Partition!!

[RavenHawk]

Will the current ceasefire hold much longer?  Probably not, but the one thing for sure is that when peace does come, the Syria of the past will no longer exist going forward.  We are probably looking at some kind of partition.  The players with claims are Assad, Rebels, Putin, Erdogan, Khamenei, Kurdish leaders, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, Europe, and ISIS.  How much of Syria can Assad hold without perpetual air support from Russia?  He will never be able to rule over the old nation ever again.  There are at least 9 million Sunnis that will never rest while Assad is in power.  Will the new Syria look like the current lines now?  Will the Rebel areas be al-Sham?  Does anyone think that the Kurds will return any territory they have gained or will they create Kurdistan (Rojava)?  Putin is only concerned with Tartus.  He will deal with whoever controls that area.  Erdogan probably wants all he can get, but his concern is with Turkey’s only exterior territory (other than embassies) which is the tomb of Suleyman Shah.  Khamenei wants two things, influence in Sunni territory to attack Saudi Arabia from and a conduit to feed Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel.  Israel will want Assad gone to shutdown that conduit.  Saudi Arabia wants a Pan-Arabian nation and Assad is in the way.  The Gulf States and Europe want a gas pipeline and Assad threatens that.  ISIS will come and go and perhaps even morph into something else.  Salafism isn’t going anywhere.  A total peace isn’t anywhere close.

[+and-then]

9 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Putin is only concerned with Tartus

I disagree on this point.  I think he went in for that objective but he's got bigger plans now.

[RavenHawk]

8 hours ago, and then said:

I disagree on this point.  I think he went in for that objective but he's got bigger plans now.

I don’t know what could be bigger?  We saw to what extent Putin went to to secure Sevastopol.  I don’t think he is thinking global domination but perhaps solidifying his influence in the region to compete with Europe.  He does want to push through his gas pipeline.  And I don’t think that he would go out of his way just to foil US plans (he still might but I wouldn’t consider that as ‘bigger plans’ – it’s more SOP).  Putin is big on interfering in the business of others, but he is becoming a world bore.  He should know that the rest of the world will not put up with that for long.

[+and-then]

23 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

I don’t know what could be bigger?  We saw to what extent Putin went to to secure Sevastopol.  I don’t think he is thinking global domination but perhaps solidifying his influence in the region to compete with Europe.  He does want to push through his gas pipeline.  And I don’t think that he would go out of his way just to foil US plans (he still might but I wouldn’t consider that as ‘bigger plans’ – it’s more SOP).  Putin is big on interfering in the business of others, but he is becoming a world bore.  He should know that the rest of the world will not put up with that for long.

 

I think he sees opportunities to expand his influence in the M.E. and if he plays the cards well, he just might be able to run Syria, Iran and confound Israel somewhat in the bargain.  All of that depends, of course, on how the US president deals with him.

[RavenHawk]

2 hours ago, and then said:

I think he sees opportunities to expand his influence in the M.E. and if he plays the cards well, he just might be able to run Syria, Iran and confound Israel somewhat in the bargain.  All of that depends, of course, on how the US president deals with him.

He would seek influence no matter what the situation is.  If the Rebels could assure him that they could provide better stability and access to Tartus, he would probably drop Assad like a hot rock.  He doesn’t want to get involved with direct administration of Syria and Iran.  That’s not the opportunities he’s looking for.  And with Israel, I think he would like to be Bebe’s buddy.  Putin was just licking his chops as the relationship between us and Israel became more estranged under Obama.  I still think he and Trump will get along real well.  They just have to get through some crisis.