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New US Election Probability


HalfAnIdiot

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probability of either to do anything that will help a majority of americans....?

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Clinton wins = politics as usual. However, I'm more comfortable with this than with an unpredictable and uniformed Trump. I think Trump as President is more of a danger to the U.S. and world affairs than Hillary as President.

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yea, either way the oligarchy will continue in its inertia

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This is what is wrong with polls.  Even if they were right (that Clinton is ahead of Trump), these two candidates should be much closer.  This just goes to show how much the MSM fears Trump.  They are the ones running the polls.  Trump has his pluses and minuses but Hilary is the worse candidate that there could ever be.  This is the Brexit gambit all over again.  People are tired of the Establishment.

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Actually, on shear numbers trump and clinton are nowhere near any kind majority among Americans.  The real majority are indpendents and non-participants who have no interest in either party as is reflected in our ridiculously low voter turnout.  When they do vote for either party favor... it is the result of these being the only two 'viable' options based on how the system has been co-opted and rigged by two private organizations that control the election process... neither of which have their names in the constitution.

 

 

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On 8/22/2016 at 3:30 PM, RavenHawk said:

This is what is wrong with polls. 

538 doesn't run polls. He aggregates polls. This eliminates the outliers. His track record is pretty good.

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On 8/22/2016 at 0:57 PM, HalfAnIdiot said:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Who will win the presidency?

  •  
  •  

Chance of winning

 

Hillary Clinton

84.3%

Donald Trump

15.7%

 
 

It was 20% to 80% just now. Moving, but not very fast.

Edited by Daughter of the Nine Moons
Removed extremely large images from quote
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Hillary Clinton does not appear that well to my eye. Too old to be taking on this job, and give 100%.

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1 hour ago, Habitat said:

Hillary Clinton does not appear that well to my eye. Too old to be taking on this job, and give 100%.

Trump's 70 isn't he?

Then again, he's orange.

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1 hour ago, Habitat said:

Hillary Clinton does not appear that well to my eye. Too old to be taking on this job, and give 100%.

Hillary Clinton is 68

Donald Trump is 70

Go figure.

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13 minutes ago, Daughter of the Nine Moons said:

Hillary Clinton is 68

Donald Trump is 70

Go figure.

*raises hand*

Is that  +2 or -2?

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25 minutes ago, Daughter of the Nine Moons said:

Hillary Clinton is 68

Donald Trump is 70

Go figure.

They are both too old, but she doesn't look that robust to me. Will probably die at 101 now I said that !

Edited by Habitat
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posted in error

Edited by Habitat
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On 8/22/2016 at 4:30 PM, RavenHawk said:

This is what is wrong with polls.  Even if they were right (that Clinton is ahead of Trump), these two candidates should be much closer.  This just goes to show how much the MSM fears Trump.  They are the ones running the polls.  Trump has his pluses and minuses but Hilary is the worse candidate that there could ever be.  This is the Brexit gambit all over again.  People are tired of the Establishment.

Why should they be much closer?  You don't see top level democrats going against her, as top level Republicans are going against Trump..

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On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 0:29 PM, StarMountainKid said:

Clinton wins = politics as usual. However, I'm more comfortable with this than with an unpredictable and uniformed Trump. I think Trump as President is more of a danger to the U.S. and world affairs than Hillary as President.

so you like not having a job.

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As to age, some people can be 70 and look fine, while others will appear to be on Death's Door. 

I do wonder why Hillary needs help up stairs and to constantly have a stool around. If she needs them... fine, but don't lie about it and say there is nothing to the story.

If there was video of Trump having trouble going up a set of stairs, I'd feel similarly about his health and his mobility.

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I think both are frightening. One is a power junkie and the other defines a cult of personality. We're so ******.

Who was it that said "Anyone capable of getting themselves elected to POTUS is the last person who should be POTUS."?

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Just think how much money Hillary can bring into the country.   Every news outlet will have to pay her to talk to her.

Oh wait, that goes into her personal account.

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16 hours ago, ninjadude said:

538 doesn't run polls. He aggregates polls. This eliminates the outliers. His track record is pretty good.

Doesn’t matter if *one* runs polls or not.  Someone still provides the numbers.  If the numbers are bad, so will the results.  Our phone rings off the hook all the time now.  We don’t recognize the number so we don’t answer.  I’m pretty sure we aren’t the only ones that ignore these polls and I would guess that the majority that do are Conservatives.  Track records, especially in polls are made to be wrong at one time or another.  This is the year for bad numbers.  The last couple of cycles were pretty much no brainers so I wouldn't put a lot of stock in recent track records.

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14 hours ago, Agent0range said:

Why should they be much closer?

I gave a brief explanation.

 

You don't see top level democrats going against her, as top level Republicans are going against Trump..

That’s right!  And do you know why?  It’s because the Establishment (on both sides) fear Trump.  Having an “R” behind the name means nothing.  They fear losing their power.  That is what the people want.  They are tired of the ruling elite.  The people are revolting against globalization.  It should be the people that are the ruling elite and the politicians should be nothing more than servants.  Washington has a severe case of Munchausen by Proxy Syndrome and requires draconian measures to cut out the poison.  Trump is that scalpel.

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5 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

 

16 hours ago, ninjadude said:

Doesn’t matter if *one* runs polls or not.  Someone still provides the numbers.  If the numbers are bad, so will the results.  Our phone rings off the hook all the time now.  We don’t recognize the number so we don’t answer.  I’m pretty sure we aren’t the only ones that ignore these polls and I would guess that the majority that do are Conservatives.  Track records, especially in polls are made to be wrong at one time or another.  This is the year for bad numbers.  The last couple of cycles were pretty much no brainers so I wouldn't put a lot of stock in recent track records.

538 aggregates some 570 polls. They are weighted by accuracy, size, methodology, and timeliness. Many now include other avenues than landlines because, unlike you, many of us have no landline anymore. I never get cold calls.

link

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1 hour ago, ninjadude said:

538 aggregates some 570 polls. They are weighted by accuracy, size, methodology, and timeliness.

Wow!  You missed the whole point.  The whole thing looses accuracy from the word go.  There is absolutely no confirmation the person at the other end of whatever media is who they are supposed to be nor how serious they take the poll.  Polls assume that every single person is answering honestly.

 

Many now include other avenues than landlines because, unlike you, many of us have no landline anymore. I never get cold calls.

link

Wow!  Who’d have thunk that somebody would use other media?  However, the same thing occurs with all media.  There is no confirmation of who is at the other end and how many times they participate.  A poll is just a snapshot of that moment.  Maybe when the person took the poll they hadn’t heard of Kate Steinle yet.  5 mins later, they read an article and then that forces them to do the research and they discover the truth.

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Clinton's lead halved in new national poll

"Clinton leads Trump by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a head-to-head match-up in the Morning Consult poll released Sunday morning."

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293580-clintons-lead-halved-in-new-national-poll

 

**If she really does have a lead.

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