Merc14 Posted March 1, 2017 #1 Share Posted March 1, 2017 In 2002 John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira’s The Emerging Democratic Majority postulated that: the proportion of voters who are non-white, college graduates, professionals, single and working women, Millennials, or infrequent church attenders is increasing, and these voters tend to support Democrats by greater margins than the general population. Conversely, white voters (especially the white working class) are declining in their proportion of the electorate—and these voters increasingly support Republicans.4 Finally, older generational cohorts—who tend to be more conservative and vote Republican by greater margins—are being replaced by the Millennial generation, which proponents say is more progressive than other generations.5 The result, according to many, is “an array of growing demographic groups that have aligned themselves with progressives and swelled their ranks,” leading to an inevitable progressive majority at the ballot box.6 Unlike Democratic dominance in other eras, this one is marked, they argue, by a “more stable ideological plurality.”7 In other words, a “true” progressive coalition is at hand, obviating the need for a big tent party or a more ideologically diverse progressive movement. (from this article http://www.thirdway.org/report/why-demography-does-not-equal-destiny ) That premise seemed to hold true until it reached a high water mark in 2009 when Obama took office with both houses of congress fully in democrat control. Since 2009, however, the democrats have lost 20% of their Senate seats, 25% of their House seats, 45% of their governorships, 53% of their state legislative houses, and finally, in 2016, the White House. Jim Geraghty of National Review ponders some of the reasons here http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445316/demography-not-destiny-democrats-theory-debunked?utm_source=jolt&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Jolt 3/1/2017&utm_term=Jolt but I can boil it down to three key points: Demographic change is not evenly dispersed in states and voting districts throughout the country. Voting behavior is not static. Voters more readily change which party they support than the demography-is-destiny models anticipated. Despite the large change in the demographic composition of the electorate, most voters still do not self-identify as liberals. In fact, liberals remain bronze medalists in the ideological breakdown of the electorate—ever since the question was first asked decades ago. ( http://www.thirdway.org/report/why-demography-does-not-equal-destiny ) A big party needs a big tent which means a party must run candidates who don't line up with the orthodoxy and progressives don't like that, they tend to squeeze those candidates out. The presidential election may have been a fluke but the huge losses in governors and state legislatures speaks volumes for how the progressive agenda is not playing well between the coasts. Democrats are screaming to change the constitution so that the president is elected by popular vote but what they don't understand is the republicans are just one state away from being able to vote for a constitutional convention and how likely is it that they will make that change? If you said "not very" then you would be correct. Worse yet, Trump should be able to get one or two more Justices on the SCOTUS thereby denying the far left that route to change for a generation. The bottom line is the so-called progressive destiny of this country is a long ways away, if ever. Democrats who were counting on the rise of the minority vote should have seen that while minorities may lean left they tend to cluster in certain regions of the country and while the popular vote in those regions swings democrat, no matter how radical the progressive philosophy gets, there are huge swaths of this country that has wholly rejected that philosophy. The good news for the hapless republicans is that the democrats show no sign of recognizing just how bad things have gotten for them and what they need to change to reverse course. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmer77 Posted March 1, 2017 #2 Share Posted March 1, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Merc14 said: The good news for the hapless republicans is that the democrats show no sign of recognizing just how bad things have gotten for them and what they need to change to reverse course. I was wanting to say something about not taking too much away from this election because many voted for Trump solely to keep Clinton out but the quoted line rung so true I had to share this: Oprah for president? Edited March 1, 2017 by Farmer77 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted March 1, 2017 #3 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Farmer77 said: Oprah Realizes You Don't Need Experience to Be President God help us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MstrMsn Posted March 1, 2017 #4 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Farmer77 said: I was wanting to say something about not taking too much away from this election because many voted for Trump solely to keep Clinton out but the quoted line rung so true I had to share this: Oprah for president? If we're going to start having people from talk shows run for president, I would much rather have Ellen... at least she's funny 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark_Grey Posted March 1, 2017 #5 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, MstrMsn said: If we're going to start having people from talk shows run for president, I would much rather have Ellen... at least she's funny With all her business savvy and years of being involved in politics I can see why 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmer77 Posted March 1, 2017 #6 Share Posted March 1, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MstrMsn said: If we're going to start having people from talk shows run for president, I would much rather have Ellen... at least she's funny Id just assume we have no more entertainment personalities near the white house......ever.....ever again. EVER EVER Sorry Ronnie Reagan's voice was running in my head saying "marijuana is probably the most dangerous drug in America today "while I was typing. Edited March 1, 2017 by Farmer77 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merc14 Posted March 1, 2017 Author #7 Share Posted March 1, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Farmer77 said: I was wanting to say something about not taking too much away from this election because many voted for Trump solely to keep Clinton out but the quoted line rung so true I had to share this: Oprah for president? I absolutely agree with you and addressed it in the above with this sentence: Quote The presidential election may have been a fluke but the huge losses in governors and state