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This year's global warming is off the charts


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I don't know about overall and global but I can tell you summer in the Pacific NW started in March this year.  Definitely on average hotter than usual.

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We haven't been as hot but we've been warmer, longer and earlier.

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We travel a lot bewteen sw Illinois and las vegas neveda. I can tell you that this winter in Illinois was very very cold. Little snow. When we got to vegas in may it was below normal. So far we have been running about 8 degrees above normal every day. This makes the 14th year staying in vegas for part of year and its the second hottest we have had.

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Been a hot one here in Northern Ontario this year.

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I haven't seen it this hot since last summer.

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Most of the current temperature excursion is the doing of El Nino.  Only a tiny part is human-caused global warming.  We should be seeing more-normal temps by mid-winter.

Doug

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No it's not hotter, just more BS from them librul scientists trying to get rich off research grants and solar power. Stupid smart people.

See? http://blog.heartland.org/2016/07/the-global-war-against-fossil-fuels/

I'm with Victoria Jackson, God, Trump, Exxon-Valdez, the OKC Frackers, coal plants, Worldcomm, Roger Ailes, Tom Delay, Phillip-Morris and Enron on this one. Winning.

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I saw an article the other day, and I'm sorry I do not have a source, I simply don't remember where I saw it. But it went on to state that the vast majority of climate data we have is of the United States, that much of the rest of the world is incomplete data at best, and it went on to say that about half of the data for the U.S. was fabricated. Now I don't know if this is true, but I do know there have been allegations of data manipulation from the start, both in Europe and through NASA. If real global warming is happening, these allegations have hurt any true science that is being done, because fudging figures to push an agenda is not science and breeds mistrust in the scientific institutions that should know better. 

Yes, it's very hot. We are having a La Nina event in the Pacific which tend to cause such heat over the United States, if memory serves. Last year we had an El Nino pattern and we had more rain and cooler temperatures. These event seem to be cyclical, we are having a drought where I live, in a normally wet part of the U.S., we had one in 2004 along with many wildfires, then we went back to a more normal pattern for nearly a decade. In other words, one hot, dry summer does not a disaster make. If this trend were to continue, that would be different, but only time will tell that. 

 

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the fraking system is asking more money for green tehnologies. 25 dollars to rent an electric boat 36 a solar powered one. Electric cars are more expensive than gas although the technology is less expensive. Everyone sees money and oportunities to make money from being green... or from the desire to save the planet...
ohh yeah i also agree f... liberals

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2 hours ago, qxcontinuum said:

the fraking system is asking more money for green tehnologies. 25 dollars to rent an electric boat 36 a solar powered one. Electric cars are more expensive than gas although the technology is less expensive. Everyone sees money and oportunities to make money from being green... or from the desire to save the planet...
ohh yeah i also agree f... liberals

That's because you have to pay for R&D. Put the money in early and over the course of time the tech will become cheaper. What the hell does it have to do with being liberal? It's about not being an idiot who can't see past their own front porch. 

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We have not seen an increase in temperature here. It's been normal to below normal for the past 8 years that I've been here. The 4 before that in Maine it was below normal for the most part. Not saying for anywhere else but thats what we've been seeing. What seems to be odd is that the sun isn't right in winter.

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15 hours ago, Sundew said:

I saw an article the other day, and I'm sorry I do not have a source, I simply don't remember where I saw it. But it went on to state that the vast majority of climate data we have is of the United States, that much of the rest of the world is incomplete data at best, and it went on to say that about half of the data for the U.S. was fabricated. Now I don't know if this is true, but I do know there have been allegations of data manipulation from the start, both in Europe and through NASA. If real global warming is happening, these allegations have hurt any true science that is being done, because fudging figures to push an agenda is not science and breeds mistrust in the scientific institutions that should know better. 

Yes, it's very hot. We are having a La Nina event in the Pacific which tend to cause such heat over the United States, if memory serves. Last year we had an El Nino pattern and we had more rain and cooler temperatures. These event seem to be cyclical, we are having a drought where I live, in a normally wet part of the U.S., we had one in 2004 along with many wildfires, then we went back to a more normal pattern for nearly a decade. In other words, one hot, dry summer does not a disaster make. If this trend were to continue, that would be different, but only time will tell that. 

