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What Happens if N Korea Does Use Nukes?

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On 4/22/2017 at 7:31 AM, Hi-NRG Eurobeat Man said:

If the improbable happened and Kim Jong-un was actually stupid enough to lob a nuke at the US, North Korea would become a nuclear wasteland whether surrounding countries like it or not. The concern of civilian casualties would most likely be non-existent.

If such a thing ever does happen, let's hope that it hits someplace in remote Alaska or off the coast of Hawaii. So then we could make a clean invasion and make North Korea and South Korea whole again. 

It would depend on the ability for North Korea to produce guidance systems for their ballistic missiles. Given that they have had mixed success with their missile launches, it's fair to say that they may not have reached that point where they have developed reliable and accurate guidance systems. 

Most North Korean missiles are realistically going to be lobbed at South Korea and Japan and both of those countries have means of defending themselves from such attacks. The most potent threat that North Korea possesses is actually in its conventional arms, namely the thousands of artillery pieces and multiple rocket launcher systems that would devastate massive parts of Seoul within minutes of war being declared, assuming North Korea doesn't suddenly just open up along the entire DMZ without warning. 

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Lol, yes, Kim is certainly a nutter.

If you drink a beer outside of a public holiday, firing squad, same goes for watching a movie from the US, (only propaganda stations are allowed there) and same for going online, unless you are a gov, official.

I agree that if he does get one through and New York, gets clobbered, then N, korea, will turn from a fertile land to Hiroshima, but on a large scale.

But remember Suddiam Hussian, crapped on about a nightly sword, to wipe away our enemy's, and in the end, nothing happened and they found him, by accident in a hole in the ground.

 

Kim will not back down, for Trump or anyone, he sees it as national pride, and looking strong in front of his generals and people.

A propaganda book from N Korea, said something similar to this for their missile program.

 

So, the UN can impose what they like, and it won't make any difference, and in the end since the US, cannot allow this to continue as in 3 to 5 years when they really can reach New York, the stakes will be higher, beyond that more missiles more targets and harder to guarantee the American people that they are safe.

 

Trump will go after him before reelection will come up, and do it on a massive scale, unless Kim caves in, lol, or maybe a Bay of pigs might work this time?

B)

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On 4/29/2017 at 6:02 AM, MordorOrc said:

The most potent threat that North Korea possesses is actually in its conventional arms, namely the thousands of artillery pieces and multiple rocket launcher systems that would devastate massive parts of Seoul within minutes of war being declared, assuming North Korea doesn't suddenly just open up along the entire DMZ without warning. 

 

As of today, I'd agree.  And with 25 million people crammed together in one city, it would be the ultimate "target rich environment".  The problem long term is that he seems to have enough capable scientists to eventually overcome the technical deficiencies. I think they've already managed to place a roughly 440 lb satellite into a stable orbit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmyŏngsŏng-4

 Of course, unless they decided to create an emp weapon and detonate it over the US, they still would need to work out re-entry and targeting.  It is also possible that he would place one, or several, of his nukes on trucks and just roll them as close to Seoul as possible and when any hostilities broke out, boom.  I think that if he's given much more time, the slaughter in Seoul will be far worse.  35 miles is not so far to carry a warhead and once they can be mated reliably to SCUDs, accuracy wouldn't be as important.  I doubt Seoul is shielded from the effects of an airburst nuke.  

China has allowed this situation to be a boil on our neck for long enough.  If they are willing to let it ratchet up to the point of nuclear war then they should be told that South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will all be offered forward basing of nuclear-capable cruise missiles for their protection in case the guy decides to use one of his.  If the Chinese generals don't believe Trump will do what he says then they'll ignore him and keep chattering on and on about the US returning to the 6 party talks or some new iteration of the kind.  Short of China demanding it with a threat of force behind their words, he will never give up his shiniest toy.  He might not do so even then.  This is what happens when we keep putting off a deadly job that we knew had to be done, eventually.  Eventually got here way too quick, apparently.

 

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N. Korea warns of nuclear test 'at any time' 

Well this will be an interesting moment if he does do it. 