legislatures speaks volumes for how the progressive agenda is not playing well between the coasts. Democrats are screaming to change the constitution so that the president is elected by popular vote but what they don't understand is the republicans are just one state away from being able to vote for a constitutional convention and how likely is it that they will make that change? This presidential election was an anomaly, IMHO, with many factors in play, including Hillary being a terrible candidate in every way, and so should NOT be taken as an indicator of future elections. That said, the last four elections have devastated the democrat party in the trenches, where the real fights take place, and I see no sign that democrats are even aware of how bad things have gotten for them. Check out this chart illustrating democrat losses since 2009, farmer, it really is a disaster: They have lost 53% of their state legislatures! That is an amazing shift to say the least. Edited March 1, 2017 by Merc14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmer77 Posted March 1, 2017 #8 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Merc14 said: I absolutely agree with you and addressed it in the above with this sentence: This presidential election was an anomaly, IMHO, with many factors in play including Hillary being a terrible candidate in every way and so should NOT be taken as an indicator for future elections. That said, the last four elections have devastated the democrat party in the trenches where the real fights take place and I see no sign that democrats are even aware of how bad things have gotten for them. Check out this chart farmer, it really is a disaster: The numbers in that chart are shocking considering the overall trend in the nation. Comeon man you're not gonna flip out about Oprah ? When I read that part about the dems having no idea how out of touch they are with their failings I almost fell out of my chair laughing because you know If Oprah decides to run she will get the dem nomination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merc14 Posted March 1, 2017 Author #9 Share Posted March 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Farmer77 said: The numbers in that chart are shocking considering the overall trend in the nation. Comeon man you're not gonna flip out about Oprah ? When I read that part about the dems having no idea how out of touch they are with their failings I almost fell out of my chair laughing because you know If Oprah decides to run she will get the dem nomination. I can't get videos to run on this computer, I'll check it out at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmer77 Posted March 1, 2017 #10 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Merc14 said: I can't get videos to run on this computer, I'll check it out at home. HA im psychic! I actually changed the story I linked to so its now a CNN article and not a video, i really prefer to read stories than have them fed to me. Not that theres anything earth shattering beyond now she thinks she could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merc14 Posted March 1, 2017 Author #11 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Farmer77 said: HA im psychic! I actually changed the story I linked to so its now a CNN article and not a video, i really prefer to read stories than have them fed to me. Not that theres anything earth shattering beyond now she thinks she could do it. Can't wait to see her and Biden going at it in the primary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aftermath Posted March 1, 2017 #12 Share Posted March 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, Merc14 said: The good news for the hapless republicans is that the democrats show no sign of recognizing just how bad things have gotten for them and what they need to change to reverse course. It's really a funny state of affairs. The media was trying to gaslight the people, they succeeded in only gaslighting their own... as long as the "left" continues to believe their own media and fake news, a redirection of course won't happen. To quote Anakin Skywalker: "From my point of view, the Jedi are evil!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Liquid Gardens Posted March 1, 2017 #13 Share Posted March 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, Merc14 said: The bottom line is the so-called progressive destiny of this country is a long ways away, if ever. Democrats who were counting on the rise of the minority vote should have seen that while minorities may lean left they tend to cluster in certain regions of the country and while the popular vote in those regions swings democrat, no matter how radical the progressive philosophy gets, there are huge swaths of this country that has wholly rejected that philosophy. The good news for the hapless republicans is that the democrats show no sign of recognizing just how bad things have gotten for them and what they need to change to reverse course. That may well be true, it's a tough one to predict especially after this latest election where 'personality politics' for lack of a better phrase was so prominent, in many cases overriding typical party affiliations. It will be interesting to see over time if there's enough variability in voter behavior/non-adherence to a particular party to offset the naturally declining numbers of older people who typically vote Republican, no matter how extreme the conservatism. It's an odd situation in a way since even though there are large areas of the country that reject 'progressivism', there are a large number of people who do not; shift where the populace resides in this country and things take on a different, potentially opposite, complexion. Can't disagree with the haplessness/cluelessness of the parties though. The Democrats utterly failed in appealing to much beyond their base and trying to beat Trump at his own game by 'appearing tough' (i.e, insulting voters on the other side) entirely backfired. Not that the Republicans behaved much differently, but the numbers went their way and this 'toughness' is a better strategy when battling an incumbent from the opposite party. The only prediction that seems very founded based on the evidence is that it's only a matter of time before Repubs shoot themselves in the foot and the power again shifts to the Dems, who will then crow about the victory of progressivism until they also blow a toe or two off and back we go. If we could only break free of the nonsense surrounding this two party dynamic, if we could ever get politicans to view politics as something other than a zero-sum game and instead cooperate on good ideas and policy no matter which party came up with it, we might be able to arrive at a more palatable version of progressivism that includes, ya know, actual 'progress'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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