A pattern in history...?

[ambelamba]

I am not sure if this is directly related to conspiracies. But I hope this becomes a meaningful discussion. Maybe it's just me, but does it seem like there's an actual pattern in history?

When things go really insane, then something devastating happens. When the madness reaches the critical mass, some destructive events happen...usually in a form of foreign invasion.

Rome was invaded by Huns during the height of debauchery. Medieval Europe was under the influence of fanaticism of the Church, then Mongols came. Both Aztec and Maya were crazy about human sacrifices and guess what, Spaniards came.

What about now?

[ambelamba]

I am not sure if this is directly related to conspiracies. But I hope this becomes a meaningful discussion. Maybe it's just me, but does it seem like there's an actual pattern in history?

When things go really insane, then something devastating happens. When the madness reaches the critical mass, some destructive events happen...usually in a form of foreign invasion.

Rome was invaded by Huns during the height of debauchery. Medieval Europe was under the influence of fanaticism of the Church, then Mongols came. Both Aztec and Maya were crazy about human sacrifices and guess what, Spaniards came.

What about now?

[Likely Guy]

You're right there Amba, this has nothing to do with conspiracies.

But you said, "When things go really insane, then something devastating happens." That's simply called 'cause and effect'. I wouldn't be amazed that one would see a pattern in that.

[Eldorado]

You're right there Amba, this has nothing to do with conspiracies.

But you said, "When things go really insane, then something devastating happens." That's simply called 'cause and effect'. I wouldn't be amazed that one would see a pattern in that.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

I think it's a case of debauched or corrupt societies falling because their focus has slipped off f defense from without to either oppression of within or apathy. Rome was invaded by the Goths because the Romans felt invincible.

[regeneratia]

I am not sure if this is directly related to conspiracies. But I hope this becomes a meaningful discussion. Maybe it's just me, but does it seem like there's an actual pattern in history?

When things go really insane, then something devastating happens. When the madness reaches the critical mass, some destructive events happen...usually in a form of foreign invasion.

Rome was invaded by Huns during the height of debauchery. Medieval Europe was under the influence of fanaticism of the Church, then Mongols came. Both Aztec and Maya were crazy about human sacrifices and guess what, Spaniards came.

What about now?

I think when a civilization's power structure begins to fail, that power structure will do outrageous things to hold on to it, even as they are failing. The more the governmental power structure fails, they more they will use extreme measures of repression and murder to mask that failure, in acts of desperation and "debauchery". Our governments are doing it now. But if they were enlightened and wise, acting with foresight, they would give more freedoms, not take the freedoms away. Thus they could maintain what power they have and later rebuild it.

If a government wants to survive when they are failing, they should give the people what they want, with gladness.

Acts of desperation and debauchery by governments, ancient and modern, is a sure fire indication that they are failing, that the government and their rule is failing.

Edited February 23, 2014 by regeneratia

[Likely Guy]

You're right there Amba, this has nothing to do with conspiracies.

But you said, "When things go really insane, then something devastating happens." That's simply called 'cause and effect'. I wouldn't be amazed that one would see a pattern in that.

Dude, that was way scary. It was like you were reading my thoughts!

[Hawken]

Yes history has shown that empires rise and fall. The same applies this modern age.

[Likely Guy]

Yes history has shown that empires rise and fall. The same applies this modern age.

[qxcontinuum]

it is called hegemony wars. The most powerful nation on earth will rule over all others, which will prevent conflicts between nations to exists. As long all the nations are kept under the belt of this big uncle humanity can focus on arts, science, social ...etc...Sooner a power looses its reins over everything, there will be tremendous periods of darkness and uncertainty until another one raise.

We can just be thankful to have now a democratic powerful nation to rule the world. I don't think i want to live in one with a different political or social agenda.

Edited February 23, 2014 by qxcontinuum

[ambelamba]

Probably the way to connect this to conspiracy theory is this. How will the true powers that be react they face the nasty surprise that even they couldn't even imagine?

