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A Comet from the Stars? [merged]


bison

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On 11/13/2017 at 4:30 PM, Waspie_Dwarf said:

Tracking the first interstellar asteroid back to its home star

 

Okay...question...silly as it might be.

How can one expect to track such an object back to its origination?  I mean, our Sun changed the trajectory of the object...how many other Stars could have changed the trajectory of that object before it reached our solar system?...think...pin ball.

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42 minutes ago, seanjo said:

I think they are assuming the first star they come to while tracking it back will be its origin system.

Pretty awkward assumption I would think.  What if you were in a different star system where you had just watched it do the same thing and then you observe  it heading toward our Sun? Would you assume our Sun was it's origin?

I guess the question is...how many different star systems has this thing been flung by and how can one know that..or can one?

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9 hours ago, seanjo said:

Not a lot else they can do really; if by some massive coincidence it has visited another solar system before ours then we will never know, BUT, it would be a massive coincidence the Universe is huge and relatively empty.

The Universe isn't really huge. It is infinite! How can you say it is relatively empty when there are trillions of galaxies, each containing billions of stars?   I don't really know anything much about all of this...It just seems illogical to think that it would return to the same star system it came from....that it is being flung off of our Sun...isn't a fluke ...something that hardly ever happens in an eon of time.   It came from another star system right?  All I'm saying is...it could have arrived in that star system from a different star system.

 

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http://www.astrograv.co.uk/ I think this is a more advanced version of the software I used. I created a number of planetary systems and watched them destabilise over a lengthy period of time. In many cases the bodies were thrown out at terrific speeds. While I was thinking of this I once again wondered if we could throw a probe under or over one of Jupiter's poles, back towards and over the Sun, and then up or down towards planet 9 if it exists. I'm thinking of making it move faster but also remembering the sun is a terrifically hot object.

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On 11/17/2017 at 10:17 AM, bison said:

The astronomers are now saying that the hyperbolic object is 30 by 180 meters in diameter. This is based on the variable amount of light it appears to reflect, as it spins. This is a remarkably long, thin object, six times longer than it is wide. The longest, thinest asteroids  belonging to our solar system have length to width ratios less than half this.

I was wondering about that also. So long and skinny. Very weird.

On 11/21/2017 at 2:04 PM, Nzo said:

Cant we just use the suns gravitational pull to sling shot the satellite into hyper speed? Or does that send the satellite back in time to 1986? Either way we win.

That only works if you're in a Klingon Warbird. :lol:

17 hours ago, seanjo said:

I think they are assuming the first star they come to while tracking it back will be its origin system.

Whomever sees it next will judge that it came from our Solar System. B)

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1 hour ago, seanjo said:

We don't know how large the Universe is, but it is really really big, so big that all of the galaxies and all of the stars and planets within are a tiny proportion of the Universe which is mostly made up of space. Encountering another object or system in space is highly improbable, the chances this object has been through another system are very very low.

How can we, at the same time, not know how large the Universe is and know that the stars are a tiny proportion of it?

That is illogical thought process on your behalf.

Furthermore....the Universe is not made up of mostly space.

The Universe is comprised 100% of energy expressed in various forms including what we refer to as space.

You are making assumptions on probabilities.

 

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At first we were told that the length of Oumuamua was 180 meters, and then later, 400 meters. Realizing that the object is a point source, could the estimates of its length have varied so widely, simply due to the interpretation of like data?

Could the orientation of the object's rotation have changed? We're told that the less directly its ends align with Earth, as it spins, the less its reflected light output will vary, and, so, the less elongated it will seem. Could the ends of Oumuamua align with Earth better now, than they did formerly, causing the longer length estimate? If so, what could have caused the plane of its rotation to change? 

Edited by bison
added clarifying words
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6 hours ago, seanjo said:

Because we can observe the portion of the Universe we occupy and extrapolate from there. Stars, planets and debris like comets and asteroids are a tiny tiny part of the Universe compared to the empty expanses in between.

 

Look up, it's mostly empty space.

You must live in the city.  When I look up ...I see the Milky Way....looks like space is fairly well occupied.

Imagine yourself in the Sahara Desert in a glass sphere with a little door, in the middle of a 200 sq mile sandstorm.

Freezeframe the sandstorm...open the little door...with a pair of tweezers, carefully extract one grain of sand from the frozen storm...put it on a tray...resume sandstorm...