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The more I think of the potential devastation in the Koreas, the angrier I get with the Chinese.  They have kept this regime alive for many years and they've done it solely to be a hedge against aggression from the US in their south.  That is understandable until you factor in the economic changes and trade between the US and China.  The possibility of aggression has decreased to near zero unless the Chinese themselves decided to wage a war.

Now, there seems to be a very real possibility that hundreds of thousand, even millions, might die.  Add to that unspeakable human carnage and suffering the loss for an indeterminate period, of the 5th largest global export economy.  All because of the ambitions of one crime family that was allowed to become firmly entrenched and out of touch with reality.  It's sickening.  The Norks are talking about speeding up their testing, including another nuke detonation.  Unlike the Trump haters here, I don't doubt the man's sanity or his savvy.  He isn't going to just jump into a conflict that could kill so many and do such lasting damage.  His generals are fully in the loop and though he'll have the final decision, he will listen to them.  

I saw an interesting exchange between a couple of former military officers, an Airforce general, and an Army colonel, on Fox news yesterday.  The general painted a very clear, concise picture of how air power would quickly defang the north's artillery and allow the conflict to end as early as possible with the least damage to Seoul.  The whole time he was speaking on the split screen, the colonel was shaking his head.  That is a rarity for Fox.  Normally these military types tend toward agreement.  The colonel picked the general's assessment apart and I thought, did a very good job of explaining the realities of an army on the ground during such fighting.  He was very much against open fighting so close to Seoul.  He kept saying that all the simulations he'd seen (no way to know how current they were) agreed that there would be an approximately 6 minute window from the time the POTUS gave the go until the first explosions began down range in the north.  He agreed that the north would be decimated and that it would happen relatively quickly but he said the damage to Seoul would be catastrophic and potentially even worse if the Norks got off a nuke.  

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13 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

N. Korea warns of nuclear test 'at any time' 

Well this will be an interesting moment if he does do it. 

 

I think Trump will let it pass for the time being.  He will probably be on the phone with Xi, if he isn't already, and reminding him that what Pence said about "strategic patience" was quite true and a decision would be made soon.  This all comes down to brinkmanship and I hope Xi understood that Trump is NOT Obama.  Add all the political chaos going on in the SK presidency right now and this is a train wreck waiting to happen.  Hell, if the SK protesters really want the US out, maybe they should just surrender to Kim.  Imagine that for a moment.  He couldn't allow his troops to go into the south and see what the world is really like.  That would actually be as deadly for his regime as starting a war.

 

 

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Just now, and then said:

I think Trump will let it pass for the time being.

IDK he's gonna need something to change the narrative from his weird ass interviews today. 

 

Just now, and then said:

ll, if the SK protesters really want the US out, maybe they should just surrender to Kim.  Imagine that for a moment.  He couldn't allow his troops to go into the south and see what the world is really like.  That would actually be as deadly for his regime as starting a war.

 

Thats a helluva thought. Basically Kim has to destroy Seoul if he wants to invade otherwise it wont be long before his army starts looking around and realizing theyve been duped. 

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I think another test will backfire badly and convince China to ratchet up the pressure from their side. Trump's immediate goal has always been bringing China on board anyway. It is brinksmanship but it might pay off. I don't think Trump is irrational or unintelligent, and I think he has a strategy, raise the stakes just high enough to convince China that NK is more trouble than it's worth, but not so high to actually cause a conflict. sure it has risks, and you could argue it would be better to just continue waiting out NK, but what he's trying might work. 

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Posted (edited)

On ‎4‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 2:01 PM, spartan max2 said:

Supposedly we have missile defense systems that are suppose to be able to shoot misses down before they hit us.

Lucky we have never had to put them to the test though 

We`ve got the missile defense system, but the only problem in the past tests, only one out of four missiles hits the target :( I see the other day we shot off a missile to up grade the testing .

The only other problem, also  we don't know  if any of these missiles that NK will shoot off are nuclear, they are suppose to shoot off one Wednesday of this week.  

Edited by docyabut2

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, docyabut2 said:

We`ve got the missile defense system, but the only problem in the past tests, only one out of four missiles hits the target :( I see the other day we shot off a missile to up grade the testing .

