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11 Countries Gearing Up to Strike Trade Deals


keithisco

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The UK has a Current Account Deficit per GDP of 6% which is fairly high for a western nation 

The UK only has a trade deficit with one part of the world - the EU.

It has a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

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15 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Sorry for the delayed reply, just got a bit busy.  The point is, do you throw away all that's been achieved for a dubious and possibly shaky future or do you stick it out and work on the negatives?  Steve and Keith want us to believe that the UK's future is prosperous because others are making futuristic Trade agreement offers and the Country hasn't suffered any major recession as yet.  First, the UK is still part of the EU and second, experts aren't suggesting the UK will become something like a third world country.  What I've read and most are predicting is that the UK will become a minor player on the world financial scene. 

Currently the UK is 6th in the world per GDP which Economists use to judge the wealth of a nation based on the flow of Goods and Services.  Even without the UK, the EU is just behind the US with a population 10 times the amount and they are within the same Marketing region.  Currently, the UK is the 10th highest exporter in the world thanks to the production of primary goods but, except for the US, most of it is exported to other European countries.  The UK has a Current Account Deficit per GDP of 6% which is fairly high for a western nation (Australia's is 3%, the US 2.25%).  To put it into perspective Germany has a Current Account Surplus of 7.5%. Balance sheets usually indicate a country's financial stability.  A Deficit isn't a bad thing If you can use borrow foreign capital but you need to be able to balance off payments through healthy trade by selling more than you import.  If the debt becomes too high a country has to sell it's assets, raise taxes, opt for austerity measures or risk becoming insolvent.  Greece had the EU (and Germany) to pull it out of trouble, once article 50 is triggered, who will pull the UK out? 

Of course this is all hypothetical and we'll just have to wait and see what trade deals and partnerships the UK manages to strike after article 50 but one thing is certain, the UK will be very dependent on how the EU reacts.  Politically, the UK is one of the most influential country's in the world.  It's a permanent member of the UN and a member of the G7, G20, OECD, WTO....  It's one of the most advanced and developed country's in the world, it'd be ludicrous to suggest it's going to develop into some banana republic.  I just think people in Britain, specially the blue collar workers, are going to have to get used to times of financial hardship.

 

Just a few points the UK remains the worlds fifth largest economy. France still 6th. and this can be verified by the IMF, and World Bank.

in reply to your second paragraph; the "current account" deficit you refer to encompasses both private and public debt. So its not usual to hover around  4% to 7% due to the fact The United Kingdom is a Globalised economy and the number one destination in Europe for inward direct foreign investment. So this deficit includes many foreign investors in the UK sending dividend payments back to their foreign owners and covers money paid to employees abroad by British companies. So a sense of perspective is needed.

So we entice more foreign investment to help cover the "Current Account" balance. UK corporate tax is to be dropped to 15% the lowest in the western world that will boost both domestic and direct foreign investment. couple that with pound sterling dropping to £1 to $1.10 to $1.20 USD will help boost exports and manufacturing.  - People need to see Brexit as a golden opportunity to rebalance our economy.

You make reference to the EU (Germany) pulling Greece out of trouble. then ask the question Who's going to pull the UK out of trouble when article 50 is triggered. the answer to that is the United Kingdom itself. - Something Greece could have done if they'd have stayed out the one size fits all Euro. the UK unlike Greece never handed over its ability to adjust its own economy and currency to suit market conditions. Its a well known fact today - if the UK would have joined the Euro currency we'd have been in a worse state than Greece so that's how serious the UK economy was. But having the levers of power to adjust our currency and economy we avoided Greek levels of crisis and austerity - in fact retaining our own ability pushed us to the fastest growing economy in the G7, not for one year, not for two years but 4 years and counting.

You have to remember we are a consumer economy that's why its important we are able to get back the ability to conduct our own trade deals. We have to make our way in this world by what we import. we are a globalised maritime Nation, the key figure is this our population makes up less than 1% of world population but our GDP makes up 4% of World GDP. Its already been posted, but we run a surplus with every continent in the world except Europe. But still you somehow believe we should tether ourself to a outdated economic model, and to a economic area that is not performing.

