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Corbyn PM in 2017?


Duke Wellington

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I'm a Tory and you would never ever catch me voting for Labour but despite the media criticism I predict Corbyn will become PM in 2017. Why? Three points:

1. Theresa May doesn't hold a large enough majority to push through article 50 in Parliament. As soon as she tries to activate it there will be a no confidence motion passed against her triggering a General Election.

2. Most of the electorate are working class people on minimum wage or little better. History shows during elections that when it comes down to it finances are the strongest influencer of the way people will vote. Having electricity, railways and other industries reprivatized will lure the majority to vote for Labour as it leaves them with more money in their pockets.

3. The assumption you cannot spend your way out of recession or national debt is inherently flawed. If the extra demand that spending creates results in GDP growing faster than the rate at which the debt does then you win. And everyone has a job too. After 7 years of suppressed demand in the economy due to austerity there is much catching up to do to get GDP levels where they should be. We have a large gap to take advantage off, we could quite literally add 5% to our GDP in a single year if we stopped austerity. If we increased spending on top of that, and calculate the correct level of spending for most impact) we should be able to get 5%-10% GDP growth in a single year with increasing the national debt any near that level.

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When it comes voting for Political parties im the worst kind, the ones politicians hate, im a floating voter, having Voted. Labour, Independent (Local), Tory, & UKIP.

As for Corbyn as PM, or even Labour as a government.

Image result for laughing animated gif

 

My opinion and remember its just that, so don't take it personal.

Firstly Article 50, will be triggered and honoured just like the Referendum result in 1975 to Remain. So, a vote of no confidence you mention is not going to happen. But on a General election.

Theresa May wont call a General election, She as a majority (albeit small) Thanks to fixed term Parliament she and the Tories have clear water till the Next election in 2020. between now and then Brexit has to be negotiated, So i cant see a General election being fought with that back drop, plus all the Remoaners will vote for parties promising them our EU membership will continue. Then we have to factor in the constituent boundary changes (2018) Where Labour will lose 32 Seats and affect a further 170 seats. Labour have lost Scotland to the SNP which they are not getting back any time this side of 2020. And the UK is not going to and Never has voted in a far left Socialist bordering on Communist Government. plus England is Tory.

For those (Tory is Blue)  (Labour Red) (SNP Yellow)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg

On your points 2 & 3

Privatisation, How much is that going to cost the country, Labour can promise it but wont be able to finance it, to take back the railways, and the Utility companies will cost the tax payer tens if not hundreds of Billions. We have to buy the rights premises, networks, workers liabilities, pensions etc..and then compensate the companies on top of that for loss of future earnings. the only way they'll be privatised or under government control is in a national emergency. IE: country on a war footing. 

On point 3, Austerity, we now know with the passing of time austerity was the right path to take, The IMF at the time did not agree, but agreed with the EU model. well, the IMF got it wrong and now admits the British treasury got it right, thanks to that action taken the UK continues to be the fastest growing in the G7 for, 4 consecutive years and it continues today. Obviously you reach a point when you have to change tact and decrease austerity and increase spending (not borrowing) but that's a judgement, and im happy with the British Government making that call. see, one of our biggest failings in this country, is that we always assume we are the worst at everything and everyone else gets it right but on reflection you look around the world and the realise different. I think that is because our media aren't interested in telling us what is really going on elsewhere - i believe that's a big part of why the remoaners lack belief in the UK and why they are so desperate to be ruled from Brussels! because they do it better, which isn't true, But back to austerity, equally you cannot tax yourself out of austerity. so where is the increase spending in money coming from? you state we increase spending without borrowing or increasing the national debt how? - I've highlighted elsewhere on the forum how a proportion of the EU money (£10Bn) could be spent to raise £1.5Tillion by 2030 and pay off the national debt, that would mean austerity could stop totally. and the benefit of spending that £10bn here at home. taxes raised on it etc..  im not sure if that's an avenue you'd agree with or is there another way?

 

 

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I think hell is likely to freeze over first, and that's probably being optimistic...

