Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[bee]

22 minutes ago, Setton said:

Leavers chanting onward ever onward is kind of ironic when you think about it. Given that they're working to undo 40 years of history. 

Perhaps backward ever backward would be more fitting? 

(PS parliament has always been sovereign. Remainers, in my experience of them, have no problem with this. We have a problem with May's dictatorial attitude lately.)

yes 40 years history of eroding the sovereignty of British Parliament  - hence the irony - 

I expect you yourself would try and sabotage the referendum result and Brexit if you could - 

The sovereignty of Setton .....?  

 

[Unusual Tournament]

for wantever reasons an orderly Brexit seems impossible. 

[Unusual Tournament]

5 hours ago, bee said:

yes 40 years history of eroding the sovereignty of British Parliament  - hence the irony - 

I expect you yourself would try and sabotage the referendum result and Brexit if you could - 

The sovereignty of Setton .....?  

 

LOL... the Tories are doing a good enough job of sabotage without the help of anyone else.

[bee]

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

for wantever reasons an orderly Brexit seems impossible. 

Oh you're back are you  

I'm sure Remainers from all political parties will do their best to thwart the referendum result and Brexit -
looks like they are trying to create a window of opportunity to use delaying tactics as their main weapon - ?

Tony Blair and Ken Clarke probably hugged and did a happy dance together last night -
toasting Dominic Grieve and kissing a picture of him as they laughed with delight and plotted the next step --  

 

Edited December 14, 2017 by bee

[Space Commander Travis]

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

for wantever reasons an orderly Brexit seems impossible. 

Oh, where've you been? Still gripped by this gripping saga then?

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, bee said:

Oh you're back are you  

I'm sure Remainers from all political parties will do their best to thwart the referendum result and Brexit -
looks like they are trying to create a window of opportunity to use delaying tactics as their main weapon - ?

Tony Blair and Ken Clarke probably hugged and did a happy dance together last night -
toasting Dominic Grieve and kissing a picture of him as they laughed with delight and plotted the next step --  

 

what a nasty slap in the face this last week has been for the brexiteers, eh bee... nice to think that the Tory party hasn't completely been brainwashed into believing that May's complete capitulation with the Irish border, EU citizen rights and the brexit divorce bill is anything but a farce. and to think all it took was a 72 hour ultimatum from the EU. poor Farage must be having kittens.

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Oh, where've you been? Still gripped by this gripping saga then?

obviously not as much as you. 

[stevewinn]

13 hours ago, bee said:

 

Remainers rejoicing in the Sovereignty of Parliament is kind of ironic when you think about it -

And if only all MPs could be trusted to help the Brexit process and not be actively trying to sabotage it -

But anyway onward ever onward  

 

Remainers need to remember It was one vote on one Bill, this Bill had 300+ amendments, the Govt got beat on three. Parliament was always going to be choppy for govt with no majority - Remainers hoping to soften Brexit shouldn’t bank on this suddenly changing everything in fact The beauty or irony of it all is actions of the remainer MP's potentially make a Hard Brexit more likely. i.e The EU has to offer us a Trade deal that's better than WTO.

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Remainers need to remember It was one vote on one Bill, this Bill had 300+ amendments, the Govt got beat on three. Parliament was always going to be choppy for govt with no majority - Remainers hoping to soften Brexit shouldn’t bank on this suddenly changing everything in fact The beauty or irony of it all is actions of the remainer MP's potentially make a Hard Brexit more likely. i.e The EU has to offer us a Trade deal that's better than WTO.

 

Or to look at it another way, it increases the chances the EU will offer a good deal. Now they know parliament will make the decision (potentially opting for wto) rather than May who has shown herself something of a pushover in negotiations so far. 

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, Setton said:

Or to look at it another way, it increases the chances the EU will offer a good deal. Now they know parliament will make the decision (potentially opting for wto) rather than May who has shown herself something of a pushover in negotiations so far. 

You could be right, there is a chance a slim chance the EU will offer a trade deal with terms better than WTO, but in doing so the EU would be allowing us to have our cake and eating it. such a deal would be pour encourager les autres - a path way for others.

