How long could a big conspiracy really last ?

[UM-Bot]

A new maths study has suggested that it is very difficult to keep a conspiracy under wraps for long.

From the idea that global warming is a hoax to the notion that man never set foot on the moon - conspiracy theories continue to remain a significant part of today's popular culture.

Read More: http://www.unexplain...acy-really-last

[Buzz_Light_Year]

Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.

Benjamin Franklin

[You Know Nothing!!]

So the Tuskegee syphilis experiment remained under wraps for several decades and yet we're led to believe that if NASA decided to fake a moon landing that we'd know about it within 3.7 years! Hmmmmmm

Edited January 27, 2016 by You Know Nothing!!

[tyrant lizard]

Everyone tells someone. Extrapolate from there

[Farmer77]

I find this article highly annoying. Operation Northwoods, Tuskogee, Mk ultra, Manhatten Project, to a lesser extent operation paperclip, Montauk project, heck even cia running drugs into LA have all been shown to be conspiracies which had a pretty long shelf life.

[Ell]

His data were biased. He did not take into account the conspiracies where many people were involved and that have never been revealed to the public.

[Merc14]

I find this article highly annoying. Operation Northwoods, Tuskogee, Mk ultra, Manhatten Project, to a lesser extent operation paperclip, Montauk project, heck even cia running drugs into LA have all been shown to be conspiracies which had a pretty long shelf life.

I find conspiracy fanatics highly annoying but what can you do?

His data were biased. He did not take into account the conspiracies where many people were involved and that have never been revealed to the public.

No, actually he did and the point of the math is to show that many CT's are just fantasies created by the CT nutjobs.

One mistake the author makes is using the global warming CT as an example. One can argue that his formula worked because of the discovery of the Climatic Research Unit email scandal and conspiracy that was quickly uncovered.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Merc14

[b0wn]

Roswell, anyone?

[Farmer77]

I find conspiracy fanatics highly annoying but what can you do?

No, actually he did and the point of the math is to show that many CT's are just fantasies created by the CT nutjobs.

One mistake the author makes is using the global warming CT as an example. One can argue that his formula worked because of the discovery of the Climatic Research Unit email scandal and conspiracy that was quickly uncovered.

I hope your nonsensical post made you feel better. Doesnt change the fact that the conspiracies I posted are established fact, they happened and they were secret for a long time therefore making this article pointless, well other than to confirm the bias' of some.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Farmer77

[flyingswan]

I find conspiracy fanatics highly annoying but what can you do?

As do I.

One mistake the author makes is using the global warming CT as an example. One can argue that his formula worked because of the discovery of the Climatic Research Unit email scandal and conspiracy that was quickly uncovered.

And global warming deniers are just as annoying as the rest of them. Their misinterpretation of the leaked e-mails was a typical CT tactic.

[Merc14]

I hope your nonsensical post made you feel better. Doesnt change the fact that the conspiracies I posted are established fact, they happened and they were secret for a long time.

Well, let's see:

Operation Northwoods - Proposed military operation against Cuba. Not a cover-up and not a conspiracy unless we label every military operation since the march on Carthage a CT.

Tuskogee (sic) - One assumes the Tuskegee syphilis experiment. Experiment ran from 1932-1972 when someone finally said enough is enough and publicized what was going on. Has nothing to do with this topic as there was no cover-up.

MKUltra - Unethical program run by DoD and CIA until 1972. Was brought public attention in 1975. Formula worked.

Manhattan Project - Another military operation during time of war. Immediately disclosed after end of WWII. Has nothing to do with this article.

You haven't made your case that this formula is wrong with any of the above.

[Merc14]

As do I.

And global warming deniers are just as annoying as the rest of them. Their misinterpretation of the leaked e-mails was a typical CT tactic.

Misinterpretation!! How delusional are you? I find close minded people who unilaterally decide that one specific branch of science, climatology, is no longer disputable, that all is known that will ever be known to be an especially chilling phenomenon. In a world where physicists are once again debating the Big Bang the warming zealots have decided that all that will ever be known about climate change is already known and that we should jail those who question their god-like knowledge. No thanks, especially when the models are so obviously flawed. Science is never closed to debate and never should be.

[Farmer77]

Well, let's see:

Operation Northwoods - Proposed military operation against Cuba. Not a cover-up and not a conspiracy unless we label every military operation since the march on Carthage a CT.

Tuskogee (sic) - One assumes the Tuskegee syphilis experiment. Experiment ran from 1932-1972 when someone finally said enough is enough and publicized what was going on. Has nothing to do with this topic as there was no cover-up.

MKUltra - Unethical program run by DoD and CIA until 1972. Was brought public attention in 1975. Formula worked.

Manhattan Project - Another military operation during time of war. Immediately disclosed after end of WWII. Has nothing to do with this article.

You haven't made your case that this formula is wrong with any of the above.

In reality MK Ultra started in 1953 and wasnt discovered until 1975 . Are you intentionally being intellectually dishonest? Tuskogee was kept secret by several conspirators, therefore it was a conspiracy. Manhattan project is the perfect example of a conspiracy of secrecy. To deny that is again just simple intellectual dishonesty.