....that one grain is not representative of a Star....it represents a Galaxy of which there are trillions and trillions...

When I look up I see billions of stars....in just our Galaxy...just sayin'

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On 11/23/2017 at 8:53 AM, seanjo said:

I just wish they could intercept it and land a probe on it.

It is a probe, my friend. It is not a human probe. Intelligently designed and masterfully built for interstellar travel. Humans are not the only beings with imagination. 

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2 minutes ago, brizink said:

 It doesn't show much signs of being struck by anything, and despite the empty space it makes little sense that this shape has survived so long without being broken down to smaller more uniform ball like parts.

Can you really not see the fault in your logic here?

What exactly is supposed to have broken it up? As for it becoming "uniform ball like parts" I have to ask how exactly?

Rocks in space no more magically change shape without a force acting on them than rocks on Earth do. There is no weather in space to change this asteroids shape, In interstellar space there is the square root of naff all acting on this object.

LARGE rocky objects DO become spherical, a state known as hydrostatic equilibrium. This is a result of the objects own gravity, but even for an icy object it needs to be around 400km in diameter before there is sufficient gravity for this to occur, for a rock object, like `Oumuamua this is nearer 600km. Since the entire asteroid is only 180m long along it's largest axis it is far too small to force the object into a spherical shape. Fragments from a break up would remain irregular in shape for the same reason so your "uniform ball like parts" are a scientific impossibility.

Short of a highly improbable collision, there are few forces acting on this object which could force it to break up, One possibility would be a very fast rotational rate, but it isn't rotating quickly enough. Currently it's a mystery as to how it ended up this shape in the first place, how it has remained that shape isn't.

So it may make little sense to you, but it makes a lot of sense if you understand the science.

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Given the reported rarity of asteroid collisions, we're justified in wondering why we see no very long thin asteroids, which belong to our own solar system. Once formed most of these would presumably retain their shapes indefinitely, instead of being broken up by collisions. An exception might be very fast-rotating asteroids that could eventually spin themselves to pieces. 

 One of the longest and thinnest asteroid we find is said to be Eros, about 34 kilometers long by 11 wide, or just over 3 to 1 aspect ratio. Reputable scientific sources have given the dimensions of Oumuamua as 400 by 40 meters, an aspect ratio of 10 to 1   

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On 10/26/2017 at 9:23 PM, Hammerclaw said:

Bears a curious resemblance to a gravity-assist maneuver.

If so, doesn't seem like we are on the agenda for a rest stop.  Happy Trails.

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On 25.11.2017 at 7:52 PM, brizink said:

It doesn't show much signs of being struck by anything,

And this judgement is based on what image exactly?

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58 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

If so, doesn't seem like we are on the agenda for a rest stop.  Happy Trails.

On the chance that Oumuamua is a  spacecraft, instead of an asteroid, they might be waiting for us to realize this fact before they sent another; one that would linger awhile. It's just possible that they're waiting for us to cooperate, to this extent, in a gradual contact process, rather than doing it all themselves, all at once. 

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BTW:

Quote

As the new object did not fit into any of the existing IAU designation schemes, it was necessary for a new one to be defined. The IAU Minor Planet Center, based at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, is responsible for identifying, designating and computing the orbit for minor planets, comets and outer irregular natural satellites of the major planets. The MPC proposed to the IAU Executive Committee that they adopt a designation scheme similar to the one used for comets and asteroids (characterised by the letters “C” and “A” respectively), using the letter “I” standing for “interstellar”. The IAU Executive Committee approved the proposal in less than 24 hours and the new object is now officially known as 1I/2017 U1.

IAU

 

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20 hours ago, brizink said:

It's in one big friggin price, it's called "stating the obvious"

I'm assuming that's a typo and you mean "piece" not price.

toast asked you the following, legitimate and pertinent question about your claim that the asteroid that, "doesn't show much signs of being struck by anything,"

On 11/26/2017 at 8:17 PM, toast said:

And this judgement is based on what image exactly?

It's interesting that you replied with aggression rather than evidence and logic to back up your claim. Interesting that you totally avoided answering his question. Interesting but not unexpected.

It's not unexpected because there is no evidence or logic to back up your claim. toast asked that question because he understands the significance of it, you replied in that manner because you do not.

The largest, most powerful telescopes in the world can not determine any surface detail on this object. They can determine it's basic shape, it's colour and it rotation rate and that is about it.

