Car Ownership to be down 80% by 2030

[+OverSword]

Quote

A historic revolution in transportation will end over 100 years of individual vehicle ownership and reshape the world’s energy economy in the process. That’s according to a groundbreaking new research report, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.

Assuming existing technologies and using well-established cost curves, the report, produced by RethinkX, an independent research group, provides a detailed analysis of data, market, consumer and regulatory dynamics.

Link

[StarMountainKid]

I hope not. I think most people have an emotional attachment to their own vehicles. I live near a small town away from everything. What would I do, call for a autonomous vehicle, wait until it gets here, the let it drive me to the store? I guess. How inconvenient is that when I can now just jump in my car and go?

In a small town, how many AEV's would be available at any moment? Who's going to pay for all these vehicles, about 200 million of them by 2030 according to the OP's post?

[FLOMBIE]

I hop this becomes true. Cars are a nuisance, but a necessity. 

[Space Commander Travis]

You know, people will probably react in horror and outrage, but this is the kind of thing I've often thought wouldn't it be lovely; anyone who doesn't want to drive wouldn't have to (which means the vast majority of commuters, people going to the supermarket and taking their kids to school etc), while the only people who do own cars are those who want to; the genuine enthusiasts, those who understand cars and know how to drive them (and even *shock* maintain them themselves). When they, effectively, stop being merely a piece of essential consumer goods like a washing machine and become, essentially, a thing for enthusiasts again. 

[StarMountainKid]

I'm a genuine enthusiast, the government is not going to take away my '79 BMW nor would they have taken all the sports cars I've owned in my life.

I live in Tennessee, and I know no one is going to take anyone's pickup truck from them around here!

[+OverSword]

16 minutes ago, StarMountainKid said:

I hope not. I think most people have an emotional attachment to their own vehicles. I live near a small town away from everything. What would I do, call for a autonomous vehicle, wait until it gets here, the let it drive me to the store? I guess. How inconvenient is that when I can now just jump in my car and go?

In a small town, how many AEV's would be available at any moment? Who's going to pay for all these vehicles, about 200 million of them by 2030 according to the OP's post?

Obviously for those that live in isolated areas owning a car will remain a necessity for a while but for those that live in and near big cities this will just make sense.

[+OverSword]

1 minute ago, StarMountainKid said:

I'm a genuine enthusiast, the government is not going to take away my '79 BMW nor would they have taken all the sports cars I've owned in my life.

I live in Tennessee, and I know no one is going to take anyone's pickup truck from them around here!

But as more and more autonomous vehicles are on the road it will become illegal for you to drive on public roads because a driver that is not part of the network will be deemed a danger and a nuisance.

[Dark_Grey]

13 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

You know, people will probably react in horror and outrage, but this is the kind of thing I've often thought wouldn't it be lovely; anyone who doesn't want to drive wouldn't have to (which means the vast majority of commuters, people going to the supermarket and taking their kids to school etc), while the only people who do own cars are those who want to; the genuine enthusiasts, those who understand cars and know how to drive them (and even *shock* maintain them themselves). When they, effectively, stop being merely a piece of essential consumer goods like a washing machine and become, essentially, a thing for enthusiasts again. 

I can't even imagine the insurance premiums gear-heads will have to pay for the "privilege" of driving their own cars

[StarMountainKid]

Just now, OverSword said:

But as more and more autonomous vehicles are on the road it will become illegal for you to drive on public roads because a driver that is not part of the network will be deemed a danger and a nuisance.

Well, I probably won't live to see 2030, so suppose I'll miss all that fun.

[Space Commander Travis]

3 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

I can't even imagine the insurance premiums gear-heads will have to pay for the "privilege" of driving their own cars

I'm envisaging, or envisioning, that this would be under classic insurance policies with insurance companies dedicated to classic cars (which already exist now) and who understand that such drivers are probably a lot safer than the great mass of people who only drove because they had to and understood anything about their cars no more than they did their microwave.

[StarMountainKid]

What are the millionaires with their Ferrari's and Lamborghini's ever going to do?!

[StarMountainKid]

Young guys will be re-programming their AEV's for more speed and illegally street racing them while robot cops try to chase them down!