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24 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

When it comes voting for Political parties im the worst kind, the ones politicians hate, im a floating voter, having Voted. Labour, Independent (Local), Tory, & UKIP.

As for Corbyn as PM, or even Labour as a government.

Image result for laughing animated gif

 

My opinion and remember its just that, so don't take it personal.

Firstly Article 50, will be triggered and honoured just like the Referendum result in 1975 to Remain. So, a vote of no confidence you mention is not going to happen. But on a General election.

Theresa May wont call a General election, She as a majority (albeit small) Thanks to fixed term Parliament she and the Tories have clear water till the Next election in 2020. between now and then Brexit has to be negotiated, So i cant see a General election being fought with that back drop, plus all the Remoaners will vote for parties promising them our EU membership will continue. Then we have to factor in the constituent boundary changes (2018) Where Labour will lose 32 Seats and affect a further 170 seats. Labour have lost Scotland to the SNP which they are not getting back any time this side of 2020. And the UK is not going to and Never has voted in a far left Socialist bordering on Communist Government. plus England is Tory.

For those (Tory is Blue)  (Labour Red) (SNP Yellow)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg

On your points 2 & 3

Privatisation, How much is that going to cost the country, Labour can promise it but wont be able to finance it, to take back the railways, and the Utility companies will cost the tax payer tens if not hundreds of Billions. We have to buy the rights premises, networks, workers liabilities, pensions etc..and then compensate the companies on top of that for loss of future earnings. the only way they'll be privatised or under government control is in a national emergency. IE: country on a war footing. 

On point 3, Austerity, we now know with the passing of time austerity was the right path to take, The IMF at the time did not agree, but agreed with the EU model. well, the IMF got it wrong and now admits the British treasury got it right, thanks to that action taken the UK continues to be the fastest growing in the G7 for, 4 consecutive years and it continues today. Obviously you reach a point when you have to change tact and decrease austerity and increase spending (not borrowing) but that's a judgement, and im happy with the British Government making that call. see, one of our biggest failings in this country, is that we always assume we are the worst at everything and everyone else gets it right but on reflection you look around the world and the realise different. I think that is because our media aren't interested in telling us what is really going on elsewhere - i believe that's a big part of why the remoaners lack belief in the UK and why they are so desperate to be ruled from Brussels! because they do it better, which isn't true, But back to austerity, equally you cannot tax yourself out of austerity. so where is the increase spending in money coming from? you state we increase spending without borrowing or increasing the national debt how? - I've highlighted elsewhere on the forum how a proportion of the EU money (£10Bn) could be spent to raise £1.5Tillion by 2030 and pay off the national debt, that would mean austerity could stop totally. and the benefit of spending that £10bn here at home. taxes raised on it etc..  im not sure if that's an avenue you'd agree with or is there another way?

 

Yes I laugh at this guy too but he will shock us.

What's important isn't how the media portray him or how rival politicians and notable people in society trash talk him. What matters is if he can get enough votes from ordinary working class people. His popularity among them in the Labour Party is very high even if his own MPs hate him. I suspect similar support throughout the working class will actually result in him winning a General Election.

UKIP wont dent his support, if anything UKIP should be repositioning themselves as in between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. Due to Corbyn's anti-austerity stance it will reduce SNP's popularity in Scotland. I'm quite confident he would walk a General Election against all expectations.

 

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Quote

 

When it comes voting for Political parties im the worst kind, the ones politicians hate, im a floating voter, having Voted. Labour, Independent (Local), Tory, & UKIP.

As for Corbyn as PM, or even Labour as a government.

Image result for laughing animated gif

 

My opinion and remember its just that, so don't take it personal.

Firstly Article 50, will be triggered and honoured just like the Referendum result in 1975 to Remain. So, a vote of no confidence you mention is not going to happen. But on a General election.