I've said it many times, how does a "empire" expand its territorial gain and resources of 28 countries and 508 million people and in the process lose its market share from 33% 1973 to 16% today and estimated to drop to 13% when the UK leaves. its clear to see, the UK leaves and so does a percentage of market share, but the EU expands and market share doesn't increase that draws attention to something not working with the EU itself. the EU's rules and regulation coupled with the Eurozone is doomed to fail and its been happening for sometime. The death knell is Brussels ambition for full fiscal union.

So lets get this right, to trade with the World you pay on average 2% Tariff. (WTO) and you have the added bonus and ability to set up your own trade deals with whoever you want. - But on the other hand to Trade with the EU, you have to pay annually membership fee of £20billion (Gross) £10Billion (Net) you have to hand over your Fishing Grounds. European Courts overrule British Courts, over 50% of your Laws are made for you by the EU. and then on top of that you lose your border controls by having to accept Free Movement of people, and then on Average you have to apply a 4% tariff on imports from outside the EU.

This wasnt what the UK signed up for in 1973, but this is what the EU overtime as evolved into. and the question needs asking once and for all. - if the EU believes in itself - EU wide Referendums need to be held. and lets just see what the outcome is, thats the acid test.

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7 hours ago, Black Monk said:

We heard all that nonsense when Britain wisely decided not to adopt the euro. At the time, euro supporters and economists were predicting that, if we don't join the euro, London would suffer as a financial centre and that Frankfurt and Paris would overtake London as financial centres

What actually happened is that London just pulled even  further ahead of Paris and Frankfurt.

 

...yes Britain was wise not to adopt the Euro but not for the reasons you mentioned but rather because Britain had no need to further integrate with Europe. And adopting the Euro just would have meant more pain at some point down the line getting to rid of the euro currency.

You know, the more this brexit drama unfolds the more it seems that staying away from Europe was the end game. Regardless of who was going to win during brexit debate i think that Britain's participation in the EU was about foiling European integration and when that seemed over Britain decided to get out.

Credit to Britain for defying American plans for using Britain as a fifth column to influence Europe and kudo's to your country for looking out for its own sense of destiny. Unfortunately the economic price will be high for your nation. But make no mistake the outcome of the brexit debate wasn't random or democratic but rather staged by the British deep state.   

Edited by Leto_loves_melange
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1 hour ago, Black Monk said:

Any opinion article that uses data only up to May to support a decision made in June is not one I'll be taking seriously.

Perhaps it would be better to wait until we actually leave - or negotiations even begin - before we judge the economy, don't you think?

Edited by Setton
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4 minutes ago, Setton said:

Any opinion article that uses data only up to May to support a decision made in June is not one I'll be taking seriously.

Perhaps it would be better to wait until we actually leave - or negotiations even begin - before we judge the economy, don't you think?

Besides, if Labour would have been for leaving the EU and the Tories against it, the Torygraph would by now appear with a black border....

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5 hours ago, Setton said:

Any opinion article that uses data only up to May to support a decision made in June is not one I'll be taking seriously.

Perhaps it would be better to wait until we actually leave - or negotiations even begin - before we judge the economy, don't you think?

I agree lets wait five years.

In Related News China free trade update.

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China

24 July 2016

Chancellor Philip Hammond has begun discussions with China on an ambitious free trade deal which could see greater access for major Chinese banks and businesses to the UK economy.

_90500564_hammondmakaiafpgetty.jpg

Chancellor Philip Hammond met Chinese vice premier Ma Kai in Beijing)

The Chancellor told the BBC it was time to explore "new opportunities" across the world, including with China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors.

Chinese state media reported earlier in the month that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce wants to do a UK free trade deal. Mr Hammond has now revealed that Britain is also keen. It will be the first time the UK has embarked on such a major project with the second largest economy in the world.