During early testing, the numbers improved throughout development on both systems

 

Edited by Merc14
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On 5/2/2017 at 5:59 AM, and then said:

The problem long term is that he seems to have enough capable scientists to eventually overcome the technical deficiencies. I think they've already managed to place a roughly 440 lb satellite into a stable orbit.

Satellites are not warheads. It's one thing to get something into space, it's another to be able to construct something to withstand the friction of reentry and have capable guidance systems. Given North Korea has just managed one-way space travel, we can be assured that they as of yet do not have the means to strike the US (or at least places outside of Guam). 

Quote

Of course, unless they decided to create an emp weapon and detonate it over the US, they still would need to work out re-entry and targeting.

North Korea doesn't have the technological know-how to create an EMP weapon given they couldn't built new missiles without Chinese technological assistance. Remember, their entire ballistic missile program started from reverse engineering Scud missiles. 

Quote

 I doubt Seoul is shielded from the effects of an airburst nuke.  

That's what THAAD is for: to keep the destruction of Seoul to just conventional weaponry. At least after it's been hit by tens of thousands of high explosive rounds of varying calibres, it's still habitable. 

Quote

China has allowed this situation to be a boil on our neck for long enough.

And the Chinese know this. They have a lot resting on the Kim regime and they know that said regime is also dependent on China for it's very support. All the Chinese are waiting for is the right opportunity to be the "Knight in Shining Armour" and convince Pyongyang to come to talks. Of course, China would also demand concessions from the US, like removing THAAD from South Korea. 

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Posted (edited)

Quote

 

13 hours ago, MordorOrc said:

Satellites are not warheads. It's one thing to get something into space, it's another to be able to construct something to withstand the friction of reentry and have capable guidance systems. Given North Korea has just managed one-way space travel, we can be assured that they as of yet do not have the means to strike the US (or at least places outside of Guam). 

North Korea doesn't have the technological know-how to create an EMP weapon given they couldn't built new missiles without Chinese technological assistance. Remember, their entire ballistic missile program started from reverse engineering Scud missiles. 

That's what THAAD is for: to keep the destruction of Seoul to just conventional weaponry. At least after it's been hit by tens of thousands of high explosive rounds of varying calibres, it's still habitable. 

And the Chinese know this. They have a lot resting on the Kim regime and they know that said regime is also dependent on China for it's very support. All the Chinese are waiting for is the right opportunity to be the "Knight in Shining Armour" and convince Pyongyang to come to talks. Of course, China would also demand concessions from the US, like removing THAAD from South Korea. 

NK does not have space missiles, but Iran does:( and they share the technology.

 

Edited by docyabut2

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North Korea and Iran don't share technology as often as you might think. There was some military trading back in the 1980's but for the most part Iranian missiles are based on their own reverse-engineered Scud missiles plus ones they received from North Korea. The North Koreans also have civilian space rockets and managed to achieve their first successful launch and satellite orbit in 2012. Iran managed their first successful orbit launch in 2009. Both civilian space rockets are based on military ballistic missiles. 

 

 

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On 5/3/2017 at 5:56 AM, MordorOrc said:

withstand the friction of reentry and have capable guidance systems

You actually quoted me when I mentioned this.  "Re-entry and targeting"  And EMP happens during any nuke detonation.  The point is that they aren't there YET but in time they will be.

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On ‎5‎/‎4‎/‎2017 at 5:42 AM, MordorOrc said:

North Korea and Iran don't share technology as often as you might think. There was some military trading back in the 1980's but for the most part Iranian missiles are based on their own reverse-engineered Scud missiles plus ones they received from North Korea. The North Koreans also have civilian space rockets and managed to achieve their first successful launch and satellite orbit in 2012. Iran managed their first successful orbit launch in 2009. Both civilian space rockets are based on military ballistic missiles. 

 

 

They just had meetings recently :(

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/group-iranian-north-korean-officials-worked-on-nuclear-warhead/

 

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:huh:

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I'm not entirely sure a conservative outlet is really a good source on information regarding Iran since Republicans generally have been against any form of deal with Iran. Oddly enough, belligerence against Iran would be the biggest reason for them to develop nuclear weapons. Hell, North Korea has a perceived idea of American belligerence and that paranoia is one of the reasons why it has a nuclear program (well that and apparently the government thinks it's cheaper). 

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