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Yamato

Ben Shalom Bernanke: What Are You Afraid Of?

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The world economy is sub-par but not terrible. This is I think mainly because of European digestion troubles, Obama's regulatory and tax attitudes, the Republican failure to understand economic reality, and a Chinese cycle. Put them together and a few other less important things and you get what we see.

The main rule when there is little inflation and high unemployment is to avoid austerity. People like Sanatelli are hard-money austerity no deficit types, and so disapprove of what the Fed is doing. They are wrong and the Fed is right.

Oh, we get Bloomberg, Fox News, CNN, CNBC, BBC and several Australian and Asian news and business broadcasts. The only thing I really miss about TV here as opposed to the States is PBS and the Cable Public Affairs Channels. I don't miss the standard US networks one bit.

And when the GDP is below 3%, avoid austerity. And when housing prices are still subdued, avoid austerity. And when some CEO testifies in front of Congress that they need a bailout, avoid austerity. There's hardly a reason left not to avoid austerity. It's all political BS Frank, it's sad you can't see that. The question is begged, how good does it have to get before they take away the punch bowl and let the hangover begin? What are they so afraid of? They're afraid of their house of cards falling over as soon as the foundation all these inflated prices are laying on gets removed.

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Posted (edited)

Maybe if i explain it in these terms:

Look at QE and economy as a baby being created in a petri dish. The environment of its creation might not be "natural" as we know it. But the result isn't any less real than another baby. It's still a child with a future and it will have to fight for itself once it gets taken out of its artificial environment.

Edited by Render

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You are mistaking.

The eyes were more focussed on Europe last year and speculation of what might happen or not. It was pretty pointless. Now, since the economy is showing signs of improvement, they are focussed more and more on the numbers. Im sorry if you can't accept this simple truth. Maybe you should lay of the markets for a while, because all this panic and Santelli talk can't be good for you.

Apparantly i do have to repeat this bit: The Feds are trying to ignite a working autonomous economy, so if QE stops it can take the initial shock and just move on with little, possible, losses. That's the whole point.

If the economy is deemed strong enough to go ahead without QE, this is also means it is deemed strong enough to pay of debts.

If you still don't get it, then just leave this conversation all together.

Sorry, you can't tell me that the eyes weren't paying attention to the US last year because they were looking at Europe. That's ridiculous. Every major corporation in America pays attention to itself first. There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.

The economy has been showing signs of improvement for years now, on borrowed time and borrowed money and artificial economic conditions that bear no resemblance to what the market is going to do once those conditions are lifted.

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Posted (edited)

Sorry, you can't tell me that the eyes weren't paying attention to the US last year because they were looking at Europe. That's ridiculous. Every major corporation in America pays attention to itself first. There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.

The economy has been showing signs of improvement for years now, on borrowed time and borrowed money and artificial economic conditions that bear no resemblance to what the market is going to do once those conditions are lifted.

There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.

thanks for proving my point

Last year main focus was on Europe. The markets reacted more to political situations, less to hard data. Now that the economy is beginning to show a positive trend, as a results of all these years of stimulus, it's starting to focus on the data more. Because the results are finally being reaped. The Nas and Dow , S&P finally went higher than in the past. That got everyone's attention this year. Wake up.

Do you understand what trend means? It doesn't mean the usual up and downs of the market we've been seeing the last couple of year. It means a consistent path towards a certain direction. And this trend is now just starting to form, which deserves attention. which it is getting now. It's almost make or break time, and markets are showing it. So European politics are less important suddenly.

Edited by Render

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thanks for proving my point

Last year main focus was on Europe. The markets reacted more to political situations, less to hard data. Now that the economy is beginning to show a positive trend, as a results of all these years of stimulus, it's starting to focus on the data more. Because the results are finally being reaped. The Nas and Dow , S&P finally went higher than in the past. That got everyone's attention this year. Wake up.

Do you understand what trend means? It doesn't mean the usual up and downs of the market we've been seeing the last couple of year. It means a consistent path towards a certain direction. And this trend is now just starting to form, which deserves attention. which it is getting now. It's almost make or break time, and markets are showing it. So European politics are less important suddenly.

