk one of their few bright spots in their economy.

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This will blow over soon. Then in about 1 to 2 years when they test another nuke it will be the same song and dance.

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KJU is a kid trying to play with Adults,they will tolerate him for just so long then he will be sent to the naughty seat by his Seniors.

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There will be know conflict between NK or SK. Its a farse to instill fear and propaganda to proliferate the war machine nothing more.

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Posted (edited)

I think its possible the military will throw Kim Jung UN out and It may become a military state

Edited by jesspy
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I think its possible the military will throw Kim Jung UN out and It may become a military state

LOL

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LOL

? What's funny about that? As it stands they may mostly be controlled by the military but not completely. If Un falls down some stairs - or chokes on some Jenny Craig - then the generals could REALLY do what they want without interference. Not so hard to believe.

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? What's funny about that? As it stands they may mostly be controlled by the military but not completely. If Un falls down some stairs - or chokes on some Jenny Craig - then the generals could REALLY do what they want without interference. Not so hard to believe.

I think what is truly amusing is the idea that the Generals may not already be doing exactly as they please, I'm pretty sure KJU is a well played puppet.

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With Kim Jong Il's death, Kim Jong Un is thrust into power.

I'm guessing there are many in NK's politburo that are experienced totalitarians that resent young Un's supremacy, when he's a lad less than half their age.

They're his senior in age and experience, but they're his junior in rank.

I'll bet ambitious totalitarian bureaucrats like that don't like being bossed around by a kid.

& KJU knows it.

For KJU to stave off a palace coup d’état he may feel he has to flaunt his indomitable leadership and skill by:

- successfully launching a rocket

- attempting to launch a satellite into orbit

- continuing nuclear tests

- etc.

"Ambassador" Denis Rodman personally visited NK, and had an extended personal audience with KJU.

Rodman reports:

a) KJU does NOT want War with the U.S.

B) KJU wants Obama to telephone KJU.

Candidly, I think some low level U.S. emissary should contact KJU.

Perhaps what's preventing it is they can't get sufficient privacy to promote / provide the candor necessary.

I don't think this issue is about misunderstanding or lack of honesty as much as it is a miscalculation of intent and resolve by the south as seen in the north. They have been often rewarded for the bluster and know of no other way to get what they need. They seem totally unwilling to show ANY indication of weakness. They should now be ignored until/unless they strike first. Then the top leadership should be brutally decapitated.

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Posted (edited)

Maybe he wants to be invaded, i.e. saved and is actually afraid of all those generals! (just a thought)

Edited by Eldorado

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"I don't think this issue is about misunderstanding or lack of honesty as much as it is a miscalculation of intent and resolve by the south as seen in the north." at

?

I don't know what precipitated the 1950's era War in Korea. I gather "communism" factored into it somehow.

But what matters is now.

The NK regime's raison d’être is survival. And so they've resorted to a timeless political canard: -the malevolent external enemy-.

Without that, NKs would be less preoccupied, more able to reflect on domestic shortcomings.

But with a ruthless, malevolent foe to be defended against, the People are united in common cause.

"They seem totally unwilling to show ANY indication of weakness" at

"... a tight grip is actually a sign of a weak hand." President William Jefferson Clinton 99/04/07 C-SPAN

"They should now be ignored until/unless they strike first. Then the top leadership should be brutally decapitated." at

Then what?

China doesn't want millions of mentally and physically stunted NK refugees streaming across its borders.

One of the things that would have to be accomplished in an NK regime change would be containing the NK's within NK borders.

That would mean they'd have to be fed, clothed, and educated.

That's a daunting task. And who but the Arabs could afford it?

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PS

"Maybe he wants to be invaded, i.e. saved and is actually afraid of all those generals! (just a thought)" E

While the median income & lifestyle of NK is abysmal, politburo members live quite lavishly.

What they're doing is protecting their pampered existences, at the expense of millions in their charge.

Candidly, I'd rather live as a pensioner in Denmark.

