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China's space station will crash to Earth

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Posted (edited)

It will be interesting to see the potential crash area shrink. If the orbit is gradually degrading, surely they will get more accurate? 

Melbourne is in the strike zone at the moment. Hopefully the 3 levels of apartment above me are enough!

Is there a good website to track it?

Edit: http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=37820

Hooray, it's currently heading east over NZ. Safe fr the moment. :lol:

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sat_decay.png

sat_perigee.png

sat_apogee.png

Edited by Timonthy
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I wonder if they could snag it with the X-37 and give it a controlled re-entry?

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thats the same thing they say about every space craft deorbiting. please.

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Why are people concerndd about this? Don't you know that paper never refused ink and not to believe what you read in these kind of newspapers.

Very little of any previous space station that fell to earth actually survived re-entry to hit the ground. They all burned up. The Chinese station is about one tenth the size and mass of these others. The chances of any if it impacting earth is small, and the chances of any such fragments that might strike the earth doing damage or injury to people or property is statistically even smaller.

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Time to test anti ballistic missile ! Would be a good test against asteroid to !

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2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

Very little of any previous space station that fell to earth actually survived re-entry to hit the ground. They all burned up.

Not totally true. All Russian/Soviet space stations were deliberately re-enteed over the ocean so that fragments couldn't hit land.

When the US space station, Skylab, made an uncontrolled reentry in 1979 many fragments, including a large oxygen tank, several nitrogen tanks and a food freezer made it to the ground.

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

The chances of any if it impacting earth is small, 

Again not true. There are items on board similar to those that survived the Skylab reentry. It is not just the size that is important but the material the components are made from.

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

and the chances of any such fragments that might strike the earth doing damage or injury to people or property is statistically even smaller.

Finally we are getting somewhere. It is true that it is highly unlikely that any damage or injury will be caused by Tiangong 1, but this is not because none of it will reach the ground. The Earth is mostly covered with water and the majority of land is uninhabited. This is the reason that there is a low chance that there will be damage/injuries... but the chance still remains. 

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Posted (edited)

China owes me a new house, car and swimming pool. Oh and my personal telescope observatory that is partially assembled...And  a big screen tv. And Doctor bills/funeral expenses....

Ok... nothing for the ex wife

Edited by UFOwatcher
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On 11/10/2017 at 3:09 PM, Timonthy said:

It will be interesting to see the potential crash area shrink. If the orbit is gradually degrading, surely they will get more accurate? 

Melbourne is in the strike zone at the moment. Hopefully the 3 levels of apartment above me are enough!

Is there a good website to track it?

Edit: http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=37820

Hooray, it's currently heading east over NZ. Safe fr the moment. :lol:

 Untitled.jpg.2e5a677d9276c7c66e3633473f42d13d.jpg

sat_decay.png

At the moment its altitude is too high to make any predictions about where it will come down; all we can say now is that it will come down somewhere between 43 degrees north of the equator and 43 degrees south of the equator, because it has an orbital inclination of 43 degrees. That means it could land anywhere in Australia or Africa, or most of South America, southern Asia, the southern extremity of Europe, the USA or Central America. Or one of the oceans at those latitudes.

We'll only be able to shrink the landing ellipse when it's on its last few dozen orbits - perhaps a week or less before it finally crashes.

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19 hours ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

I wonder if they could snag it with the X-37 and give it a controlled re-entry?

How?

There's nothing on the X-37 which could be used to dock with the space station. I doubt it has the software to allow it to undertake a docking maneuver.

Also, if the space station is out of control then it may be tumbling as it orbits. Depending on the speed of the tumble that would make it even harder for anything or anyone to dock with it.

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7 hours ago, Peter B said:

How?

There's nothing on the X-37 which could be used to dock with the space station. I doubt it has the software to allow it to undertake a docking maneuver.

Also, if the space station is out of control then it may be tumbling as it orbits. Depending on the speed of the tumble that would make it even harder for anything or anyone to dock with it.

I didn't say anything about docking with it. X-37 has a deployment arm which could be used to snag the station and alter its trajectory a few degrees to ensure a safer descent path.

It has been my contention for awhile that the X-37 secondary mission is to bring space junk into a decaying orbit. It seems that since the X-37 has been deployed there have been more and more objects re-entering the atmosphere. But then that is just my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

I didn't say anything about docking with it. X-37 has a deployment arm which could be used to snag the station and alter its trajectory a few degrees to ensure a safer descent path.

And how is it supposed to use a deployment arm to grab a tumbling, out of control space station which is considerably larger and more massive than it is? The short answer is, "it can't".

But that is irrelevant anyway. It's in the wrong orbit. Even though it is one of the most manoeuvrable satellites it simply doesn't have enough fuel on board to rendezvous with Tiangong 1.

I suppose the other X-37 could be launched into the correct orbit at considerable cost to the US Air Force but it would still be impossible to grab the Tiangong. Besides why should the US Air Force risk a secret and highly expensive space plan?

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

It has been my contention for awhile that the X-37 secondary mission is to bring space junk into a decaying orbit.

Based on what evidence? Once again I'll give you a clue... None at all.

The X-37 is carefully watched by amateur observers. They log every orbit change it makes. On none if it's missions has it made any kind of manoeuvre that would support your wild guess.

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

It seems that since the X-37 has been deployed there have been more and more objects re-entering the atmosphere.

Once again, based on what evidence? Once again the answer is none at all.

Satellites and space debris in LEO reenter every day. They always have. The X-37 has nothing to do with it. 

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

But then that is just my opinion.

Finally, something that makes sense.

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