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and then

How likely is Ukraine to cause a world war?

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I realize there are far more differences than similarities between the histories of these two events but I have become increasingly more uneasy about how this could play out. WWI began after a series of miscalculations. Putin has had a spectacular run of diplomatic success in the past couple of years - he is very confident - perhaps too much so. Obama has stumbled and bumbled regularly and given the impression of some Barney Fife in the president's chair. If this gets down to sanctions vs counter sanctions the tensions could rise to a point where things get out of control. I don't mind admitting to being a bit nervous.

Thoughts?c

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I can't see it being the match that sparks a war, perhaps a future history will call it a stepping stone, a "first step on the road to war", but not the root cause.

However, sanctions may cause havoc, the Russians control the gas pipelines to Europe. If the EU slaps sanctions on Russia, Russia is very likely to respond in kind, and Russia's big enough and ugly enough to survive ignoring the sanctions the EU imposes but Russian sanctions could hurt the EU.

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I realize there are far more differences than similarities between the histories of these two events but I have become increasingly more uneasy about how this could play out. WWI began after a series of miscalculations. Putin has had a spectacular run of diplomatic success in the past couple of years - he is very confident - perhaps too much so. Obama has stumbled and bumbled regularly and given the impression of some Barney Fife in the president's chair. If this gets down to sanctions vs counter sanctions the tensions could rise to a point where things get out of control. I don't mind admitting to being a bit nervous.

Thoughts?c

Yeah... you put too much stock in the holy bible. Take it from there.

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Yeah... you put too much stock in the holy bible. Take it from there.

Possibly. But this really isn't mentioned in the bible AFAIK. I worry more about plain old stupidity and ego between world leaders. Putin is on a roll and I think he could push too far - simple as that.
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You do realize the individual's running Israel are Russian? Russian jews.

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Haha.... you have no idea and either do I..... we know nothing but what we're told.

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Occasionally - not often - but occasionally I do put out opinions that have nothing to do with Israel :) This Ukraine issue is one of those times. I just have a feeling of unease that incrementally we are moving toward a conflict that could explode in our faces. I have no idea if Putin is Jewish but I am aware that many in the western part of Ukraine are historically anti semitic. This conflict isn't about those issues as far as I can judge - just raw power and ego.

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Ex KGB leader Putin has put a foot over the "red line" and is daring the West to up the ante,he is probably waiting for a reaction from the West before he decides to move into other ex Russian states.Another cold war is beginning,so lets hope that the Western Politicians dont go in on a war footing which no one can win.

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Posted (edited)

Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.

Edited by stevewinn
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Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.

That is what worries me. Once the shooting begins many things can happen and most of them are negative. I doubt NATO would get involved but if they do then the world could be in for some serious trouble.
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Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.

The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".

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Posted (edited)

The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".

January 1st 2013 census: 45,553,000 people.

That's 45 and half million people.

Maybe you thought of Crimea alone, that indeed has roughly 2 and half million.

A little less than that, but if we count the staff and civil employees of Russian naval base and Russian invasion forces then it’s closer to 2 and half :lol:

Edited by Helen of Annoy
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The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".

Spud I think you are correct about the Russian army being a superior fighting force. But I also know what a determined group of p***ed off people can do in an insurgency. Putin's ego is writing checks the Russian army won't be able to cash long term. Tomorrow when the referendum is voted and Crimea secedes, Ukraine has said they will cut all electricity and water services. Apparently this infrastructure is localized to one small area - like an umbilical cord you might say. Russia isn't going to want to have to deal with such a crisis so they will probably descend on that area immediately and I suspect if shooting is going to begin it will begin there.
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Spud I think you are correct about the Russian army being a superior fighting force. But I also know what a determined group of p***ed off people can do in an insurgency. Putin's ego is writing checks the Russian army won't be able to cash long term. Tomorrow when the referendum is voted and Crimea secedes, Ukraine has said they will cut all electricity and water services. Apparently this infrastructure is localized to one small area - like an umbilical cord you might say. Russia isn't going to want to have to deal with such a crisis so they will probably descend on that area immediately and I suspect if shooting is going to begin it will begin there.

Im concerned about something similar. The rest of the world hasn't done anything militarily to stop whats happening in Crimea, so Putin knows that the chances of them using force against Russia if he enters the rest of Ukraine is pretty slim. If Crimea votes to become part of Russia, and the Ukraine cuts all electricity and water services, that might be justification enough for Putin to enter the east and restore those services.

