A Tumbling Apophis: Good News for Earth

[Waspie_Dwarf]

A Tumbling Apophis: Good News for Earth

Asteroid 99942 Apophis isn't a huge threat to Earth — at least not for the next century. Telescopic observations made in early 2013 show that it is both elongated and tumbling, characteristics that help predict its future location.

Asteroid 99942 Apophis has been worrisome ever since its discovery in 2004. Estimated to be a bit more than 1,000 feet (300 m) across, it would deliver the kinetic-energy equivalent of 500 megatons of TNT were it to strike Earth — which it might well do some day. At first, dynamicists predicted a dangerously close pass in 2029 and a 3% chance of collision. More observations eased those fears — but triggered worry instead about a threatening flyby in March 2036.

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[promKing]

Apophis is coming really close to Earth in 2029 to only 30 000 km. It's gonna bang with some orbital satellites, but that's very close to be left to only what few people in one place to decide/ calculate if it's gonna hit or not. I mean where's the second opinion? This could kill millions and millions of people and yet... It comes to my mind question that people ask scientists "Could someone hide the fact that killer asteroid is coming?" and they always answer with "No because lots of people have telescopes and they could see it." - but so what? There's still public consensus that says if it's gonna hit or just nearly miss.

Are you gonna do the calculations? Am I? Who will? Not just that, if let's say some scientists in Russia do it and say the comet will hit us people will just wave they're hands with "Ah stupid drunk Russians. What do they know."

If killer comet comes it will probably be like from that classic SF novel "Lucifer's Hammer" in which giant comet hits the Earth but they all expect it to be near miss and people that actually think it'll hit Earth are just thought as religious fanatics and lunatics.

Edited August 1, 2013 by promKing

[Waspie_Dwarf]

It's gonna bang with some orbital satellites,

Probably not. Most satellites are in low Earth orbit (LEO) and only a few hundred miles up, so it will not come close to these. Most communications satellites orbit 42,164 km up and so Apophis will pass through their orbit. However space is big and satellites are small. The chance of a satellite actually being hit is small.

but that's very close to be left to only what few people in one place to decide/ calculate if it's gonna hit or not.

It's not left to a few people to decide. Anyone can do the calculations. Every observatory in the world with sufficiently large telescopes can observe Apophis. If the calculations are incorrect it will be obvious.

I mean where's the second opinion?

Mathematics needs no second opinions. Put the same data in and you will get the same result out, just as 1+1 will always equal 2. It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact.

This could kill millions and millions of people and yet...

And yet the calculations show it wont in 2029.

It comes to my mind question that people ask scientists "Could someone hide the fact that killer asteroid is coming?" and they always answer with "No because lots of people have telescopes and they could see it." - but so what? There's still public consensus that says if it's gonna hit or just nearly miss.

Just because you don't know how to do the calculations do not assume that the hundreds of thousands of astronomers around the world, amateur and professional, don't know how to do the calculations. Orbital mechanics have been understood since the time of Kepler and Newton, it is not a secret, it is not a matter of smoke and mirrors.

Are you gonna do the calculations? Am I? Who will?

Well given the level of knowledge you've demonstrated so far I'm guessing it's not going to be you.

Not just that, if let's say some scientists in Russia do it and say the comet will hit us people will just wave they're hands with "Ah stupid drunk Russians. What do they know."

It won't happen. All the data that is used is public and obtained from observatories all around the world. Since (as I have said before) if you do the same calculation with the same numbers you will always get the same result no one is going to get a different result.

If killer comet comes it will probably be like from that classic SF novel "Lucifer's Hammer" in which giant comet hits the Earth but they all expect it to be near miss and people that actually think it'll hit Earth are just thought as religious fanatics and lunatics.

Now the key thing about science fiction is the word FICTION. A good book, but it's just a story.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Waspie_Dwarf

[Taun]

-snip-

Mathematics needs no second opinions. Put the same data in and you will get the same result out, just as 1+1 will always equal 2. It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact.

-snip-

Not in Boolean Algebra... 1+1 = 1 unless it's "notted" in which case it equals 0 (Binary/Electronics of course)..

Just being a bit silly - but I agree with everything you said waspie...

Edited August 1, 2013 by Taun

[promKing]

wow I'm so lucky stumbling on a "smart" guy to put me in my place.