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New US Election Probability


HalfAnIdiot

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On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 11:14 PM, Likely Guy said:

Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

fdr didn't lie about his problem

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7 hours ago, Aftermath said:

Clinton's lead halved in new national poll

"Clinton leads Trump by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a head-to-head match-up in the Morning Consult poll released Sunday morning."

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293580-clintons-lead-halved-in-new-national-poll

 

**If she really does have a lead.

Wait, but we were told that can't happen, because math doesn't lie.

Probabilities are changing every day.

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On 8/26/2016 at 5:29 PM, DieChecker said:

It was 20% to 80% just now. Moving, but not very fast.

Almost 22% to 78% today. changing about 0.5% per day toward Trump. For about a week now. Regardless of all the stupid things that he's said, and the nothing much Hillary has said.

Perhaps might get to 25% by next week? Still..... That would take 8 weeks to reach 50/50. But, I do guess we have around 70 days? Which is 10 weeks.... Hum....

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There are polls and there is the real world and they don't seem to agree.  Trump is filling arenas like a rock star while Clinton has to hire actors to fill seats.  Their followings on social media have Trump way ahead.  Most of the comments I've seen attached to news articles about either candidate seem to strongly favor Trump. Here in my part of Ohio I have seen Trump signs and flags all over.  There's been a guy at the local flea market doing a brisk business in Trump flags and T shirts.  There are no competing vendors for Hillary.  I have seen exactly one yard sign for Hillary.  I'm much more inclined to believe what I see over some poll that has been filtered through a biased news media.  Inflating poll numbers can be seen as a self fulfilling prophesy.  Most people like to back a winner so they are more inclined to vote for the one who already seems to be ahead. 

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Hard-nosed bettors say the split is 76% Hillary, 23% Trump, 1% any other.

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There is another factor not considered as well. In many of the states there were lots of first time voters. Doubt any of them were on previous call lists for polls. 

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6 hours ago, Big Jim said:

There are polls and there is the real world and they don't seem to agree.  Trump is filling arenas like a rock star while Clinton has to hire actors to fill seats.  Their followings on social media have Trump way ahead.  Most of the comments I've seen attached to news articles about either candidate seem to strongly favor Trump. Here in my part of Ohio I have seen Trump signs and flags all over.  There's been a guy at the local flea market doing a brisk business in Trump flags and T shirts.  There are no competing vendors for Hillary.  I have seen exactly one yard sign for Hillary.  I'm much more inclined to believe what I see over some poll that has been filtered through a biased news media.  Inflating poll numbers can be seen as a self fulfilling prophesy.  Most people like to back a winner so they are more inclined to vote for the one who already seems to be ahead. 

I'm curious about what county in Ohio.  I hail from the Buckeye state, SW corner (Clermont county), where it's mostly Rep., however the closer to Cleveland (Cuyahoga county) you get the more Dem. it is.

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7 hours ago, Big Jim said:

There are polls and there is the real world and they don't seem to agree.  Trump is filling arenas like a rock star while Clinton has to hire actors to fill seats.  Their followings on social media have Trump way ahead.  Most of the comments I've seen attached to news articles about either candidate seem to strongly favor Trump. Here in my part of Ohio I have seen Trump signs and flags all over.  There's been a guy at the local flea market doing a brisk business in Trump flags and T shirts.  There are no competing vendors for Hillary.  I have seen exactly one yard sign for Hillary.  I'm much more inclined to believe what I see over some poll that has been filtered through a biased news media.  Inflating poll numbers can be seen as a self fulfilling prophesy.  Most people like to back a winner so they are more inclined to vote for the one who already seems to be ahead. 

This first part is hilarious and ironic, and then you say the next sentence in bold. Because I mean who's to say both aren't doing it, or maybe neither hmmmmmm.......? Believe me I'm not their biggest fan either. 

Edited by Nightgale
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10 hours ago, Aftermath said:

I'm curious about what county in Ohio.  I hail from the Buckeye state, SW corner (Clermont county), where it's mostly Rep., however the closer to Cleveland (Cuyahoga county) you get the more Dem. it is.

I'm in NE Ohio and I've only seen Trump signs...not one Hillary yet.

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Interestingly, I've heard a lot of people talk about Hillary, but not seen any signs or other paraphernalia to support her. That she will be elected seems to be an accepted assumption by many.

This could be her undoing, as with the Brexit vote, if people believe her election is inevitable, they may decide they don't need to go vote.

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