But sadly, there are a few that would rather rule in Hell than serve in Heaven. And the NK regime persists.

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?

I don't know what precipitated the 1950's era War in Korea. I gather "communism" factored into it somehow.

But what matters is now.

The NK regime's raison d’être is survival. And so they've resorted to a timeless political canard: -the malevolent external enemy-.

Without that, NKs would be less preoccupied, more able to reflect on domestic shortcomings.

But with a ruthless, malevolent foe to be defended against, the People are united in common cause.

"... a tight grip is actually a sign of a weak hand." President William Jefferson Clinton 99/04/07 C-SPAN

Then what?

China doesn't want millions of mentally and physically stunted NK refugees streaming across its borders.

One of the things that would have to be accomplished in an NK regime change would be containing the NK's within NK borders.

That would mean they'd have to be fed, clothed, and educated.

That's a daunting task. And who but the Arabs could afford it?

The point here is that it is not the responsibility of the US or the west in general to succumb to coercion by this regime. China has been using the Norks for decades as a pitt bull against the US and now they need to feed their dog. They cannot eat their cake and have it as well.
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"China has been using the Norks for decades as a pitt bull against the US and now they need to feed their dog." at

China is doing a very delicate balancing act.

North Korea isn't propping up China.

China has been propping up North Korea.

Among the most successful, most prosperous aspects of China are among the most Westernized aspects of China.

Apart from air pollution, a Chinese city like Beijing is about as modern a city as one can find on Earth.

China's got some decisions to make.

And while I'm surely no expert on it, I've heard China may be closer than we think to substantially revising its relationship with NK.

For one thing, I gather China instructed NK against missile and nuclear tests.

NK went ahead with both.

So now China's asking: what are WE getting out of this? NK is an awfully expensive way for China to buffer Western friendly South Korea from itself.

It wouldn't surprise me if when the spit hits the fan, either China will switch sides, or perhaps go neutral; according NK not much as hindrance or aid.

Seoul is the pivot.

I gather the U.S. could take out NK the way President Bush (elder) waged the Gulf War; all ~hundred hours of it.

But by the time KJU was a puddle of singed protoplasm, Seoul would be a smoldering crater. Thus the stand-off.

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I am not so sure about Seoul being completely destroyed unless a nuclear weapon would be used, in which case North Korea would cease to exist. Using only conventional artillery and rockets I highly doubt North Korea would be able to completely destroy Seoul. There is no doubt with the massive amount of artillery and rockets aimed at Seoul that the city would be greatly damaged but those same artillery and rockets would also be attacked within the first shots being fired. With how close the US is and how advanced the US air force is along with counter artillery and rocket strikes from South Korea I can't imagine it taking more then a few hours for most of the North Korean artillery and rockets to be silenced and for them to be completely silenced after 4 or 5 days. It takes awhile to completely destroy a city with conventional weapons and with them being attacked in return, every hour there would be less firing.

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? What's funny about that? As it stands they may mostly be controlled by the military but not completely. If Un falls down some stairs - or chokes on some Jenny Craig - then the generals could REALLY do what they want without interference. Not so hard to believe.

What's lol? Surely NK has been a Military state since about 1951.

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"I am not so sure about Seoul being completely destroyed unless a nuclear weapon would be used" DH

The reports I've read of it indicate Seoul is within NK artillery range.

I don't recall any indication Pyonyang is within SK artillery range. As a reminder, Seoul is the capital of SK. As little as a single well placed artillery round could snarl South Korean federal government.

The point is, it's at risk.

Whether there are SK contingency plans to neutralize NK artillary across the full length of the DMZ, I don't know.

I'd be astounded if there aren't.

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What's lol? Surely NK has been a Military state since about 1951.

Absolutely, but they have also been controlled by a cult of personality surrounding the Kim parade of stars. The military would have a bit of trouble controlling them all without that aspect of it, don't you think? Like Mao in the '60s and Saddam and Assad? The military was the real power but the "dear leader" was the glue that gave it all some legitimacy. That's all I mean.

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