In return for greater access to the UK for its manufactured products and investment, China would reduce barriers to Britain's service industries like banking and insurance as well as UK goods.

That would be an important source of export income for Britain. "The mood music that I have heard here is very much that this will mean more opportunity for countries like China that are outside the European Union to do business with Britain," Mr Hammond said. "And as Britain leaves the European Union and is not bound by the rules of the European Union perhaps it will be easier to do deals with Britain in the future."

"We already have a strategic partnership with China. "We have hugely increased our trade with China, investment both by British companies into China and by Chinese entities into the UK. "That's about as far as we can go while we are members of the European Union.

"But once we are out of the European Union then I have no doubt on both sides we will want to cement that relationship into a firmer structure in a bilateral way that's appropriate.

 

Edited by stevewinn
to add good news.
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21 hours ago, Setton said:

 

Perhaps it would be better to wait until we actually leave - or negotiations even begin - before we judge the economy, don't you think?

No, definitely not.

The fact of the matter is that the Brexopalypse that the Remainiacs told us would have happened by now just hasn't materialised.

Britain is going along fine and dandily and will continue to do so. Things are much better outside the dismal  EU.

The Brexit pill has not choked us as expected

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/the-brexit-pill-has-not-choked-us-as-expected/

Edited by Black Monk
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41 minutes ago, Black Monk said:

No, definitely not.

The fact of the matter is that the Brexopalypse that the Remainiacs told us would have happened by now just hasn't materialised.

Britain is going along fine and dandily and will continue to do so. Things are much better outside the dismal  EU.

The Brexit pill has not choked us as expected

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/the-brexit-pill-has-not-choked-us-as-expected/

After all the scaremongering, Even with the triggering of Article 50 all still project growth for the UK out to as far as 2030. and the IMF predicts world growth, and as we know a rising tide lifts all boats. :tu:

on a side Note the EU have put on the table, the UK retains access to the single Market, in exchange for a seven year handbrake on free movement. but the UK needs to continue to pay a fee. its only early days. But that can be improved upon. it shows the EU is keen for the UK remaining in the single market and us paying a membership fee.

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8 hours ago, Black Monk said:

No, definitely not.

The fact of the matter is that the Brexopalypse that the Remainiacs told us would have happened by now just hasn't materialised.

Britain is going along fine and dandily and will continue to do so. Things are much better outside the dismal  EU.

The Brexit pill has not choked us as expected

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/the-brexit-pill-has-not-choked-us-as-expected/

That's because we haven't actually left, or even formally announced we are leaving (why is this so hard for some to understand?).

I hope we are better off out and do think things are more encouraging than expected.

But to say we will be fine because we are ok now is the equivalent of soaking your house in petrol, standing in the middle with a box of matches and saying it'll be fine when you light one because nothing's on fire yet.

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17 hours ago, Setton said:

That's because we haven't actually left, or even formally announced we are leaving (why is this so hard for some to understand?).

I hope we are better off out and do think things are more encouraging than expected.

But to say we will be fine because we are ok now is the equivalent of soaking your house in petrol, standing in the middle with a box of matches and saying it'll be fine when you light one because nothing's on fire yet.

Your posts confuse me, you come across level headed, you've said a few times you think we'll be fine as a country, such as were not going to become a third rate power. etc.. the EU will go on and so will the UK. So what's with all the analogies, the house soaked in petrol. - okay we haven't left yet, but when we do you seem to expect its at that point all the Sodom and Gomorrah will start, - the prophecies of doom.  - Look at it this way, we are using this time now to prepare for our departure. so all the time spent now ensuring that will mean are departure will be orderly. The G20 have already been onto the EU warning them. - So i imagine if the EU does anything to upset economies the G20 wont look too kindly on it. so pressure mounts on the EU. the fact 95% of EU deals are covered by WTO. the EU as to tread very carefully, but then we don't expect them (EU) to be vindictive - so all will be well.

