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Phaeton80

Arabs Beware the Small States Option

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Posted (edited)

Arabs Beware the Small States Option

At the heart of all politics lies cold, hard opportunism. New circumstances, changed alliances and unexpected events will always conspire to alter one’s calculations to benefit a core agenda. In the Middle East today, those calculations are being adjusted with a frequency unseen for decades. In Egypt and Syria, for instance, popular sentiment is genuinely divided on where alliances and interests lie. Half of Egyptians seem convinced that deposed President Muhammad Morsi is the resident US-Israeli stooge, while the other half believe it is Egypt’s military that is carrying out those foreign agendas.

In Syria the same can be said for Syrians conflicted on whether President Bashar al-Assad or the external-based Syrian National Council (SNC) most benefits Israeli and American hegemonic interests in the region. But Egyptians and Syrians, who point alternating fingers at Islamists or the state as being tools of imperialism, have this wrong: Empire is opportunistic. It has ways to benefit from both. There is another vastly more destructive scenario being missed while Arabs busy themselves with conspiracies and speculative minutiae: A third option far more damaging to all.

Balkanization of Key Mideast States

At a June 19 event at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger touched upon an alarming new refrain in western discourse on Mideast outcomes; a third strategy, if all else fails, of redrawn borders along sectarian, ethnic, tribal or national lines that will shrink the political/military reach of key Arab states and enable the west to reassert its rapidly-diminishing control over the region. Says Kissinger about two such nations:

“There are three possible outcomes (in Syria). An Assad victory. A Sunni victory. Or an outcome in which the various nationalities agree to co-exist together but in more or less autonomous regions, so that they can’t oppress each other. That’s the outcome I would prefer to see. But that’s not the popular view…First of all, Syria is not a historic state. It was created in its present shape in 1920, and it was given that shape in order to facilitate the control of the country by France, which happened to be after UN mandate…The neighboring country Iraq was also given an odd shape, that was to facilitate control by England. And the shape of both of the countries was designed to make it hard for either of them to dominate the region.”

http://wikispooks.co...l_States_Option

Edited by Phaeton80
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So a group of smaller, less powerful Arab states divided according to religious preference and potentially more peaceful - at least with each other - is a bad thing? Actually I think we are seeing the beginning of a regional showdown between those sects and it's going to be bloody as hell. If they fight to a draw they will probably revert to form and ally with each other to come against Israel. If one group becomes dominant they'll probably come against Israel - starting to see a pattern? While I have not yet decided which scenario is more likely there are many Christian eschatologists who believe that a consortium of Arab Muslim states will come against Israel and be dealt a horrible defeat. Looks like we might see it sooner rather than later.

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Balkanization of Key Mideast States

Right off the bat... what is a "key" ME state??

One that the US wants to dominate and rule?

the same crap thinking that reshaped those countries and Greater Kurdland and Palestine, that's the only way they look at it, and god forbid!- they lose control of someone else's land!!!

warmongering blowhards

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Posted (edited)

So a group of smaller, less powerful Arab states divided according to religious preference and potentially more peaceful - at least with each other - is a bad thing? Actually I think we are seeing the beginning of a regional showdown between those sects and it's going to be bloody as hell. If they fight to a draw they will probably revert to form and ally with each other to come against Israel. If one group becomes dominant they'll probably come against Israel - starting to see a pattern? While I have not yet decided which scenario is more likely there are many Christian eschatologists who believe that a consortium of Arab Muslim states will come against Israel and be dealt a horrible defeat. Looks like we might see it sooner rather than later.

Well sir, maybe we should consider a similar strategy regarding the USA? They might just be more peaceful - at least towards others. A decade without an American invasion of a sovereign nation would be rather refreshing, wouldnt it. And Im quite sure the Evangelicals, Catholics, Protestants, Theosophists, Satanists, Scientoligists and even Atheists would all love to claim their own piece of land.

I think its obvious the region has been destabilized consciously, and now 'we' are supposed to applaud the cutting up of these (former) sovereign States - to make it 'more stable', safe (which you are apparantly obliging with due vigor). All in direct and unequivocal favor of political entities like say.. Israel/USA? But surely, this is sheer coincidence. I mean, lets not tolerate any outrageous conspiracy theories here.