 

A little over 20% of data that has actually been recorded has been entered into databases where it can be accessed and used.  Progress is slowly being made on entering the rest, but due to the very nature of research and research funding, it will take a long time to finish.  Nobody gets a paper out of the drudge work of data entry, so scientists shy away from it.  Congress doesn't want to fund it because they're afraid of what the data will show.  So only if somebody needs to look at a specific place and time does any work get done.

The US has about 3000 weather station volunteers who take daily readings.  This goes back into the 1880s and 1890s.  Since the 1990s we have had automated stations that record everything under the sun once every 20 seconds or so and automatically enter it into databases.  The US has the most-extensive weather information system, but several European cities go back into the 1600s.  The University of Illinois has the "Forts" program where they have created databases for observations taken at military bases by US Army Surgeons and the Signal Corps.  In Oklahoma these go back to July 1, 1824.  There are about six forts that have Oklahoma weather data and a dozen or so weather geeks who kept records during the 19th century.  Data on specific states and cities is available from the National Climate Data Center, but you'll probably have to download the records and transcribe them.

The problem created by weather stations being extremely dense in the US and Europe and extremely sparse on the Arctic Ocean, Antarctica and South America is resolved through a process known as "spatial analysis."  For each evenly-spaced location on the earth's surface a weighted average temp is generated using temperature data from the nearest let's say 20 stations and weighting the data by the inverse of the distance to the station.  These are then averaged globally to obtain changes in global temps.

The process of writing equations to deal with such problems seems like a sort of alchemy to people not familiar with it.  This probably contributes to some of the "data fabrication" claims.

Here are URLs for several other data sources:

Climate Data Station Address:
Arkansas:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html?_page=0&jsessionid=D4C2532AA5328797F0F6866279717F27&state=AR&_target1=Next+>

Oklahoma:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html;jsessionid=1572017C80BF6EEEE8626518DDBFD6CF?_page=0&jsessionid=1572017C80BF6EEEE8626518DDBFD6CF&state=OK&_target1=Next+>

EV2 Station Data Address:
Oklahoma:  http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/FORTS/inventory2.jsp

The Storm Data address is no longer operational.

PDSI address :  ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/drought/pdsi2004/data-by-gridpt/

Global Temperature Anomalies address is:  http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Hadley-Crutcher 4 address is:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/comparison.html

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut4/

 

The problem with trying to fabricate data is that there are thousands of researchers out there using climate data and if the dataset they just downloaded does not align with the tree-ring chronology from that old log pond they just finished digging up, they're going to wonder why the discrepancy.  And if they find fabricated data, the news will be published and the fabricator's career destroyed.

I work with tree rings, so I will illustrate with an example from that field.  Tree ring chronologies need to be corroborated against actual weather records so we will know what a particular ring pattern means.  The closest weather station to the McCurtain County Chronology (Oklahoma) site is Hee Mountain.  The person assigned to the station was an old farmer who only collected weather data when he didn't have any farming to do, so there are large data gaps during planting and harvesting seasons.  Also, he didn't like hot or cold weather, so the hottest and coldest records are missing.  His record keeping was so bad that the Weather Bureau closed his station after about 8 years.  We can still estimate the missing data using records from other nearby stations, but only with a loss of accuracy.

 

Proxies such as tree rings, ice cores and sediment cores are used to extend the climate record back beyond the reach of written records.  Tree ring chronologies are becoming quite numerous (NCDC has over 9400.) and usually go back into the 19th century at least.  The winter storm record generated from tree ring chronologies is more extensive and more accurate than the National Weather Service' storm records before 1949 and I'm working to extend other aspects of weather and climate back into the 1680s, maybe earlier.

See Post #31 in the "Bad news for climate change doubters" thread for more information on why fabricating data is hard to do.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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A quick question: Is generating electricity any less of a "carbon footprint" than any other source of energy.  Think of everything that electricity needs to get to your home or business and not just the generation cost. Solar panels are only useful in a limited regions.  You then have to convert the DC to AC which costs money, energy to make the equipment to convert and wastes energy in the conversion. Wind isn't cost effective..  Nuclear, while cheaper, leaves a potentially hazardous waste if mishandled. You have the energy used to transport the waste, make the storage containers, etc.  So I ask again, which process to generate energy is truly the best in the whole scheme of things.

