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keithisco

Does Israel have a .....

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No links, nothing else to follow, just a question---

Where is the evidence that Israel ACTUALLY has nuclear weapons? OK, it is assumed (Internationally) that Israel may have up to 80 Nuclear warheads, but no-one is actually offering any evidence of this - certainly NOT Israel.

So are all the assumptions simply reinforced to dupe the rest of the Middle East (Israel is not european, it is ME) to believe that Israel is Untouchable? To make the rest of the ME believe that Israel has capabilities beyond its ability to deliver?

It is also assumed, on this forum, that Israel DOES have a Nuclear capability, but what if it doesn´t, how does this change the politics in the M.E??

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They might be on Warships or ultra secret silos somewhere South, i dunno you wouldnt tell people where they are.

Israel could of used Nuclear Weapons during the Iraq war

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If not then Israel owes THIS guy, big time ;)

http://en.wikipedia....ordechai_Vanunu

Still does not constitute unequivocal evidence that Israel has any such weapons. It could all just be a Red Herring to make the rest of the world "believe" that Israel has a nuclear capabilty. I remain to be convinced otherwise

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Still no proof

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Still no proof

It's an interesting question. It seems that only an official, verifiable test of a nuke would satisfy your requirements. Somehow I doubt Israel will oblige. Bottom line is that the world believes - and that's good enough. It would be one hell of a gamble to prove the issue.
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Israel's nuclear capability is? good question. but what of its delivery system, is it by Land Air or Sea? i've never really thought about it until this post by Keith. maybe their nuclear system is the USA. a bit like Japan were the US guarantees defence measures. so Japan doesn't go all crazy again.

Edited by stevewinn

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Israel's nuclear capability is? good question. but what of its delivery system, is it by Land Air or Sea? i've never really thought about it until this post by Keith. maybe their nuclear system is the USA. a bit like Japan were the US guarantees defence measures. so Japan doesn't go all crazy again.

The general consensus (except for K and Yam as I recall :) Is that the IDF have between 80 and 400 warheads deliverable by artillery tube, aircraft, ballistic missile and submarine launched cruise missiles.
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Maybe they have nothing... just a bluff, by not joining the non - proliferation treaty. All nuclear nations need to test their capabilities and their delivery systems to ensure their functionality. When did Israel last test a nuke, underground or elsewhere? Never, is the resounding answer.

I am curious, thats all... I just cant help feeling that we are all being sucked into the "Big Lie". I am leaning towards Steve´s idea, that the Nuclear Guarantee is actually based in the USA.

@and then.... perhaps "General Consensus" is what Israel is depending on, nothing more than a "Paper Tiger":

Edited by keithisco
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The general consensus (except for K and Yam as I recall :) Is that the IDF have between 80 and 400 warheads deliverable by artillery tube, aircraft, ballistic missile and submarine launched cruise missiles.

The UK's delivery system is the American Trident D5 missile. but the warhead is British. i wonder if Israel's delivery system is American based or 'home made' - off to google.

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Israel's nuclear capability is? good question. but what of its delivery system, is it by Land Air or Sea? i've never really thought about it until this post by Keith. maybe their nuclear system is the USA. a bit like Japan were the US guarantees defence measures. so Japan doesn't go all crazy again.

They have carrier systems for nukes like the dolphin class submarines those can carry and launch cruise missiles. Bomb and missile carry systems are also in service there. And, Israels main military equipment providers are the US, Germany and France.

Edited by toast

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Maybe they have nothing... just a bluff, by not joining the non - proliferation treaty. All nuclear nations need to test their capabilities and their delivery systems to ensure their functionality. When did Israel last test a nuke, underground or elsewhere? Never, is the resounding answer.

I am curious, thats all... I just cant help feeling that we are all being sucked into the "Big Lie". I am leaning towards Steve´s idea, that the Nuclear Guarantee is actually based in the USA.

@and then.... perhaps "General Consensus" is what Israel is depending on, nothing more than a "Paper Tiger":

Perhaps. No way to really know unless someone decides to tempt fate. Considering the rather phenomenal success the IDF have strung together, I think it would be a sketchy bet.

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I think Israel does have Nuclear strike capability - maybe Israel doesn't officially confirm because doing so would open a bigger can of worms. which would be detrimental to its situation in the middle east. having to then comply with UN resolutions, IAEA treaties etc... by not officially confirming having nuclear weapons they avoid all this.