The CIA ran drugs into LA, that was once fodder for conspiracy theorists now its accepted fact.

Ill give you that northwoods is the questionable one on that list but the rest are verified conspiracies that A. are proven facts and B. makes this article pointless

[Merc14]

In reality MK Ultra started in 1953 and wasnt discovered until 1975 . Are you intentionally being intellectually dishonest?

Tuskogee was kept secret by several conspirators, therefore it was a conspiracy. Manhattan project is the perfect example of a conspiracy of secrecy. To deny that is again just simple intellectual dishonesty.

The CIA ran drugs into LA, that was once fodder for conspiracy theorists now its accepted fact.

Ill give you that northwoods is the questionable one on that list but the rest are verified conspiracies that A. are proven facts and B. makes this article pointless

AS I said, none of your examples disprove the man's formula.

[Farmer77]

AS I said, none of your examples disprove the man's formula.

So the fact that MK Ultra went on for 19 years without being discovered should just be thrown out? Its fine to dislike conspiracy theories heck its even fine to dislike conspiracy theorists but to choose willful ignorance in the face of facts is self defeating.

[Goodnite]

All scientific evidence show we landed on the moon. A good telescope and you can see our space junk still sitting there.

[Professor Buzzkill]

What a BS article. i found an extended version in the local rag today. The numbers they use are bogus. For example:

The Moon landing hoax, for instance, began in 1965 and would have involved about 411,000 Nasa employees. With these parameters, Dr Grimes's equation suggests that the hoax would have been revealed after 3.7 years.

So they are saying that all 411,000 people would have to be "in" on it if there was a conspiracy?

Not that i am a staunch believer either way with the moon landing, but surely 410,000 of those people would be kept in the dark, going about thinking they designed a space toilet that works or that they are talking to astronauts thousands of miles away, when they could have been next door.

This is a simple "garbage in- garbage out" equation

[rashore]

I backtracked the article... for people that are interested, here is a link to the research article in question: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905

On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs

Abstract

Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy. Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.

The whole article isn't really all that long, worth a read.

[Merc14]

So the fact that MK Ultra went on for 19 years without being discovered should just be thrown out? Its fine to dislike conspiracy theories heck its even fine to dislike conspiracy theorists but to choose willful ignorance in the face of facts is self defeating.

There are many classified programs being run right now, do you consider all of them to be conspiracies?

[Farmer77]

There are many classified programs being run right now, do you consider all of them to be conspiracies?

Conspiracy :1) a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful. 2) the action of plotting or conspiring

Personally I tend to lean towards definition #1 . So yeah things like MK ultra and tuskogee are absolutely conspiracies. Any of the current programs being run which causes harm i would consider to be conspiracies. The NSA data collection being a good example of that.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Farmer77

[Farmer77]

Speaking of conspiracies this popped up on my FB feed just a bit ago, fun little read thought id share: 5 Total Nobodies Who Stumbled Upon Huge Conspiracies http://www.cracked.com/article_23544_5-random-people-who-stumbled-upon-huge-conspiracies_p2.html

[Use your brain]

http://www.businessinsider.com/5-conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true-2015-6

http://theantimedia.org/10-conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true/

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/11-conspiracy-theories-that-proved-true-150918.htm

[Merc14]

Conspiracy :1) a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful. 2) the action of plotting or conspiring

Personally I tend to lean towards definition #1 . So yeah things like MK ultra and tuskogee are absolutely conspiracies. Any of the current programs being run which causes harm i would consider to be conspiracies. The NSA data collection being a good example of that.

Disagree. Unethical is not the same as illegal or unconstitutional and time of war changes everyone's margins. What would you call Hillary's email server? It was definitely illegal given the classified material she was storing on it but was that a conspiracy? I would say the cover-up, attempted destruction of evidence and the veil of silence her cohorts seem sworn to constitutes a conspiracy but in the context of this particular topic the secret was quickly broken thereby confirming the Dr.'s formula/theory.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Merc14

[rashore]

http://www.businessi...-be-true-2015-6

http://theantimedia....out-to-be-true/

http://news.discover...true-150918.htm

Awww, come on man, you could have at least told us what the articles are about for those of us that don't want to do click-bait. And it's just polite to let people know what they are looking into. And some people aren't willing or able to just blindly click on whatever gets posted.

[Farmer77]

Disagree. Unethical is not the same as illegal or unconstitutional and time of war changes everyone's margins. What would you call Hillary's email server? It was definitely illegal given the classified material she was storing on it but was that a conspiracy? I would say the cover-up, attempted destruction of evidence and the veil of silence her cohorts seem sworn to constitutes a conspiracy but in the context of this particular topic the secret was quickly broken thereby confirming the Dr.'s formula/theory.

I dont care about illegalities hell it was legal for hitler to cook jews. I care about right. Dosing black folks with syphilis without them knowing is wrong, regardless of legality, same with sneaking people LSD its wrong regardless of whether we are at war or not. As for hilary's email thing I have such a low opinion of her and all politicians I really havent followed the theater that closely. From my limited knowledge of the situation I would say you are correct it was a conspiracy which came to light rather quickly.