No, I don't know where you're getting your information at but you need to look at a chart right away. The recovery in the markets has been the trend for years already. Europe and last year didn't do anything to this trend. If you can't admit you're wrong after seeing any major stock index chart I will gladly carry the water and post here for you, then you don't know what you're talking about and you're hopelessly unable to admit it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

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Posted (edited)

No, I don't know where you're getting your information at but you need to look at a chart right away. The recovery in the markets has been the trend for years already. Europe and last year didn't do anything to this trend. If you can't admit you're wrong after seeing any major stock index chart I will gladly carry the water and post here for you, then you don't know what you're talking about and you're hopelessly unable to admit it.

http://finance.yahoo...=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

YOu really don't have a clue do you?

What, again, i am saying is. A positive trend is beginning to show in data, that economy is possibly starting to move in the right direction. So markets are now aligning themselves with this, shown by a bull market from the beginning of this year. So they are correlating with the data. Now the markets feel the economy is being threatened by a possible loosening of QE, shown by a bear raid.

Were you alive in 2012, did you notice the massive bear market? So why oh why, if data has been positively trending for all this time, according to you..was there such a heavy bear market?? because there was no trend so attention turned towards Europe and politics.

There was no TREND last year in data in the US. One week you had a semi good job report, the next couple of weeks they were awful, then you had one week it could be perceived as beating the odds, to just have another bad report after that. So no trend was set. Get it?

Now good report after good report has been shown..since the beginning quarter of this year. So markets are turning their eyes over to the data and watching closely to see if the positive trends holds or fails.

OPEN YOUR EYES, following stock markets isn't just looking at one lousy chart.

Edited by Render
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Posted (edited)

YOu really don't have a clue do you?

What, again, i am saying is. A positive trend is beginning to show in data, that economy is possibly starting to move in the right direction. So markets are now aligning themselves with this, shown by a bull market from the beginning of this year. So they are correlating with the data. Now the markets feel the economy is being threatened by a possible loosening of QE, shown by a bear raid.

Were you alive in 2012, did you notice the massive bear market? So why oh why, if data has been positively trending for all this time, according to you..was there such a heavy bear market?? because there was no trend so attention turned towards Europe and politics.

There was no TREND last year in data in the US. One week you had a semi good job report, the next couple of weeks they were awful, then you had one week it could be perceived as beating the odds, to just have another bad report after that. So no trend was set. Get it?

Now good report after good report has been shown..since the beginning quarter of this year. So markets are turning their eyes over to the data and watching closely to see if the positive trends holds or fails.

OPEN YOUR EYES, following stock markets isn't just looking at one lousy chart.

Look at any chart of any major index to prove how delirious you are.

The trend in US employment, just like the markets has already been established for years already.

us-unemployment-05-12.png

A trend isn't defined as avoiding the ups and downs that the market is always going to have. I don't know what you're talking about. What trend is just beginning that hasn't already started years ago? Show me the source of your information that this trend in whatever it is you think you're talking about is "just beginning" now. If you can't show me what you're talking about I am going to conclude that you are incapable of showing it.

Edited by Yamato

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Posted (edited)

Look at any chart of any major index to prove how delirious you are.

The trend in US employment, just like the markets has already been getting lower for years already. A trend isn't defined as avoiding the ups and downs that the market is always going to have. I don't know what you're talking about. What trend is just beginning that hasn't already started years ago? Show me the source of your information that this trend in whatever it is you think you're talking about is just beginning now.

The hell? Are you actually asking me to give you links to every job, housing report the last couple of years?? Can't you look at information yourself?

The markets haven't been good for a while, lots of bear markets. If only investing was as easy as following your major indexes charts, then we'd all be rich eh. Cmon...you have to realise there's more behind it. If you didn't follow the news the last 5 years then i can't help you. I can't just sum up 5 years in one post. Or actually i can : It was bad and now it may be going better, but it still has to prove itself. You either are knowledgeable about the facts or you aren't.