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All nuclear nations need to test their capabilities and their delivery systems to ensure their functionality. When did Israel last test

a nuke, underground or elsewhere? Never, is the resounding answer."Paper Tiger":

Thats incorrect. Even without tests performed Israel is able, and I´m sure about, to have nukes. The technologie is know by Isarels partners like the US+France and the Negev Nuclear Research Center facility is able to produce Plutonium.In addition, existing and so still tested delivery systems like cruise missile, bombs and short/midrange missile can be equiped with nuclear warheads plug&play. So nothing with "paper tiger" here.

Edited by toast

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Thats incorrect. Even without tests performed Israel is able, and I´m sure about, to have nukes. The technologie is know by Isarels partners like the US+France and the Negev Nuclear Research Center facility is able to produce Plutonium.In addition, existing and so still tested delivery systems like cruise missile, bombs and short/midrange missile can be equiped with nuclear warheads plug&play. So nothing with "paper tiger" here.

Yes... the technology IS known by the USA and France. The Negev Nuclear research Centre has been shut down (it is 40 years old). Israel was denied Tomahawk Cruise missiles by the USA, so all they have are Popeye 2 missiles. Capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, granted, but then so do all Middle East nations have this capability. At the end of the day it is about evidential statistics. IF Israel has developed a Fission or Fusion bomb then how do they know it will actually work?

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I'd like to get some large teams from the IAEA onto Golda's Balcony and all the rest of it, to go down to the basement bottom of their secret nuclear facilities and find out what's going on in there.

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Yes... the technology IS known by the USA and France. The Negev Nuclear research Centre has been shut down (it is 40 years old). Israel was denied Tomahawk Cruise missiles by the USA, so all they have are Popeye 2 missiles. Capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, granted, but then so do all Middle East nations have this capability. At the end of the day it is about evidential statistics. IF Israel has developed a Fission or Fusion bomb then how do they know it will actually work?

Yes, Nefev is shut down but that does not proof that Israel does not have Plutonium. If the constructional drawings for allready developed and tested nuclear warheads were provided by the US or France or whoever, no detonation tests are required.

Edited by toast

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I'd like to get some large teams from the IAEA onto Golda's Balcony and all the rest of it, to go down to the basement bottom of their secret nuclear facilities and find out what's going on in there.

Man don't you know IAEA will find nuke only in Iran,Syria etc.They will not find it in Israel

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Well since I'm so fascinating that I'm the topic of discussion once again, the difference between Yamato and a Zionist is, if what is being done to Palestinians today was being done to Israelis instead, I wouldn't change one word of what I think. I don't put up with that nonsense from anyone for one minute and the political/religious/historical dirt clods that people keep throwing at each other about this group and that group would remain irrelevant.

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The US department of national security recognises that Israel has a number of small nuclear warheads. A strong ally of a nation with such information is quite enough for me.

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Lies begats lies ... and so the carousel of death continues ... Faust would've been mighty proud ...

~

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Excuse me, can an actual Israeli join this discussion? :P

The whole point of Israel's nuclear ambiguity is that - ambiguity. No one knows exactly if Israel does indeed have nukes or not, and the countries that do know, cannot really publish the evidence as it will compromise the intelligence methods which they used to uncover the truth.

The subject itself is somewhat of a joke here in Israel, as Israelis believe that our country is indeed a nuclear "power", but because it's a big hush-hush we always start any discussion on the subject with the prelude "according to foreign sources..." sometimes while rolling our eyes.

In considering whether or not Israel has nukes, consider the following:

1. Israel was founded by Jews, mostly European Jews in its early life, and after it's creation many more European Jews fled from Europe to Israel. Many Jews in Europe had tremendous knowledge in physics and science. After all, most of the leading scientists in the Manhattan project were, erm, European Jews which only recently fled Europe to the West. So the scientific knowledge did exist in Israel at the time. To the degree that many sources that indicate that Israel has nukes, point to the French-Israeli collaboration in obtaining it (meaning both countries worked together to obtain nuclear weapons) - Israel provided scientific knowledge, while France provided the cash and engineering infrastructure.

2. As I was saying, France is usually pointed out as the financial source for the Israeli nuclear program, back when the country was poor. So we now have a source for both the knowledge and the finance.