We've already highlighted we have a €90Billion trade deficit with the EU. UK trade with the EU has fallen to less than half, it shows our rising export markets are non-EU, Global. The UK cannot sacrifice our trading surpluses outside of the EU for a EU deal which accounts for less than 46% and gives a €90Bn deficit.

Also if the EU demands ongoing payment for "trade" then that is worse than WTO currently The EU's protectionist Union has EU members paying some of the highest prices on global imports.

EU tariff Average / Max

• 35.4% - 96% on Dairy products.
• 15.7% - 104% on Animal products.
• 10.5% - 157% on Fruit/Vegetables/plants
• 12.8% - 63% Cereals.
• 12% - 26% Fish / Fish products.
• 11.2% - 12% Clothing.
• 4.1% - 17% Footwear.
• 19.6% - 152% Beverages/Tobacco.
• 6.1% - 23% Coffee / Tea.
• 23.6% - 127% Sugar / Confectionery.

As a member of the WTO the UK can register its own tariff rates. im sure we can better those above and its worth remembering we can once again negotiate our own bespoke trade deals with other countries which means many tariffs will be lower again or zero.

 

 

 

[RAyMO]

19 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The EU has to offer us a Trade deal that's better than WTO.

If the best the British negotiating team can get is WTO (or just slightly better) in their negotiations, questions will have to be asked about their competence.

Edited December 15, 2017 by RAyMO

[Space Commander Travis]

Well, the EU Chief (pictured below) seems confident that things are moving forward towards a productive and harmonious conclusion.

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

If the best the British negotiating team can get is WTO (or just slightly better) in their negotiations, questions will have to be asked about their competence.

Exactly if the EU cannot offer anything better than WTO then questions will have to be asked, like why we never left earlier, and wasted time in fruitless negotiations if the EU had no goodies to offer. - more of an indictment of the EU than the UK im sure you'll agree.

 

[RAyMO]

7 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

more of an indictment of the EU than the UK im sure you'll agree.

Nope - I would expect the EU to offer what they see as the best interest of the EU, all things considered, I expect the British to get whats best for the British - the two may or may not be equivalent. If the British don't get a deal up to their expectations then the British negotiators or their political masters have failed.

ETA circa 50 countries have trade deals with the EU. surely none of these would bother if they could get a better or equivalent trade relationship via the WTO

Edited December 15, 2017 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Nope - I would expect the EU to offer what they see as the best interest of the EU, all things considered, I expect the British to get whats best for the British - the two may or may not be equivalent. If the British don't get a deal up to their expectations then the British negotiators or their political masters have failed.

What is the ambition of the EU, what sort of trade deal would they like with the UK single market. proving your point also applies to the EU negotiators.

As it stands the EU has failed to keep the UK part of the EU, They have failed to keep us in the single market, failed to keep us in the Customs Union. Failed to keep the ECJ as the supreme court in the UK, Failed to keep the ECJ in regard to EU citizens living in the UK, Failed to extract €100Billion or the Fact Michel Barnier failed to get the UK to meet all four of his red lines and was overruled by the Commission to force through the next stage of talks, But Remainers don't like to talk about this and the news today is Theresa May got a applauded by other leaders at dinner in Brussels yesterday and its expected that EU leaders will move onto the next stage of talks.

RAyMO when you get time, can you please tell us on here how Brexit is going to impact the EU side. EU budget, what it will mean for the Eurozone etc.. the 14% market share the UK represents (buying EU goods) and especially the impact on individual countries who are our largest trading partners, Just a simply Breakdown will do, Economic problems they'll face, Job losses, trade deficits  etc... 

I think all will agree it will be nice to hear a balanced opinion highlighting Brexit is not a vacuum and certainly is not one sided. 

[RAyMO]

30 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

RAyMO when you get time, can you please tell us on here how Brexit is going to impact the EU side

Steve - this may come as a shock to you - but i don't give a toss as to how it affects the EU. The EU could go tits up for all I care.

I am interested in how it will affect the UK, how it will affect me. The EU negotiators are not negotiating on my behalf, they are negotiating on the behalf of EU citizens. OK technically that will include me but in reality my eu citizenship is merely a nicety.