[Nighthawk9653]

This is a wayyyy out there idea, but..

I think things work circles or cycles. So it would be how you said: "things go really insane, then something devastating happens. When the madness reaches the critical mass, some destructive events happen...usually in a form of foreign invasion."

It's kind of like.. If you imagined the lifecycle of a civilization. It's a baby, it grows, it reproduces, it dies, but for a civilization, it could be what you said above. It starts off good, things go insane, devastation, madness, destruction, invasion, and then it begins again.

Plus if you add in the 'History repeats itself' thing...

Anyways, it's a crazy theory, and who knows if it continues to work that way. If that is the way it works, in cycles, then we may be destined to make the same mistakes they did and end up just like them.

Awesome topic

Edited February 23, 2014 by Nighthawk9653

[seaturtlehorsesnake]

i don't think it's the pattern that you're making. rome was invaded by many more groups than just the huns, but the huns arrived at a time when the roman state was crumbling*. it's not that invasions are caused by crises, it's that external invasions are far more likely to be succesful if they happen when there's a crises. i hope this makes sense, i'm exhausted. i do think it's a very interesting topic.

the mongols crushed any number of states throughout asia and europe. i don't think it had anything to do with the fanaticism of the church, i mean, they defeated china, they defeated islamic states, and they defeated both orthodox and catholic christians. they were just very, very good soldiers.

*(and let's not forget that the eastern half of the empire, which could be pretty damn decadent, survived the hunnic invasion just fine.)

[MissJatti]

Yin and Yang, good and bad, good the height of civilization, bad the demise of that civilization

[Space Commander Travis]

Are you expecting the ETs to invade again?

[Space Commander Travis]

I think it's a case of debauched or corrupt societies falling because their focus has slipped off f defense from without to either oppression of within or apathy. Rome was invaded by the Goths because the Romans felt invincible.

yes, quite simple, if a society or nation is becoming corrupt or debauched, they're not going to be in a very fit state to defend themselves. Like France in 1940. The corruption or debauchery may provoke an opportunistic invasion, if the invader is close enough and has good enough intelligence to know that their foe would be weak, but that was hardly the case with the Mayans and Aztecs and the Spanish, who just came blundering along in search of gold and with technological superiority.

[spud the mackem]

The Pakistani's have invaded Britain

The Turks have invaded Germany

The Mexicans have invaded the U.S.A.

The Chinese invaded Mongolia

and Argentina surrendered

[dr no]

The Pakistani's have invaded Britain

The Turks have invaded Germany

The Mexicans have invaded the U.S.A.

The Chinese invaded Mongolia

and Argentina surrendered

Invaded????

[Peter B]

I am not sure if this is directly related to conspiracies. But I hope this becomes a meaningful discussion. Maybe it's just me, but does it seem like there's an actual pattern in history?

When things go really insane, then something devastating happens. When the madness reaches the critical mass, some destructive events happen...usually in a form of foreign invasion.

Rome was invaded by Huns during the height of debauchery. Medieval Europe was under the influence of fanaticism of the Church, then Mongols came. Both Aztec and Maya were crazy about human sacrifices and guess what, Spaniards came.

What about now?

While superficially your idea is attractive, once you look in detail at the history things don't quite add up.

Events that seem to be similar generally have different contributing factors and different outcomes.

Yes, the Huns invaded the Roman Empire. But not at the time of the Empire's "height of debauchery". The Huns invaded in the mid-5th century, at a time when the Roman Empire had been officially Christian for over a century. In fact, even the barbarians who were in the process of overrunning the Western Roman Empire had been converted to Christianity. In any case the Huns didn't conquer the Roman Empire; instead the Western Empire was conquered by various Germanic tribes - the Franks, the Vandals, the Saxons, the Suevi, the Burgundi, and so on, while (as Seaturtlehorsesnake pointed out) the Eastern Empire survived virtually intact.

