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Syria and Iraq map showing changes since 2014


Gingitsune

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I was looking for a map of today's position of all players in the Syria and Irak wars, but I stumble upon this map which shows where everyone was on December 31st 2014 and where they fund themselves on January 1st 2015.

syria__iraq_and_lebanon_over_2015_by_thumboy21-d9mb5n5.png

I also have a much detailed map with villages and border crosspoints. Although it is probably updated regularly and won't stay accurate with today's positions. Anyway, here it is:

https://upload.wikim...nsurgencies.png

So, let's play armchair generals. B)

The first thing to catch my eyes is how much ground Daesh lost in Irak. Another year like that and they will be zipped back into Syrian borders. Although this hide some big cities which promise to be hard to retake like Mosul and Fallujah. The last is about surrounded now and they are working on it for the former, notably with the fall of Sinjar a few weeks ago which cut the northern supply road.

Another is how Syrian Kurds progressed. They were so far from Kobanî by the end of 2014, now the city will be really, really hard to retake by anyone not Kurd. Also, we don't see it on the main map, but on the second one I linked, we see the Kurds manage to secure the third border crosspoints close to their territories, which left only two others much farther West. Syrian Kurds and Iraki Kurds also worked together to form a single front by the end of 2015, while they were disconnected in late 2014.

If you are wandering why the little Kurdish push across the Euphrates in the middle of Daesh territories, it seems Turkey forbade the Kurds to cross the Euphrates as they looked ready to take on Jarabulus and its border crosspoint. The point is Turkey doesn't like Assad and want to keep feeding Daesh and other opposition fighters to obliterate the regime. The Kurds decided to not risk it with Jarabulus and take the dam farther South instead to cross the river. It is South enough for Turkey land artillery not to reach them, the only way to get them would be planes or missiles. Of course, Putin is just waiting for a Turkish plane to cross the border to shot it down, so it would be a pure waste of resources. And missiles looks too official an attack, there's no way that won't backfire. Therefore, Syrian Kurds will try to cut Daesh supply line in 2016. Or so I read in the Kurdish and Turkish paper (English laguage, I don't read Kurdish or Turkish).

The Assad regime front look seriously bad, they lost a lot of land to Daesh, no wonder Putin came to give a hand. Although the area lost is composed mainly of scattered villages, so take or lose some make a lot of land change hands. They are in danger to see their territories cut into Northern and Southern islands. I just realized Daesh is much closer to Dasmacus on the second map, probably showing progress since January 1st. This is getting dangerously out of hand for Assad's regime. They need to retake the border crosspoint with Irak which they lost in 2015, which would confine Daesh to the Qa'im vicinity in Irak and make it easier to deal with in Syria.

That's about it for this time. What do you guys see?

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The Assad regime front look seriously bad, they lost a lot of land to Daesh, no wonder Putin came to give a hand. Although the area lost is composed mainly of scattered villages, so take or lose some make a lot of land change hands. They are in danger to see their territories cut into Northern and Southern islands. I just realized Daesh is much closer to Dasmacus on the second map, probably showing progress since January 1st. This is getting dangerously out of hand for Assad's regime. They need to retake the border crosspoint with Irak which they lost in 2015, which would confine Daesh to the Qa'im vicinity in Irak and make it easier to deal with in Syria.

Assad's forces have launched a major offensive backed by Russian air power and I believe are set to reclaim some territories. Give it some time.

http://tass.ru/en/defense/847437

http://sputniknews.c...rmy-aleppo.html

http://sputniknews.c...my-palmyra.html

Edited by EEHC
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  • 4 months later...

I'm hijacking my own topic, just because I couldn't fin any more relevant topic to post this in.

The front are moving in Irak. Iraki army is working to take back Fallujah, while peshmerga is slowly working to surround then retake Mosul. I read this in mainstream papers, but I always back these kind of article with more local papers, and when Turks and Kurds agree on a news you can bet it's real.

If things go smoothly, Daesh should be out of Irak by the end of 2016, and probably dying if not dead in Syria.

article from hurriyetdailynews
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/iraqi-army-storms-to-edge-of-isil-held-fallujah-as-fresh-bombings-hit-baghdad.aspx?pageID=238&nID=99837&NewsCatID=352
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/iraqi-kurds-launch-offensive-east-of-mosul-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=99814&NewsCatID=352

articles from kudish rudaw
http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/310520161
http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/300520166

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Just a little point to add.  As the Peshmerga, Syrian and Iraqi forces take land, it over extends their lines into ISIS territory.  All their gains can be easily lost.  Air power can never be available 24x7.  But I think the main thrust of ISIS for the moment is the capture of Baghdad from the inside.  Baghdad is the key in this stage of the war.  ISIS will let Iraq take Fallujah (and others), only to take Baghdad.  ISIS hasn't been taking (or loosing) territory like they have because of opposition.  It's because their goal has changed.