 

As you can tell, I think the whole global warming is Chicken Little running around saying the Sky is falling, but with cherry-picked "statistics" as proof.

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No, it's not "off the charts this year".  It's actually been a fairly pleasant summer so far.  Sure, we've had a couple of hot days...but in the low 90s.  It's been hotter than that here before.  This is just the gorebal warming money-making scheme to get more money out of tax payers, nothing else.

These climate-conspiracy-theorists need to spend less time making up date and actually getting outside and enjoying the nice weather for once.

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1 hour ago, Thorvir Hrothgaard said:

No, it's not "off the charts this year".  It's actually been a fairly pleasant summer so far.  Sure, we've had a couple of hot days...but in the low 90s.  It's been hotter than that here before.  This is just the gorebal warming money-making scheme to get more money out of tax payers, nothing else.

These climate-conspiracy-theorists need to spend less time making up date and actually getting outside and enjoying the nice weather for once.

THIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING.  It is the El Nino Southern Oscillation acting up.  Global warming has very little to do with it.  We have tree ring records that show it going back to the ice age; it is probably millions of years old.  Yes, we have been setting new records monthly since last October, but this will be ending within a few months.  After that, expect a new "hiatus," or even a decline in temps for a few years.  Let's not blame every warm day on global warming.

Doug

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1 hour ago, tracy18 said:

Global Warming is real. Climate Change is real.

Climate change is real.  The other is just a made up fantasy used to get as much money from people.  Remember global cooling?

1 hour ago, tracy18 said:

We might not see its effect so profusely but our next generations will have to live with adverse effects of global warming

Yeah...for some reason, it's always "gonna happen in the future", and that future keeps getting pushed further and further away.  Sigh.

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Isn't it odd how one or two or three or ten colder than normal winters in a row are NOT indicators that global warming is slowing but one hot summer means warming is increasing? 

Edited by Merc14
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28 minutes ago, Merc14 said:

Isn't it odd how one or two or three or ten colder than normal winters in a row are NOT indicators that global warming is slowing but one hot summer means warming is increasing? 

could you point to one that was colder lately (globally, not locally)?

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I noticed a certain amount of extra humidity in the heated summer air this year. A sort of unnatural bite to the heat, pulling moisture out more deeply than I'm accustomed to. Like wet ice in a boggy swamp. Yuck. Record body heat rashes. Not what I ever remember before.

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21 minutes ago, Zalmoxis said:

I noticed a certain amount of extra humidity in the heated summer air this year. A sort of unnatural bite to the heat, pulling moisture out more deeply than I'm accustomed to. Like wet ice in a boggy swamp. Yuck. Record body heat rashes. Not what I ever remember before.

It's called Bermuda High and this season's has been particularly stubborn http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/05/bermuda_high_is_back_here_come.html

Edited by Merc14
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5 hours ago, Thorvir Hrothgaard said:

Climate change is real.  The other is just a made up fantasy used to get as much money from people.  Remember global cooling?

Yeah...for some reason, it's always "gonna happen in the future", and that future keeps getting pushed further and further away.  Sigh.

The "New Ice Age" thing back in the 60s was nothing more than magazines and newspapers hyping a miscalculation in a single research paper - a miscalculation that was quickly caught and corrected.  But corrections don't sell newspapers, especially when the correction shows that nothing is happening.  So you never heard about it.

But there was a five-year dip in temps from 1964 to 1968 with 1964 being 0.2 degrees colder than the year before.  The popular press went bananas over that and misled everyone who read their bs, including me at the time.

The miscalculated Milankovitch Cycles and the dip in temps had nothing to do with each other, but the popular press put two and two together and got 22.  And now you're doing the same thing.

 

As far as "in the future:"  warming has already happened, is happening now and will continue for the foreseeable future.  The Great Plains were 1.6 degrees colder in 1828 than they are today.  Most of the increase has come since 1967.

Doug

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