[Michelle]

Are delivery charges on goods going to be eliminated too? I often borrow my husband's service truck to pick up things like mulch and plants for the garden or wood for DIY projects. I especially don't like someone else picking out the 2x4's or 2x6's if I'm building something. Been there done that. Twice, I had to send back warped wood with huge knot holes in them.

We live in a suburb, a couple of miles outside of the city, and delivery fees are outrageous. 

[Dark_Grey]

11 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I'm envisaging, or envisioning, that this would be under classic insurance policies with insurance companies dedicated to classic cars (which already exist now) and who understand that such drivers are probably a lot safer than the great mass of people who only drove because they had to and understood anything about their cars no more than they did their microwave.

Do you think that, like classic car insurance, "manual operator" insurance will be limited to a certain mileage per year?

[Michelle]

1 minute ago, Dark_Grey said:

Do you think that, like classic car insurance, "manual operator" insurance will be limited to a certain mileage per year?

That would work for me. My '92 Isuzu hit 55,000 miles last week. 

[+OverSword]

51 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I'm envisaging, or envisioning, that this would be under classic insurance policies with insurance companies dedicated to classic cars (which already exist now) and who understand that such drivers are probably a lot safer than the great mass of people who only drove because they had to and understood anything about their cars no more than they did their microwave.

The liability rates would probably be too expensive to make it worth keeping the car unless you're uber rich

47 minutes ago, StarMountainKid said:

What are the millionaires with their Ferrari's and Lamborghini's ever going to do?!

They will probably get rid of them and instead of using the publicly available vehicles own their own ultra luxurious private self driving cars. 

[Space Commander Travis]

9 hours ago, Dark_Grey said:

Do you think that, like classic car insurance, "manual operator" insurance will be limited to a certain mileage per year?

Perhaps for people living in urban areas, but as people have remarked, if you live on a farm 50 miles from the nearest town I doubt even Google's self-driving techmology will reach that far, so i think there'll always be a need for manually operated cars.

[Michelle]

On 5/8/2017 at 4:12 PM, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I'm envisaging, or envisioning, that this would be under classic insurance policies with insurance companies dedicated to classic cars (which already exist now) and who understand that such drivers are probably a lot safer than the great mass of people who only drove because they had to and understood anything about their cars no more than they did their microwave.

I do have to somewhat disagree with this. I had a classic '78 Z-28 Camaro from the age of 17 until last year. I loved that car and did all of the maintenance on it myself cuz I wuz poor. Replaced everything except rebuilding the transmission. Now, because I have somewhat of a weenie vehicle that gets better gas mileage, doesn't mean I don't know how to drive.

I can't tell you how many times I heard, "That's a lot of car for such a little girl."  Or, they had one a long time ago. When I asked them why they didn't still have it? "I totalled it." duh

Edited May 10, 2017 by Michelle

[Michelle]

On 5/8/2017 at 4:12 PM, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I'm envisaging, or envisioning, that this would be under classic insurance policies with insurance companies dedicated to classic cars (which already exist now) and who understand that such drivers are probably a lot safer than the great mass of people who only drove because they had to and understood anything about their cars no more than they did their microwave.

I do have to somewhat disagree with this. I had a classic '78 Z-28 Camaro from the age of 17 until last year. I loved that car and did all of the maintenance on it myself cuz I wuz poor. Replaced everything except rebuilding the transmission. Now, because I have somewhat of a weenie vehicle that gets better gas mileage, doesn't mean I don't know how to drive.

I can't tell you how many times I heard, "That's a lot of car for such a little girl."  Or, they had one a long time ago. When I asked them why they didn't still have it? "I totaled it." duh

The rich A$$ I bought the Camaro from totaled his brand new Corvette within a month. 

Edited May 10, 2017 by Michelle

[Michelle]

I don't know why my edit made a new post. Maybe I better stick to cars. 

[aztek]

we already have share car program in nyc, zip cars, cars to go, and prbly others that i'm not aware about, however the price is  more a month as it cost to lease decent  car with insurance.

in brooklyn i pay 5k a year insurance for 2 cars, lease for  my sonata cost me a bit under 300, and wife's bmw, 500.  zip car would cost me 80 a day plus taxes, 

Edited May 19, 2017 by aztek