US employment is getting lower??? So you are not even up with current reports. So you're just trying to discuss things here you know nothing about. Pointless.

Job gains have gone up, unemployment has been going down.

Unemployment rate april 2012: 8.2, now 7.6.

Job gains June 2012: 69000, now 175 000

And these reports are also more or less consistent with recoveries in home sales etc... that's why it's possibly the beginning of a trend, it's all coming together. And now it just has to hold.

But you don't have a clue, so whatever. Pointless.

I don't know what you're talking about.

Maybe we should just leave it at that.

Edited by Render
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The hell? Are you actually asking me to give you links to every job, housing report the last couple of years?? Can't you look at information yourself?

The markets haven't been good for a while, lots of bear markets. If only investing was as easy as following your major indexes charts, then we'd all be rich eh. Cmon...you have to realise there's more behind it. If you didn't follow the news the last 5 years then i can't help you. I can't just sum up 5 years in one post. Or actually i can : It was bad and now it may be going better, but it still has to prove itself. You either are knowledgeable about the facts or you aren't.

US employment is getting lower??? So you are not even up with current reports. So you're just trying to discuss things here you know nothing about. Pointless.

Job gains have gone up, unemployment has been going down.

Unemployment rate april 2012: 8.2, now 7.6.

Job gains June 2012: 69000, now 175 000

And these reports are also consistend with recoveries in home sales etc... that's why it's possibly the beginning of a trend, it's all coming together. And now it just has to hold.

But you don't have a clue, so whatever. Pointless.

Home prices have been trending higher for years. Stock prices have been trending higher for years. Unemployment rates have been trending lower for years. There is no trend you can show that's just beginning now.

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Pointless.

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Pointless.

When you have no evidence for your claims that a trend is just beginning now, yes it is pointless to keep repeating yourself.

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Posted (edited)

When you have no evidence for your claims that a trend is just beginning now, yes it is pointless to keep repeating yourself.

the evidence is all around you

You simply refuse to see it for some reason.

Maybe re read this thread until you understand. And look up some extra information about stock markets. And see how it has gone better, very slightly last couple of years, only to go down hard again and level out. Now we're looking for a more long lasting positive trend. Which would point towards a strong economy. Which is why QE is starting to talk only now, after all these years, about possibly loosening the grips of QE. GET IT? That's why it hasn't been up for discussion before, because this is the first time in a long time a longer actual positive trend may be happening. And the stock market is watching like a hawk and acting accordingly.

If you're gonna carry on being oblivious and posting you lil charts, thinking you understand it all..then whatever, keep deluding yourself.

Edited by Render

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the evidence is all around you

You simply refuse to see it for some reason.

Maybe re read this thread until you understand. And look up some extra information about stock markets. And see how it has gone better, very slightly last couple of years, only to go down hard again and level out. Now we're looking for a more long lasting positive trend. Which would point towards a strong economy. Which is why QE is starting to talk only now, after all these years, about possibly loosening the grips of QE. GET IT? That's why it hasn't been up for discussion before, because this is the first time in a long time a longer actual positive trend may be happening. And the stock market is watching like a hawk and acting accordingly.

If you're gonna carry on being oblivious and posting you lil charts, thinking you understand it all..then whatever, keep deluding yourself.

I'm not oblivious when all the data confirms what I'm saying. There's not a single trend you can show that's just beginning now so I must reject your claims as false.

The other major trend that's been ongoing for years that we haven't discussed yet is debt accumulation. If there was any real underlying recovery not dependent on Ben Bernanke's heroin injections, we wouldn't have routs like we just had for the past two days. He can't even hint at letting up without a sell-off.

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rofl.gif

Are you gonna keep going in circles or actually start learning what it's all about?

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I'm not oblivious when all the data confirms what I'm saying. There's not a single trend you can show that's just beginning now so I must reject your claims as false.

The other major trend that's been ongoing for years that we haven't discussed yet is debt accumulation. If there was any real underlying recovery not dependent on Ben Bernanke's heroin injections, we wouldn't have routs like we just had for the past two days. He can't even hint at letting up without a sell-off.

