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Blog o' Tiggs

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Going Viral

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Tiggs

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I've seen a few people who've recently claimed that the current number of Coronavirus cases is nothing to worry about.

But the thing is -- viruses rapidly multiply. It's kind of what they're famous for.

It's where the term "going viral" comes from, after all.
 

Let's take a look at what happens with a virus which doubles every six days. 

If we start with 1 case, then the first month looks like this:

Day 0 = 1
Day 6 = 2
Day 12 = 4
Day 18 = 8
Day 24 = 16
Day 30 = 32 cases

Seems pretty minimal, right?

Let's see what happens if we continue:

Month two:
Day 36 = 64
Day 42 = 128
Day 48 = 256
Day 54 = 512
Day 60 = 1,024 cases

Again -- not too bad.

Month three:
Day 66 = 2,048
Day 72 = 4,096
Day 78 = 8,192
Day 84 = 16,384
Day 90 = 32,768 cases

Starting to get a bit bigger now,

Month four:
Day 96 = 65,536
Day 102 = 131,072 -- we're somewhere here, globally, in terms of number of cases.
Day 108 = 262,144
Day 114 = 524,288
Day 120 = 1,048,576 cases

And we've reached the million mark.

Month five:
Day 126 = 2,097,152
Day 132 = 4,194,304
Day 138 = 8,388,608
Day 144 = 16,777,216
Day 150 = 33,554,432 cases

Which is roughly half of the UK population.

Month six:
Day 156  = 67,108,864
Day 162 =  134,217,728
Day 168 = 268,435,456
Day 174 = 536,870,912
Day 180 = 1,073,741,834 cases

And we're now over a billion.

Month seven:
Day 186 = 2,147,483,668
Day 192 = 4,294,967,336
Day 198 = 8,589,934,672

And since that's more than the population of the entire world -- let's call it there.

Exponential growth is not particularly intuitive, but what seems small now, gets real big, real fast.


You can see the doubling rate of various countries -- including the US and the UK -- here, which goes into a lot more detail. (Source: Forbes)

IMO, the only way to slow this thing down is to quarantine ourselves.

My advice is -- if you can stay inside, stay inside.

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MainerMikeBrown

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Thinking that the coronavirus is nothing to worry about and that the current number of coronavirus cases are also nothing to worry about is irrational.  But you don't want to panic over it either.  Their has to be a balance emotionally.

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