3. Israel has developed vast launch capabilities, and is one of the only countries in the world capable of launching a satellite to orbit using home-grown ballistic missiles. Google Shavit Orbital Launcher. It's military variant is called Jericho.

4. Israel also has advanced, modern air-force armed with aircrafts thatt are capable of carrying out nuclear weapons in other countries that use them (ie USA uses the same aircrafts).

5. If we assume Israel does indeed have the bomb, and we believe the consensus chronology of it's development, then Israel has got nuclear weapons since mid-1960s, meaning it had the time to perfect these weapons to fit whatever means for carrying it on the platforms mentioned above.

Also, there are some indirect evidence suggesting Israel does indeed have nukes - it has Uranium Depleted Shells (the question is if it's homegrown or purchased from the United States), has strong connections with some Third World countries for no obvious reason until you check and see that these countries have Uranium mines; there are some direct hints such as the Va'anunu affair, the alleged joint nuclear experiment with SA (a confirmed ex-nuclear nation) back in 1979 known as the Vela incident, and some politicians with a slippery tongue including ex Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert.

If Israel does have nukes, and it's from the 1960s, then it has proven it's maturity more than any other nuclear capable country: Israel was involved in at least 5 wars (1967, 1973, 1982, 1991 and 2006), some of which involved much bigger countries invading it and threatening it with destruction, yet have never used it's nuclear arsenal (it has, perhaps, communicated through diplomatic channels that it will use it thus stopping those countries from continue their aggression. It is thought that Egypt and Syria didn't continue forward with their advances in 73' because of it, and that Saddam Hussein didn't fill the SCUD missiles he fired on Israel in the first Gulf War with chemical weapons for the same reasons).

Consider how frequently India,Pakistan, the US and the USSR have flexed their nuclear muscles, and even the French threatened to use it not too long ago shall al-Qaeda try a 9/11 on French soil if I'm not mistaken.

BTW - if Israel doesn't have nuclear weapons, and it's all a sham, it's the greatest single intelligence achievement of the 20th century, and should be studied in every single intelligence agency in the world :tu:

Edited by Erikl
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Although Erikl has already pointed this out, it's very likely that Israel has nuclear weapons although the number of them is less that 200 according to most sources. They've been enriching uranium at Dimona for decades and they have the necessary methods to deliver said warheads, through their Jericho missiles and whatever missiles the Dolphin-class submarines use. Israel's ambiguity is primarily so it doesn't encourage an arms race within the Middle East although countries like Saudi Arabia are more worried about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons than the Israelis even possessing them, mainly because, unlike Israel, Iran doesn't have the reigns of a large superpower like the US to hold them back from essentially turning the entire region into one giant glass bowl.

In any case, I am of the belief that Israel's nuclear program is probably one of the worst kept secrets in the world. I even believe that they have tested warheads before and fairly openly (see the Vela incident).

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Officially, Israel has no nuclear weapons.

In reality, most pundits believe that they acquired - and implemented - the technology in the 1960's. They can make the "no nukes" claim because the "physics package" (the actuall explosive warhead element) is seperated into sections and stored seperately, and (perhaps) not permanantly physically installed into the top of the rocket. Hence, they have NO fucntioning nuclear weapons. The package - however - COULD be assembled into a viable nuke very rapidly.

If you dismantle a gun into three or four (easily re-assembled) sections, do you still posess a gun ?

Put it this way... over the decades Israel has admitted (proudly announced, in fact, and publicly tested) to developing the Jericho range of long-range ballistic missiles, starting wtih the (now obsolete) Jericho I, and culminating in the Jericho-III, a missile with some slightly unusual features. The Jericho development program has cost several Billion dollars. This includes the development of the ultra-deep "nuclear survivable" launch silo's.

But even the Jericho-III only has a payload of 1000Kg or thereabouts. Big by arial bomb standards, but not THAT big. Would YOU spend ALL that money producing a missile that can only carry a 2000-lb conventional bomb ? Would you build silo's to protect the missile against a nuclear attack (almost as though the missile was intended in a retaliory "second strike" role) ? Would you go to the trouble of making both road and rail transporter-erector units so that the missiles could be dispersed from their Silo's and scattered around prior to launch ?

It makes no sense to do all of that just to launch some 2000-lb conventional bombs. It makes COMPLETE sense, however, if that 2000-lb was actually a multi-warhead MIRV atomic bomb.

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