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Posted (edited)

Let's just hope that China and Russia never become military allies. They could do some very serious damage to the rest of the world and have the Western Hemisphere completely isolated. Russia rolls into Europe, and china takes out japan and Australia, while the cash strapped USA tries to figure out where to get money from to pay for the war. Iran then disrupts the Middle East and blocks the strait of Hormuz. Think about this, it's out there, but a possibility. Russia and china wait for winter and roll into North America, when the Bering strait freezes over, invading North America for the first time ever without having to be restricted to using ships and airplanes. Crazy, I know, but I wouldn't say impossible.

The USA would basically have to help fight a war on 3 fronts, with a downsized military and no money left.

Edited by andy4
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Posted (edited)

Let's just hope that China and Russia never become military allies. They could do some very serious damage to the rest of the world and have the Western Hemisphere completely isolated. Russia rolls into Europe, and china takes out japan and Australia, while the cash strapped USA tries to figure out where to get money from to pay for the war. Iran then disrupts the Middle East and blocks the strait of Hormuz. Think about this, it's out there, but a possibility. Russia and china wait for winter and roll into North America, when the Bering strait freezes over, invading North America for the first time ever without having to be restricted to using ships and airplanes. Crazy, I know, but I wouldn't say impossible.

The USA would basically have to help fight a war on 3 fronts, with a downsized military and no money left.

Mmmm-naw, can't see China & Russia trying to invade North America. That would be a big mistake on their part. Most of our citizens are armed, there's one problem for them. Then you got the military might of both the Canadian and U.S. to contend with, that's another problem for them. To much trouble for them, IMO.

But the rest of your speculation sounds like a real possibility, though.

Edit: Except for Australia, don't see that either.

Edited by Purifier

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Let's just hope that China and Russia never become military allies. They could do some very serious damage to the rest of the world and have the Western Hemisphere completely isolated. Russia rolls into Europe, and china takes out japan and Australia, while the cash strapped USA tries to figure out where to get money from to pay for the war. Iran then disrupts the Middle East and blocks the strait of Hormuz. Think about this, it's out there, but a possibility. Russia and china wait for winter and roll into North America, when the Bering strait freezes over, invading North America for the first time ever without having to be restricted to using ships and airplanes. Crazy, I know, but I wouldn't say impossible.

The USA would basically have to help fight a war on 3 fronts, with a downsized military and no money left.

at this stage anything is possible, but is there a direct link between the USA pulling its heavy Armour out of Germany in 2013 and the UK withdrawing thousands of its own armoured division soldiers and equipment out of Germany and be fully withdrawn by 2020. couple this with a continuing reduction in military spending year on year by NATO members, the signals are clear and Russia as received them loud and clear. they first tried a test run in Georgia 2008 the response by the west was weak then, then look at the Syrian situation, and now Ukraine. all four events have emboldened Russia and they got it right.

we go to the other side of the world, the Asia-Pacific region is slowly drifting to war. in a bid to stop Japan expanding its military the USA have confirmed they're committed to defending Japan. With the USA committing 60% of it military assets to the region by 2018 - its left holes all over the place especially in the Atlantic - European region where no-one wants to take responsibility. the USA have been banging the drum for at least the last two decades about dwindling spending on military by NATO members.The USA is spread so thin dealing with its own military cuts its very possible Pax Americana is coming to an end and the checks and measures which held the Great Powers in balance is shifting. its very plausible any conflict in Europe (Ukraine) will see movement in Asia-Pacific with China moving on the disputed Islands in the south China sea against Japan. this might not lead to full all out conflicts but at some point a line will be crossed, it all depends where we decide to draw the line.

what worries me is the United Nations and how ineffective its become.

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Posted (edited)

Russian troops have seized a natural gas station at the junction where Crimea and Ukraine join. I expected this to happen after the referendum but the Ukrainians may have been setting up a surprise..

The incursion is actually inside Ukraine in the Kherson region.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579441200573049792?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304914904579441200573049792.html

Edited by and then

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Russian troops have seized a natural gas station at the junction where Crimea and Ukraine join. I expected this to happen after the referendum but the Ukrainians may have been setting up a surprise..

The incursion is actually inside Ukraine in the Kherson region.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579441200573049792?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304914904579441200573049792.html

Could this be the catalyst? Anyone?

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Could this be the catalyst? Anyone?

If they do not strike soon they probably won't imo. The one bit of leverage they seem to have had was the ability to cut off services. If they do not fight for that or to sabotage them then they may be unlikely to fight at all. Hard to tell, but I will be very surprised if they don't at least attempt a defense.

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I seen and understood how wars start, what countries fall due to unique outside view of events happening in the world. But this one has caught me by surprise, Russia pulling something like this is an variable that didn't occur to me. Will Putin be crazy enough to start an war? I don't know... but he done cross the line leading to isolation.

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