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pallidin

Trump's "Afghanistan" speech

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Surprisingly to myself I found Trump's speech tonight well written and delivered.

Any thoughts?

 

 

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I thought a key secret to success in business was in knowing when you hadn't a hope of making a success of something and knowing when to cut your losses, instead of trying obsessively to persist at something despite knowing that you'll only make more and more losses and haven't a hope of achieving success.  

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I havent yet listened to it but I read the transcripts. 

It sounds like on style he did a great job 

On substance , Im not a fan of doubling down on quagmires nor am I a fan of perpetual war. Not that I have any good answers, I just know "more war" isnt one I like. 

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I liked the changes to the Rules of Engagement but I was hoping he was going to announce a pull out.

Yes, I know what happened in Iraq, but I don't see this war as winnable.

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Well, at least Trump didn't announce his plan so the 'bad guys' can know what's coming.

I'm conflicted, I feel we should either do something that wins it, or just get the hell out. Going on and on and on isn't a good option.

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Unfortunately because he have no military nor foreign policy experience he relies heavily on advisors in these areas, which is logical on the face of it, but will cause him to be steered towards their desires, in this case double down on the current path.

AFghanistan is a backwater with little value on its own. Taliban did not attack America, their guest did, should have pulled out as soon as bin Laden got turned into fish food.  Taliban know that if their guests attack America, it will return to oust them again, that should be enough deterrent. Let them have their rocky wasteland back for now.

Not to say US might not have to go back in eventually if a similar group take hold. B ut staying/fighting perpetually is fruitless.

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Afghanistan is semi-rich in mineral deposit, chiefly copper and assorted rare earth deposits.

Always follow the money. :yes:

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Just now, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Afghanistan is semi-rich in mineral deposit, chiefly copper and assorted rare earth deposits.

Always follow the money. :yes:

Opium  

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1 minute ago, Farmer77 said:

Opium  

LOL forgot about that. We can't be depriving the CIA of their cash cow.

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35 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

I havent yet listened to it but I read the transcripts. 

It sounds like on style he did a great job 

On substance , Im not a fan of doubling down on quagmires nor am I a fan of perpetual war. Not that I have any good answers, I just know "more war" isnt one I like. 

I feel ya. I'd much rather just walk away from Afgan. No one can deny what a mess walking away has done in other countries though. If we just left right now the place would turn into the next Libya.

Its important they accomplish what they hope to and get the Afgan government strong enough to go on its own. I say give em 5 years tops. If it doesn't work, then walk away.

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Posted (edited)

Hmmm.......

Have there ever been cases of terrorist attacks against the US or Europe that where commited by Afghan's ?

The standard narrative is that Osama Bin Laden was sheltered by the Afghan Taliban... however.... was Osama actually involved in the planning and execution of the 9/11 attack ? Was his presence in Afghanistan actually a factor in it ?

He may have authorised it... but...

OK, what I'm getting at is this. If we pulled out of Afghanistan, not just militarily but economically, and stopped all attempts at 'nation building', and allowed the Taliban to re-take the country.... what is the downside for the US and Europe ? What could actually happen ?

 

Edited by RoofGardener
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Just now, RoofGardener said:

what is the downside for the US and Europe ? What could actually happen ?

The extreme cynic in me says a drop in funds for CIA black ops, and all the resultant law enforcement "anti drug" funding  due to loss of control of the poppy fields 

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3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.......

Have there ever been cases of terrorist attacks against the US or Europe that where commited by Afghan's ?

The standard narrative is that Osama Bin Laden was sheltered by the Afghan Taliban... however.... was Osama actually involved in the planning and execution of the 9/11 attack ? Was his presence in Afghanistan actually a factor in it ?

He may have authorised it... but...

OK, what I'm getting at is this. If we pulled out of Afghanistan, not just militarily but economically, and stopped all attempts at 'nation building', and allowed the Taliban to re-take the country.... what is the downside for the US and Europe ? What could actually happen ?

 

90% of operational planning for 9/11 took place in the West or Middle East, Afghanistan had little role other than a refuge for bin Laden

Taliban is not ISIS or al Qaeda, their goals are more provincial

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9 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.......

Have there ever been cases of terrorist attacks against the US or Europe that where commited by Afghan's ?

The standard narrative is that Osama Bin Laden was sheltered by the Afghan Taliban... however.... was Osama actually involved in the planning and execution of the 9/11 attack ? Was his presence in Afghanistan actually a factor in it ?

He may have authorised it... but...

