Going Viral
Entry posted by Tiggs
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I've seen a few people who've recently claimed that the current number of Coronavirus cases is nothing to worry about.
But the thing is -- viruses rapidly multiply. It's kind of what they're famous for.
It's where the term "going viral" comes from, after all.
Let's take a look at what happens with a virus which doubles every six days.
If we start with 1 case, then the first month looks like this:
Day 0 = 1
Day 6 = 2
Day 12 = 4
Day 18 = 8
Day 24 = 16
Day 30 = 32 cases
Seems pretty minimal, right?
Let's see what happens if we continue:
Month two:
Day 36 = 64
Day 42 = 128
Day 48 = 256
Day 54 = 512
Day 60 = 1,024 cases
Again -- not too bad.
Month three:
Day 66 = 2,048
Day 72 = 4,096
Day 78 = 8,192
Day 84 = 16,384
Day 90 = 32,768 cases
Starting to get a bit bigger now,
Month four:
Day 96 = 65,536
Day 102 = 131,072 -- we're somewhere here, globally, in terms of number of cases.
Day 108 = 262,144
Day 114 = 524,288
Day 120 = 1,048,576 cases
And we've reached the million mark.
Month five:
Day 126 = 2,097,152
Day 132 = 4,194,304
Day 138 = 8,388,608
Day 144 = 16,777,216
Day 150 = 33,554,432 cases
Which is roughly half of the UK population.
Month six:
Day 156 = 67,108,864
Day 162 = 134,217,728
Day 168 = 268,435,456
Day 174 = 536,870,912
Day 180 = 1,073,741,834 cases
And we're now over a billion.
Month seven:
Day 186 = 2,147,483,668
Day 192 = 4,294,967,336
Day 198 = 8,589,934,672
And since that's more than the population of the entire world -- let's call it there.
Exponential growth is not particularly intuitive, but what seems small now, gets real big, real fast.
You can see the doubling rate of various countries -- including the US and the UK -- here, which goes into a lot more detail. (Source: Forbes)
IMO, the only way to slow this thing down is to quarantine ourselves.
My advice is -- if you can stay inside, stay inside.
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