What matters to me is what the UK negotiators get out of the talks, and I don't believe they, nor we as citizens, should enter any negotiation thinking we are going to handed everything we want because we were recently the 5th, now the 6th and by middle of next year going to be the 7th biggest economy. As I see it, it is the job of the British negotiators to get us a good deal - it is not the job of the EU negotiators necessarily to give us a good deal - to go into negotiations thinking otherwise would negligent on our behalf.

Yes the EU has issues to deal with and you can produce graphs showing the UKs net deficit with the EU and the impact of the annual sub,  but - one of the bigger issues the EU has to grapple with is to discourage other desertions - how much that will enter into their thinking I do not know. It may even completely overrule other considerations.

In other words the UK negotiators will not enter into discussions expecting any favours. Anything they get they will have to work for. What they get and don't get will therefore be down to them.

But I will say this If within 10 years the UK economy is not strong and at least in step with the EU, then the breakup of the UK is the next big change we will see.

Edited December 15, 2017 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

22 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Steve - this may come as a shock to you - but i don't give a toss as to how it affects the EU. The EU could go tits up for all I care.

I am interested in how it will affect the UK, how it will affect me. The EU negotiators are not negotiating on my behalf, they are negotiating on the behalf of EU citizens. OK technically that will include me but in reality my eu citizenship is merely a nicety.

What matters to me is what the UK negotiators get out of the talks, and I don't believe they, nor we as citizens, should enter any negotiation thinking we are going to handed everything we want because we were recently the 5th, now the 6th and by middle of next year going to be the 7th biggest economy. As I see it, it is the job of the British negotiators to get us a good deal - it is not the job of the EU negotiators necessarily to give us a good deal - to go into negotiations thinking otherwise would negligent on our behalf.

Yes the EU has issues to deal with and you can produce graphs showing the UKs net deficit with the EU and the impact of the annual sub,  but - one of the bigger issues the EU has to grapple with is to discourage other desertions - how much that will enter into their thinking I do not know. It may even completely overrule other considerations.

In other words the UK negotiators will not enter into discussions expecting any favours. Anything they get they will have to work for. What they get and don't get will therefore be down to them.

But I will say this If within 10 years UK economy is not strong and at least in step with the EU, then the breakup of the UK is the next big change we will see.

Well you should give a toss as to how it effects the EU especially our largest trade partners. when you look at what they stand to gain or lose makes comparing how each side will enter into and influence the negotiations.

Its no coincidence since the German elections things have moved on a pace. The EU commission's stance is very different to the interest of the different members, people are misguided if they believe Germany is going to sacrifice itself at the alter of the EU Commission. German Car industry for example, 18,000+ thousand German jobs are linked to the UK market. 2 in 5 Cars made in Germany are sold in our market. it represents 7% of their Car exports but 23% of their profit. that's just one example.

Now apply that to multiple sectors and markets, in Italy France Belgium & Ireland, etc... We hear such things as UK aeroplanes wont be able to fly, well 18 million Brits go to club Med every year, 14 million to Spain alone, - well if we follow the logical conclusion that's the Spanish economy going down the pan. more problems for the Euro. How many EU members who matter are going to sit on their hands while the commission negotiates on their behalf. that's why the mantra from the EU leaders is unity/ united. etc.. now were entering the second phase their unity will be tested.

Bit of good News. im sure it will stick in the throat of the remainers. or be twisted into UK weak. EU strong.

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by stevewinn

[stevewinn]

I dont watch QT anymore. but my mum asked if i seen the man on it last night - with the power of the internet i have know seen the clip.

Is he and the audience representative of the feelings held. If they are and its country wide this political class are in trouble. 

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by stevewinn

[RAyMO]

7 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Bit of good News. im sure it will stick in the throat of the remainers. or be twisted into UK weak. EU strong

Not in the slightest - I said several posts ago I fully expect we will leave - in some shape or manner. That being the case its best to move on.

That being the case I also want the UK to get the best deal possible. albeit, the nearer it is to what we have now the better in my perspective.

Perhaps it is the congratulations to May you are referring to. Completely indifferent to that, as I would be if Corbyn or Blair or Cameron or Varadkar were to get congratulated on something by Tusk or any other politician for that matter. 

As for the video - I guess different groups of people in different places will have differing perspectives on Brexit. He wouldn't for example get a round of applause in my area. But the referendum didn't allow for geographical or national differences to be respected so we are were we are. For better or for worse.