Global Research Editor’s Note

The following document pertaining to the formation of “Greater Israel” constitutes the cornerstone of powerful Zionist factions within the current Netanyahu government, the Likud party, as well as within the Israeli military and intelligence establishment.

According to the founding father of Zionism Theodore Herzl, “the area of the Jewish State stretches: “From the Brook of Egypt to the Euphrates.” According to Rabbi Fischmann, “The Promised Land extends from the River of Egypt up to the Euphrates, it includes parts of Syria and Lebanon.”

When viewed in the current context, the war on Iraq, the 2006 war on Lebanon, the 2011 war on Libya, the ongoing war on Syria, not to mention the process of regime change in Egypt, must be understood in relation to the Zionist Plan for the Middle East. The latter consists in weakening and eventually fracturing neighboring Arab states as part of an Israeli expansionist project.

“Greater Israel” consists in an area extending from the Nile Valley to the Euphrates.

The Zionist project supports the Jewish settlement movement. More broadly it involves a policy of excluding Palestinians from Palestine leading to the eventual annexation of both the West Bank and Gaza to the State of Israel.

Greater Israel would create a number of proxy States. It would include parts of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, the Sinai, as well as parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Greater+Israel.jpg

“[The Yinon plan] is an Israeli strategic plan to ensure Israeli regional superiority. It insists and stipulates that Israel must reconfigure its geo-political environment through the balkanization of the surrounding Arab states into smaller and weaker states.

Israeli strategists viewed Iraq as their biggest strategic challenge from an Arab state. This is why Iraq was outlined as the centerpiece to the balkanization of the Middle East and the Arab World. In Iraq, on the basis of the concepts of the Yinon Plan, Israeli strategists have called for the division of Iraq into a Kurdish state and two Arab states, one for Shiite Muslims and the other for Sunni Muslims. The first step towards establishing this was a war between Iraq and Iran, which the Yinon Plan discusses.

The Atlantic, in 2008, and the U.S. military’s Armed Forces Journal, in 2006, both published widely circulated maps that closely followed the outline of the Yinon Plan. Aside from a divided Iraq, which the Biden Plan also calls for, the Yinon Plan calls for a divided Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria. The partitioning of Iran, Turkey, Somalia, and Pakistan also all fall into line with these views. The Yinon Plan also calls for dissolution in North Africa and forecasts it as starting from Egypt and then spilling over into Sudan, Libya, and the rest of the region.

http://www.globalres...le-east/5324815

Edited by Phaeton80
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Well sir, maybe we should consider a similar strategy regarding the USA? They might just be more peaceful - at least towards others. A decade without an American invasion of a sovereign nation would be rather refreshing, wouldnt it. And Im quite sure the Evangelicals, Catholics, Protestants, Theosophists, Satanists, Scientoligists and even Atheists would all love to claim their own piece of land.

I think its obvious the region has been destabilized consciously, and now 'we' are supposed to applaud the cutting up of these (former) sovereign States - to make it 'more stable', safe (which you are apparantly obliging with due vigor). All in direct and unequivocal favor of political entities like say.. Israel/USA? But surely, this is sheer coincidence. I mean, lets not tolerate any outrageous conspiracy theories here.

What is going on there is not going to benefit Israel OR the US or whatever safe little village you call home. Stirring a pot over who's to blame is a fun pastime for some but the pot is getting ready to boil over and who lit the fire is soon going to be a secondary concern. Be safe now, y'hear? :)
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What is going on there is not going to benefit Israel OR the US or whatever safe little village you call home. Stirring a pot over who's to blame is a fun pastime for some but the pot is getting ready to boil over and who lit the fire is soon going to be a secondary concern. Be safe now, y'hear? :)

I think youre missing the bigger picture.

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I would just like to drop the following here.

I fully expect those that are called 'ISIS / ISIL' to be involved in a new (false flag) event taking place in either the USA, Israel or the EU. One that will probably dwarf those before it (nuclear, chemical).

This synthesized group will perpetuate / facilitate the 'War on Terror' for decades to come, and its crimes will grant Israel and the US with the geo political aspirations as described in post #1&4.

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I admit that what you propose may be a possibility. But why is it that you cannot countenance the idea that these guys simply are what they say they are? Why MUST they be some secret conspiracy of the west? For my part I am interested in protecting my freedoms more so than my life from this point forward. Screw the nanny state and the patriot act dogma.