Without being able to determine surface details it is impossible to tell whether this is a fragment of a once larger object. It is impossible to tell whether the surface of the asteroid is heavily crater or not. In short it is impossible to tell whether the asteroid shows evidence of being struck by anything or not.

toast asked his question because he knew that there is no image that can justify your claim.

Since your claim is impossible to prove it is, therefore, totally false to claim that you are stating the obvious. You are not, you are stating nothing more than a wild guess.

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf
typos.
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 Below, please find an article giving further information about the interest of the SETI community in Oumuamua.

http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=38844

Edited by bison
content revised in consideration of information previously given.
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1 hour ago, bison said:

 Below, please find an article giving further information about the interest of the SETI community in Oumuamua.

http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=38844

Hell, I like such stuff:

Quote

Besides astronomical observations of this unique object, there is also this remote possibility: That this interloper is an interstellar survey probe, having perhaps dropped down to interplanetary-scale velocities in order to take data during its transit of our solar system, before going on to another star.

 

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If it were such a probe, it might become unobservable  sooner than expected, when it sped up. I check frequently, but haven't found anything, so far, to indicate that Oumuamua has disappeared. Will check again for new observations, or the lack of same.

\Addendum-- Just checked the Minor Planet Circulars. The latest reported observation of Oumuamua is Nov. 20th, eight days ago. That short a hiatus don't necessarily tell us much. Previous gaps between observations  are similar in length. Past observations: Oct. 25, 26,27, 29. Nov. 1, 10, 13, 20.    

Edited by bison
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59 minutes ago, bison said:

If it were such a probe, it might become unobservable  sooner than expected, when it sped up. I check frequently, but haven't found anything, so far, to indicate that Oumuamua has disappeared. Will check again for new observations, or the lack of same.   

Let's assume for a moment that the most unlikely outcome in scientific history turns out to be true and ʻOumuamua turns out to be artificial, surely then you would expect to see some evidence of manoeuvring as the vehicle passed through the solar system. It seems highly unlikely that the vehicle would just allow itself to pass through without taking a look at the most interesting planet in the solar system, the one with technological life. Instead it has passed through following only the laws of Newton and Kepler as it has done so. Odd behaviour for an interstellar spacecraft. Expected behaviour for an interstellar asteroid,

There is of course an other possibility, the builders of this spacecraft don't want us to know that it is artificial. It is pretending to be an asteroid as a form of camouflage. In which case it is not going to start accelerating again until after it is out of reach of our telescopes.

It seems highly unlikely that you are going to see any thing out of the ordinary since the two most logical conclusions for the behaviour of ʻOumuamua so far are that it is a natural object and, in the extraordinarily unlikely event that it isn't, it wants humanity to think it is a natural object.

Finally what do you expect to discover that the experts that are actually tracking this thing can't? Do you really think that all the world's astronomers will miss the first non-human made object ever to make a manoeuvre not consistent with Kepler and Newton? Do you really believe they are all that incompetent?

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf
typos.
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Speaking of SETI interest in Oumuamua, the SETI Institute's Allen Telescope Array is aimed at that mysterious object as I type this. They've concentrated all their observing power into one beam. It's usually three beams pointed at different objects. Link to their website:

http://www.setiquest.org

Edited by bison
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Again, tonight, the Allen Telescope Array is monitoring Oumuamua.  At the moment they're listening around 8.52 Ghz. The position of the object is little changed from last night. The Right Ascension remains the same: 23.30 hours. The Declination has shifted from 6.98 to 7.03 degrees. Both positions are in the constellation Pisces. 

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Oumuamua is under observation again tonight, at the Allen Telescope Array. That's quite a lot of attention it's received lately.  It's apparently deemed at least as worthwhile, as a potential SETI target, as exoplanets, the usual points of interest. 

Position now Right Ascension 23.30 hours, Declination 7.21 degrees.  

Edited by bison
added information, also edited for style
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  • 2 weeks later...

The Breakthrough Listen project will monitor Oumuamua for narrow-band (artificial) radio emissions for 10 hours today, starting at 20 hours GMT, about an hour and a quarter from now. They will listen with the hundred-meter-wide Green Bank Telescope, in West Virginia.

This radio telescope is reportedly sensitive enough to detect a signal of one watt strength, about the same as a mobile phone, from the current distance of Oumuamua.  This amounts to about 7 &1/2 times the sensitivity of the Allen Telescope Array, which the SETI Institute recently used to repeatedly monitor this object.   

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