[stevewinn]

34 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Not in the slightest - I said several posts ago I fully expect we will leave - in some shape or manner. That being the case its best to move on.

That being the case I also want the UK to get the best deal possible. albeit, the nearer it is to what we have now the better in my perspective.

Perhaps it is the congratulations to May you are referring to. Completely indifferent to that, as I would be if Corbyn or Blair or Cameron or Varadkar were to get congratulated on something by Tusk or any other politician for that matter. 

As for the video - I guess different groups of people in different places will have differing perspectives on Brexit. He wouldn't for example get a round of applause in my area. But the referendum didn't allow for geographical or national differences to be respected so we are were we are. For better or for worse.

I think your wise to expect we'll be leaving, after all, when the govt was defeated on the amendment some, i say some went into joyous praise thinking, wrongly thinking Brexit can be stopped, what seemed to be lost in it all was In the exact same Bill the most important vote of all the one to approve Clause 1 which repeals the 1972 European Communities Act, was passed by 318 to 68. Under the Lisbon Treaty Article 50 makes clear we will leave automatically on 29/3/19, 2 years from when our letter was accepted. - with that in mind - The next defeat the Govt is expected to suffer is the amendment on the Bill for the leave date to be enshrined in Law. it should not matter a jot, but its symbolic for the remain MP's for if the Bill gets passed and the leave date is enshrined into Law then Its over for them. - It'll be interesting to see just how those MP's vote. as a vote against is nothing more than trying to circumvent Brexit plain and simple they cannot hide behind Parliamentary Sovereignty like they did last time.

Edited December 15, 2017 by stevewinn

[Space Commander Travis]

In related news, er, Fixit?

HELSINKI (Reuters) - Finland will leave the European Union and position itself as the Switzerland of the north to protect its independence if Laura Huhtasaari, the presidential candidate of the eurosceptic Finns Party has her way.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-eurosceptics/presidential-hopeful-wants-finland-out-of-eu-says-nationalists-will-bounce-back-idUSKBN1E722V

 

[stevewinn]

25 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

In related news, er, Fixit?

HELSINKI (Reuters) - Finland will leave the European Union and position itself as the Switzerland of the north to protect its independence if Laura Huhtasaari, the presidential candidate of the eurosceptic Finns Party has her way.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-eurosceptics/presidential-hopeful-wants-finland-out-of-eu-says-nationalists-will-bounce-back-idUSKBN1E722V

 

The rise of Anti-EU parties within member states tells a story the EU does not want to hear and brings to question that all is not well within the EU itself. There seems to be a disconnect between the bureaucrats running the EU and the people they are in office to represent. But then again, The EU Commission's sole purpose and allegiance is to not their country but the EU itself.

Italy is set to have elections early next year and Anti-EU parties are gathering support, talk just wont go away from Italy leaving the Euro and then we have the Austrian govt now in coalition with the Anti-EU Freedom party.

EU taking the Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic to the Unions own court, which is a political court over not accepting Germany's problem. i.e not accepting the migrant quotas. 

how to win hearts and minds.

[hetrodoxly]

22 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I dont watch QT anymore. but my mum asked if i seen the man on it last night - with the power of the internet i have know seen the clip.

Is he and the audience representative of the feelings held. If they are and its country wide this political class are in trouble. 

 

I caught this on thursday night it was priceless to see the look on the faces of the moaners and Appeasing cuckoos.

[Black Monk]

On 14/12/2017 at 8:39 AM, bee said:

Oh you're back are you  

I'm sure Remainers from all political parties will do their best to thwart the referendum result and Brexit -
looks like they are trying to create a window of opportunity to use delaying tactics as their main weapon - ?

Tony Blair and Ken Clarke probably hugged and did a happy dance together last night -
toasting Dominic Grieve and kissing a picture of him as they laughed with delight and plotted the next step --  

 

I'm surprised old Ken stayed awake long enough to vote.

But considering that it was only a narrow victory for the Remoaners - 309-305 - I think the vote should be taken again.

Edited December 16, 2017 by Black Monk

[Black Monk]

On 09/12/2017 at 11:41 PM, Setton said:

Should probably have included the phrase 'in theory' somewhere in there :-P

Which is not our system. Which is why the referendum is not legally binding.