The Western Empire fell because it didn't have enough people to raise enough tax to pay for enough soldiers to hold off the barbarians. In Roman society the maximum sustainable size of the army was about 1% of the population. So with a population of perhaps 10 million people, it really couldn't support an army larger than about 100,000 men. By contrast every adult male in the barbarian tribes was a soldier, even if not as good a soldier as a Roman soldier. As each tribe consisted of about 100,000 people, that meant each could provide an army of about 20,000 to 25,000 men. This meant it only took half a dozen or so tribes to amass more soldiers than the Western Empire.

By contrast the Eastern Empire had a higher population which was also more urbanised (and thus easier to tax). It also had a shorter border to defend, and its most valuable lands (Syria and Egypt) were well away from the main threat. Barbarian tribes could ravage the Balkans endlessly, but they couldn't reach the rest of the Empire.

Yes, Medieval Europe was under the influence of the church, and then the Mongols came. But the power of the church existed both before and after the coming of the Mongols. In any case the effect of the Mongols was felt most acutely in eastern Europe, by places such as Hungary, Poland and Russia; by contrast western Europe was untouched by the Mongols. Plus, you missed that Europe had been ravaged in previous centuries by Avars, Vikings, Arabs and Hungarians, and would face conquest in the 16th and 17th centuries by the Ottoman Turks. In the end the power of the church would be challenged by other Europeans - the Protestant Reformation, some of whose members were as fanatical as some members of the Catholic church had ever been.

As for the Maya and the Aztecs, their fates were quite different. At the time of the Spanish arrival, the Maya were divided into many small states while the Aztecs were the leading power in their region with many vassals. The Maya were gradually conquered over a few decades, with several major revolts, while the Aztecs were destroyed in the space of a few years.

It's also worth noting that Spanish troops represented only a tiny fraction of the forces which were involved in the conquest of Tenochtitlan. The largest contributor of troops to the siege was the neighbouring kingdom of Tlaxcala, a longtime enemy of the Aztecs. Many other minor kingdoms provided either soldiers or labourers. It's worth thinking about how they viewed their place in the defeat of the Aztecs.

Finally (with apologies for the length of the post), consider the history of China. Yes, a united kingdom of China was created and destroyed many times over, but the circumstances of each dynasty's rise and fall were unique. The Han Dynasty fell at the end of the 2nd century due to purely internal factors, to be followed by 400 years of disunity. By contrast the Sung Dynasty fell to conquest by the Mongols in the late 13th century, with the Mongols immediately creating their own Yuan Dynasty. The Yuan then collapsed under the weight of several massive internal revolts, one of which led to the creation of the Ming Dynasty.

In conclusion, therefore, if you think you see a pattern between different events, look at those events in greater detail to see exactly what their circumstances are. In my opinion it's fairly likely very different factors were in play.

[Babe Ruth]

Probably the way to connect this to conspiracy theory is this. How will the true powers that be react they face the nasty surprise that even they couldn't even imagine?

But...but...but humans don't conspire I thought...

[ambelamba]

Are you expecting the ETs to invade again?

Sigh...yeah...So what? There are crazier folks out in the place where I usually work...*cough*Scientologists*cough*

[darkmoonlady]

Way too many outside factors come into play to say there is a predictable pattern other than possible climate changes. At various times weather, disease vectors, sunspots, volcanic eruptions, population shifts, as well as political reasons and resource shortages have all been contributing factors to the rise and fall of major civilizations. I don't think any one single causal relationship could be pinpointed that overrides all the others to form any sort of pattern or cycle.

[DONTEATUS]

Still waiting for Exhibit-A Come on Hazzard your slippin !

[spud the mackem]

Invaded????

2 foreign gentlemen were stopped by a Police patrol boat in the River Thames at London Bridge, Hoy what are you up to they asked, Oh we are asylum seekers....Well you are the first to do it this way....No we aren't we are the last, the other million came up last month.......Yes mate INVADED.

[seaturtlehorsesnake]

what in any world that exists does that have to do withthe topic though?