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7 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Your posts confuse me, you come across level headed, you've said a few times you think we'll be fine as a country, such as were not going to become a third rate power. etc.. the EU will go on and so will the UK. So what's with all the analogies, the house soaked in petrol. - okay we haven't left yet, but when we do you seem to expect its at that point all the Sodom and Gomorrah will start, - the prophecies of doom.  - Look at it this way, we are using this time now to prepare for our departure. so all the time spent now ensuring that will mean are departure will be orderly. The G20 have already been onto the EU warning them. - So i imagine if the EU does anything to upset economies the G20 wont look too kindly on it. so pressure mounts on the EU. the fact 95% of EU deals are covered by WTO. the EU as to tread very carefully, but then we don't expect them (EU) to be vindictive - so all will be well.

It's hypothetical. We could be far worse off for coming out. We could be fine. The point is, we don't know yet.

Given that Black Monk was claiming it's all fine, I was using an analogy for where everything's fine because you haven't done anything yet. If someone claims we're definitely, definitely doomed and tries to present that opinion as fact, I'll happily compare them to Puddleglum (everything's going to go wrong even though nothing's happened yet :P

As for the green, I hope you are right and that's certainly how countries should handle it. But I don't want to underestimate the pettiness of officials whose positions have just been made that much less secure by Britain.

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On 25/07/2016 at 0:17 PM, stevewinn said:

After all the scaremongering, Even with the triggering of Article 50 all still project growth for the UK out to as far as 2030. and the IMF predicts world growth, and as we know a rising tide lifts all boats. :tu:

on a side Note the EU have put on the table, the UK retains access to the single Market, in exchange for a seven year handbrake on free movement. but the UK needs to continue to pay a fee. its only early days. But that can be improved upon. it shows the EU is keen for the UK remaining in the single market and us paying a membership fee.

The US trades more with the single market than Britain does yet never has to accept free movement of people. So Britain should be able to do the same.

Interesting that the EU has just appointed its Brexit negotiator. It seems as though the EU is ready to talk to Britain now rather than waiting until Article 50 is triggered, which was the EU's original stance.

Edited by Black Monk
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Just thought I would provide an update on those non-EU countries lining up to do a free trade deal with the UK::rolleyes:

Australia
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Ecuador
Ghana
Iceland
India
Japan
Kenya
Korea (Republic of)
Mexico
New Zealand
Pakistan
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Switzerland
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela

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Sturgeon left HUMILIATED as poll finds Scots WANT to remain part of Britain despite Brexit

MORE than half of Scots do not want independence from the UK despite Britain’s decision to leave the European Union last month, a shock poll has found.

The findings that some 53 per cent of Scottish voters would rather stay with the UK has seriously undermined the SNP and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

The humiliating stats came to light just hours after SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson said Scotland was “truly on the brink of independence”.

Sturgeon has claimed Brexit would cause a surge in Scots opting to leave Britain after suggesting 62 per cent of Scottish people chose to remain in the Brussels bloc.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/694881/Nicola-Sturgeon-Brexit-Scottish-independence-referendum-EU-Scots-leave-UK

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Six in ten British workers believe Brexit will boost their salaries and are confident that quitting the EU will have a positive effect on their career prospects.

A major survey of more than 28,000 users of Jobsite handed to MailOnline found that less than a third of people believe the split from Brussels will have a negative effect on their earnings.

The results reveal men are more confident about post-Brexit Britain, with 62 per cent of male workers saying they think it will boost their career prospects, compared to 57 per cent of women.

Initial research into the June 23 referendum suggested there were no major differences in the way men and women voted.

Only a third of respondents said they would consider pursuing a career in a different EU country in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Those working in the engineering and technical services industries are the most optimistic about post-Brexit Britain, with 62 per cent of both sectors believing the success of the company they work at could improve.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3715019/Brexit-boost-workers-Six-ten-people-believe-leaving-EU-boost-salaries-positive-effect-career-prospects.html

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