Theresa May wont call a General election, She as a majority (albeit small) Thanks to fixed term Parliament she and the Tories have clear water till the Next election in 2020. between now and then Brexit has to be negotiated, So i cant see a General election being fought with that back drop, plus all the Remoaners will vote for parties promising them our EU membership will continue. Then we have to factor in the constituent boundary changes (2018) Where Labour will lose 32 Seats and affect a further 170 seats. Labour have lost Scotland to the SNP which they are not getting back any time this side of 2020. And the UK is not going to and Never has voted in a far left Socialist bordering on Communist Government. plus England is Tory.

For those (Tory is Blue)  (Labour Red) (SNP Yellow)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg

 

If labour made a platform of a referendum or a parliamentary vote on the conditions of brexit, I could see them at least making a coalition. Labour is mainstream enough that the vast majority of those who voted remain would back them. It might also win them back Scotland as they backed remain. The leave vote would probably still be split between tories and UKIP. But that's not the position they're going with...


 

Quote

 

On your points 2 & 3

Privatisation, How much is that going to cost the country, Labour can promise it but wont be able to finance it, to take back the railways, and the Utility companies will cost the tax payer tens if not hundreds of Billions. We have to buy the rights premises, networks, workers liabilities, pensions etc..and then compensate the companies on top of that for loss of future earnings. the only way they'll be privatised or under government control is in a national emergency. IE: country on a war footing. 

 

I'm assuming you both mean nationalisation. Privatisation is what we already have. And apparently Corbyn's plan isn't to buy out the contracts but simply not renew them when they expire. Wouldn't cost a penny.

 

 

 

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I think I have more chance of becoming PM than Corbyn.  

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I have traditionally voted labour.  This time around, not a chance!

I have little confidence in any party, but having just witnessed the total and utter chaos that is the Labour Party at the moment I would rather elect Lord such and such, even in his present condition.

added to that, I think Jeremy Corbyn is a decent chap, but ideologically, I think he has his head in the clouds.  No I think the Tories win my vote next general election.

for the record, I do think the whole party politics system needs to be completely reformed.  

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Do you really want J.corbyn as your Prime Minister, the guy looks as if he has just won the raffle at a Jumble Sale,  he is"anti" almost everything and is friends with a certain terrorist group ie:- Hezbollah  . He also wants us to be ruled by Europe, bin our defence forces ,give the Falkland Isles to the Argies . If you want this to happen by all means vote for him and let us become a minor voice in a  Europe ruled by Germany. Rant over  

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Thats what i dont like socialism it takes away your freedom and forces something you dont want or like to do. 

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21 hours ago, Setton said:

If labour made a platform of a referendum or a parliamentary vote on the conditions of brexit, I could see them at least making a coalition. Labour is mainstream enough that the vast majority of those who voted remain would back them. It might also win them back Scotland as they backed remain. The leave vote would probably still be split between tories and UKIP. But that's not the position they're going with...


 

I'm assuming you both mean nationalisation. Privatisation is what we already have. And apparently Corbyn's plan isn't to buy out the contracts but simply not renew them when they expire. Wouldn't cost a penny.

 

 

 

Yep your right setton, Nationalisation. on that point of not renewing the contracts. the Government doesn't own the premises any more, a good example is the Railway, The Government owns the rails but not the trains that run on them, The Companies own all the rolling stock. So even if Labour dont renew the contracts they'd have to buy the rolling stock, its the same with the electricity, National Grid Plc etc.. In my view nationalisation would be a wrong move, we'd be better off having better regulation. and creaming off the taxes raised. profit drives efficiency. 

 

 

 

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Corbyn has no chance whatsoever Labour don't know why they did so bad last time, they're not only offering more of the same they're offering it with a naive fool at it's head.

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3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Yep your right setton, Nationalisation. on that point of not renewing the contracts. the Government doesn't own the premises any more, a good example is the Railway, The Government owns the rails but not the trains that run on them, The Companies own all the rolling stock. So even if Labour dont renew the contracts they'd have to buy the rolling stock, its the same with the electricity, National Grid Plc etc.. In my view nationalisation would be a wrong move, we'd be better off having better regulation. and creaming off the taxes raised. profit drives efficiency. 

That makes sense. I agree a better solution would be just regulating the companies so they can't exploit people and more efficient/effective tax collection.

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