Didn't the stock mart plunge more than 350 points yesterday?

Stocks plunged Thursday as investors reacted for the second day to the Federal Reserve signaling it may pull back later this year on its massive bond buying that has helped fuel the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 353.87 points, 2.3%, to 14,758.32 -- its biggest one-day point drop since Nov. 9, 2011 -- when it ended down 389 points. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 finished down 40.74 points, a drop of 2.6%, to 1,588.19 and below the psychologically significant 1,600 mark. The tech-laden Nasdaq composite index dropped 78.57 points, 2.3%, to 3,364.64.

The blue-chip Dow is now 5% lower than its all-time high set in late May. And it's the eighth straight day of triple-digit moves up or down in the Dow, the longest such streak since early October 2011.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 2.42%, the highest level in 22 months. Gold prices plummeted more than 6.9%, $94, to $1,280 an ounce. And oil prices fell to about $93.45 a barrel, a 3.9% decline for the day.

Investors are reacting so negatively because fear is setting in on how well the market can do without the intervention of the Fed, says Michael Farr of Farr, Miller & Washington. "The reaction we're seeing should be expected after five years of dependency on Fed intervention and monentary policy," Miller says.

The transition of the market to stand on its own two feet, rather than counting on easy money from the Fed, is hammering investors who piled into risky stocks that were riding the wave of quantitative easing, he says. "Risky stocks are no place to be right now," he says.

From: http://www.digtriad.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=288428

Stocks took a sharp nosedive across the board Thursday, with the Dow posting its worst day of 2013, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted the central bank may scale back its asset purchases later this year.

With the declines from the last two sessions, the Dow and S&P 500 wiped out all of their gains from May and June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) plummeted 354 points, with all 30 components in the red. The last time the blue-chip index closed down more than 300 points was last November. The Dow is down more than 5 percent since its May closing high.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) also closed near their lows, with the S&P crashing through a key 1,598 level that traders had been watching. All three major averages were back in negative territory for the week, and on track for their fourth-weekly decline in the last five weeks.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, spiked near 20, hitting a new high for the year.

All key S&P sectors finished sharply in the red. Defensive names have been getting hit the hardest over the last two days, the last two days, with utilities and telecoms down more than 4 percent each.

From: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-nosedive-2-dow-ends-192903040.html

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A whole economic theory based on one day in the market.

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A whole economic theory based on one day in the market.

:D

haha, man are they gonna be confused when stocks go up today. Well, they're pointing up so far, so let's see.

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I'm a little scared. For awhile Bernanke talks tight, market goes down, Bernanke talks opening, market thinks economy is tanking, goes down. For the summer it looks "lose lose" for the market.

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I'm a little scared. For awhile Bernanke talks tight, market goes down, Bernanke talks opening, market thinks economy is tanking, goes down. For the summer it looks "lose lose" for the market.

I dno. The weekly reports and such wont stop coming. So as long as the numbers stay positive, i dont think the market is gonna tank severly.

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I guess. I've thought I had it made a couple times in my life only to see it dissolve, so I guess I am bound to be uneasy at sudden swings. The company I work for is American so now I have a considerable interest in how well the economy there does.

I let you have the ball today with the no-nothings, as you seem to be better at keeping your patience and know more. /Grin/

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:D

haha, man are they gonna be confused when stocks go up today. Well, they're pointing up so far, so let's see.

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. This doesn't mean trends don't exist. Stocks have been trending upwards for years already, there's nothing in stock prices that's "just happening now". What this also means is that I'm not looking at the past two or three days to figure out what I think about the general direction of stock prices.

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The company I work for is American so now I have a considerable interest in how well the economy there does.

And that's exactly why it's ridiculous to like a post claiming that US analysts were too busy looking at Europe to pay attention the US markets last year. 300 million Americans living in America have vastly more interest than you do because every aspect of their lives is effected. The only reason we pay attention to anywhere else is for the effects it has on our own economy.