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I admit that what you propose may be a possibility. But why is it that you cannot countenance the idea that these guys simply are what they say they are? Why MUST they be some secret conspiracy of the west? For my part I am interested in protecting my freedoms more so than my life from this point forward. Screw the nanny state and the patriot act dogma.

Because all the variables fit. Let me ask you this; what do you know about Wahhabism / Salafism?

Also, if you are so concerned with your 'freedoms' (rightly so), it might be wise to refocus your attention to certain domestic entities. Yet ofcourse, it should be fully expected this will be categorically disregarded as being 'conspiratorial bs' by individuals alike yourself.

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Posted (edited)

Dividing the arab world and creating small groups to make chaos is the west and usa aim. Because USA and the west knew that Israel will not survive if those lands of arabs are united.

The history of these countries united shows a lot of power and dominancy over every thing and one Islam is only make these countries more stronger.

So USA will fuel this region by distablizing it and creating a problem between shia and sunna, so that it can control that this place will make it impossible for these countries to get united .

But what USA is making is only speeding the process without being aware of the bad consequences, a large population of Muslims and arabs hate USA and Israel and the west ( governements and the people ).

Edited by TheLionsHunter
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So a group of smaller, less powerful Arab states divided according to religious preference and potentially more peaceful - at least with each other - is a bad thing? Actually I think we are seeing the beginning of a regional showdown between those sects and it's going to be bloody as hell. If they fight to a draw they will probably revert to form and ally with each other to come against Israel. If one group becomes dominant they'll probably come against Israel - starting to see a pattern? While I have not yet decided which scenario is more likely there are many Christian eschatologists who believe that a consortium of Arab Muslim states will come against Israel and be dealt a horrible defeat. Looks like we might see it sooner rather than later.

It's been bloody as hell. The US media has been out to lunch at showing just what failed states Iraq and Afghanistan are. We don't care. At all.

What the hell is so bloody important about these stupid groups and groupthink mentality and a chopped up apartheid world living in segregated clusters? Why does religion get a hall pass where such a stupid idea is posited? If the Middle East was homogenized so much that you can't even tell who's what anymore, there couldn't be any war. When you divide everyone up on their differences, you're not going to get peace. You're going to set the table for war and hatred and the daily Zionist spew that you endlessly remind everyone of.

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Posted (edited)

I would just like to drop the following here.

I fully expect those that are called 'ISIS / ISIL' to be involved in a new (false flag) event taking place in either the USA, Israel or the EU. One that will probably dwarf those before it (nuclear, chemical).

This synthesized group will perpetuate / facilitate the 'War on Terror' for decades to come, and its crimes will grant Israel and the US with the geo political aspirations as described in post #1&4.

No false flag, no "L" in ISIS. Surely the rebels refer to the Levant but that is covered the the "S" (al-Sham), which can stand for Syria, Damascus, or the Levant, depending on connotation. It is clear the rebels fighters who named their group are using the "Levant" meaning of al-Sham, because they say so, so that is all one really needs to know.

EDIT: Sorry, I misread this post. other than the "L", I pretty much agree with you, yes they will likely get blamed in a false-flag op

Edited by Earl.Of.Trumps
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Dividing the arab world and creating small groups to make chaos is the west and usa aim. Because USA and the west knew that Israel will not survive if those lands of arabs are united.

The history of these countries united shows a lot of power and dominancy over every thing and one Islam is only make these countries more stronger.

So USA will fuel this region by distablizing it and creating a problem between shia and sunna, so that it can control that this place will make it impossible for these countries to get united .

But what USA is making is only speeding the process without being aware of the bad consequences, a large population of Muslims and arabs hate USA and Israel and the west ( governements and the people ).

TheLionsHunter, I truly believe that once the dust settles in the region, all of the Caliphites and Islamic theocracies of the regoin will always have the common bond of the mortal enemy, Israel.

Whether the land large or small, they will all fight together against Israel

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Dividing the arab world and creating small groups to make chaos is the west and usa aim. Because USA and the west knew that Israel will not survive if those lands of arabs are united.

The history of these countries united shows a lot of power and dominancy over every thing and one Islam is only make these countries more stronger.