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On 2016-06-08 at 11:47 AM, RavenHawk said:

Just a little point to add.  As the Peshmerga, Syrian and Iraqi forces take land, it over extends their lines into ISIS territory.  All their gains can be easily lost.  Air power can never be available 24x7.  But I think the main thrust of ISIS for the moment is the capture of Baghdad from the inside.  Baghdad is the key in this stage of the war.  ISIS will let Iraq take Fallujah (and others), only to take Baghdad.  ISIS hasn't been taking (or loosing) territory like they have because of opposition.  It's because their goal has changed.

ISIS is being degraded and carefully removed like a cancer.

The Russians have cutted their supply lines with Turkey, forced tons of their fighters to defect or retreat towards Raqqa. Their moral must be very low as their lofty goal of creating a '''Caliphate'' vanishes by the day and are forcefully brought back to reality.

Edited by TruthSeeker_
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8 hours ago, TruthSeeker_ said:

ISIS is being degraded and carefully removed like a cancer.

The Russians have cutted their supply lines with Turkey, forced tons of their fighters to defect or retreat towards Raqqa. Their moral must be very low as their lofty goal of creating a '''Caliphate'' vanishes by the day and are forcefully brought back to reality.

IMO the problem with defeating ISIS on the battlefield and taking away land from them is that there are no guarantees that they will just disappear and cease being a problem. Driving them underground and in hiding will only cause them to carry the fight against their enemies on another battlefield or even more terrorist activities targeted against the west and their friends. 

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3 hours ago, Leto_loves_melange said:

IMO the problem with defeating ISIS on the battlefield and taking away land from them is that there are no guarantees that they will just disappear and cease being a problem. Driving them underground and in hiding will only cause them to carry the fight against their enemies on another battlefield or even more terrorist activities targeted against the west and their friends. 

They can never be 'wiped out' completely but the threat can be reduced to a manageable level. It's one reason to stop insisting on Assad's departure, since the regime in Syria acts as a buffer against Islamic extremism. They don't tolerate such groups. In fact, if you look at it closely, ISIS has had most success against countries with weak governements and worn-out military forces. Iraq, Syria, Libya... So that should be fixed.

Edited by TruthSeeker_
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3 hours ago, Leto_loves_melange said:

IMO the problem with defeating ISIS on the battlefield and taking away land from them is that there are no guarantees that they will just disappear and cease being a problem. Driving them underground and in hiding will only cause them to carry the fight against their enemies on another battlefield or even more terrorist activities targeted against the west and their friends. 

Most of Daesh are foreigners, strangers in a strange land. Despised by all, they can't just melt back into the native population. Most of them will die grisly deaths when their erstwhile captives turn on them.

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21 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

Most of Daesh are foreigners, strangers in a strange land. Despised by all, they can't just melt back into the native population. Most of them will die grisly deaths when their erstwhile captives turn on them.

...and these foreign fighters will outta necessity go back to their respective nations one day cause they won't be able to meld into Syria and Iraq. They will have to run back to their home nations. The threat of Islamic State has now just been spread and multiplied. What I'm saying is that Islamic State and their occupation of parts of Syria and Iraq served a purpose for the west. "wanna fight us?" then come to Iraq and Syria... now there is no reason to travel anymore to jihad. 

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17 minutes ago, Leto_loves_melange said:

...and these foreign fighters will outta necessity go back to their respective nations one day cause they won't be able to meld into Syria and Iraq. They will have to run back to their home nations. The threat of Islamic State has now just been spread and multiplied. What I'm saying is that Islamic State and their occupation of parts of Syria and Iraq served a purpose for the west. "wanna fight us?" then come to Iraq and Syria... now there is no reason to travel anymore to jihad. 

Not an easy task, now that every hand is against them; they have surrounded themselves with enemies. Even their chief benefactors, the treacherous Turks will kill everyone of them they get their hands on to hide their complicity. Without Erdogan there could have never have been a Daesh.

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