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What???? This data is public knowledge, that's what markets reacts to. What the hell....so Bernanke is only drawing the conclusions everyone else can draw. Apart from the sensationlist conspiracy theorists.

It's not there yet because the numbers are only beginning to improve, so yes more stimulus is required to set a trend . DUh.

Yea thats what you folks were saying from 2006 right up till a week before the crash in 08. Straight laughed at the "conspiracy theorists" or the "doom and gloomer's: people, including Peter Schiff, who saw the whole damn thing for exactly what it was.

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Posted (edited)

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. This doesn't mean trends don't exist. Stocks have been trending upwards for years already, there's nothing in stock prices that's "just happening now". What this also means is that I'm not looking at the past two or three days to figure out what I think about the general direction of stock prices.

No clue you have.

And that's exactly why it's ridiculous to like a post claiming that US analysts were too busy looking at Europe to pay attention the US markets last year. 300 million Americans living in America have vastly more interest than you do because every aspect of their lives is effected. The only reason we pay attention to anywhere else is for the effects it has on our own economy.

Seriously, if you think this is what i said .... just give it up. Don't even think about stocks, you don't get it. Or you can carry on freaking out over it in the "sightings, reportings, experiences" section

or something. Im not gonna repeat myself again to a wall.

Yea thats what you folks were saying from 2006 right up till a week before the crash in 08. Straight laughed at the "conspiracy theorists" or the "doom and gloomer's: people, including Peter Schiff, who saw the whole damn thing for exactly what it was.

What folks? The fact that you're throwing in the 2008 crash shows how you also do not understand anything about what is in this thread. It's just an easy to-go point for unknowledgeable ppl that want to speculate over doom scenarios. Oh and btw, you apparantly also don't understand that ppl are more cautious now obviously, and that no one .. apart from conspiracy theorists, claims that the ecnonomy is doing good. AGAIN: NO ONE IS SAYING THE ECONOMY IS GOOD, IT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGHTENING, BUT THIS TREND HAS TO HOLD TO BE SURE. SO FOR THE TIME BEING QE IS GOING AHEAD WITH ITS STIMULATIN' UNTIL THE ECONOMY IS DEEMD STRONG ENOUGH TO LET IT LOOSE, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE SOMETIME AROUND MID 2014. AND THIS ONLY IF THE CURRENT POSSIBLE POSITIVES HOLDS, BECAUSE BEFORE THERE WASN"T A POSITIVE HOLDING TREND TO SPEAK OF, WHICH IS WHY THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THERE IS TALK OF LOOSENING QE.

why do i even bother with this?

Edited by Render
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What folks? The fact that you're throwing in the 2008 crash shows how you also do not understand anything about what is in this thread. It's just an easy to-go point for unknowledgeable ppl that want to speculate over doom scenarios. Oh and btw, you apparantly also don't understand that ppl are more cautious now obviously, and that no one .. apart from conspiracy theorists, claims that the ecnonomy is doing good. AGAIN: NO ONE IS SAYING THE ECONOMY IS GOOD, IT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGHTENING, BUT THIS TREND HAS TO HOLD TO BE SURE. SO FOR THE TIME BEING QE IS GOING AHEAD WITH ITS STIMULATIN' UNTIL THE ECONOMY IS DEEMD STRONG ENOUGH TO LET IT LOOSE, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE SOMETIME AROUND MID 2014. AND THIS ONLY IF THE CURRENT POSSIBLE POSITIVES HOLDS, BECAUSE BEFORE THERE WASN"T A POSITIVE HOLDING TREND TO SPEAK OF, WHICH IS WHY THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THERE IS TALK OF LOOSENING QE.

why do i even bother with this?

You have to ask which folks, then at the same tme tell me I dont know what Im talking about? The same damn people who are now telling you the economy is recovering, while at the same time dismissing the people who were right, again. Very much including Ben Bernaky.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

I really have no idea why you bother. You are askig us to believe in the people who #1 caused this mess to begin with, and #2 have since made the worst possible decisions to correct it. Intentionaly. No one apart from "conspiracy theorist" even saw any of this coming to begin with. Even though it should have been more then obvious.

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