So USA will fuel this region by distablizing it and creating a problem between shia and sunna, so that it can control that this place will make it impossible for these countries to get united .

But what USA is making is only speeding the process without being aware of the bad consequences, a large population of Muslims and arabs hate USA and Israel and the west ( governements and the people ).

Lion hunter what you say could be true - I don't know. But what any fool should be able to see is that if Israel gets pushed into a place by her enemies where there is no way she can escape and will be destroyed, do you honestly believe the state will not keep it's promise? NEVER AGAIN means not that they will never be marched off to destruction - it means they will never again go ALONE to the ovens.

TheLionsHunter, I truly believe that once the dust settles in the region, all of the Caliphites and Islamic theocracies of the regoin will always have the common bond of the mortal enemy, Israel.

Whether the land large or small, they will all fight together against Israel

The first thing you've ever said that I completely agree with. See the above...

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TheLionsHunter, I truly believe that once the dust settles in the region, all of the Caliphites and Islamic theocracies of the regoin will always have the common bond of the mortal enemy, Israel.

Whether the land large or small, they will all fight together against Israel

No, you are wrong, you don't know how things work there, it must be only one sect, now there are lot of sects and every one of them claiming that it is the chosen one to ride the holy war. Sunni is the majority and they believe that fighting shia is better than fighting Israel, the same thing for shia which the second large sect, they believe that fighting sunna is better than fighting Israel. So keeping that subject this way will allow Israel to survive longer . And both of the sects are well aware that their big enemy is Isarel, when they wake up from this fantasy, then I will say that Israel will cease to exist in one day .

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Lion hunter what you say could be true - I don't know. But what any fool should be able to see is that if Israel gets pushed into a place by her enemies where there is no way she can escape and will be destroyed, do you honestly believe the state will not keep it's promise? NEVER AGAIN means not that they will never be marched off to destruction - it means they will never again go ALONE to the ovens. The first thing you've ever said that I completely agree with. See the above...

Israel is only a matter of time, saudi arabia and Jordan and the other countries in middle east and north of africa are just controlling the scholars and send them to prison if they say anything about the hate over USA and Israel. But the population of these countries knew a growth of hatred and revenge over their leaders and over USA and Israel, if any brave scholars gathered and call for a holy war, be sure that you will find 20 million people from only Egypt are ready to explode over all the foreign soldiers in middle east and Israel will just vanish.

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Israel is only a matter of time, saudi arabia and Jordan and the other countries in middle east and north of africa are just controlling the scholars and send them to prison if they say anything about the hate over USA and Israel. But the population of these countries knew a growth of hatred and revenge over their leaders and over USA and Israel, if any brave scholars gathered and call for a holy war, be sure that you will find 20 million people from only Egypt are ready to explode over all the foreign soldiers in middle east and Israel will just vanish.

I hear this and I accept that it is a true belief. What you are not hearing is that in destroying the hated enemy you will be tearing down your own homes as well - and possibly even the rest of the planet. There seems to be some magical thinking going on here - and according to many at UM I am the best at magical thinking ;) Seriously though, what do you expect Israel to do if such millions were to rise to her destruction? Do you think the nation would be caught off guard, not see them assembling to attack? Do you believe that they would not use the many horrific weapons they possess? And when (not if) they used nuclear weapons against such a mass of people what would you expect the world to do? I do not impugn your faith but do you expect Allah to protect and give these forces victory when it has never happened before?

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I hear this and I accept that it is a true belief. What you are not hearing is that in destroying the hated enemy you will be tearing down your own homes as well - and possibly even the rest of the planet. There seems to be some magical thinking going on here - and according to many at UM I am the best at magical thinking ;) Seriously though, what do you expect Israel to do if such millions were to rise to her destruction? Do you think the nation would be caught off guard, not see them assembling to attack? Do you believe that they would not use the many horrific weapons they possess? And when (not if) they used nuclear weapons against such a mass of people what would you expect the world to do? I do not impugn your faith but do you expect Allah to protect and give these forces victory when it has never happened before?

To kill people in Mass, you need a meteor and not a nuclear bomb. Anyway Israel will not dare to use nuclear bomb, because Pakistan has nuclear bombs too and so does india ( 260 million muslims in india).