OK, what I'm getting at is this. If we pulled out of Afghanistan, not just militarily but economically, and stopped all attempts at 'nation building', and allowed the Taliban to re-take the country.... what is the downside for the US and Europe ? What could actually happen ?

 

Probably nothing. What we leave the people with there as leaders would be cruel at best though. We should have never went there to begin with. Unfortunately we have.

There would be benefits to having a strong afghan as allies  in the area.

I feel ya though, what a mess.

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4 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I thought a key secret to success in business was in knowing when you hadn't a hope of making a success of something and knowing when to cut your losses, instead of trying obsessively to persist at something despite knowing that you'll only make more and more losses and haven't a hope of achieving success.  

On that basis, shouldn't we close all police departments, and pull out of law enforcement ? :P

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4 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I thought a key secret to success in business was in knowing when you hadn't a hope of making a success of something and knowing when to cut your losses, instead of trying obsessively to persist at something despite knowing that you'll only make more and more losses and haven't a hope of achieving success.  

That may very well prove to be true. I for one am curious how this turns out. Cause personally I don't believe up till today that we ever intended on winning this war.

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Two similar Afghanistan threads?  Ok well I posted this on the other similar thread too
 

Quote


Taliban warns Afghanistan will become 'a graveyard' for the US after Trump clears the way for thousands more American troops to be sent to the war-torn country

    Donald Trump backtracked on original promise to end the 16-year-long conflict
    Trump said an unspecified number of troops would be deployed to 'kill terrorists'
    Taliban dismissed his remarks as 'nothing new' and accused him of 'arrogance'
    British Foreign Secretary Michael Fallon welcomed the president's commitment


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4811574/World-reacts-Trumps-speech-new-Afghanistan-strategy.html#ixzz4qWBVcYeo


 

 

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17 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.......

Have there ever been cases of terrorist attacks against the US or Europe that where commited by Afghan's ?

The standard narrative is that Osama Bin Laden was sheltered by the Afghan Taliban... however.... was Osama actually involved in the planning and execution of the 9/11 attack ? Was his presence in Afghanistan actually a factor in it ?

He may have authorised it... but...

OK, what I'm getting at is this. If we pulled out of Afghanistan, not just militarily but economically, and stopped all attempts at 'nation building', and allowed the Taliban to re-take the country.... what is the downside for the US and Europe ? What could actually happen ?

 

I actually agree with you, on the whole. But think about it though. An operation planned and carried out largely by Saudi nationals, so who is the US going to retaliate against? Some convenient scapegoat, with a hardline regime in control that no one is going to rush to defend.

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10 hours ago, seeder said:

Trump said an unspecified number of troops would be deployed to 'kill terrorists'

You've got to love that, the vaguest war aim ever

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10 hours ago, seeder said:

British Foreign Secretary Michael Fallon welcomed the president's commitment

Well of course Fallon would (is he Foreign secretary now? I thought that was Boris.) Anyway, Fallon, the most idiotically belligerent "Defence" Secretary Britain has ever had has, like Hillary Clinton, never seen a   potential enemy he hasn't jumped up and down waving his sword at. 

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Well, for me, the bombshell in the speech was not Afghanistan (which - I agree - sounds rather vague and whooly), but the harsh critique and veiled threats against Pakistan !

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19 hours ago, The Russian Hare said:

Unfortunately because he have no military nor foreign policy experience he relies heavily on advisors in these areas, which is logical on the face of it, but will cause him to be steered towards their desires, in this case double down on the current path.

AFghanistan is a backwater with little value on its own. Taliban did not attack America, their guest did, should have pulled out as soon as bin Laden got turned into fish food.  Taliban know that if their guests attack America, it will return to oust them again, that should be enough deterrent. Let them have their rocky wasteland back for now.

Not to say US might not have to go back in eventually if a similar group take hold. B ut staying/fighting perpetually is fruitless.

 

I wonder if this latest development is more about the strategic position of Afghanistan -

and this is a way to get a massive presence of US (and any willing allies) soldiers and weapons into the area ?

 

Map of Middle East

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1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Well, for me, the bombshell in the speech was not Afghanistan (which - I agree - sounds rather vague and whooly), but the harsh critique and veiled threats against Pakistan !

If we could believe him (and that's highly provisional), it would be a break from the looking-the-other-way policy of the Big O and the big W, to be sure. 

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Posted (edited)

27 minutes ago, bee said:

 

I wonder if this latest development is more about the strategic position of Afghanistan -

and this is a way to get a massive presence of US (and any willing allies) soldiers and weapons into the area ?

 

Map of Middle East

Isn't Afghanistan part of the OBOR plan? I wonder how China plans to protect its investment.

Edited by Golden Duck

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