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I hear this and I accept that it is a true belief. What you are not hearing is that in destroying the hated enemy you will be tearing down your own homes as well - and possibly even the rest of the planet. There seems to be some magical thinking going on here - and according to many at UM I am the best at magical thinking ;) Seriously though, what do you expect Israel to do if such millions were to rise to her destruction? Do you think the nation would be caught off guard, not see them assembling to attack? Do you believe that they would not use the many horrific weapons they possess? And when (not if) they used nuclear weapons against such a mass of people what would you expect the world to do? I do not impugn your faith but do you expect Allah to protect and give these forces victory when it has never happened before?

Israel can handle itself like everyone knows, so let's change the policy.

There's more crap reasons to kill over than we can count. Killing over what we "believe" is the crux of the whole damn problem.

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Israel is only a matter of time, saudi arabia and Jordan and the other countries in middle east and north of africa are just controlling the scholars and send them to prison if they say anything about the hate over USA and Israel. But the population of these countries knew a growth of hatred and revenge over their leaders and over USA and Israel, if any brave scholars gathered and call for a holy war, be sure that you will find 20 million people from only Egypt are ready to explode over all the foreign soldiers in middle east and Israel will just vanish.

Someone might need to tell the 20 million people from Egypt that wars these days aren't fought with scimitars and camels. They would be risking total annihilation. People in the middle east need to be educated and stop believing in holy wars. Full stop.

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To kill people in Mass, you need a meteor and not a nuclear bomb. Anyway Israel will not dare to use nuclear bomb, because Pakistan has nuclear bombs too and so does india ( 260 million muslims in india).

See - this is my point about the disconnect I see. Respectfully, Lion Hunter - if the Israelis see a massive army of annihilation coming for them AND THEIR CHILDREN - why do you think they would fear a Muslim bomb? Dead is dead, no? My point, again, is not that they could never be annihilated. My point is that they have the power (The Samson Option) to pull down their enemies as they are destroyed. What is it that makes you think they would just go meekly?

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Returning to the opening post article: Arabs beware small state solutions'.

Yes, a group of small states is easier to manipulate - or even intimidate - than a single large one.

The problem is that - historically - Arabs have been unable to form large states. Arab politics has always been heavily influenced by tribal loyalties. This philosophy does not scale up. Without more sophisticated forms of governance, and without a populace with loyalty to the concept of a Nation, a large state cannot be stable. Look at the breakup of Iraq as an example; once the dictator fell, the "nation" disintegrated.

No nation in the Arabian Penninsula has a population greater than 30 million.

Egypt's is 80 million, but Egypt was heavily exposed to western philosophy for hundreds of years, as a consequence of the Suez Canal.

Iran's is around 70 million, but Persian Iran has always held itself separate from the Arabian Peninsula, and does not classify itself as Arabic.

Even the cohesion of Islam has failed to overcome Tribalism, and as a consequence Arab nations are doomed to stay small.

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Posted (edited)

And as it stands right now, they are 'doomed' to get even smaller.. Which is the central point of this thread.

In addition, I agree the Arabs are no cohesive group by any measure, and generally lack organisation skills. However, implying this is the sole reason for the present state of affairs in this context is a bit one- dimensional imo.

We should not forget the region was divided up by the British after WWI, checks & balances (borders unilaterally decided, 'friendly' rulers in place etc) were set up to consolidate control for the remaining part of the century. The creation known as Saudi Arabia, ruled by the House of Saud (Seven Sisters), has played an especially negative role in that sense for all Im concerned. Acting like a pivot to which the status quo could (easily) be maintained.

Edited by Phaeton80
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And as it stands right now, they are 'doomed' to get even smaller.. Which is the central point of this thread.

In addition, I agree the Arabs are no cohesive group by any measure, and generally lack organisation skills. However, implying this is the sole reason for the present state of affairs in this context is a bit one- dimensional imo.

We should not forget the region was divided up by the British after WWI, checks & balances (borders unilaterally decided, 'friendly' rulers in place etc) were set up to consolidate control for the remaining part of the century. The creation known as Saudi Arabia, ruled by the House of Saud (Seven Sisters), has played an especially negative role in that sense for all Im concerned. Acting like a pivot to which the status quo could (easily) be maintained.

So blame the west when they ignored tribal boundaries and made states on a map and then blame the west again when those never quiet states go back to tribal boundaries? WTF? What is your suggested solution?

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